What's Next

Hard as it may be to swallow, this generation of gaming is entering middle-age. With the Xbox 360 turning three years old later this year, it may be worth remembering that the system was released on only the fifth anniversary of the original Xbox. That probably puts us somewhere close to the dead-center of the 360’s lifespan, and it means that just as the phrase next-gen has stopped describing the 360 or PS3 we should begin to expect the first titillating hints of the next-next-gen in the coming months.

You’ll be forgiven for feeling as though the generational cycle is too short. After all the PS2 remains a semi-viable system, and even now doesn’t feel nearly as dated as the PS1 did at this point in the previous cycle. The laws of diminishing returns seem to be catching up with the videogame console cycle, as it seems increasingly hard to fathom exactly what demands a next-gen round of system could concoct to meet. And yet, I have no doubt that in closed door meetings the question of what do we do next isn’t just being asked, but answered.

Along with all the features we expect from a next-gen system, including technical improvements and our favorite franchises revisited, what else should next-next-gen deliver, and what has it learned from this-next-gen. Here are a few thoughts.

Non-Graphical Advancement – The new frontier for gaming is not in poly-pushing. While it’s safe to assume that an Xbox 3 or PS4 will up the ante on visual whizbangery if out of nothing more than a sense of inertia, the real work to be done will be in advancing the capabilities of the machine to create more interesting and dynamic worlds. From better physics to better AI, the realms that gaming needs to explore to create lifelike worlds is not in the textures but the environment.

From a hardware supported point of view a focus needs to be turned on making it easy to create realistically destructible objects and active environments where NPC seem to act in realistic ways, as though they had their own lives. The real holy grail of world building has far less to do with furthering the already impressive advancements in graphical technology, and more to do with sophistication.

Step Toward The End of Physical Media – While still more than a single generation away, the biggest advancement open to next-gen could be in the way that consoles deliver games. The success of the Xbox Live and Playstation Store for delivering all kinds of content, along with the increasing acceptance of digital distribution should be the biggest indicator that the retail method of game delivery is in jeopardy of being replaced.

Unfortunately, there remain so many problems with the current restrictions and limitations of digital distribution, that next-gen needs to be less about making the leap away from physical media and more about refining the consumer experience. Aside from storage concerns about distributing large AAA console games, which will obviously need to be addressed, creating a system that both protects publishers while offering a relatively hassle-free purchasing and playing experience for customers is the big next step.

Sophisticated Online and Community Environments – It doesn’t necessarily make for great feature list fodder, but I don’t think the success of Xbox Live can be understated. In a gaming environment that is more homogenized, with developers creating cross-platform titles that are virtually indistinguishable from one another, it is a huge feather in Microsoft’s cap to realize that people are making buying decisions based on the ease of staying connected with friends.

We see already in the current generation that often the technological improvements of the PS3 over the 360 are negated by developers who create games that have to work on both systems. So, when you have a game like Grand Theft Auto 4, which, according to one retailer, is selling 70% Xbox 360 to 30% PS3, you have to recognize that part of the disparity is because I, like a lot of people who have both systems, chose the 360 because that’s where it’s easiest to connect online with my friends. On the flip side, one of the most common complaints about the Wii is how obtuse the system is at matchmaking, and that’s a hassle that will continue to become more and more significant.

Affordability – Console makers learned quite suddenly with this generation that there is a price ceiling for a videogame console no matter what format of DVD player comes bundled. The success of the Wii in creating a system that is not significantly advanced, that does not try to be everything in a single box, that is dedicated primarily to improving the gaming experience at half the price cannot be ignored going into the next generation.

Next-gen needs to avoid the mistakes of this-gen and create systems at a single consistent price point that stays at or below $300 at launch. Instead of offering massive and repeated price cuts in the first year of production to stimulate growth, there needs to be a more restrained step into next gen. My fear is that those price cuts will come from lowered quality standards, and along with showing restraint in pricing next-gen I hope that console makers remember the one billion dollars Microsoft had to spend to address the failure rates of the 360.

Ease of development – This goes in tandem with the previous point. Along with being too expensive for consumers, this generation of consoles has been prohibitively expensive to develop for, leaving the consoles with fewer games from fewer developers at the worst times possible. This was particularly problematic in the early days of the generation when systems like the PS3 were already having a tough enough time selling systems.

Again, the Nintendo Wii needs to be part of the model that builds the next generation of consoles, with a system that used familiar development tools allowing cash strapped developers to overcome the hurdles of developing for a new system without breaking the bank.

Console makers are certain to focus on traditional advances in technology when selling their systems, but the real generational strides are not in the traditional avenues. The biggest difference in my gaming experience this generation has more to do with online connectivity, streaming media, the rise of casual gaming and new ways to stay connected to friends. I hope that along with lower priced systems, next generation sees more evolution in the way I play games over what the games look like.

Comments

The future of gaming can be summed up in one word: Phantom. Boo yeah!

Running Man wrote:

The future of gaming can be summed up in one word: Space Hookers. Boo yeah!

That's what I read.

I mean, come on. Space Hookers. Lots of them.

Danjo Olivaw wrote:
Running Man wrote:

The future of gaming can be summed up in one word: Space Hookers. Boo yeah!

That's what I read.

I mean, come on. Space Hookers. Lots of them.

Yeah, but Spacially Transmitted Diseases, man.

I've been on the verge of buyin an Xbox 360 several times, but the questionable reliance held me back every time. A console has to work flawlessly for at least 3 years. If I want hardware problems I'll upgrade my pc!

Hopefully the life cycle continues for some more years along with the reliability and another price cut. I'd buy an Xbox360 with Forza and Mass Effect in a whim.

So mostly I hope Sony, MS and others learn from current-gen mistakes: keep the prices reasonable and make the hardware reliable!

Might I suggest an addendum to this list of things Console makers will have to consider for the next generation?

Library I am obviously out of the mainstream here, but I've been a console owner since the Atari 2600 and I have no interest at all in the current generation of systems.

I considered getting a Wii for a brief spurt at the height of the hype surrounding it, because I have an unfortunate tendency to covet things the market says I can't have. (So CNN says I can't buy a Wii? I'll show them...) After a month of trying to find places that sold the bloody things, I gave up and started putting together a list of games I wanted once I was able to actually buy the system. And I came up with... maybe three titles.

The PS3 doesn't interest me much either, aside from a couple of PS store games that I'd like to try but refuse to shell out $600 for a system to play them. The XBox 360 has never held any interest for me, because of my opinion that Microsoft is the most influential force in flooding video game stores with frat boys who like to hump dead things in Halo multiplayer.

Every system I've ever bought has had at least one must-have title that sold it to me. The 2600 had River Raid and Moonsweeper. The NES had Batman. The Jaguar (yes, and I liked it. Shut up!) had Alien Vs. Predator. The N64 had Goldeneye. The Dreamcast had Soul Calibur and Crazy Taxi. The PS2 had (I'm ashamed to say) Grand Theft Auto 3 and Tekken Tag Tournament. And onward.

I can't even name more than two or three titles for each of the current gen systems off the top of my head, and the ones I can name are such big-name media hogs that even non-gamers know about them, and I'm not interested in those games. Assassin's Creed, Drake Remora: Vigilante Archaeologist (or whatever it's called), Super Mario Galaxy, Bioshock, etc. Don't care, don't care, don't care, and don't care.

I've done some research, perused Metacritic and the like, and I can't find a single game that I'd pay MSRP for, let alone MSRP plus the hundreds of dollars it would cost to get the system it runs on.

You might argue that I'm just not as ardent a gamer as I used to be, but I can't seem to get enough Sins of a Solar Empire and I get at least a few hours of PSP time in per week (Currently playing Killzone Liberation. When I get sick of that, I've got a stack you could build an ottoman with in my queue.) I'm still gaming, I'm just having a harder time finding anything that's worth my money. It's telling that the next game I want to buy is a compilation of old Capcom titles (Reloaded, not that you asked)

If console game companies want my business, they're going to have to get it together on the library. Come on, I'm an easy sell. It only took a few months of constant fawning in the GWJ podcast to get me to play Sins of a Solar Empire, and I'm glad I did. I have low sales resistance. If you can sell one title that makes me think "I must have this game" I'll give serious thought to buying your system.

I'm probably alone in this, since all of the systems are selling to somebody who likes the games. But that's my story and I'll remain adhesively attached to it.

Physical Media versus Downloadable Media is solely dependent upon two elements. First the conservation and reliability of original content; Second the bandwidth to media size ratio that exists as median in the consumer market. Physical media has expanded in size and since Blue Ray shows we can get much more bits on a single disc it can therefore hold a expansive game right out of the box. Plus there isn't as much of a chance of destruction of said media unlike Hard Drive failures and the bricked XBox issues. How irritated would the consumer be if they downloaded 30gb worth of games onto their HDD and their systems fails and has to be repaired? Unless they get the exact same HDD they have lost all those games. There is no physical media to install from or play from. Hence they have to download the content again. Depending on their bandwidth this could take some time. Some may argue that this feature works perfectly well for Steam. My rebuttal to that argument is that the number of tools available to backup data on a computer far outweighs the same methods on a console. In fact would this even be an option with copyright DDR issues progressing into the future.

Until such a time comes where the bandwidth to the home is quick enough to allow the end user to download a game after purchase and also have the ability to backup said purchase locally so that there is no need to have to download over the Internet again, I believe that physical media will still be prevalent.

In regards to the affordability of consoles in the future, expect their costs to rise along with the costs of most computer related hardware. Three factors, I believe from memory of business classes in college, strongly influence the manufacture retail price of manufactured products including in our discussion consoles. Cost of Manufacturing, Distribution of Product and Advertisement.

The Cost of Manufacturing is the big one here as the economy grows more unstable. Having to pay your workers more in whatever country is manufacturing the console and the price of hardware is going up due to rising wages in their respective areas and the rising cost of transportation of good due to rising fuel costs. All these factors will result in a rise to hardware manufacturing companies which then raises the price to distributors and ultimately raises the price to the end consumer. This was in the news recently in the tech sector as Far Eastern chip and circuit plants are raising their prices to accommodate for higher costs. So it's not all that hard to figure out who will pay in the end.

The Distribution of Product has been in a boom due to the success of goods in the world market. FedEx and UPS are just two such examples. However now with the cost of gasoline going through the roof it will cost more and more to deliver goods to the world. I spoke with a trucker not too long ago that delivered some needed supplies to our department. In his big rig he traveled about 1100 miles from pickup to delivery. The total cost in diesel fuel was over $1200! That was two months ago. The cost of diesel has risen from $3.308/gal in Jan 2008 to $4.331/gal this week. An even more drastic look would be to compare the $4.331/gal right now to $2.885 which was the national average for diesel in the 2007 for the US. (Fuel Price Source)

Advertisement. It takes just a little bit of research to realize that the cost of advertising is also going up. Hell just look at how much the current Presidential Campaign has cost. That's just one example.

The conclusion to this is easy to see that the price of consoles will not go down and will not be able to afford to stay at sub $300 prices forever. Eventually it will just not be cost effective any longer regardless of how many consumers can afford it. The whole point is to make a profit after all. Sales - Cost = Profit.

So in the end you have to still get off the couch to put media in your console which is probably good for you so do it. Then you have to pay more for a console in the first place which makes the console even more luxury item which is a bonus to your lifestyle not a necessity. Expendable income is getting more and more scarce for us middle class people so we should save more and spend less and we are getting fat so we should exercise more. That's the moral of the story I suppose.

The rest of the article makes sense to me. Good read.

Edit add: And what the poster below this post says about Library is spot on. The more games that I want to play for a console the more likely I'm going to buy said console. The less games, the less draw there is.

I don't think anyone has suggested it would be anytime soon, mrtomaytohead. Given their jump from the DS to the DS Lite or the GBA to the SP, I don't think a refresh in a couple years is out of the question.

A Wii with a hard drive would a pretty nice update.

doubtingthomas396 wrote:

*stuff*

Welcome to middle age

I gather, also, that next generation [sic] will entail a curious lack of the definite article.

doubtingthomas396 wrote:

I've done some research, perused Metacritic and the like, and I can't find a single game that I'd pay MSRP for, let alone MSRP plus the hundreds of dollars it would cost to get the system it runs on.

You might argue that I'm just not as ardent a gamer as I used to be, but I can't seem to get enough Sins of a Solar Empire and I get at least a few hours of PSP time in per week (Currently playing Killzone Liberation. When I get sick of that, I've got a stack you could build an ottoman with in my queue.) I'm still gaming, I'm just having a harder time finding anything that's worth my money. It's telling that the next game I want to buy is a compilation of old Capcom titles (Reloaded, not that you asked)

I'm in the exact same place right now... I've owned every console since the 2600, but I have had almost no interest at all in the current generation of systems. I DID finally break down and buy a 360 two weeks ago in order to play GTA IV (thanks, tax refund!), but I now find myself not really wanting to go through all the hassle of actually sitting in front of the TV and playing the damn thing. I haven't played GTA IV for the last week at all (that first stupid mission for Manny took 20 minutes to follow a guy, and then I got killed... I had little desire to go through that whole mess again).

I also find myself drawn to playing games almost exclusively on my handhelds... the PSP and the DS both get used for casual gaming and before bedtime gaming (not to mention "throne" gaming).

Gaald wrote:

I don't think we are at the mid point for the 360 or the PS3. I could be way off here but I see another 4-5 years at least for the 360 and if we are to believe Sony another 6-7 for the PS3.

I agree that we are not halfway thru the PS3's life cycle (since it's less than 2 years old), but I think it is fair to say that the 360 is at, or at least near, its midpoint. According to this article from 2007, the next Xbox will launch in 2011. Then there's this article from only a few days ago that refers to an article in the latest Game Informer stating a rumor (for now) that it will be as soon as 2010.

If you assume Nov 2010 (5 years from 360 launch) for the 720 (or whatever they call it), that would put us at exactly halfway thru the 360's lifespan (2 1/2 years). Even if you go with 6 years (2011) for the 360's life, 2 1/2 years is close enough to halfway for me.

Anywho, I mostly agree with all of the points made in this article, especially the part about getting the launch price back down to $300. The thing that I believe is most important for MS is lots of testing of the next Xbox, not only for the sake of preventing gamers from going thru the misery of the RRoD again, but to prevent themselves from having to cough up another billion dollars to save their asses.

I'm hoping that Microsoft will heed the warning about the polypushing death march and concentrate on giving us a console with just a bit more grunt than this one but which crucially:

(a) is a lot quieter;
(b) does not get irrevocable hardware failures in normal use.

Wicked article, plenty of cause for thought and very valid feedback in the comments.

But can I just add one more thing, if the damn hardware is going to fail they need to make a serious improvement to their customer service and the way you are treated when there is a known fault that stops you dead in your tracks.

When we had problems with the original XBOX I was seriously impressed when next day pickup was organised that included delivery of a replacement device - depending on the problem with the original it could be a permanent swop..

However on our 4th 360 we have had to wait for pickup and then repair each time, not fair when the issues are known and often the simplest solution is to simply cut out the middle man and delivery a replacement straight away when the original is picked up..

Pretty please, doesn't seem too much to ask..

trip1eX wrote:

There are bandwidth concerns with digital downloads too. Plus relationships with retailers. And then there's pricing. Anyone going to pay $60 when you can't trade in or resell the game?

Yes, retailers won't be fond of selling hardware with minimal margins while being cut out of software margins. And if broadband bandwidth moves away from the current "all you can eat" model, at least here in the U.S., a lot of what we want to see with online support in future generations won't happen.

RichyRambo wrote:
doubtingthomas396 wrote:

*stuff*

Welcome to middle age ;)

Welcome? I've been middle aged since I was 12.

When I was in my mid twenties, my wife (at the time she was my girlfriend) were going to a movie. There was a ruckus across the street-- people whooping and hollering and laughing, pretty harmless stuff.

I raised an eyebrow and said to my wife "What's with the yelling?"

She replied with one word: "Teenagers."

I grunted, nodded, and that was all. I probably would have told them to get off my lawn if I'd had a lawn.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to go listen to Paul Harvey and make dinner reservations at Denny's for 4:00PM.

"...don’t think the success of Xbox Live can be understated." Ah, overstated instead, perhaps?

DudleySmith wrote:

I'm hoping that Microsoft will heed the warning about the polypushing death march and concentrate on giving us a console with just a bit more grunt than this one but which crucially:

(a) is a lot quieter;
(b) does not get irrevocable hardware failures in normal use.

I think they'll test the next one to death. Hopefully it'll be hugely reliable because they don't want to go through the same thing again.