Want to make your mark and be GWJ famous?
This is a place to deposit political predictions you'd like to make in public, so that they can be easily found and referenced in the future. Thus, it is not a discussion thread; discussions of predictions should take place in other threads as conversations proceed. Explicit clarification questions and answers are fine, but "Why do you think that?" expositions should occur elsewhere so as not to clutter the repository. Predictions should be narrowly defined; testable with publicly available information at all times; have an explicit date range; and refer to events, people and places explicitly so as to leave no doubt of resolution; and they should be numbered sequentially so that they are easier to find at later dates. Edits must be clearly marked and original text preserved through the use of strike-throughs if the prediction is modified. Please avoid the use of generalities - "The President will change his mind on this topic" is less useful than "The President will change his policy from yes to no on this topic", because the latter prevents a tiny change from being claimed as success. Failed predictions should be marked in bold at the top of the post via an edit, leaving the rest intact.
Biden will beat Trump, with a similar popular vote margin than in 2020, but wider margin in electoral votes. Biden fatigue and lower turnout among disappointed Dem voters will be compensated by demographic shifts (boomers dying and the unvaccinated being majority MAGA more than diversity). With the campaign gaining steam, Trump's lunacy and Biden's focus on it will get him closer in the polls.
The polls will still underestimate the Dems this time, who will also win the House.
The Senate will flip though, as the seats up for grabs strongly favor the GOP this cycle.
Biden will beat Trump, with a similar popular vote margin than in 2020, but wider margin in electoral votes. Biden fatigue and lower turnout among disappointed Dem voters will be compensated by demographic shifts (boomers dying and the unvaccinated being majority MAGA more than diversity). With the campaign gaining steam, Trump's lunacy and Biden's focus on it will get him closer in the polls.
The polls will still underestimate the Dems this time, who will also win the House.
The Senate will flip though, as the seats up for grabs strongly favor the GOP this cycle.
The recent move by the MAGAts to effectively decapitate the RNC puts the play for the Senate majority in some peril though. They went full on nacht der langenmesser and stabbed about 2/3 of their staff with less than 8 months to go to the election. All it would take is one disgruntled staffer to salt the donor list or corrupt the voter surveys and 3 points shifts across the board become very possible.
Considering the shit cash position they are in right now and the seemingly purposeful decision to fracture their own coalition, I think the prediction that they will retake the Senate and/or even retain the House is premature. It is worth noting that MAGAt candidates have historically done VERY poorly in competitive races since 2016.
Well, remember, the RNC is traditionally - always - purged to support the front-runner. So this is not so unusual. What is, is the appointment of Trump's family members. Also, the Dear Leader vibes make this move more noticeable than the usual staff changeover.
Joe Biden loses when the permanent underclass fails to turn up to assure him victory in November.
I typed up a real manifesto but it all boils down to Joe Biden pretended to care with his words and f*cked us with his deeds. What he did accomplish has no perceptable value or gain to the people who assured him victory.
Pretend to care? We'll pretend to vote and watch Joe lose on national tv.
"Oh wow Joe Biden lost?" Don't blame me! I voted for him.
Putting this here.
"Unless the entire, and I mean *entire* Republican side of the House goes against Johnson (which is nearly impossible), a move towards bipartisanship could restart the entire legislative system. The big difference would be that we'd be back to horse-trading for deals, neither side getting all it wants but both sides getting something. If the Dems and many of the Rs have decided to make things work again, this is how it will happen. As long as the Dems get something over time, Johnson becomes the actual Speaker and the Freedom Caucus instantly becomes irrelevant."
Putting this here.
"Unless the entire, and I mean *entire* Republican side of the House goes against Johnson (which is nearly impossible), a move towards bipartisanship could restart the entire legislative system. The big difference would be that we'd be back to horse-trading for deals, neither side getting all it wants but both sides getting something. If the Dems and many of the Rs have decided to make things work again, this is how it will happen. As long as the Dems get something over time, Johnson becomes the actual Speaker and the Freedom Caucus instantly becomes irrelevant."
Unless the entire, and I mean *entire* Republican side of the house has no interest in their re-election chances, ain't never gonna happen.
The GOP base is staunchly anti-bipartisan. Anyone doing as you suggest would get replaced by someone staunchly anti-bipartisan at the next election and we're back to square one.
Unless the entire, and I mean *entire* Republican side of the house has no interest in their re-election chances, ain't never gonna happen.
The GOP base is staunchly anti-bipartisan. Anyone doing as you suggest would get replaced by someone staunchly anti-bipartisan at the next election and we're back to square one.
But they don't need the *entire* Republican side of the house. If the Democrats all vote yes, you need three Republicans = of which Johnson is already one - to pass legislation with a 216-215 vote.
The trick is finding a few more who care more about actually getting things done than pandering to their base, and are willing to compromise. Anyone who's already announced they're not running for re-election would be a prime candidate. The fact that they could thumb their noses at Gaetz, MTG, and the rest of the Lunatic Caucus at the same time is an added bonus, because they may be popular within their own circles, but the rest of the GOP isn't always particularly thrilled with their antics.
Biden will be arrested by the Secret Service on vague, nonspecific charges within the first year of Trump’s second term.
In light of recent news I’d like to amend this prediction by saying that Trump will not even bother with the pretense of charging Biden with anything, he’ll just order Biden arrested, alongside anyone else he views as a political opponent and any celebrities, journalists, and internet figures who he’s seen making fun of him.
And he will publicly brag about it afterwards. “I wanted to be nice, but they made me do it, they made me do it. They’re awful people really, big losers. Big big big losers. Well I hope they’re maybe reconsidering their lives now but they’re not gonna get out anyway.”
I really hope I'm wrong, but this has all the hallmarks of a partial, or a total collapse of a fractious, bickering opposition in the face of reactionary authoritarianism.
gotta love the classics, I guess.
If nothing else, Biden's steadfast refusal to step down is going to prompt the next "Ok boomer" movement.
If nothing else, Biden's steadfast refusal to step down is going to prompt the next "Ok boomer" movement.
And Biden is too old to be a boomer...
I predict that when Biden refers to President Zelensky as Adolf Hitler next week a whole load of people will rush to his defence.
It is ironic that we have a president from the silent generation following 4 consecutive Baby Boomer presidents. And people say Democrats don't pass the torch to the next generation.
I'm locking in a prediction now
Trump will call Kamala a Haitian tomorrow and all of our media will insist that he just got Jamaican and Haiti mixed up and this isn't a dogwhistle
Mainstream media will be doing the following:
1 - "It was an amazing victory by Trump, as he only lied 50% of the time" with a side of "he was not all that racist in his comments"; and
2 - "Kamala Harris mispronounced the name of a Czechoslovakian economist, which is proof she is unfit to be president".
The number one trending topic on social media tonight will be "Angry Black Lady."
Not seeing either of these reaction, thankfully.
I’m glad most of the debate predictions didn’t come true ( and no judgement cause I would have agreed with all of them Tuesday morning).
So my new prediction - I think Kamala has a real shot of winning this. Sadly, I think it all depends on if we go into a recession or not this fall.
I don't see any precursors to a recession, though.
Interest rates should drop soon, which should boost the record-level market even more.
Unless OPEC arbitrarily jacks up oil prices or unexpected global instability emerges somewhere, things are looking good. (knock on wood)
Interest rates should drop soon, which should boost the record-level market even more.
Not to siderail this too much, but I suspect a rate cut is already baked in to the current market prices. If anything, I'd bet the markets are going to go down when the fed announcement comes out and it's just a matter of whether or not it's a blip or a couple of percentage points.
If anything, I'd bet the markets are going to go down when the fed announcement comes out and it's just a matter of whether or not it's a blip or a couple of percentage points.
Yup. Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.
Not sure if it's fair to give other people's predictions, but Elie Mystal just predicted on WNYC that Eric Adams is "going to go full MAGA, hope that Trump gets elected, and try for a presidential pardon". (Not an exact quote, but an accurate sense of it.)
Not sure if it's fair to give other people's predictions, but Elie Mystal just predicted on WNYC that Eric Adams is "going to go full MAGA, hope that Trump gets elected, and try for a presidential pardon". (Not an exact quote, but an accurate sense of it.)
I had predicted earlier this year that Adams was aiming for a spot on the Trump administration. I was slightly incorrect in that I thought he was going to be the VP candidate, but he could still end up as HUD secretary!
I predict that none of my predictions will be correct, as they almost never are. Everything will be fine
I predict that during the VP debate this week Jance Dance Vance is going to repeatedly try to awkwardly slip in some of the weird anti-Walz memes conservatives have been throwing against the wall. Almost certainly at least the horse cum one.
I predict that during the VP debate this week Jance Dance Vance is going to repeatedly try to awkwardly slip in some of the weird anti-Walz memes conservatives have been throwing against the wall. Almost certainly at least the horse cum one.
Very possible. But Walz is pretty quick-witted, and I'm sure he and Mayor Pete have prepared for such obvious nonsense.
Such attacks may be catnip for the converted, but I doubt they'll sway anyone to like Vance. If Vance comes off even more unlikeable (likely), it will hurt Trump.
Such attacks may be catnip for the converted, but I doubt they'll sway anyone to like Vance. If Vance comes off even more unlikeable (likely), it will hurt Trump.
I'm not sure it's "likely" at all. I mean, he's less popular than Sarah Palin was. It's going to be a pretty tall order to make people like him even less than they already do.
Then again, if anyone can pull it off, it's this bunch of clowns.
JLS wrote:Such attacks may be catnip for the converted, but I doubt they'll sway anyone to like Vance. If Vance comes off even more unlikeable (likely), it will hurt Trump.
I'm not sure it's "likely" at all. I mean, he's less popular than Sarah Palin was. It's going to be a pretty tall order to make people like him even less than they already do.
Then again, if anyone can pull it off, it's this bunch of clowns.
I spent way more time than is healthy crawling down the rabbit hole that is Vance's lifelong trip through the Alt-Right pipeline. Wow is that shit whack. In any event, if you really want to understand why he says the shit he says and what it all means to the demographic he is targeting, look up Curtis Yarvin (aka Mencius Moldbug). He is pretty much the intellectual patient zero of the whole techbro/vencap anarchocapitalist nonsense that defines folks like Thiel, Elmo, and Vance.
Interestingly enough, Trump is not in that camp. Trump is in the "anything that keeps Trump out of federal prison" camp. He is a grifter fighting for his life. If that means destroying democracy to do it, that's just a happy accident. The Yarvin camp, otoh, really is about destroying democracy as a primary objective. They truly are bullied lolcows that think they should rule the world because they know how to code and had access to the right kind of education. In that sense, Trump has a lot more to worry about from that faction than he cares to admit to himself. They see him as a vector to the White House, but they also see him as an obstacle once they get there. If Trump "wins", Vance will be president inside the first 12 months.
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