NFL 2022: The playoffs thread

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Just five months ago, we were led to think that the Bills, Bucs and Rams were the cream of the NFL crop and that the Vikings, Seahawks, Lions (who should have made the playoffs because FUN), Jags and Giants would lurk among the bottom third of the league.

Eighteen weeks later, we've learned that most folks had the Bears, Falcons and Texans correctly pegged as trash but were wrong about a lot of other stuff. I mean, here's Peter King predicting that the Saints would win the NFC and that the Packers would be in the Super Bowl. (To his credit, he had the Packers losing to the Bills. But everyone had the Bills as their preseason No. 1.

So now it's Playoffs SZN. Let's get to it.

WILD CARD WEEKEND SCHEDULE
The big change this year: There's a Monday night game (and one less Saturday game). But the NFL didn't do much to keep TCU out of the playoffs; two of the six games are predicted to be blowouts, and a couple of others are leaning that way. Only one of these games (Chargers-Jags) actually seems compelling. But I'll watch the hell out of the it because football.

Here's the schedule (with the win probabilities from 538.com and game odds and over/unders from CBS Sports):

Saturday
4:30p: Seahawks at Niners
TV: Fox (Joe Davis, Daryl Johnston)
Favorite: Niners -10 (81% win probability); O/U 43

8:15p: Chargers at Jaguars (NBC)
TV: NBC (Al Michaels, Tony Dungy?!?)
Favorite: Chargers (Jags +1, 60%); O/U 47.5

Sunday
1p: Dolphins at Bills
TV: CBS (Nantz & Romo)
Favorite: Bills -10.5 (95%); O/U 43.5

4:30p: Giants at Vikings
TV: Fox (Kevin Burkhardt and Greg Olsen; a great duo)
Favorite: Vikings -3 (67%); O/U 48.5

8:15p: Ravens at Bengals (NBC)
TV: NBC (Tirico & Collinsworth)
Favorite: Bengals -6.5 (80%); O/U 43.5

Monday
8:15p: Cowboys at Bucs (ABC, ESPN and ManningCast)
TV: ABC, ESPN and ManningCast (Buck and Aikman)
Favorite: Cowboys (Bucs +3; Cowboys have a 60% win prob); O/U 45.5

PLAYOFF TIERS

Basically divided into Teams I Want to Watch and Team I Don't Want to Watch:

The favorites: Chiefs, Bills, Bengals, Niners, Eagles

Most likely, the Super Bowl winner will come from this group. (The NYTimes agrees with me; their cumulative Super Bowl winning probability is around 75%). These five teams have far and away been the best in the league this season. Which of these five will win? Search me. But it'll be hella entertaining if we get four of the five in the championship games and two in the Super Bowl.

Watch out for: Cowboys

You gotta respect a team with 12 wins, Dak at QB, Micah Parsons on defense and a team that, when it gets rolling, can drop 40+ on you (like they did against the Eagles, Colts, Vikings and Bears this season). But if the team that sh!t the bed against the Commanders in Week 18 shows up Monday night, they'll be out of the playoffs sooner than you can say "The Cowboys have won only three playoff games in 25 years, which is a true statement. PS: Monday's game is on grass, and the Cowboys suuuuuuck on grass.

Maximum chaos: Jags

The Jags are the only team in this year's playoffs who have never gone to the Super Bowl (and one of just four who haven't won it; the Bills, Vikings and Chargers are in the O-Fer Club). The Pride of Duval is a fun team that has a ton of upside, and it's hard not to root for them. Can't believe the Scheduling Gods paired them with the Chargers, who also have a good-haired big-armed QB and are almost as fun. DUUUUUVAL!

IMAGE(https://media.tenor.com/Q-jKq6_4DzMAAAAC/bortles-blake-bortles.gif)

Still funny and true years later.

Overachievers: Giants and Seahawks

No one gave either team a chance at the start of the season. Hell, lots of folks thought the Seahawks would be historically bad. Now here we are. Probably not for long, but who knows, right? I'd be fine with the Giants winning (because the Vikings are frauds; keep reading) but not the Seahawks because I'd like Jimmy G to get a ring before he gets traded to Carolina.

Inscrutable: Vikings

The Vikings won 13 games yet managed to score 3 fewer points than they gave up. Worse, according to Football Outsiders, the Vikings finished the season 27th in DVOA (just ahead of the BEARDEDARNOLDS, of all teams). In weighted DVOA, which gives more weight to games later in the season to give you a sense of how a team is playing now, the Vikings are 28th, right between the Titans (who finished the season with Malik Willis and Josh Dobbs as their QBs) and the Cardinals (who willingly traded for Robby/ie Anderson, who caught 7 passes for 76 yards as a Cardinal). The Vikings also have the ninth lowest DVOA of any playoff team ever. They're historically bad, and I have no idea how they won 13 games when they played the Bears only twice.

Justin Jefferson is kinda good, tho. I hope he has a good game.

Underachievers: Chargers

I really really wanted the Chargers to be good this season. But they got hurt early (and a lot), and they never really seemed to jell. Also their offense is weird. They should be a lot better than 18th in DVOA. They might beat the Jags. Or they might sleep late and miss the game. Anything could happen!

Unwatchables: Ravens and Dolphins

Miami without Tua and Baltimore without Lamar are shells of themselves and honestly not worth watching. I plan on finding something else to do while they're playing Sunday.

Please go away: Bucaneers Bucs or Buccaneers or however you spell "please go away"

Tom Brady's best offensive performance of the season was Week 17 against the Panthers. Bad news for the Bucs: The Cowboys have signed neither Keith Taylor nor CJ Henderson, who are both still hospitalized for the third-degree burns they suffered in that game. (That's why 35-year-old former barista Josh Norman started in Week 18 despite not being anywhere close to game shape.) I have nothing against the Bucs or Brady, but they are no fun to watch except for maybe the last two minutes of the game. That said, I hope they beat the Cowboys.

DRAFT ORDER

For those of us whose teams will be sitting on the couch beside us this weekend:

Top 10: Bears, Texans, Cardinals, Colts, Seahawks (via the Broncos), Lions (via the Rams), Raiders, Falcons, Panthers and Eagles (via the Saints).

Next 8: Titans, Texans again (via the Br*wns), Jets, Patriots, Packers, Commanders, Steelers and Lions again.

19 to 32: Will be determined by playoff results.

Draft is April 27-29. Get it on your calendar!

FIRED!

Lastly, a look at the NFL coaches who have been sh!tcanned during or after the 2022 season:

Kliff Kingsbury, Cardinals (28-37-1 in four seasons; one playoff loss):

IMAGE(https://media.giphy.com/media/bPz7Q9beqBevPzyKSc/giphy.gif)

Lovie Smith, Texans (3-13-1 in one season; 92-100-1 all time; 3-3 in the playoffs):

IMAGE(https://media.giphy.com/media/LIFp7weFOXCoTIjuJY/giphy.gif)

Nathanael Hackett, Broncos (4-11 in one partial disastrous season):

IMAGE(https://media.giphy.com/media/4qLheaOoXWFDhXaLok/giphy.gif)

Frank Reich, Colts (3-5-1 this season; 40-33-1 in five season with Indy; 1-2 playoff record):

IMAGE(https://media.giphy.com/media/vRHI9H7DTYT3bH7gA1/giphy.gif)

M--- R----, Panthers (fired after winning just 11 games over what felt like 11 seasons; 0-0 in the playoffs because this smock-wearing doofus couldn't find the postseason with a GPS):

IMAGE(https://media.giphy.com/media/1hMhlrWWfXU77iYnBB/giphy.gif)

Strap in for the playoffs, y'all. It'll be wild.

Niners still trucking despite losing 2 QBs to injury. Still remarkable. Go defense, bring it home

That is one craptastic slate of games. Is Jags v Chargers the only interesting one?

Please go away: Bucaneers

Panthers fans can't spell.

Enix wrote:

because I'd like Jimmy G to get a ring before he gets traded to Carolina.

You mean a third one?

Enix wrote:

Saturday
4:30p: Seahawks at Niners

Prediction:

IMAGE(https://media.tenor.com/D7hdVd9c9zYAAAAM/its-gon-rain-weather.gif)

Rat Boy wrote:
Enix wrote:

Saturday
4:30p: Seahawks at Niners

Prediction:

IMAGE(https://media.tenor.com/D7hdVd9c9zYAAAAM/its-gon-rain-weather.gif)

Y'all remember this game?

IMAGE(https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/J1Z1J1oPYCpdXck12WWdErVCKkA=/0x0:2026x3072/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:2026x3072):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7216211/72306960.jpg)

IMAGE(https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2BxnriKX8XNnbdUOxsAQhOhod3s=/0x0:720x1100/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:720x1100):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7216281/dtgetty.jpg)

For Christmas, I bought my wife a sideline cape. You know, those big arm-less rain jackets the players wear on the sideline that fit over their pads and helmets:

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/H6Xx3w7.jpg)

They're not easy to find to buy individually, mostly they come from suppliers that do custom logos on them and require a minimum order of at least 10.

But for years, whenever she watched a rainy football game, she'd exclaim "I want one of those!" whenever the sideline shots would show players draped in them.

And it just came in handy, because California got blasted by a storm that flooded out parts of my area. She was walking around her school in her new Niners-red sideline cape.

*Legion* wrote:
Enix wrote:

because I'd like Jimmy G to get a ring before he gets traded to Carolina.

You mean a third one?

NFL teams are handing out participation medals and calling them Super Bowl rings?! That's some Boomer nonsense right there.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:
Please go away: Bucaneers

Panthers fans can't spell.

I'm not getting paid for this gig, and, well, you get what you pay for around here.

Also: Saints and Falcons suck.

Oof recent reports show Brady had 45 million invested in FTX...

*Legion* wrote:

They're not easy to find to buy individually, mostly they come from suppliers that do custom logos on them and require a minimum order of at least 10.

That'd explain why the only place I've seen them outside of football was a Metal Gear Solid game.

I don’t see as many road wins this time around compared to recent years…maybe only Dallas…I unlike most people don’t think the Giants will beat the Vikings.

Enix wrote:
*Legion* wrote:
Enix wrote:

because I'd like Jimmy G to get a ring before he gets traded to Carolina.

You mean a third one?

NFL teams are handing out participation medals and calling them Super Bowl rings?! That's some Boomer nonsense right there.

Let me introduce you to the Indianapolis Colts.

TheGameguru wrote:

I unlike most people don’t think the Giants will beat the Vikings.

I think the Vikings are fraudulent enough to lose the game, but the Giants are fraudulent enough to blow the opportunity.

Looks like no Lamar this weekend
IMAGE(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FmT_Xl-WYAU03Nv?format=jpg&name=large)

Sean McVay has made an abrupt about-face, and informed the Rams that he will stay on and coach in 2023.

Something tells me he took one look around the media landscape and realized he missed the window he had last year. Amazon has their stable hired up and only a year into their contracts, and a bunch of the other heavy hitters and mid-tier guys signed new deals last year too.

That, and the networks probably were a lot more keen on throwing money at a brand new championship-winning coach than they are a coach coming off a 5-12 year.

Note that some of his assistant coaches already bailed, after he gave them permission to start looking elsewhere. I wonder if that was just a way of letting guys fire themselves...

With no cap room, and without a draft pick in rounds 1, 2, and 5, it's going to be awfully hard for the team to improve much in an offseason.

Sammy Watkins seems to think Lamar is dogging it because of his contract status:

"In this league, everybody is pretty much banged up, hurt, (...) I don’t want to speak for him and his situation and whatever he’s going through with the contracts. I don’t know what world he’s in. But for me, you got a chance to do something special. We all know with Lamar Jackson out there, this team is really freaking good, and special things can happen. He can will this team to a Super Bowl. I don’t think he’s thinking about it that way..."

(...)

"I think the world is ready to see Lamar back on the field, doing what he do best, and get all the stipulations and contract stuff behind him (...) I pray somebody talks to him like, ‘Man, just sign the deal.’ You know what I mean? And he get out there and hopefully, if... he’s healthy, he can just come play this Sunday. We all know that’s up to Lamar and whatever goes on. Hopefully, they get something done. The world wants to see Lamar be a Baltimore Raven for the rest of his life... 

[T]he world wants to watch Lamar Jackson. That’s a phenom talent, a talent that you rarely come by. Things that he do on the field and things that you see, to be quite honest when he’s out there, he makes everybody play better, just to have him in that huddle. I pray that somebody reach out to him or that he’s really truly getting healthy and can play, that he wake up Thursday and be like, ‘All right, forget it. I’m playing.’ I think that would change the whole trajectory of our season."

That's some sharp criticism dressed up as a praise sandwich.

*Legion* wrote:
TheGameguru wrote:

I unlike most people don’t think the Giants will beat the Vikings.

I think the Vikings are fraudulent enough to lose the game, but the Giants are fraudulent enough to blow the opportunity.

Yes, this is 100% accurate. The game should absolutely be put on Nickelodeon.

*Legion* wrote:

Sammy Watkins seems to think Lamar is dogging it because of his contract status:

"In this league, everybody is pretty much banged up, hurt, (...) I don’t want to speak for him and his situation and whatever he’s going through with the contracts. I don’t know what world he’s in. But for me, you got a chance to do something special. We all know with Lamar Jackson out there, this team is really freaking good, and special things can happen. He can will this team to a Super Bowl. I don’t think he’s thinking about it that way..."

(...)

"I think the world is ready to see Lamar back on the field, doing what he do best, and get all the stipulations and contract stuff behind him (...) I pray somebody talks to him like, ‘Man, just sign the deal.’ You know what I mean? And he get out there and hopefully, if... he’s healthy, he can just come play this Sunday. We all know that’s up to Lamar and whatever goes on. Hopefully, they get something done. The world wants to see Lamar be a Baltimore Raven for the rest of his life... 

[T]he world wants to watch Lamar Jackson. That’s a phenom talent, a talent that you rarely come by. Things that he do on the field and things that you see, to be quite honest when he’s out there, he makes everybody play better, just to have him in that huddle. I pray that somebody reach out to him or that he’s really truly getting healthy and can play, that he wake up Thursday and be like, ‘All right, forget it. I’m playing.’ I think that would change the whole trajectory of our season."

That's some sharp criticism dressed up as a praise sandwich.

Stick to your guns, Lamar! Hold those billionaires hostage and get that fully guaranteed contract! Owners can afford it.

*Legion* wrote:

Sean McVay has made an abrupt about-face, and informed the Rams that he will stay on and coach in 2023.

Something tells me he took one look around the media landscape and realized he missed the window he had last year. Amazon has their stable hired up and only a year into their contracts, and a bunch of the other heavy hitters and mid-tier guys signed new deals last year too.

Or he came to the realization that being good at TV is a lot harder than it looks. Sean Payton has been bad. Drew Brees has been abysmal. Who's to say that McVey will be any good at it?

Enix wrote:

Or he came to the realization that being good at TV is a lot harder than it looks. Sean Payton has been bad. Drew Brees has been abysmal. Who's to say that McVey will be any good at it?

Being good at it is optional. Jason Witten wasn't good and they let him be on Monday Night Football.

Networks were prepared to throw gobs of money at McVay last year. They didn't care to make him "prove it' beforehand.

But it's a game of musical chairs, and McVay waited until all the best seats were taken.

Still, if he's not going into broadcasting next year, he'll be going in a year or so from now. This is just a delay.

Prederick wrote:
*Legion* wrote:
TheGameguru wrote:

I unlike most people don’t think the Giants will beat the Vikings.

I think the Vikings are fraudulent enough to lose the game, but the Giants are fraudulent enough to blow the opportunity.

Yes, this is 100% accurate. The game should absolutely be put on Nickelodeon.

Patrick: "No, I did not like that!"

Rat Boy wrote:

Patrick: "No, I did not like that!"

IMAGE(https://media.giphy.com/media/37Ez5CZ8P0jSM/giphy.gif)

Enix wrote:

Who's to say that McVey will be any good at it?

Based on his soup commercials, he won't be.

iaintgotnopants wrote:
Enix wrote:

Who's to say that McVey will be any good at it?

Based on his soup commercials, he won't be.

I can't stand those either but his Gruden Jr persona is going to be a hit with the traditional NFL television viewer. Dude is going to be just gnashing teeth and intensity about the importance of football. INTENSE!

He's going to be Millennial Cowher who is horrible on the CBS show but he's still there and seems to be super popular.

Good grief is it 430 yet?

Purdy with another "should have been intercepted" throw but I'll take 3 points thanks

This game is going to be ugaly. SF by at least 30.

f*ck, I can hear that Burger King commercial even with the sound off.

Bless that fan for getting a "Big c*ck Brock" reference on air.

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