A place for aggregated discussions of a possible conflict, it’s implications and effects, news updates and personal accounts if any. If the expected conflict kicks off, I will change the title but the function will stay the same.
Germany has issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian diving instructor last seen in Poland, and is investigating several of their peers as well, in regards to the September 26 2022 Nord Stream pipeline bombing. Apparently the person fled after finding out they were being investigated.
Looks like we all may have discounted the ability of Ukraine to do this stuff, even though we acknowledged the motive. (Obviously, more recent events have shown their SOF and naval forces sophistication and capabilities to be much higher than we thought at the time.)
They have also locked down two military bases after Russian agents poisoned their water supplies.
One, no poison found. It was not actually locked down, just investigated. the other, they found a cut fence and shut the place down.
Volcano erupts in Kamchatka on Russia's east coast. If you thought you were having a bad August so far, you are at least not having Russia's August so far.
The only reason I didn't need to look up where Kamchatka is on a map is Risk
The only reason I didn't need to look up where Kamchatka is on a map is Risk
Same reason I can roughly locate the Ural Mountains.
The only reason I didn't need to look up where Kamchatka is on a map is Risk
KAL Flight 007, here.
Perun always does excellent analysis, but this one might be one of his best.
Lots to digest in this long video, but one of the points that really stood out to me was how the level of coordination, sophistication, and initiative demonstrated in the Kursk offensive has pretty neatly put the lie to the Kremlin narrative that the Ukrainian army has been worn down to nothing but untrained and unmotivated conscripts and that they are losing an inevitable war of attrition. That is a narrative I have heard repeated by LOTS of Western news outlets and demonstrates how effective the Kremlin information campaigns have been.
Poorly trained recruits contribute to loss of Ukrainian territory on eastern front, commanders say
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Some new Ukrainian soldiers refuse to fire at the enemy. Others, according to commanders and fellow fighters, struggle to assemble weapons or to coordinate basic combat movements. A few have even walked away from their posts, abandoning the battlefield altogether.
While Ukraine presses on with its incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, its troops are still losing precious ground along the country’s eastern front — a grim erosion that military commanders blame in part on poorly trained recruits drawn from a recent mobilization drive, as well as Russia’s clear superiority in ammunition and air power.
“Some people don’t want to shoot. They see the enemy in the firing position in trenches but don’t open fire. ... That is why our men are dying,” said a frustrated battalion commander in Ukraine’s 47th Brigade. “When they don’t use the weapon, they are ineffective.”
The accounts come from commanders and soldiers who spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity in order to speak freely about sensitive military matters. Others spoke on the condition that they be identified only by their call signs in keeping with Ukrainian military protocol.
Commanders say the recruits have contributed to a string of territorial losses that enabled Russia’s army to advance, including near the city of Pokrovsk, a critical logistics hub. If it falls, the defeat would imperil Ukraine’s defenses and bring Russia closer to its stated aim of capturing the Donetsk region. Russian soldiers are now just 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) away.
Adding to Ukraine’s woes are Russia’s huge advantage in manpower and its willingness to accept staggering losses in return for capturing small objectives.
The recently conscripted Ukrainians are a far cry from the battle-hardened fighters who flocked to join the war in the first year of the full-scale invasion. The new troops lack even a minimal level of training, commanders and soldiers from four brigades defending the Pokrovsk area said.
So, Kursk.
Apparently US restrictions on using our weapons in RUS are restricted to counter-fire inside Russia.
"Hey guys. That batch of artillery rounds has a US flag on it. Can't use those except for counter-fire. If we're firing the first shot, use these other ones first. Then wait until we get word that we're firing back at the Russians. Then you can load the US-flagged ones."
The f*ck are we doing.
The f*ck are we doing.
Maintaining the thinnest veneer of deniability as to our direct involvement in hostile actions against a nuclear power.
In global matters with entangled treaties, agreements, and obligations to other nations technicalities matter.
So, Kursk.
Apparently US restrictions on using our weapons in RUS are restricted to counter-fire inside Russia.
"Hey guys. That batch of artillery rounds has a US flag on it. Can't use those except for counter-fire. If we're firing the first shot, use these other ones first. Then wait until we get word that we're firing back at the Russians. Then you can load the US-flagged ones."
The f*ck are we doing.
Glad I'm not the only one who immediately thought of this.
It is both funny and infuriating watching "analysts" try to find "hidden genius" explanations for why Putin has failed to properly respond to the Kursk incursion. I actually heard one such talking head posit that he was intentionally allowing the crisis to continue so he can motivate the Russian people to enlist or at least not resist a general mobilization.
My own take on why he doesn't is is because he can't. He has built a "military" around competing loyalties that distrust and actively sabotage one another. He has done this because he is far more concerned with internal security than he is about military effectiveness. He has more to fear from the oligarchs and siloviki than he does the Ukrainians. This is why he has replaced Gerasimov with a non military guy who used to be his bodyguard.
In such a command environment, he can't just pull units from one part of the front and move them to another without major internal political ramifications. It would be like pulling a drug dealer off a block and sending him to another city. Like I have been saying for ages. This is not a country in the normal sense of the word. It is an organized criminal conspiracy with nuclear weapons.
There are indications a second major UKR incursion into Russia is underway, around the Belgorod region. Suggested somewhere between 300 to 500 troops involved. Seems like they're probing and looking for more easy territorial gains and doubling the pressure on p.
There are indications a second major UKR incursion into Russia is underway, around the Belgorod region. Suggested somewhere between 300 to 500 troops involved. Seems like they're probing and looking for more easy territorial gains and doubling the pressure on p.
Belgorod would be the logical progression. The Kursk incursion cut off the most important rail line to Belgorod, seriously hampering offensive efforts from that critical logistics hub. Taking it out entirely would have major impacts on an already borked Russian logistics system.
500 is...not a lot unless we're talking about a raid.
I'd also be interested in what this is doing to being able to hold the line inside UKR.
500 is...not a lot unless we're talking about a raid.
I'd also be interested in what this is doing to being able to hold the line inside UKR.
First, I don't think the Russians know how many folks have crossed the border.
Second, just being able to do recce by force and burning shit like railyards, power transformers, and fuel depots would be massively disruptive.
Any further word on this supposed Belgorod incursion?
Russia has stepped up its aerial campaign with a large strike on a Ukrainian military training school. Many killed and more wounded. We should have stepped up a long time ago...
We should have stepped up a long time ago...
That's basically the m.o. of western assistance since all of this began 2.5 years ago.
Zelenskiy reshuffles Ukraine cabinet as Russian missile strike targets Lviv
Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, has resigned as part of a wide-ranging government reshuffle designed to give what Volodymyr Zelenskiy has called “new strength” to the embattled country.
Kuleba’s departure, announced in a handwritten note, came as Russia continued its relentless air barrage. At least seven people died and 53 were injured in a missile strike in the western city of Lviv.
Andriy Sadovyi, the mayor of Lviv, said three of the seven dead were children. The attack took place in Lviv’s historic centre, usually considered a safe zone.
Sadovyi posted a photo of a family killed in their home: a mother, Yevheniya, and her three daughters, Yaryna, Daryna and Emiliya. Their father, Yaroslav, was the only survivor. Rescuers treated his injuries as he stood in the street outside their ruined apartment.
The mayor said Yaryna Bazylevych, 21, had worked in his office on a youth project. Her 18-year-old sister Daryna was a second-year student at Lviv’s Catholic university. Firefighters found the body of Emiliya, nine, buried under rubble.
“Russia used missiles and drones to attack people in their homes while they were sleeping at night. Ordinary homes, schools, and hospitals were hit,” Kuleba posted on X shortly after he announced his resignation.
He said heritage buildings in Lviv’s Unesco-protected zone were also damaged in “Russia’s war crime against civilians”. A further six people were hurt on Wednesday in another Russian attack on Kryvyi Rih, Zelenskiy’s home city.
Several European foreign ministers praised Kuleba after his resignation. They included Annalena Baerbock, Germany’s foreign minister, who said he had put the people of Ukraine before himself. She recalled their “long conversations on night trains, at the G7, on the frontlines, in Brussels, [and] in front of a bombed-out power plant”.
Speaking in a video address on Tuesday evening, Zelenskiy said he was refreshing his team in anticipation of “an extremely important autumn”. He promised “a slightly different emphasis” in foreign and domestic policy.
There was speculation that Andriy Sybiha, the deputy head of the office of the president of Ukraine, was likely to replace Kuleba. Sybiha is a veteran diplomat who has served as ambassador to Turkey and at Ukraine’s embassy in Poland. He works under Andriy Yermak, the head of Zelenskiy’s office.
Several ministers in Kyiv have already submitted letters of resignation, and a presidential aide has been dismissed. It is the biggest shake-up of senior officials since the beginning of Russia’s 2022 invasion, and had been expected for months.
The reshuffle has been portrayed as a political reset engineered by Zelenskiy and his close circle before winter, which is expected to bring electricity shortages after Russian strikes on critical infrastructure and difficult news from the front.
Zelenskiy said in a Tuesday evening address that changes would be made to strengthen the government. He said: “The autumn will be extremely important for Ukraine. And our state institutions must be set up so that Ukraine achieves all the results that we need … We must strengthen some areas in the government, and personnel decisions have been prepared.”
On Wednesday he held talks with the Irish taoiseach, Simon Harris, who was visiting Kyiv. The two leaders signed a bilateral deal and Zelenskiy thanked Ireland for taking in more than 100,000 Ukrainian citizens.
Other senior ministers who submitted resignations were Olha Stefanishyna, the deputy prime minister in charge of leading Ukraine’s push to join the EU, and Oleksandr Kamyshin, the minister for strategic industries, who oversees arms production and development. The justice minister, Denys Maliuska, and the environment protection minister, Ruslan Strilets, stepped down too.
Ukraine’s parliament, the Rada, approved the changes on Wednesday, clapping Maliuska and other outgoing ministers. Some of those resigning are expected to get new posts in government. Kamyshin was reappointed on Wednesday as a strategic adviser.
Speaking earlier, David Arakhamia, the head of the Servant of the People party’s parliamentary faction, the largest in the Rada, said a “major government reset” was under way. “More than 50% of the cabinet of ministers’ staff will be changed,” he said, adding that there would be a “day of appointments” after “a day of dismissals” on Wednesday.
Orysia Lutsevych, the head of the Ukraine forum at the thinktank Chatham House, said Kuleba’s departure had been expected. He would almost certainly get another top post, probably as a senior ambassador somewhere abroad, she predicted.
Lutsevych said some other personnel changes were less explicable. “It’s a pattern whenever Zelenskiy dismisses ministers. He is very mysterious and brief,” she said. “There is a problem with strategic communications. It creates speculation about why this happens.
“Normally in Ukraine there are suspicions about power, control, cashflows and [Andriy] Yermak [Zelenskiy’s influential chief of staff]. What is disconcerting is when some effective leaders, people with good reputations, are being dismissed.”
Last week western financial institutions voiced their concern after the head of Ukraine’s energy company, Ukrenergo, was fired. Volodymyr Kudrytskyi was sacked for allegedly failing to protect the country’s power grid from Russian attacks.
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