[Q&A] Political Predictions Repository

Want to make your mark and be GWJ famous?

This is a place to deposit political predictions you'd like to make in public, so that they can be easily found and referenced in the future. Thus, it is not a discussion thread; discussions of predictions should take place in other threads as conversations proceed. Explicit clarification questions and answers are fine, but "Why do you think that?" expositions should occur elsewhere so as not to clutter the repository. Predictions should be narrowly defined; testable with publicly available information at all times; have an explicit date range; and refer to events, people and places explicitly so as to leave no doubt of resolution; and they should be numbered sequentially so that they are easier to find at later dates. Edits must be clearly marked and original text preserved through the use of strike-throughs if the prediction is modified. Please avoid the use of generalities - "The President will change his mind on this topic" is less useful than "The President will change his policy from yes to no on this topic", because the latter prevents a tiny change from being claimed as success. Failed predictions should be marked in bold at the top of the post via an edit, leaving the rest intact.

Robear wrote:

Hope you recover quickly, Rukh!

The last week has sucked and every day brings a new annoyance, but honestly I’m more bummed out that my streak of narrowly avoiding Covid has finally ended. My partner & I were the last holdouts in our social group.

Everyone on that stage last night will talk about masculinity and leadership and freedom and toughness, and at the end, every last one of them (save for Christie and probably Pence) will prostrate themselves to the bully without question or protest.

The last week has sucked and every day brings a new annoyance, but honestly I’m more bummed out that my streak of narrowly avoiding Covid has finally ended. My partner & I were the last holdouts in our social group.

I feel ya. And I got it a year ago
Get better as soon as possible.

I see the yelling online, and I'm actually quite sympathetic to left-wing disappointment/disavowal of Biden, and the ongoing sense of getting a sh*t sandwich because it's not as bad as that flaming, poison-filled one over there.

However, my ongoing question remains, assuming Trump gets in in 2024, what is the Left's plan for after that? Arguing that Biden/Trump are the same reveals the speaker to be a hilariously unserious Tankie, but I'm genuinely curious what the plan for... the revolution, or whatever is assuming a Trump 2.0 presidency.

I'm personally of the opinion that the Left is wholly unprepared for the level of violent suppression the state will level against them in such a circumstance, beyond the fact that I have always been skeptical of how amenable the American populace is as a whole to genuine Left projects.

And again, I'm quite sympathetic to dissatisfaction with Biden. I'm not fond of him politically, however, the current political situation has me trapped in a situation where I am emphatically choosing the lesser of two evils.

But in total honesty, I just wonder what the plan is. I know the slogan is "They can't kill us all," but that is just so, so, so so so wrong.

At least among the circles I’m in, the revolutionary leftist energy has mostly abandoned national politics as anything other than tactical harm reduction and shifted away from proactive “let’s prevent the collapse” plans and towards “the collapse is definitely happening at this point regardless so let’s be prepared to pick up the pieces and make something better with them.” Everyone still plans on holding their nose and voting Biden but we all realize that sh*ts going to continue getting worse and worse regardless and it’s up to the people to save each other because capitalism won’t let politics make meaningful change and there’s simply not enough time left for the “incremental positive change” of liberals to be effective.

I know it's Mulvaney, Trump's former Chief of Staff, so, you take it with several shakers of salt, but honestly, I think he's right.

DeSantis, even Haley or Scott probably trounce Biden. But Trump has the best chance of blowing it.

I don't see any Republican doing as well as Trump, if Trump ends up jail, say. Biden definitely beats DeSantis if the election were held today. But if it were, Trump and Biden would be a close one.

Trump will be the republican nominee even if he dies before the primaries because a significant portion of the republican electorate will just think he faked his death to catch Biden & his deep state goons off guard.
DeSantis is an awkward void of charisma who would lose to a damp paper bag in the national elections. The only reason he’s an extremely distant second in polling is because a lot of the party desperately wants to rid themselves of Trump and DeSantis was the first alternative who was able to get national attention for something other than sex crimes.

I am not sure about that, re: DeSantis. I know a lot of Floridians who love the guy because "he is getting things done" and "blahblahwokeblahblah." Take Trump, remove ALL the charisma, and add a little bit of "I'm not a moron" and you have DeSantis.

If we have a "The Rock v. Mark Cuban" Presidential election, we will deserve whatever climate apocalypse we get.

Prederick wrote:

If we have a "The Rock v. Mark Cuban" Presidential election, we will deserve whatever climate apocalypse we get.

hot take: either of those people would do a better job of addressing the climate catastrophe than Trump.

Nuclear take: or Biden.

Biden will be arrested by the Secret Service on vague, nonspecific charges within the first year of Trump’s second term.

I'll quibble with you on the "vague, nonspecific" part, they'll gin something up, but yes, he will absolutely be arrested. It's pure "eye for an eye" stuff.

Not without the entire top echelon of the Justice Department resigning, he won't be. Unless they have actual evidence. When Presidents try to control indictments, that's what happens. It was threatened during the last Trump Admin, and some did resign.

Agreed but, you know their plan, like, openly stated plan is a governmental purge and replacing everyone with loyalists, right?

Like, everyone who doesn't toe the line.

Robear wrote:

Not without the entire top echelon of the Justice Department resigning

yes, that’s also part of the plan if you’ve seen the Project 2025 stuff.

EDIT: Pred beat me to it. Trump and his loyalists have made it extremely clear that a second term is going to be gloves-off dictator sh*t.

ruhk wrote:

EDIT: Pred beat me to it. Trump and his loyalists have made it extremely clear that a second term is going to be gloves-off dictator sh*t.

But only on Day One!

(for varying definitions of "day")

Well if you dissolve the constitution and the other branches of government, you don't need any of the other days.

Don will win the Iowa caucus but won’t beat the spread. He’ll win by well under 50 points and his “underperformance” against the predictions by the charlatans in the polling industry will dominate the next news cycle.

I know the media loves to spill ink on Trump because it grabs eyeballs but from my on the ground perspective I don't see the same enthusiasm for him that seemed to once exist. My evidence, of course, is built from the shaky observation that I don't see as much of his merch around.

Way less signs, bumper stickers, flags, etc. To me that suggests that he doesn't have the popularity he once did or, alternatively, these folks finally got to the bottom of their flags and stickers budgets.

As per Robear's request:

Donald Trump will have enough votes to win the Republican nomination after Super Tuesday, but stroke out in Mid March after eating a celebratory triple hamberder. Nikki Haley will have conceded by then, but will claim that she is the logical GOP presidential candidate to take over. Rick DeSantis will disagree and mobilize his army of knuckledragging Florida Men to invade South Carolina in response, but will get stuck in traffic outside of Atlanta in a fiasco resembling Putin's convoy of death near Kyiv. Without adequate supplies of oxycontin, bath salts, and pork rinds, mass defections will ensue.

The RNC will eventually settle on a Kari Lake candidacy that devolves into chaos when it is revealed that she is actually just a skin suit pulled tightly over a mound of fire ants.

Counterpoint: The only person as creepy, power-hungry, incompetent, misogynistic, perverse, and avarice as Trump. Not the president we need, but maybe the one we deserve...

Look, you want a creepy old guy who claims to be self-made but is actually just building on the groundwork of his father...

Chairman_Mao on Jan 23, 2020 wrote:

Trump will die of a low energy heart after contracting e coli from eating a Quarter Pounder from his favorite McD's, which, because the beef patties are no longer frozen, did not have an SOP in place for keeping fresh meat sufficiently chilled. He will die as he lived, the night of the election, a cowardly jackass, in sound and fury.

I hope you fare better than I did, Paleo.

My prediction is: given that efforts to mobilize evangelicals for the Republicans are hitting an even greater amount of pressure than in 2020, combined with the flashpoints in the past few years that are causing apathy in subsets of Democratic voters, we are quite likely going to hit a repeat of the 2000 election. It will come down to some swing state having alleged irregularities or problems with authenticating a clear winner (probably declared by the press for Biden, then a full-court press from the right to call it into question) that winds up in a court case that goes up to the Supreme Court.

What I can't predict is which way the SCOTUS will go. My gut feeling is that they would decide in favor of the Republican candidate out of fear of MAGA turning on them.

That kind of scenario wouldn’t surprise me, but right now I predict Trump will just win. The needle only has to move 1, maybe 2, percentage points from 2020 for him to clearly take enough swing states to win the electoral college outright.

Fairly or unfairly, people have obviously soured on Biden. Fear of another Trump term is a powerful motivator, but I’m having a hard time imagining it will be as powerful in 2024 as it was in 2020, when the horrors of his presidency were fresh on everyone’s minds. Specifically I’m talking about the low information, independent swing voters, who have no idea what’s going on and seem to vote on the basis of vibes or some crap.

Maybe if he’s convicted of something? But I fear most people already know he’s a criminal, and even a rapist, and for some dismaying reason, don’t really care.

I do think Biden still wins the popular vote, which just adds further insult to injury.

1 - Trump is going to win the 2024 election.

2 - Trump is going to declare that because [reasons], his first term didn't count, so he is not at 2 terms.

3 - He will alter the constitution to remove term limits.

Can't the fat f*ck just have a heart attack after his next Big Mac?

He already clearly had a stroke in office, covered up with that "emergency physical exam" and he keeps bragging about the cognitive tests they give stroke payments. Moron

gewy wrote:

I do think Biden still wins the popular vote, which just adds further insult to injury.

Oh Biden definitely wins the popular vote. I've no doubt of that.

And I'm not sure Trump will survive and/or be the candidate come November. That's why I specified "Republican candidate", not Trump.

We all know life imitates art, so on election night there will be small, unrelated domestic terrorist attacks in 3-4 swing states that end in the destruction of 10k-20k ballots each.

These attacks will happen in Madison, Philadelphia, Detroit, and Atlanta. Those states will all go red by less votes than were destroyed.

The Supreme Court will decide that’s just fine.

Spoiler:

this is the plot of an episode of Succession.

Truth is stranger than fiction. It will be even more bizarre than that Seth.