[Discussion] Ukraine - Russian Invasion and Discussion

A place for aggregated discussions of a possible conflict, it’s implications and effects, news updates and personal accounts if any. If the expected conflict kicks off, I will change the title but the function will stay the same.

Seeing several variations of this pop up.

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/lEg1gpG.jpg)

This man has made me speechless...

No Leopard tanks for Ukraine as NATO allies fail to agree

The United States and its allies failed to agree on supplying coveted German battle tanks to Ukraine as Russia issued veiled threats the war could escalate in Europe.

NATO and defence leaders from about 50 countries met at the American Ramstein Air Base in Germany on Friday, the latest in a series of arms-pledging conferences since Russia invaded Ukraine 11 months ago.

European leaders at the meeting again pressed Germany to give the green light for the delivery of German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine to drive back Moscow’s forces – although no decision was made.

The failure to agree to provide the tanks may signal growing divisions within NATO over supplying such weapons.

Germany’s defence minister Boris Pistorius denied Berlin was unilaterally blocking the delivery of the Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, but said his government was ready to move quickly on the issue if there were consensus among allies.

“There are good reasons for the deliveries and there are good reasons against, and in view of the entire situation of a war that has been ongoing for almost one year, all pros and cons must be weighed very carefully,” he said, without elaborating on the reasons.

Pressure has been building on Berlin to provide tanks to Kyiv that Ukraine sees as key in the war against Russia.

The impression “there is a united coalition and that Germany is standing in the way is wrong”, Pistorius said, adding “there are many allies who say we share the view that I have put forward here.”

Can someone smarter than me explain the fine print here?

Experts estimate there are around 2,000 Leopard tanks in use by 13 countries across Europe, and they are increasingly being seen as vital to Ukraine’s war effort as the conflict grinds into a second year. But Berlin must grant these nations approval to re-export German-made tanks to Ukraine, and it has so far resisted calls to do so.

So a sovereign country purchases something but they don't really own it. This seems really silly to me. Is German afraid that they would get somehow be blamed if a weapon they made was used by a foreign country?

And what's stopping the other countries that have this equipment from just telling Germany to go suck eggs (Sauerkraut?) and give their equipment to Ukraine?

I am on expert but it makes a little bit of sense to me. If Germany doesn’t keep control of where that technology ends up then it could end up in North Korea because whoever they sold it to decides to share it with the North Koreans. I am sure that the contracts that they signed when selling these tags to them included very strict rules about where and how those tanks and their systems could be shared.

This was also an issue around half a year ago - Switzerland was blocking any Gepard ammunition manufactured in Switzerland from being sent to Ukraine.

JC wrote:

And what's stopping the other countries that have this equipment from just telling Germany to go suck eggs (Sauerkraut?) and give their equipment to Ukraine?

Poland publicly suggested it might tell Germany to suck eggs soon...
It has already started to diversify its sources of military equipment by buying South Korean armor (and is building capabilities to manufacture said armor under license), which might mean more European countries using South Korean K2s in the future that would have otherwise been purchasing EU designed vehicles.

I don't think it's really surprising that for military hardware the origin country puts in holds around the equipment being passed on.

I'm not really grasping the hesitation in this situation. I haven't dug in deeper but high level is it just fear around Russian threats?

Or is Germany holding out for some other concession with their allies?

Anyways as already mentioned it's going to lead countries to source elsewhere which means there's producers in Germany that can't be happy.

I would be really surprised if US isn't doing the same in their arms deals?

As for Germany, I have a fair bit of sympathy if there is reluctance to be seen as the country that escalates a conflict (even when it is BS, since the only one escalating is of course Putin), given their history, but damn, this is too much.

Shadout wrote:

I would be really surprised if US isn't doing the same in their arms deals?

As for Germany, I have a fair bit of sympathy if there is reluctance to be seen as the country that escalates a conflict (even when it is BS, since the only one escalating is of course Putin), given their history, but damn, this is too much.

I'm sure every country does it unless it's marginal stuff.

As for being seen as the escalator. That's what allies + NATO are for. UK, France, US, Canada Poland etc are on board and are supplying so it's not like they are asking Germany to go out alone on this.

maverickz wrote:

It's ITAR
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inte...

But isn't ITAR just for the US? I don't see anything in there that says it's part of a larger nation type thing? Or are you saying that Germany has something similar to this in place?

JC wrote:
maverickz wrote:

It's ITAR
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inte...

But isn't ITAR just for the US? I don't see anything in there that says it's part of a larger nation type thing? Or are you saying that Germany has something similar to this in place?

Export control is complicated and can absolutely include resale provisions, especially with military or dual-purpose goods. The US is generally the strictest, but other countries also have some similar control expectations.

The thing that prevents other countries from “telling Germany to suck eggs” Is a desire to continue doing business with Germany. As with any bilateral agreement, either side can unilaterally break it - once.

Source: I work for Airbus, and there is lots of mandatory training on this stuff.

JC wrote:
maverickz wrote:

It's ITAR
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inte...

But isn't ITAR just for the US? I don't see anything in there that says it's part of a larger nation type thing? Or are you saying that Germany has something similar to this in place?

ITAR is a US law. Other Western countries have similar policies in place.

There is also the Wassenaar Arrangement
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wass...

Amusing note, Russia is a member.

Shadout wrote:

As for Germany, I have a fair bit of sympathy if there is reluctance to be seen as the country that escalates a conflict (even when it is BS, since the only one escalating is of course Putin), given their history, but damn, this is too much.

I think this nails it. It's the false thinking (my opinion) that violence, in and of itself, is wrong. Therefore, getting too close to violence is inherently escalatory and carries with it all kinds of consequences, real and moral. Given German history, I am sympathetic to German leaders' hesitancy about their relationship with force/violence and the impacts on their neighbors.

Violence, in the defense of victims, is morally good (my opinion). I wish more folks saw this situation as clearly as the Baltics, Poland, Finland, Sweden and others who are truly threatened by Moscow.

Stand up to this aggression, send the tanks!

New word of the day, "shilly-shallying"

Call it whatever you like but it is at best moral cowardice and greed

Polls show that most Germans are in favour of tanks for Ukraine. Two of the three parties that make up the ruling coalition, along with all the major opposition parties, are in favour, and so are many in the SPD. There's a protest in front of the Bundestag right now in favour of tanks for Ukraine. But Chancellor Scholz just won't budge. Nobody seems to know why; people I'm hearing from in Germany are just as baffled as the rest of us. Some are suggesting that it's because he wants to get back to doing profitable business with Russia, but I haven't heard any actual evidence for that beyond "how else would you explain it?"

tl,dr: It's not Germany, it's Scholz.

Which polls are showing that? What I could find looked more like 50/50, at best, which seems fairly low.
Edit: If asked if other countries should be able to deliver German tanks, the approval does seem much higher though.

It really should be both though. Hopefully Scholz crumbles under the pressure soon.

I could care less if Germany provides their own Leopards. The German military procurement system is so dysfunctional that giving up 40 of their own Leopards would take 100 years to replace at a cost so high it would crater the German economy. But restricting the transfer of Poland's or Denmark's Leopards is nothing but pure, unadulterated moral cowardice.

Looks like there is a muntiny going on. Germany ‘would not stand in way’ of Poland sending tanks.

At best it's a postion Scholz can live with giving him plausible deniablity and at worst he's lost control of his own government. You have to think Scholz is comprimsed one way ot the other.

Anyway, Ukraine is getting Leopard 2s and it sounds like Leclercs are not too far behind

Leclercs? Like the F1 driver?

And I can't look at at Scholz's name without thinking of stinky feet.

Hockosi wrote:

Leclercs? Like the F1 driver?

Those Leopards won't drive themselves.

Yeah. While this is potentially a “good” outcome, the answer itself smells like so much grade school bullsh*t.

Germany would not stop Poland from sending Leopard 2 combat tanks to Ukraine if asked, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock told French Television LCI on Sunday.

“The question has not been asked. If we were asked the question, we would not stand in the way,“ Baerbock said in an interview on the sides of a French-German cabinet meeting celebrating 60 years of the Elysée treaty

Axon wrote:
Hockosi wrote:

Leclercs? Like the F1 driver?

Those Leopards won't drive themselves.

The absolute last goddamn thing Ukraine needs is Ferrari in charge of maintenance or strategy.

Prederick wrote:
Axon wrote:
Hockosi wrote:

Leclercs? Like the F1 driver?

Those Leopards won't drive themselves.

The absolute last goddamn thing Ukraine needs is Ferrari in charge of maintenance or strategy.

There's a bug in the forum. I can only give this one like!

Axon wrote:
Hockosi wrote:

Leclercs? Like the F1 driver?

Those Leopards won't drive themselves.

Does Tesla make any tanks?

iaintgotnopants wrote:
Axon wrote:
Hockosi wrote:

Leclercs? Like the F1 driver?

Those Leopards won't drive themselves.

Does Tesla make any tanks?

I mean, Musk claims the Cybertruck is bulletproof.

Nevin73 wrote:
iaintgotnopants wrote:
Axon wrote:
Hockosi wrote:

Leclercs? Like the F1 driver?

Those Leopards won't drive themselves.

Does Tesla make any tanks?

I mean, Musk claims the Cybertruck is bulletproof.

So no, then.