What's Next

Hard as it may be to swallow, this generation of gaming is entering middle-age. With the Xbox 360 turning three years old later this year, it may be worth remembering that the system was released on only the fifth anniversary of the original Xbox. That probably puts us somewhere close to the dead-center of the 360’s lifespan, and it means that just as the phrase next-gen has stopped describing the 360 or PS3 we should begin to expect the first titillating hints of the next-next-gen in the coming months.

You’ll be forgiven for feeling as though the generational cycle is too short. After all the PS2 remains a semi-viable system, and even now doesn’t feel nearly as dated as the PS1 did at this point in the previous cycle. The laws of diminishing returns seem to be catching up with the videogame console cycle, as it seems increasingly hard to fathom exactly what demands a next-gen round of system could concoct to meet. And yet, I have no doubt that in closed door meetings the question of what do we do next isn’t just being asked, but answered.

Along with all the features we expect from a next-gen system, including technical improvements and our favorite franchises revisited, what else should next-next-gen deliver, and what has it learned from this-next-gen. Here are a few thoughts.

Non-Graphical Advancement – The new frontier for gaming is not in poly-pushing. While it’s safe to assume that an Xbox 3 or PS4 will up the ante on visual whizbangery if out of nothing more than a sense of inertia, the real work to be done will be in advancing the capabilities of the machine to create more interesting and dynamic worlds. From better physics to better AI, the realms that gaming needs to explore to create lifelike worlds is not in the textures but the environment.

From a hardware supported point of view a focus needs to be turned on making it easy to create realistically destructible objects and active environments where NPC seem to act in realistic ways, as though they had their own lives. The real holy grail of world building has far less to do with furthering the already impressive advancements in graphical technology, and more to do with sophistication.

Step Toward The End of Physical Media – While still more than a single generation away, the biggest advancement open to next-gen could be in the way that consoles deliver games. The success of the Xbox Live and Playstation Store for delivering all kinds of content, along with the increasing acceptance of digital distribution should be the biggest indicator that the retail method of game delivery is in jeopardy of being replaced.

Unfortunately, there remain so many problems with the current restrictions and limitations of digital distribution, that next-gen needs to be less about making the leap away from physical media and more about refining the consumer experience. Aside from storage concerns about distributing large AAA console games, which will obviously need to be addressed, creating a system that both protects publishers while offering a relatively hassle-free purchasing and playing experience for customers is the big next step.

Sophisticated Online and Community Environments – It doesn’t necessarily make for great feature list fodder, but I don’t think the success of Xbox Live can be understated. In a gaming environment that is more homogenized, with developers creating cross-platform titles that are virtually indistinguishable from one another, it is a huge feather in Microsoft’s cap to realize that people are making buying decisions based on the ease of staying connected with friends.

We see already in the current generation that often the technological improvements of the PS3 over the 360 are negated by developers who create games that have to work on both systems. So, when you have a game like Grand Theft Auto 4, which, according to one retailer, is selling 70% Xbox 360 to 30% PS3, you have to recognize that part of the disparity is because I, like a lot of people who have both systems, chose the 360 because that’s where it’s easiest to connect online with my friends. On the flip side, one of the most common complaints about the Wii is how obtuse the system is at matchmaking, and that’s a hassle that will continue to become more and more significant.

Affordability – Console makers learned quite suddenly with this generation that there is a price ceiling for a videogame console no matter what format of DVD player comes bundled. The success of the Wii in creating a system that is not significantly advanced, that does not try to be everything in a single box, that is dedicated primarily to improving the gaming experience at half the price cannot be ignored going into the next generation.

Next-gen needs to avoid the mistakes of this-gen and create systems at a single consistent price point that stays at or below $300 at launch. Instead of offering massive and repeated price cuts in the first year of production to stimulate growth, there needs to be a more restrained step into next gen. My fear is that those price cuts will come from lowered quality standards, and along with showing restraint in pricing next-gen I hope that console makers remember the one billion dollars Microsoft had to spend to address the failure rates of the 360.

Ease of development – This goes in tandem with the previous point. Along with being too expensive for consumers, this generation of consoles has been prohibitively expensive to develop for, leaving the consoles with fewer games from fewer developers at the worst times possible. This was particularly problematic in the early days of the generation when systems like the PS3 were already having a tough enough time selling systems.

Again, the Nintendo Wii needs to be part of the model that builds the next generation of consoles, with a system that used familiar development tools allowing cash strapped developers to overcome the hurdles of developing for a new system without breaking the bank.

Console makers are certain to focus on traditional advances in technology when selling their systems, but the real generational strides are not in the traditional avenues. The biggest difference in my gaming experience this generation has more to do with online connectivity, streaming media, the rise of casual gaming and new ways to stay connected to friends. I hope that along with lower priced systems, next generation sees more evolution in the way I play games over what the games look like.

Comments

They can improve graphics by allowing all games at least 2x AA, but then I think we will just see some sort of InternetTV console thing for the next-next gen.

Lower priced systems is what the manufacturers should shoot for. The problem is that modern consoles have become feature hogs that try to cram everything into one box. The 360 does a marginal job of this, their streaming system is broken for the AC3 audio codec as of the last time I tried. PS3 actually can act as a media center. Buy a new hard disk, slap in a connection to a networked drive and your ready to play all your ripped or dled movies. What needs to and could be patched into this current gen is DVR support. If you can fit a 500gb hard drive in the next gen and make it more of a HTPC without the MythTV or Windows hassles that would be good. Being able to upscale multiple inputs to 1080i would also be good. Oh, and Microsoft, make something that goes with my dang other boxes. If everything else on my computer, TV and accessories is black, stop trying to shove a white, oblong, concave ridiculous design down my neck. Just give me a black box that does the job and looks like a Bill Gates' super sized DVD player.

it is a huge feather in Microsoft’s cap

This phrase invariably makes me think of something like this:

IMAGE(http://www.frightcatalog.com/i/360x360/1306013.jpg)

but the PS3 is a 10 year system...

Though I love the 360 controller, I think we will see further advances in motion control as the standard out-of-the-box interface in the next generation of systems.

I'm excited to see what direction LIVE and the PS Network will take in their multiplayer lobbying systems next generation also. I'm not sold on the direction HOME is taking, as I appreciate the relatively streamlined functionality of the LIVE interface. However similar to how 3D killed 2D, I'd be curious to see if graphical virtual communities really catches on.

I wonder if we'll see any consideration towards backwards compatibility when next gen is launched.

I hope we see some slighly more consumer friendly DRM (i.e. forgiving of hardware failures) in the next generation, especially if digital downloads of software does catch on.

On digital downloads, though I'm a packrat with all my game purchases no matter how dusty they get, some folks appreciate the ability to re-sell their software once they are done. That might be a challenge for going wholly digital next gen. It also makes the software purchase much more technical and might limit the market as opposed to all the foot traffic retailers see.

I hope MS and Sony learned from the Nintendo Wii Sports example, that packing in an entertaining launch title is an investment towards success of the hardware.

The worst thing about my 360 at the moment is having to get up, go over to the 360, open the box on a game, take the disc out of the box, place the disc in the drive tray then go all the way back to my chair. All of a sudden that seems like a lot of work.

I think Sony and Microsoft will both be very price conscious and I'm willing to bet that Microsoft will make damn sure their next consol is reliable. It'll be interesting to see if people will still be willing to get it at launch or if they will wait and see.

I don't think we are at the mid point for the 360 or the PS3. I could be way off here but I see another 4-5 years at least for the 360 and if we are to believe Sony another 6-7 for the PS3. I doubt either company wants to develop another platform this soon which will risk them loosing yet more money after having lost way more money than I think either company wanted to lose this time around. The only company I think is ready to move on in 2-3 years is Nintendo and I wouldn't be surprised if we started hearing about a new console from them being developed very soon.

I see downloadable games being a huge money maker for the game companies. They won't have to produce disks and packaging and ship them to stores. They could completely put Gamestop out of business, who makes a ton of money off used games that the publishers never get a piece of. I can't wait for the day I can just download a new game rather than drive to a store, hope they have it in stock, and avoid the pushy sales guys that want you to preorder Halo 4 or some other game that doesn't even have a release date yet.

http://bitsmack.com

I think the Nintendo DS and the PSP are far more likely to be replaced with new iterations in the near future.

"The biggest difference in my gaming experience this generation has more to do with online connectivity, streaming media, the rise of casual gaming and new ways to stay connected to friends."

"... I think we will just see some sort of InternetTV console thing for the next-next gen."

Online connectivity, casual gaming, InternetTV, streaming media ... what does this sound like?

Hold on...I'll think of it... damned ADHD!

Sardonic thoughts aside, "What's Next" may well be finally able to respawn as what is. Let's face it folks, the PC has been way ahead in this field for a LONG time.
Yes - we can quibble - game stability issues, control issues, hardware requirements...all these gorgons will creep up and frag us. The truth is, all this aside, the PC affords a better gaming experience across the board.

Software developers would do well to take the lead in creating and sticking to a kind of blueprint for future PC gaming development. Each company could take some time and MAKE THE EFFORT to create and maintain standard and straightforward technical forums.
If these developers could come up with a general way to both STATE the basic testing requirements for their products and keep up a live database of variant ongoing testing - I think this could go a long way towards correcting some of the tarnished reputations some companies (cough - cough EA cough :-)) so rightly are branded with today.

By way of a "What's Next" for the PC, I might add the brilliant harnessing of motion and physical energy made popular by Nintendo with their Wii. Look out for this to be one big focus for hardware and software developers alike.

I don't think they'll let go of physical copies of games too soon. DLC will probably grow as an add on feature service that opens up new levels and expansions, but that's it. There needs to be a physical copy to comabt piracy and because it's such a part of the retail consumer experience, going to Best Buy or Gamestop and checking out the game and seeing all the other people getting it.

Random thoughts in random order:

The worst thing about the Xbox 360 is that I dread powering it up and listening to the noise, so I play games on other machines instead.

Online does not interesting me because I am an antisocial shut-in.

In many ways the PS2 remains the strongest console out there and its too bad people aren't making more new games for it.

It's sort of strange for one of the commenters to complain about feature bloat and then suggest that you could "patch" in a DVR app. Getting into broadcast TV capture is a sure way to lose, IMHO. I mean, Tivo is getting slaughtered and it's not likely you will do better than them.

I know I am at risk of sounding like the jackass, but what in that list could not be accomplished in current-gen?

Gaald wrote:

I could be way off here but I see another 4-5 years at least for the 360 and if we are to believe Sony another 6-7 for the PS3. I doubt either company wants to develop another platform this soon which will risk them loosing yet more money after having lost way more money than I think either company wanted to lose this time around.

It's a nice thought, but Microsoft is almost playing a different game than Sony when it comes to business. You could argue that Microsoft forcing the "next gen" early played a part in Sony's struggles with the PS3 because they felt that one year later was bad enough and shot an overpriced machine out the door. If Microsoft follows a similar trend, knowing they have plenty of cash to burn, they could win out on the competition simply by virtue of daring them to keep up. Given the success of Apple with their generational approach to ipods and Nintendo with the DS, I think consumers are willing to buy new platforms if they feel the value is there. Tricky line to walk, though. I think there's a real price barrier for that attitude and it's in and around $200.

I do agree that Nintendo is more likely to make a move first, but I think it would be a lighter refresh rather than a whole new whiz-banging system.

Why does everyone here think that the Nintendo will be announce the reales of systems sooner than their sales number trailing competitors? Or non-competitors from Nintendo's marketing-speech perspective.

When I read your comments on this, I can't help but imagine a press release from Nintendo reading something like this:
"Nintendo would like to announce the Wii Too and the DS Advance. We realize that the both are selling better than any other console or handheld system out there, but we want to take more of your money, and now! Since you can't even find a Wii on American store shelves, we also want to phase that product out, because that obviously means retailers are not ordering any units or stocking them. The continued growth of these systems does not cease to amaze us as we plan to phae out the best success story in company history since the original NES right in the middle of it reaching it's stride. So long Wii, you were and still are making us too much money. So long DS, you were on target to be the best selling piece of electronic hardware ever. We don't want that in our portfolio. Especially since it means beating out Sony's PS2."

Sorry, something like that just comes to mind. I realize that power-wise, the systems are and were outdated on release, but they are still making too much money for Nintendo to even entertain an announcement of replacements. I would start to understand the sentiment if they started selling less than 100,000 units each a month, but not the 400,000+ they actually do now in America alone.

That's also not taking into consideration any other concerns w/ development issues for third parties... I mean, if I were a 3rd party and I just got the current systems figured out in terms of the new input styles, I would hate to hear, oh yeah, now you have to deal w/ this new system instead.

I don't think anyone has suggested it would be anytime soon, mrtomaytohead. Given their jump from the DS to the DS Lite or the GBA to the SP, I don't think a refresh in a couple years is out of the question.

Probably just reading things wrong, but that's what ended up popping in my head. Kinda comical (to me) to think about...
Sorry for the fanboy outburst.

Higgledy wrote:

The worst thing about my 360 at the moment is having to get up, go over to the 360, open the box on a game, take the disc out of the box, place the disc in the drive tray then go all the way back to my chair. All of a sudden that seems like a lot of work.

Amen. Especially with the 360 in the closet, hidden away from view.

psu_13 wrote:

It's sort of strange for one of the commenters to complain about feature bloat and then suggest that you could "patch" in a DVR app. Getting into broadcast TV capture is a sure way to lose, IMHO. I mean, Tivo is getting slaughtered and it's not likely you will do better than them.

They are already trying to be more than a games console. If that is true, why do I have an HTPC and other boxes around my TV?
I would like to see them slim down consoles to a games system only, but its not going to happen. The manufacturers want these set top devices to essentially become a whole home entertainment system, minus TV and speakers. The only way to do that is to really do everything I want my media center to do.

Tivo is getting slaughtered by set top cable and satellite receiver boxes that do double duty.
That and monthly fees.

There are bandwidth concerns with digital downloads too. Plus relationships with retailers. And then there's pricing. Anyone going to pay $60 when you can't trade in or resell the game?

Sony and MS definitely have to move away from adding more polys. Nintendo will probably innovate again with the controlller and other methods.

Affordability and lower cost of development could mean that MS and Sony let their current systems ride for a few extra years. I mean MS isn't even below the $300 pricepoint after 2 1/2 years. There's no use on coming out with a brand new cheap system in another 2 1/2 years from today if your current one would still be above $200.

Really digital downloads can still be enhanced this generation as can online communities. On the Wii side of things MarioKart has their best online system yet. It's quite slick even though it has the crappy friend codes and no voice. It gets you in the game quick and you can easily race for 3 minutes or 1 hour or longer or anything in between. And they are going other directions with their online support in that game as well with the tournaments, the MK channel in the interface, sharing ghost times amongst friends, etc.

Also perhaps we're at apex here. The market seems to have definitely splintered. Nintendo took half of it or more it seems while Sony and MS are fighting for the other half or less even. Is the market big enough to support 3 players? Is the "hardcore" market big enough to support Sony and MS going forward?

Also if you're going to step away from cutting edge graphics (which I think should happen) to focus on other aspects of what makes games great then won't that put the pc back in the picture? Pcs have alot of procesing power just most of them have little in terms of gpu. And in a few years a cheap pc will likely have better graphical capabilities than a 360 or Ps3.

plus ease of development and affordability and digital downloads all would seem to play to the pc's strengths. Affordability being that everyone will have a pc that can do nice things graphically a few years from now with multiple core cpus.

I'm very curious to see how these free pc games turn out too. The Battlefield Heroes game being the big one. Then Mythos and even the Quake one. There's competition all over and the landscape could really change in the next few years. These games could change the notion that the pc ain't a gaming platform and that the pc isn't an easy to use gaming platform and that the pc is an expensive gaming platform. It won't happen overnight, but even a success will bring more development.

Nice wishlist.

What I do see happening though, is:

More graphics. Not higher rez textures, but more of them at once. So the focus will be to put more high rez and high poly NPCs on screen at one time so you can have "epic" battles.

DLC and lots of it. For a lot of money too. You'll still be buying physical media (too many people are making way too much money off of it to go away any time soon--kindda like internal combustion engines in cars). But you'll be also buying downloaded content. Microtransactions will be taken to a whole new level.

DRM. And then some more DRM. Built into your console. Into the I/O cables. Into your phyisical media. Into your controller. Into your net connection. Most likely 20-25% of the price of the console will be DRM devices and schemes.

I feel that MS will attempt to integrate online presence into the WWW somehow. Somehow you'll have an internet account when on Live. So that MS can shove more of their proprietary services upon you.

I think i saw a quote from an MS exec saying that he was expecting the 360 lifecycle to be around 7 years. Thing is, researching new technologies or designing initiatives around the new ideas for a console take a lot longer than just a year or two so even if a new console is 3-4 years out they'll already be in the planning and application/extrapolation stages with regards to chip power/abilities, unit cost, consumer uptake and branding evolution etc.

Personally, i'm not much of an online gamer. I don't want a console to become dependent on my internet connection for me to play a game and i don't want digital downloads on a system that is so closed.

I think that if the next generation is to really enhance AI in games then they need to have out-of-order processing units in the system. Physics is easier to do and i expect them to have solid collision engines running 'cheaply'. I also expect them to have the cloth and water physics running at the rate we currently have solid physics today on consoles.

Talking about the importance of online community, i think that there will be many more implementations in multiplayer for the cameras and microphones to take part in bringing players together - which could reduce the anonymity aspect that allows people to behave like assholes. Things like a graphical version of D&D complete with (optional) dungeon master role (think about the Neverwinter Nights version of this a few years back) combined with the Eye of Judgement card game. The blurring of the online and real spaces is a big thing and one i would hope that at least one console company has an eye on exploring. I think that is the logical extension of the Wii's 'local fun' social hook.

Somebody should superimpose Elysium's avatar over a painting of Nostradamus with predictions like that.

Rat Boy wrote:

Somebody should superimpose Elysium's avatar over a painting of Nostradamus with predictions like that.

You know, they really look remarkably similar:

IMAGE(http://www.stjernstrom.com/miscimages/nostradamus.jpg)
IMAGE(http://www.stjernstrom.com/miscimages/elysium.gif)

That's my bit!

trip1eX wrote:

There are bandwidth concerns with digital downloads too.

This is a huge problem IMO. Downloading a gig or two here and there isn't necessarily the end of the world, but with A) Disc capacity (and therefore potential game capacity) becoming larger with blu-ray, downloading games the size of MGS4 would become quite the hurdle, and B) Throttling and Bandwidth caps becoming the norm among ISPs would make downloading an even larger concern.

The ISPs have a lot of catching up to do before the disc is eliminated as a medium, as much as I pray for that day to come.

Certis wrote:

I don't think anyone has suggested it would be anytime soon, mrtomaytohead. Given their jump from the DS to the DS Lite or the GBA to the SP, I don't think a refresh in a couple years is out of the question.

What would they do though? Both handhelds changed up the screens and controls, but that only makes sense in an all in one unit. The obvious upgrade is to allow HD, but without adding some extra hardware to push pixels it would be almost rude to force developers to move to HD.

Dysplastic wrote:
trip1eX wrote:

There are bandwidth concerns with digital downloads too.

This is a huge problem IMO. Downloading a gig or two here and there isn't necessarily the end of the world, but with A) Disc capacity (and therefore potential game capacity) becoming larger with blu-ray, downloading games the size of MGS4 would become quite the hurdle, and B) Throttling and Bandwidth caps becoming the norm among ISPs would make downloading an even larger concern.

The ISPs have a lot of catching up to do before the disc is eliminated as a medium, as much as I pray for that day to come.

Never mind - I just finished reading and saw you already said that.

Dysplastic wrote:
trip1eX wrote:

There are bandwidth concerns with digital downloads too.

This is a huge problem IMO. Downloading a gig or two here and there isn't necessarily the end of the world, but with A) Disc capacity (and therefore potential game capacity) becoming larger with blu-ray, downloading games the size of MGS4 would become quite the hurdle, and B) Throttling and Bandwidth caps becoming the norm among ISPs would make downloading an even larger concern.

The ISPs have a lot of catching up to do before the disc is eliminated as a medium, as much as I pray for that day to come.

This is still my biggest gripe about everyone looking to a digital distribution model of games...

I just can't see the wholesale infrastructure changes needed to make this even remotely viable for any kind of seriously large gaming population.

Still many many years away I suspect... Plus, 50gb is a hell of a lot of data.

AP Erebus wrote:

This is still my biggest gripe about everyone looking to a digital distribution model of games...

I just can't see the wholesale infrastructure changes needed to make this even remotely viable for any kind of seriously large gaming population.

Storage is one of those things that will need to be addressed. Either some revolution will allow us to carry 700 TBs of data in a gumwrapper or they'll figure something out at their end that lets us stream levels in a simplistic manner.

OF COURSE, if the U.S. telecom industry wasn't run by a bunch of C*ckmongers that prefer to give themselves huge bonuses, we'd be well on our way to FIOS-backed interneting.

My greater concern is longevity. I buy PuzzlePopMasters on XBLA today and delete it when I need the space. 5 years from now EA-Activision acquires the license, produces a microtransaction-backed version and pulls the old one. I can't redownload it cuz it's been denied. OR, Band X decides they want a greater cut, Harmonix denies, and they call for having their songs pulled as DLC.

Doom and Gloom to be sure, but I wanna make sure what I buy stays available to me to use. I don't want the DRM server to be shut off in a few years and have me be SOL.

Gaald wrote:

I don't think we are at the mid point for the 360 or the PS3. I could be way off here but I see another 4-5 years at least for the 360 and if we are to believe Sony another 6-7 for the PS3. I doubt either company wants to develop another platform this soon which will risk them loosing yet more money after having lost way more money than I think either company wanted to lose this time around. The only company I think is ready to move on in 2-3 years is Nintendo and I wouldn't be surprised if we started hearing about a new console from them being developed very soon.

I think this is right on the money. Microsoft and Sony are both still quite cashed up, but I don't think either of them can afford to take a bath on this generation. That's why we haven't seen many price cuts yet -- the 360 has had a single, modest cut, and while the PS3 has had a few, that's only because of both the huge pressure to reduce its initial price and the resulting cuts in hardware specs. It makes sense for both of them to keep making the same machines, reaping the rewards of lower manufacturing costs and eventually bringing costs down when the profit margins justify it. If the current manufacturing costs are as high as they're speculated to be, especially for the PS3, it'll take several years for that to result in a net profit.

I also don't think MS will rush the next generation. It might look like they did so this time to get a jump on the competition, and I'm sure that was part of the motivation, but the main reason the dumped the Xbox so quickly was the astronomical losses MS incurred on each unit. The Xbox's fatal flaw was its use of purchased, rather than licenced, components, like its Intel CPU, which severely limited Microsoft's ability to reduce manufacturing costs over time, so rushing the 360 was the only way MS could cut those losses. Now that they're in charge of manufacturing, I think they'll be wringing all the profit they can from the 360.