[Discussion] Ukraine - Russian Invasion and Discussion

A place for aggregated discussions of a possible conflict, it’s implications and effects, news updates and personal accounts if any. If the expected conflict kicks off, I will change the title but the function will stay the same.

Here's the Institute for the Study of War on the year-long delays in sending better weapons platforms:

ISW wrote:

Delays in the provision to Ukraine of Western long-range fires systems, advanced air defense systems, and tanks have limited Ukraine’s ability to take advantage of opportunities for larger counter-offensive operations presented by flaws and failures in Russian military operations. Western discussions of supposed “stalemate” conditions and the difficulty or impossibility of Ukraine regaining significant portions of the territory Russia seized in 2022 insufficiently account for how Western delays in providing necessary military equipment have exacerbated those problems. Slow authorization and arrival of aid have not been the only factors limiting Ukraine’s ability to launch continued large-scale counter-offensive operations. Factors endogenous to the Ukrainian military and Ukrainian political decision-making have also contributed to delaying counteroffensives. ISW is not prepared to assess that all Ukrainian military decisions have been optimal. (ISW does not, in fact, assess Ukrainian military decision-making in these updates at all. Yet, as historians, we have not observed flawless military decision-making in any war.) But Ukraine does not have a significant domestic military industry to turn to in the absence of Western support. Western hesitancy to supply weapons during wartime took insufficient account of the predictable requirement to shift Ukraine from Soviet to Western systems as soon as the West committed to helping Ukraine fight off Russia's 2022 invasion.

Yup. I sincerely hope they start training Ukrainian pilots and crews ASAP with F-16's and transfer them over immediately after their training is completed. Also, they need to cover the landscape with GLSDB, ATACMS, cluster bombs, air defense, and tanks. They really need to get Russia defeated by next Spring at the latest because a possible Republican presidency is going to truly f*ck them.

Looks like it is no Falcons for now. I hope they are still training pilots and ground crews though so when they do get to yes there won't be much of a delay.

Paleocon wrote:

Looks like it is no Falcons for now. I hope they are still training pilots and ground crews though so when they do get to yes there won't be much of a delay.

Don't worry! The strategy is to delay sending them...and then do it anyway, later.

This achieves...not "escalating" with RUS. RUS consistently responds to this magnanimity by gradually reducing troop levels, refraining from targeting civilians, negotiating in good faith, and systematically withdrawing from UKR territory.

It also achieves the policy goal of, "Don't piss off RUS into using nukes" as evidenced by the fact that we see no nukes on the battlefield. The policy is working, just like Lisa's anti-tiger rock.

There is the issue that American F-16s do not have drag chutes like the export models, which are used to slow the aircraft on shorter runways, like the ones in Ukraine built during the Soviet era.

Paleocon wrote:

Looks like it is no Falcons for now. I hope they are still training pilots and ground crews though so when they do get to yes there won't be much of a delay.

Yeah...we never started training Ukrainian pilots and ground crews because the FY23 National Defense Authorization Act was the first time Congress allocated any money for such a thing and it was just signed into law right before Christmas.

What *Poland* did or did not do was their own business, however...

Russian forces could regain initiative as Ukraine war drags on

A fresh Russian assault around the southern Donbas town of Vuhledar, which began towards the end of January, demonstrates that Moscow’s forces are becoming more capable before a critical – and increasingly uncertain – spring period.

Russian forces have not yet made significant gains across the open fields of the region, where the Ukrainians have been dug in for months. But in parallel with the seemingly never-ending Wagner Group-led assault on Bakhmut, 70 miles to the north-east, it shows the invaders trying to push forward at a second point.

Until now the conventional view has been that Ukraine holds the initiative in the near-year-long war, following Russia’s hasty and chaotic retreat from Izium in September and the better organised withdrawal from Kherson two months after. But some experts argue that is no longer the case, and the situation is more finely balanced.

Not buying that RUS will do a whole lot with masses of infantry and artillery that appears to be in shorter supply than before. And against an opponent that will soon be able to reach even further into it's rear.

RUS figured out how to use armor in the field? They improved their logistics situation?

I guess if UKR runs out of troops or ammo, sure. But human wave attacks for months to gain a couple kilometers? That doesn't sound like, "has the initiative."

What has changed?

UKR may be tired.
RUS has more troops than before.
RUS has fewer shells (or is husbanding them).
UKR munition stocks dwindling?

Perun did whole thing this morning on resupply and "escalation" that sort of predicts outcomes based on Western actions.

One of the points that he brings up near the end is how escalation works and how the West is thinking about it entirely wrong. As he puts it "escalation is not the same as being pissed off". Yes, there is a lot of stuff we could give the Ukrainians that will make Putin teh madz, but nothing we have given or can give them will result in a widening of the conflict or a nuclear response. Folks might point to the Russian mobilization as an "escalation", but that would be wrong as well. More to the point, it was a step in response to LOSING THE WAR. Not to any specific aid we provided.

In fact and in sharp contrast to Western thinking, the one thing actually driving anything we can describe as escalation from Putin is the hope, no matter how remote, that he can win. And that is supported by our hesitance to provide the aid that would make a decisive victory against him possible. He believes (not without evidence) that he can outlast Western resolve and get his way by simply outlasting Western leaders and Western patience with the war. It is for that reason that his bots are so busy spinning the transparent falsehood that the US has spent "$300billion" in Ukraine.

If we want to avoid "escalation", we need Putin to lose quickly.

Good breakdown of how RUS tactics work and the near total lack of modern communications.

https://wavellroom.com/2023/02/01/an...

article wrote:

Communications are fundamental to everything an army does. In February, a Russian Army was sent into Ukraine with incoherent and unfit tactical radio systems. This is why the story of the Russian Army has been hundreds of disjointed and wasteful company and platoon-level operations, such as the action described in this vignette. It is the reason why the Russian Army had been unable to coordinate brigade or divisional operations. This author could not improve on the verdict of the prolific and irate Russian defence writer Roman Skomorokhov:

‘…the SVO [‘special military operation’] perfectly shows that BTG (battalion tactical groups) in the modern conditions of Ukraine and with the current state of communications in the Russian army (at the level of the 60s of the last century) and reinforced brigades are simply nothing… with zero level of joint interaction of troops, without modern intelligence and control, [and] simply not capable of solving problems in the modern theater of Ukraine

Top_Shelf wrote:

Good breakdown of how RUS tactics work and the near total lack of modern communications.

https://wavellroom.com/2023/02/01/an...

article wrote:

Communications are fundamental to everything an army does. In February, a Russian Army was sent into Ukraine with incoherent and unfit tactical radio systems. This is why the story of the Russian Army has been hundreds of disjointed and wasteful company and platoon-level operations, such as the action described in this vignette. It is the reason why the Russian Army had been unable to coordinate brigade or divisional operations. This author could not improve on the verdict of the prolific and irate Russian defence writer Roman Skomorokhov:

‘…the SVO [‘special military operation’] perfectly shows that BTG (battalion tactical groups) in the modern conditions of Ukraine and with the current state of communications in the Russian army (at the level of the 60s of the last century) and reinforced brigades are simply nothing… with zero level of joint interaction of troops, without modern intelligence and control, [and] simply not capable of solving problems in the modern theater of Ukraine

ISW and others have pointed out that it isn't just limited to units within the Russian military. If you look at the ragtag force that Putin has brought to this war, it is hard business to determine how command authority flows from anything approaching central coordination. There are literally dozens of different fighting organizations involved with their own independent command hierarchies.

The Russian Army
The Wagner PMC
The military of the Luhansk Peoples Republic
The military of the Donetsk Peoples Republic
Rosgvardia
The Sparta Battalion
Regional Volunteer Battalions
The Kadyrovites

The list goes on and on and on and on and on....

It appears that Gerasimov is attempting to make *some* effort at present to create a unified command hierarchy, but no one appears to have much optimism of it actually succeeding. And this isn't exactly the sort of thing a military learns on the job.

If you think about it, there's no common interest in their chain of command.

There are those that want Putin to succeed...and those who might prosper more if he fails.

On top of that, the more disorganised they are, the less likely they'll be pressed into serious offensives. Now they can send a few thousand men ineffectively every so often and sit back behind the front and deny any responsibility blaming it on other causes such as inadequate equipment or lack of fire support.

To my mind, it's incredible the supposed might of RUS has and continues to be held back through a hodge podge combination of small arms, intel and pre-1980s mothballed donations. I mean, we're focusing on battalion level battles at a micro level rather than sweeping whole of battlefield manoeuvers. Imagine how quickly the RUS war effort would have been crushed if the opposing tech and capability was 2000+ era equipment. Their supply chains would have been decimated in the first weeks of conflict and there would have been no coming back from it (except to eat long range strikes beyond artillery counter-fire).

It is also a worthwhile observation that a significant portion of their overall manpower comes from conscripting effectively the entire male population of Luhansk and Donetsk. And the setup of nominally independent peoples republics makes using those troops in other (or even one another’s) theaters problematic. Not impossible but problematic. This lack of flexibility has pretty much dictated where Russia is able to conduct offensive military operations. They are able to send probes into the Zaporizhia region but are unable to manage the human waves that have gained them their precious 10 meters per day.

Notorious Russian nationalist Igor Mangushev shot dead in Ukraine

Notorious Russian army captain and mercenary Igor Mangushev has died in hospital, days after he was shot in the head at close range in occupied Ukraine, his friends have said.

Mangushev's wife Tatyana described his killing as an execution.

He commanded an anti-drone unit in occupied Luhansk, but had also been one of the founders of a mercenary group fighting Ukrainian forces in 2014.

He took to a stage last summer holding a man's skull.

In a video posted on social media in August, Mangushev was filmed saying the skull belonged to a Ukrainian fighter killed defending the Azovstal steel works in the southern port of Mariupol.

An extreme nationalist, Mangushev said Russia was not at war with people, but with an idea of Ukraine as an "anti-Russian state", and it did not matter how many Ukrainians died.

Mangushev emerged from a neo-Nazi movement to co-found private mercenary group Yenot (raccoon).

He was later known to have collaborated with Russia's most notorious mercenary boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, as a political strategist.

The shooting has prompted widespread speculation about who might have carried out the attack at a checkpoint in the occupied Ukrainian town of Kadiivka, some distance from the frontline.

Russian reports said he had been shot at close range with a 9mm bullet fired into the top of his head at an angle of 45 degrees. Russian authorities are investigating the killing and have so far said nothing about the circumstances.

The bullet had reportedly lodged in his brain. Before he died, pictures showed him lying in a hospital bed.

Another extreme Russian nationalist, Pavel Gubarev, said everyone knew who was behind the shooting and observed that Prigozhin had for the moment gone quiet.

The 11-month war in Ukraine has energised the murky world of extremists in Russia and sparked rivalries between them.

After the attack, Russia expert Mark Galeotti said it demonstrated that Russia was sliding back towards aspects of the 1990s, "when murder was a business tactic, and the lines between politics, business, crime and war became near-meaningless".

Prederick wrote:

Notorious Russian nationalist Igor Mangushev shot dead in Ukraine

Notorious Russian army captain and mercenary Igor Mangushev has died in hospital, days after he was shot in the head at close range in occupied Ukraine, his friends have said.

Mangushev's wife Tatyana described his killing as an execution.

He commanded an anti-drone unit in occupied Luhansk, but had also been one of the founders of a mercenary group fighting Ukrainian forces in 2014.

He took to a stage last summer holding a man's skull.

In a video posted on social media in August, Mangushev was filmed saying the skull belonged to a Ukrainian fighter killed defending the Azovstal steel works in the southern port of Mariupol.

An extreme nationalist, Mangushev said Russia was not at war with people, but with an idea of Ukraine as an "anti-Russian state", and it did not matter how many Ukrainians died.

Mangushev emerged from a neo-Nazi movement to co-found private mercenary group Yenot (raccoon).

He was later known to have collaborated with Russia's most notorious mercenary boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, as a political strategist.

The shooting has prompted widespread speculation about who might have carried out the attack at a checkpoint in the occupied Ukrainian town of Kadiivka, some distance from the frontline.

Russian reports said he had been shot at close range with a 9mm bullet fired into the top of his head at an angle of 45 degrees. Russian authorities are investigating the killing and have so far said nothing about the circumstances.

The bullet had reportedly lodged in his brain. Before he died, pictures showed him lying in a hospital bed.

Another extreme Russian nationalist, Pavel Gubarev, said everyone knew who was behind the shooting and observed that Prigozhin had for the moment gone quiet.

The 11-month war in Ukraine has energised the murky world of extremists in Russia and sparked rivalries between them.

After the attack, Russia expert Mark Galeotti said it demonstrated that Russia was sliding back towards aspects of the 1990s, "when murder was a business tactic, and the lines between politics, business, crime and war became near-meaningless".

Couldn't happen to a nicer neo nazi.

Well, I mean, it could happen to Prigozhin...

Robear wrote:

Well, I mean, it could happen to Prigozhin... :-)

From the sounds of it, it WAS Prigozhin. At least that is what the nazi's wife seems to think.

Sounds like the RUS offensive has started in earnest. UKR claiming 2000 RUS KIA total last two days, among with a big uptick in daily vehicle losses.

Will see.

Top_Shelf wrote:

Sounds like the RUS offensive has started in earnest. UKR claiming 2000 RUS KIA total last two days, among with a big uptick in daily vehicle losses.

Will see.

Yup. That squares with what ISW has observed. Looks like the meat of the Russian offensive is in Luhansk along the Svatove-Kremina Line and it looks like it is the beginning phases with much heavier fighting yet to come. It looks like they are taking seriously Putin's deadline to take all of Luhansk and Donetsk before March 1. The forces committed include the 2nd Motor Rifle Division and other elements of the regular army rather than volunteer battalions and PMCs, so this looks like a sincere effort. This will be a huge test for the Ukrainians. If they manage to hold and break the teeth of this offensive, the opportunity for a Summer counteroffensive will definitely be there.

More interesting are reports that Russian mobilized units are being transferred to the command authority of LNR and DNR units.  There are a number of implications of this, but the one most interesting to me is that it probably denotes a shortage of reliable and experienced officers in the regular army AND it likely confirms that they are unable to execute offensive operations along multiple operational axes.  This is a Donbas go for broke offensive.

Paleocon wrote:

More interesting are reports that Russian mobilized units are being transferred to the command authority of LNR and DNR units.  There are a number of implications of this, but the one most interesting to me is that it probably denotes a shortage of reliable and experienced officers in the regular army AND it likely confirms that they are unable to execute offensive operations along multiple operational axes.  This is a Donbas go for broke offensive.

So far this has only happened for a DNR artillery battalion which kinda makes sense in that LNR/DNR forces have been bled white by the Russians, especially in recent months. Russia's urgent demand for bodies after the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv led to some boneheaded decisions, like "retraining" separatist artillerists into assault troops which left those artillery battalions empty husks outside of their command staff.

This just gives those artillery battalions--which are essential to any Russian offensive--the manpower they need to be somewhat functional (that and LNR/DNR artillery officers have *way* more practical experience operating on this battlefield than newly minted or mobilized Russian officers).

But it does seem like the Russian MoD is trying to consolidate its control over all the forces in Ukraine.

Today Wagner's Prigozhin said that all of his recruitment efforts in Russian penal colonies have ceased which adds credibility to earlier reports that the MoD had taken over.

Prigozhin had been lobbying the Russian government hard to have anyone thrown in jail for being a refusenik handed over to Wagner. He had been pushing for that because word had finally gotten back to the penal colonies that the earlier volunteers were all dead (or worse) and few new prisoners were signing up. And that was supported by stats that showed Russia's prison population had stabilized last month after shedding tens of thousands in the fall.

Who needs the death penalty when you can throw criminals of all stripes into streams of bullets and artillery?

UK to train Ukrainian pilots.

I've seen informed takes that this is the first domino leading up to Ukraine getting fighter jets.

Basically, you don't train pilots, and have a picture taken with Zelensky in a flight suit if you aren't going to give planes.

Further speculation is Typhoons first, to help level the air-to-air playing-field, followed by EU countries giving F-16s.

OG_slinger wrote:

Prigozhin had been lobbying the Russian government hard to have anyone thrown in jail for being a refusenik handed over to Wagner. He had been pushing for that because word had finally gotten back to the penal colonies that the earlier volunteers were all dead (or worse) and few new prisoners were signing up. And that was supported by stats that showed Russia's prison population had stabilized last month after shedding tens of thousands in the fall.

Y'all watched that Andor show?

Spoiler:
fangblackbone wrote:

Who needs the death penalty when you can throw criminals of all stripes into streams of bullets and artillery?

Ukraine war: Belgorod locals live in fear but won't blame Putin

There's just... so much in this story.

The sounds of war are becoming routine at this market a few miles inside Russia's border with Ukraine. I hear explosions in the distance. But no-one flinches.

Just metres away other stalls have been reduced to twisted metal. They were hit by a mortar a few days before.

At the time the market was shut, so no-one was hurt. But many stalls remain closed and there's only a handful of customers. Sandbags are stacked up outside some of the buildings.

In many parts of Russia this feels like a virtual war: a conflict being played out on television, far from home. But in Russia's Belgorod region war feels very real and very close.

Raisa Alexandrovna, who sells sweets here, has lost her sense of security.

"No-one's protecting us," Raisa tells me. "When people go home at night, they don't know if they'll still be in one piece in the morning."

Everyone I speak to at the market tells me they live in fear of Ukrainian shelling. But they omit to mention that it was their country that invaded Ukraine.

They confirm that, one year, ago, life here was quiet and peaceful. Yet, they decline to join the dots and blame the Kremlin for what has transpired.

"We had to start this military operation," Raisa insists. "It's the right thing. We just should have been better prepared for it. We should have drafted people into the army right away. So many of our young men are dying. There'll be no one left for our women to marry."

"But what about the Ukrainians who've been killed because of Russia's invasion?" I ask.

"Yes, people on both sides have been killed," replies Raisa. "But the minds of Ukrainians have been altered. A new generation has grown up there hating Russians. We need to re-educate them. Re-make them."

In the city of Belgorod, the regional capital, a giant letter 'Z' - the symbol of Russia's military operation - has been erected along a busy highway. In recent months there have been explosions, too, in Belgorod, including at the airport, an oil depot and an apparent strike on a power plant. Suddenly residents are having to think about where to take cover. Shelters have been opened in cellars and in basements of apartment blocks.

Conversations here run similar to those at the market, with most people telling me: yes, security only became a problem after the invasion, but, no, they don't blame the invasion itself. It's as if there's a psychological firewall preventing people from connecting the deteriorating security situation to the decision of their president.

If there is a firewall, patriotic messaging feeds it.

Staring down from billboards and advertising hoardings in Belgorod are the portraits of decorated Russian soldiers who've been fighting in Ukraine. The images and slogans encourage the public to rally round the flag.

"Thank you for your heroic deeds!" reads one poster.

"For the Motherland!" declares another.

"Everything for the front line! Everything for victory!"

"Believe in Yourself, but Live for Russia!"

I mean, if I lived in Russia I sure as hell wouldn't openly tell a foreign news crew that it was all Russia's fault and the invasion was wrong. They still have to live in Russia after the cameras leave.

Stengah wrote:

I mean, if I lived in Russia I sure as hell wouldn't openly tell a foreign news crew that it was all Russia's fault and the invasion was wrong. They still have to live in Russia after the cameras leave.

Not for long, if there are any windows nearby.

Reports are emerging that most of the vehicles Russia lost in the failed Vuhledar tweet simply abandoned when the first shells started falling. It looks like the rumors that these were super well trained elite assault troops may have been exaggerated