NFL 2023: The draft / post-draft / preseason thread

People tried to blame Christian Kirk's $18m/yr for "blowing up" the WR market, but it was Hopkins signing for over $27m/yr two years earlier (when the previous high was $22m) which yanked the market upwards.

It's just that there were no big WR contract signings in 2021, so the effect wasn't felt until two years later (and with two years of cap inflation). Kirk was just the first one to sign in that environment.

Will Ferrell as Madden in the movie?

Cmon, man.

The Madden movie better include Madden's time as coach of Allan Hancock College.

I just want it to include a scene where Madden refuses to cooperate with the game unless they find a way to render 11 players on each side on the NES.

Pink Stripes wrote:

I just want it to include a scene where Madden refuses to cooperate with the game unless they find a way to render 11 players on each side on the NES.

Pedantry time, but it was Apple II:

David O. Russell? So is Jennifer Lawrence gonna play Virginia Madden, or Pat Summerall?

People tried to blame Christian Kirk's $18m/yr for "blowing up" the WR market, but it was Hopkins signing for over $27m/yr two years earlier (when the previous high was $22m) which yanked the market upwards.

I'm guessing he still signs a decent deal but no where near that range. $5/10m a year makes sense for a ton of teams.

David O. Russell, huh? Good to know that I won't have to bother watching it then.

Minase wrote:

I'm guessing he still signs a decent deal but no where near that range. $5/10m a year makes sense for a ton of teams.

I think you might be a little low, whereas every contract projection I've seen elsewhere are way too high IMO. Especially for a guy whose knee might be a chronic issue. He tore that right knee to end 2021, got suspended for PEDs he was using during rehab in the 2022 offseason, and then missed the end of the 2022 season when that same knee "flared up" again. And in between, he missed 3 games with a hamstring injury, which often happens when someone is trying to play with a bad knee and their leg mechanics are screwed up.

OBJ signed his deal for 1 year, $15 million. I think that's a useful anchor point for discussions about Hopkins' value, given they're the same age, same position, and similar knee health concerns.

I've seen stories reference Spotrac's $23.2 million market value estimation for Hopkins, but that number hasn't been updated recently, and doesn't reflect how the entire league just said "pass" on the chance to trade for him.

A couple other data points worth considering. The Saints renegotiated Michael Thomas' contract to keep him for 2023 and pay him $10 million. Brandin Cooks signed with Dallas for 2 years, $20 million. So that's a couple of veteran WRs with varying injury concerns on freshly signed/renegotiated deals that put them at the $10m/yr mark.

I think I'm gonna squeeze Hopkins in above Thomas/Cooks and below OBJ, around 1 year, $12 million. Hopkins was still productive in the games he was on the field. But the PED suspension is a concern that media seems to be glossing over, as is the fact that his surgically repaired knee became an issue again a whole year later.

*Legion* wrote:

David O. Russell? So is Jennifer Lawrence gonna play Virginia Madden, or Pat Summerall?

Hear me out: Robert DeNiro as Al Davis. Bradley Cooper as Brent Musberger. Christian Bale as Jimmy the Greek. Jennifer Lawrence as Phyllis George.

Rat Boy wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

David O. Russell? So is Jennifer Lawrence gonna play Virginia Madden, or Pat Summerall?

Hear me out: Robert DeNiro as Al Davis. Bradley Cooper as Brent Musberger. Christian Bale as Jimmy the Greek. Jennifer Lawrence as Phyllis George.

A better Musberger would be Hank Azaria.

And who's the best Summerall?

*Legion* wrote:
Pink Stripes wrote:

I just want it to include a scene where Madden refuses to cooperate with the game unless they find a way to render 11 players on each side on the NES.

Pedantry time, but it was Apple II:

Right! Which makes it even better. There's an old 30 for 30 podcast that's a fun listen about it.

Top_Shelf wrote:
Rat Boy wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

David O. Russell? So is Jennifer Lawrence gonna play Virginia Madden, or Pat Summerall?

Hear me out: Robert DeNiro as Al Davis. Bradley Cooper as Brent Musberger. Christian Bale as Jimmy the Greek. Jennifer Lawrence as Phyllis George.

A better Musberger would be Hank Azaria.

And who's the best Summerall?

Adrian Brody.

Lol.

*Legion* wrote:

Christian Kirk.

I read this as a weird amalgamation of Kirk Cousins and Kirk Cameron where a quarterback was sent by a vengeful God to smite opponents and usher in the 1000 year reign of the anti-Christ, all so a resurrected Kirk (but which one?!) could save us all in the end by throwing Tom Brady into a bottomless pit of suffering.

Last year the AFC South had both Christian Kirk and Christian Kirksey.

*Legion* wrote:

Last year the AFC South had both Christian Kirk and Christian Kirksey.

Same guy right? One just has an obviously fake moustache?

Now that Deandre Hopkins is a FA, PFT reports that teams do not want to negotiate with self-represented players over email because the players are using non-certified agents who actually write the emails. This quote is fantastic:

One team became aware of this practice because it received an email from the player — while the player was literally on the practice field.

Michael Thomas (and Joe Horn) have that strat on lockdown.

IMAGE(https://uproxx.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/thomas-phone-jpg-jpeg.jpeg?w=970)

The market for Hopkins is already cooling down. The Jets have said that they like the WR room they already have, and now the Bills are “unlikely” to pursue Hopkins, given his current contract demands.

Those demands are basically for some team to match the $15m OBJ got. No team seems to be in a hurry to do that.

As it stands, I’m starting to think my $12m estimate might be too high. He might end up closer to Minase’s range.

Kinda wild that we are not that far removed from peak WR hysteria in the 2022 offseason.

Got turned onto Brett Kollman this spring, and the content.... it is good.

That video is fascinating. Thanks for sharing it!

He did one on the Tampa 2 last week that's equally interesting:

So, fascinating post seen on r/nfl; an announcement of the third season of the European League of Football. 17 teams, most in Germany, but spread across a solid half-dozen other countries, being allowed by the NFL to use the old World League teams so there are Barcelona Dragons, Rhein Fire, and Hamburg Sea Devils.

That being said, the bestest part of all:

Former NFL Coach Jim Tomsula is the current Head Coach for Rhein Fire.

Looking through the ELF's website, it appears the Vienna Vikings won it all last year, which I will totally not use to mock my fellow Minnesotans in the months to come.

YT doing a promo where you save $100 on Sunday Ticket if you sign up by 6/6.

Save $160 if you bundle YT TV.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

That being said, the bestest part of all:

Former NFL Coach Jim Tomsula is the current Head Coach for Rhein Fire.

He was head coach of Rhein Fire back in 2006 as well. That was his jumping off point to the NFL - he left after 1 year to take the 49ers defensive line coach job, and we all know where things went from there.

*Legion* wrote:

The market for Hopkins is already cooling down.

Hopkins has noticed.

A couple weeks ago, he was rattling off a list of the QBs he wanted to play with.

Now, Hopkins is willing to play with any QB.

Supposedly, an NFL exec said his team would be willing to take Hopkins at 1 year, $2 million, but not more. Just to give us a glimpse of how low some teams are valuing Hopkins.

I think he'll do better than that, but he's figured out he's gonna need to court the entire league to get anything close to the deal he wants.

Prederick wrote:

Got turned onto Brett Kollman this spring, and the content.... it is good.

If you like Xs and Os football content, some YT channels that belong on your subscription list:

JT O'Sullivan's The QB School. If you want to see how the game is looked at from inside a QB room, far away from the hot takes and overreactions.

Alex Rollins. Probably the next closest thing to Kollmann's style.

Thinking Football. Pretty no-nonsense film breakdowns.

Samuel Gold ("Sam's Film Room"). Really good film breakdowns, seems to get overlooked a bit in discussions about these types of channels.

Jonnydel's Football Academy. I skip over the podcast content, but the film breakdown videos are good. Only catch with this one is that it focuses entirely on the 49ers, but the Shanahan playbook is an endless source of content for this kind of channel.

Baldy Breakdowns playlist on the official NFL's channel. Following the full NFL channel will flood your subscriptions, but you can selectively add this playlist.

Kurt Warner QB Confidential. Decent film breakdowns but Warner's presentation abilities leave much to be desired. At least he doesn't sound like he's talking into a 2009 webcam microphone anymore.