[Discussion] Ukraine - Russian Invasion and Discussion

A place for aggregated discussions of a possible conflict, it’s implications and effects, news updates and personal accounts if any. If the expected conflict kicks off, I will change the title but the function will stay the same.

Badferret wrote:
Paleocon wrote:
Badferret wrote:

Too early to know for sure, but there is a lot of smoke that the situation in Bakhmut is changing in Ukraine's favor.

It has a very Helm’s Deep feel to it, doesn’t it?

What with the Ukrainians fondness with using Tolkien references, I'd be shocked if some of their battle plans didn't have names like, Operation First Light, or Fifth Day.

Or calling the relieving armored force the Riders of Rohan.

And apparently they're getting missiles from the UK called "Storm Shadow." So, on top of the Star Wars and Tolkien references this war is conjuring up, now we're on to G.I. Joe.

Operation 2nd breakfast!

Russian troops fall back to ‘defensive positions’ near Bakhmut

Russia’s defence ministry has said some of its troops have fallen back “to more advantageous defensive positions” near a reservoir north-west of the city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine.

The statement on Friday was the first admission by Moscow that Ukraine was successfully recapturing ground around Bakhmut, a largely destroyed city with a pre-war population of about 70,000 that Russia has been trying to conquer for more than 10 months.

The Russian defence statement came hours after Kyiv said that its forces had advanced by about 2km (1.2 miles) around Bakhmut this week.

Hanna Maliar, Ukraine’s deputy defence minister, said on Friday: “The enemy suffered great losses of manpower. Our defenders advanced 2km in the Bakhmut sector. We did not lose a single position in Bakhmut this week.”

Meanwhile, Russia’s foreign ministry condemned the UK for supplying Ukraine with the long-range Storm Shadow cruise missiles that Kyiv wants to boost its chances in a counteroffensive – the first western country to do so.

Echoing comments from the Kremlin on Thursday, the foreign ministry said it considered “London’s decision to transfer Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine a hostile act leading to a serious escalation”. Moscow has said the UK’s move will require an “adequate response” from Russia.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who earlier this week said his forces needed more time before launching a major counteroffensive, also said Kyiv’s forces had pushed back Russian positions “on several directions”, without specifying where.

“Ukraine is much stronger now than last year or in any other year of this war for freedom and independence of our country,” the Ukrainian president said in a separate post on Twitter.

A'yup. Sure seems like this guy has their SAMs a wee bit twitchy.

IMAGE(https://bbts1.azureedge.net/images/p/full/2021/10/7a98e8dc-a8e2-495a-8396-a0b6b6d48022.jpg)

Badferret wrote:

A'yup. Sure seems like this guy has their SAMs a wee bit twitchy.

IMAGE(https://bbts1.azureedge.net/images/p/full/2021/10/7a98e8dc-a8e2-495a-8396-a0b6b6d48022.jpg)

There is still a good deal of speculation regarding what it was that brought those aircraft down. Some folks are saying it was Ukrainian air defense or fighter aircraft, but considering they were shot down some 50 miles from the border and probably closer to 70-100 miles from Ukrainian air defense batteries, that seems unlikely. As ridiculous as it sounds, the more plausible explanation is friendly fire on a massive scale.

This is also in the same general area of the front where two Ukrainian Mi-24 Hind helicopters snuck across the border and annihilated a Russian fuel depot last year, so I imagine tensions are a little high in the wake of all the "impending counteroffensive" talk. Also, considering how fragmented command and control has been, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Russian deconfliction between air and air defense assets is less than completely accurate. Reports from earlier in the war stated that a large part of the reason the Russian Air Force has been largely MIA has been because of the failure of such deconfliction and the concerns over friendly fire.

Ukrainian milbloggers appear to be claiming responsibility and the Russians are quick to state that this was the result of hostile fire, but my gut tells me that isn't right.

Interesting.

So it appears that in the last 48 hours, Ukrainian forces in or near Bakhmut have taken over positions held by the Russians on the northern and southern flanks of the attempted encirclement. Reports and videos show Russian troops abandoning their positions and fleeing even before contact.

Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu stated that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian offenses, but voluntarily retreated to more defensible positions. Considering how large groups of Russians were encircled and eliminated and how weapons and ammunition caches were hastily abandoned, that explanation seems unlikely. In fact, Wagner leader Prigozhin flat out stated it was a lie and that Russian forces had fled some 3km in the last 24 hours.

Both Prigozhin and Shoigu, however, agree that this is the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, an allegation that Zelenskyy and Zeluzny deny. Zelenskyy states that the Ukrainians lack sufficient western arms to begin the counteroffensive and will need to wait until delivery of promised weapons arrive.

I am inclined to believe the Ukrainians here. It is more likely that the Russian offensives in Bakhmut and Avdivka and the Svatove Kremina line have fully culminated and even the recon by force of Ukrainians are using to exercise dynamic defense are having serious impacts on Russian positions. In that sense, I predict that the Russian positions will likely retract to linear (surrendering the salients that form the attempted encirclement), but will not collapse entirely. The latter would require the commitment of Ukrainian reserves to exploit Russian disorganization and I don't think this is where Ukraine wishes to commit its forces.

Paleo, both sides air defenses extend well into the other's country. That makes low-level border operations a tough nut for either side.

There's speculation that the two helicopters were EW variants, providing electronic cover for missile launches by the Sukhois. Russia started the war with only 20 of those EW helos, meaning that it's quite possible that they lost 10% of their capability in a day. A possibility is that they were working, and were targeted by HARMs while in the air, an "off-label" use that could be quite effective if UKR AD killers were operating in the air.

A lot has been made of all the positions RUS has set up. But those positions still have to be supplied with troops willing/able to hold ground, communicate with each other, have food and ammo to be able to fight, and finally need fuel to get all those things to them.

I am not so sure RUS has shown they can do any of those support activities.

Prigozhin offered to reveal positions of Russian forces if Ukrainian troops withdrew from Bakhmut.

In late January, with his mercenary forces dying by the thousands in a fight for the ruined city of Bakhmut, Wagner Group owner Yevgeniy Prigozhin made Ukraine an extraordinary offer.

Prigozhin said that if Ukraine’s commanders withdrew their soldiers from the area around Bakhmut, he would give Kyiv information on Russian troop positions, which Ukraine could use to attack them. Prigozhin conveyed the proposal to his contacts in Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate, with whom he has maintained secret communications during the course of the war, according to previously unreported U.S. intelligence documents leaked on the group-chat platform Discord.

Someone is going to fall down a flight of bullets.

I am listening to the Russian social scientist Ekaterina Schulmann talk about the national mentality of Russia since the invasion and challenges in understanding the polling data. Two points that really reached out at me though were 1) how the lack of interpersonal trust on all levels of Russian society has acted as a sort of speed governor and hard ceiling on Russian social and institutional development and 2) the term "reverse cargo cult" to describe how Russian tyrants like Putin have deliberately used internal strawman versions of things like elections to make his subjects believe that examples of the nominally similar institutions in other countries are similarly corrupt and/or meaningless.

She brought up the example of how Russians express extremely low levels of trust in institutions AND in their fellow subjects. They are unlikely, for instance, to utilize civil institutions for redress of grievances. Rates of personal violence are high as a result. This is particularly noteworthy because institutional trust is a VERY highly correlated consideration in functional societies, economic growth, and generally in advancement. It also informs overall social attitudes. Kazakhstan, in sharp comparison, though poorer has higher levels of trust on all levels. When polled, Kazakh citizens respond far more optimistically about their futures.

The "reverse cargo cult" is a concept I hadn't considered before, but now that I know of it, I see it practically everywhere (thanks to Robear's input) in American Republican ideology starting with Reagan's "the ten most dangerous words are 'I'm from the government and I'm here to help'" nonsense. And it speaks volumes to the affinity Republicans have to authoritarians like Putin. The building of their power depends on destroying institutions and the constructing of "reverse cargo cults" is instrumental in all of that.

See also the book "American Nations", which explains the cultural underpinnings of the 11 "founding nations" of the country. There are several in there that emphasize personal honor, revenge, distrust of authority (usually framed as "personal freedom"), fetishization of weapons as a means of "protection", and a strongly tribal culture with many, many out-groups to focus on as "threats". Appalachia, the West and the South are the biggest populations with these ultimately anti-social impulses built into the culture.

Someone in this thread said exactly this when Republican's were complaining about how much money we were sending to Ukraine (must have been months ago by now)

Accounting error frees $3 billion for Ukraine weapons assistance

The accounting error occurred because when the US transferred weaponry to Ukraine, they counted the value of replacing the weapon instead of the value of actual weapon, defense officials explained. That drove up the cost of each package – because new weaponry costs more than old weaponry – and resulted in the false assumption that more of the funding had been used.

and of course- because republicans are against whatever it is, even if in contradicts their previous stance...

The error – which lawmakers and congressional staffers were briefed on Thursday – triggered frustration from Republicans on the House Foreign Affairs and Armed Services committees. They believe the mistake reduced the amount of US support that went to Ukraine leading up to the counteroffensive.

“The revelation of a three-billion-dollar accounting error discovered two months ago and only today shared with Congress is extremely problematic, to say the least. These funds could have been used for extra supplies and weapons for the upcoming counteroffensive, instead of rationing funds to last for the remainder of the fiscal year,” wrote House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul and House Armed Services Chairman Mike Rogers in a statement Thursday.

We shouldn't be using dollar amounts anyway. Give them every old piece of equipment we aren't using as quickly as possible and do it yesterday!

What the f*ck does a dollar figure even mean on already made, sitting in a warehouse surplus?

Mixolyde wrote:

We shouldn't be using dollar amounts anyway. Give them every old piece of equipment we aren't using as quickly as possible and do it yesterday!

What the f*ck does a dollar figure even mean on already made, sitting in a warehouse surplus?

I agree that we should be giving them practically everything in the boneyard, but the accounting matters even if it is currently being used as a weapon by the deliberately evil on the woefully ill informed.

Paleocon wrote:
Mixolyde wrote:

We shouldn't be using dollar amounts anyway. Give them every old piece of equipment we aren't using as quickly as possible and do it yesterday!

What the f*ck does a dollar figure even mean on already made, sitting in a warehouse surplus?

I agree that we should be giving them practically everything in the boneyard, but the accounting matters even if it is currently being used as a weapon by the deliberately evil on the woefully ill informed.

Yeah, but the accounting is just how many we have and how many we are giving away. It's already been paid.

Also, considering the US Military can't pass an audit and can't accurately count what it has and how much it paid for it anyway, it's all kind of moot.

Mixolyde wrote:
Paleocon wrote:
Mixolyde wrote:

We shouldn't be using dollar amounts anyway. Give them every old piece of equipment we aren't using as quickly as possible and do it yesterday!

What the f*ck does a dollar figure even mean on already made, sitting in a warehouse surplus?

I agree that we should be giving them practically everything in the boneyard, but the accounting matters even if it is currently being used as a weapon by the deliberately evil on the woefully ill informed.

Yeah, but the accounting is just how many we have and how many we are giving away. It's already been paid.

Also, considering the US Military can't pass an audit and can't accurately count what it has and how much it paid for it anyway, it's all kind of moot.

Not taking the accounting seriously is how you end up with Viktor Bout and the hollowing out of the Russian military. If there is a cautionary tale in this, it is how poorly Russia is doing now in Ukraine. Much of that has to do with not taking accounting seriously.

edit: Also. When Eric Prince is the biggest proponent of the "write it all off and send it" accounting, it is time to take a pause and consider how sh*theads like him will profit from it.

This is so funny.

It's Accounting 101 (Accounting 98?) stuff that every Finance Accountant 2 in a government fiscal office knows about. Surplus in government is a well-understood practice. This isn't f*cking Blockchain or metaverse or ChatGPT.

Like, which deputy CFO at the Pentagon, OMB, NSA or even a staffer on one of the oversight committees didn't understand this?

It has literally been talked about in forums like this for over a year.

  • no HIMARS
  • no Bradleys
  • no Leopards or Abrams
  • no Patriots
  • no cruise missiles
  • no F-16s

Pleased we're finally moving past this, still annoyed that we have to do this dance every time.

we are still on

No ATACMS

AMRAAM?

Paleocon wrote:

we are still on

No ATACMS

Which is especially dumb since Ukraine has Storm Shadows now.

MOABs?

Hungary steps up threat to block EU weapons aid for Ukraine

Hungary has stepped up threats to block further EU funds for weapons to aid Ukraine, marring a show of unity from western nations at the G7 summit.

The Hungarian foreign minister, Péter Szijjártó, has said his government will block a further €500m from the European peace facility, a fund used to reimburse EU member states that supply military aid to Ukraine, unless Kyiv removes Hungary’s OTP Bank from its list of war sponsors.

Speaking on Thursday, Szijjártó also said the EU’s latest Russia sanctions plan was “fully contrary to common sense” and that the previous 10 had failed, according to a report on a Hungarian government website. EU diplomats say Hungary has threatened to veto the 11th package of sanctions over OTP Bank, a move Budapest has often threatened but never carried out.

The comments contrast with the show of unity the richest industrial nations want to project at the G7 summit in Hiroshima, where the US and UK have announced further sanctions against Russia. Hungary’s threats are likely to overshadow a meeting of EU foreign ministers on Monday and the bloc’s ongoing talks on its latest Russia sanctions.

Hungary has claimed it is blocking the latest tranche of European peace facility funds because the initiative was designed to enhance Europe’s global security and was not to be used exclusively in Ukraine.

One senior EU diplomat said that argument was a “bit disingenuous”, adding: “The timing is miserable because Ukraine is on the eve of a large offensive to try to push back the Russian aggression. It does make me wonder if there is not a much more narrow economic interest.”

Budapest has also drawn a link with Kyiv’s addition of Hungary’s OTP Bank to its international sponsors of war list, a group that includes five Greek companies, four Chinese, four French, three US and one British entity.

While EU diplomats are irritated by Hungary’s linkage of the issues, there is also frustration with Kyiv. “Ukraine should always ask itself: do our actions help us or does it make stuff more difficult?” the EU diplomat said, adding that it was still the “wrong approach” from Hungary.

I just recently made the observation to a friend that in the last 50 years, the overwhelming verdict of military history appears to be that the Russian/Soviet philosophy of war making has been completely refuted as an efficacious approach. We were surprised when the Israelis, using SHERMAN TANKS for gods stakes massacred the best kit the Soviets were willing to sell the Arabs. We were shocked at the rapidity with which a largely untested US led heavy armored force absolutely ROFLstomped Saddam's battle hardened military. We were less surprised at how our second dip into the Iraq demonstrated the fragility of Saddam's military. The examples are almost too numerous to count. Every time a Russian patterned conventional military faced off against a Western one, it exceeded expectations in only its capacity to sustain massive casualties.

The world assumed, rather racistly, that this was because brown skinned despots lacked the fighting spirit and discipline of European counterparts, but the evidence of Russian failure appears to put paid to that. If anything, Saddam's troops performed better in just about every measurable aspect than the Russians in Ukraine.

This has me thinking that the military philosophy that has provided the foundation of Russian/Soviet build policy, training, and systems development has demonstrated no real world efficacy against even a marginally Western patterned opponent. Ukraine's 8 years of underfunded transformation and NATO garage sale equipment comes far short of an actual NATO order of battle. As valiantly as they have performed, they are 20 years away from being NATO standard.

Considering this, military leaders and strategists in India and China have got to be soiling their undergarments regarding how pot committed they are to this "near peer" military build approach that is turning out to be mostly bluster. I imagine that there are huge debates going on in both countries concerning whether to wake up and smell the bullsh*t or to choose to comfortably ignore 50 years of military history punctuated by this most decisive recent example.

My guess is that the latter will prevail.

The US MIC will also ignore it. They certainly won't admit they're grossly over-equipped and over-funded for the current threats.

Paleocon wrote:

Every time a Russian patterned conventional military faced off against a Western one, it exceeded expectations in only its capacity to sustain massive casualties.

AMRAAMs?

MOABs are only usable in highly specific tactical situations, in particular terrain (canyons, caves, etc) when you have complete air superiority. In Ukraine, a C-130 is not going to last long near the front lines. Additionally only 15 were made. Definitely not a weapon that should appear in Ukraine, especially when hyperbaric rockets are available in quantity.

Robear wrote:

AMRAAMs?

MOABs are only usable in highly specific tactical situations, in particular terrain (canyons, caves, etc) when you have complete air superiority. In Ukraine, a C-130 is not going to last long near the front lines. Additionally only 15 were made. Definitely not a weapon that should appear in Ukraine, especially when hyperbaric rockets are available in quantity.

Don't crush my dreams, bro!