NFL 2022: The Week 16 thread

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There are many ways to lose an NFL game. There's the time-honored tradition of giving up a last-second field goal. And then there's whatever the hell happened at the end of the Patriots-Raiders game. (And guess who was miked up for the game? Yep, Chandler Jones.)

Lots of teams lost games in Week 15 in all sorts of dumb and interesting ways. To figure out whose loss was worse, I've put them all on a 10-point scale that ranges from 0 (eh, it happens) to 10 (extreme embarrassment). Tabulations start at 0, and mitigating factors are added (or subtracted) to come up with a score. Got it, math nerdz? OK, let's do this:

Bills 32, Dolphins 29
What happened: Bills won on a walk-off field goal.
Bills are good: -1
But the Fins were up 8! +3
It was snowing on the warm-weather Dolphins: -1
Dolphins total: 1/10 (eh, we'll get 'em next week)

Chiefs 30, Texans 24
What happened: On the play after the Chiefs recover a fumble, Jerick McKinnon runs for a 26-yard TD, and the Chiefs walk off the field with the AFC West title.
Game was close the whole way: -1
Chiefs are probably going to win the Super Bowl: -3
Texans' score: -4/10 (nothing to be ashamed of!)

Lions 20, Jets 17
What happened: Lions scored the go-ahead TD with less than 2 minutes to go. The Jets tried a 58-yard FG with 1 second left, but it went wide left
The Jets lost to the Lions! +3
At home! +2
Yeah, but the Lions are rolling this season, finally: -6
You know that Jared Goff is their QB, right? +2
You know Goff hasn't thrown an interception since Week 9? -4
Jets didn't cover the TE on Goff's game-winning pass: +2
Or tackle him: +2
Jets had to start Zach Wilson: +5
It counts as a moral victory because the Jets had to start Zach Wilson: -3
Jets total: 3/10 (mildly embarrassing)

Chargers 17, Titans 14
What happened: Chargers won on a FG with less than 1 minute left
Titans total: 0. No one cares about either of these suboptimal teams. Yeah, that was a great throw by Justin Herbert there at the end. But Herbert and the Chargers should be scoring 40 points a game, especially in those cool blue unis of theirs. The Chargers scored only 17 points! The Chargers are the ones who should be embarrassed.

Jaguars 40, Cowboys 34 (OT)
What happened: Jags won on a pick-six by Jags safety Rayshawn Jenkins. (I watched it live and it was pretty awesome.)
Pass was tipped: -1
It was a great play: -2
Cowboys lost to the Jags, ouch: +5
Jags are good: -3
Cowboys were up 17 at one point: +4
But they lost to the Jags! +3
Cowboys total: 6/10 (embarrassing!)

Vikings 39, Colts 36 (OT)
What happened: Colts led 33-0 at half before the Vikings mounted the biggest comeback in NFC history.
Historic achievement unlocked: +10
The Vikings are good: -4
But Kirk Cousins is their QB: +3
The guy who led the previous biggest comeback was the HC just fired by the Colts: +2
Matt Ryan has now QB'd two of the worst choke jobs in NFL history: +5
Colts total: 16/10 (brutal humilation)

Raiders 30, Patriots 24
What happened: I've watched the highlights 20+ times, and I'm still not sure what happened. It sure was funny!
Patriots came from 14 down at half: -3
Raiders tied it with ~30 seconds left: +1
Raiders WR was actually out of bounds: -5
Raiders HC is a former Patriots assistant: +4
Patriots WR Jakobi Meyers played QB in high school: +1
There's a Stanford band reference in the video clip: +2
Game-winning INT/TD was scored by former Patriots player: +4
Patriots QB Mac Jones didn't try too hard to tackle Chandler Jones: +5
Looks like he was trying to draw a charge: +10
Mac Jones was stiff-armed into the earth's core: +6
IMAGE(https://media.giphy.com/media/OdeTjjJi9dLv7q0QwL/giphy.gif)
This is the funniest football thing I think I've ever seen: +100
The play has a nickname: "Hail Moron" +100,000
Patriots total: 1,000,000/10 (eternal humiliation)

By rule, all future Patriots highlight videos should be, ah, enhanced.

STAT OF THE WEEK #1

To wrap up the bonker-ness of Week 15:

13 of 16 games were decided by one score, and all but one game (the Monday night snoozer) were decided by 11 points or fewer. Both of those marks tie NFL records.

STAT OF THE WEEK #2

Only three NFL games have ended on a game-winning TD via a fumble return, and all three have involved the Raiders and/or the Patriots.

The most recent: Patriots-Raiders in Week 15.

The second one: The famed Holy Roller game when Raiders QB Ken Stabler fumbled (air quotes) the ball forward and TE Dave Casper recovered it in the end zone. That's why there's an NFL rule that says only the offensive player who fumbled the ball can advance it on fourth down and after the two-minute warning.

The first one: In Week 2 of the 1960 AFL season, DB Chuck Shonta took a recovered fumble to the house to give the Boston Patriots their first-ever franchise victory over the New York Titans (now Jets). Also on this day Tom Brady was born.

WEEK 16 SCHEDULE

Buckle up for a ton of holiday football. Game listings include 538's overall watchability rating; anything over about 50 is probably worth watching. Coverage maps are here.

THURSDAY
Jaguars-Jets (Prime) (Watchability factor of 58)

SATURDAY (not Sunday)

Early
Bengals-Patriots (84)
Seahawks-Chiefs (72)
Lions-Panthers (67)
Bills-Bears (41)
Giants-Vikings (37)
Saints-Br*wns (22)
Falcons-Ravens (20)
Texans-Titans (6)

Late
Commanders-Niners (58)
Eagles-Cowboys (53) (national GOTW, of course)

Night
Raiders-Steelers (23, oof)

SUNDAY
1p (Fox): Packers-Dolphins (54)
430p (CBS, Nick): Broncos-Rams (2!!!)
820p (NBC): Bucs-Cardinals (10)
Christmas Story 2, which I play to watch instead of this garbage (100+)

MONDAY
Chargers-Colts (40) (ESPN; no ManningCast)

POWER RANKINGS

Aww, screw it. We know who's good (Eagles, Bills, Chiefs) and all the teams that stink (Texans, Bears, the NFC South). No need to drag this out.

IF THE SEASON ENDED TODAY ...

Via CBSsports.com, here are your AFC seeds:

1. Bills (clinched playoff berth)
2. Chiefs (clinched AFC West)
3. Bengals
4. Titans
5. Ravens
6. Chargers
7. Dolphins
Next up: Patriots (7-7), Jets (also 7-7), Jags (6-8), Raiders (6-8), Br*wns (6-8), Steelers (6-8)

NFC seeds:

1. Eagles (clinched playoff berth)
2. Vikings (clinched NFC North)
3. Niners (clinched NFC West)
4. Bucs
5. Cowboys (clinched playoff berth)
6. Giants (8-5-1)
7. Commandos (7-6-1)
Next: Seahawks and Lions (both are 7-7)

Eliminated: Rams and Cardinals are the newest members of Club Elimination. They join the Texans, Bears and Broncos at the two-top by the bathroom.

Here are your Week 16 playoff scenarios. Long story short, Bills and Eagles clinch their divisions if they win and the Bengals make the playoffs with a win. Ravens, Chargers and Giants could make it into the playoffs this week, but it requires some 12-dimensional chess. We'll see!

I don't want to say the Bucs are collapsing, but when I say "I'm not sure they're going to beat the Trace McSorley-led Cardinals", I'm not kidding.

Eagles-Cowboys (53) (national GOTW, of course)

But I don't wanna watch the Cowboys!

IMAGE(https://meetedgar.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Seinfeld-Pirate.gif)

Well Jags, you're now playing watchable, meaningful games in late December and probably into January.

What are you gonna do now?

IMAGE(https://media.tenor.com/eQJiAu-taPcAAAAC/spongebob-plankton.gif)

Ryan Tannehill is "very likely" out for the season.

That means the Titans are going to have to rely on Malik Willis to keep them ahead of the Jaguars.

Willis started 2 games earlier this season, and completed a grand total of 11 passes across those games. Across the 5 games in which he's thrown passes, he's completed 44% and earned a 47.8 passer rating.

IMAGE(https://media.giphy.com/media/rcwsA44rhr53nG3gaf/giphy.gif)

538's playoff odds have actually elevated the Jaguars above the Titans, with a 54% chance of taking the South even though they're still a game back.

IMAGE(https://media.giphy.com/media/T20OW7iLk7wOkIb21q/giphy.gif)

How much money could you have gotten at the beginning of the season by picking these 3 as the NFC pro bowl QBs? Jalen Hurts, Geno Smith, Kirk Cousins...

ukickmydog wrote:

How much money could you have gotten at the beginning of the season by picking these 3 as the NFC pro bowl QBs? Jalen Hurts, Geno Smith, Kirk Cousins...

ESPN, meanwhile, lists Jared Goff of all people as a Pro Bowl snub.

Speaking of, here is the Pro Bowl roster by position and by team.

Glad to see Brian Burns make the list. Surprised that CMC didn't. Despite all of his Niners highlights, I suspect he wasn't able to wash out the taint of the Former Panthers HC Era. That sh!t destroys all that it touches.

YouTube will have Sunday Ticket moving forward. Sounds like there could be a stand alone package for it so you don't have to buy YouTube TV to get the games. I don't see a world where they won't still blackout you from watching games in your area, which significantly reduces the value of this product.

Also, here's Roger talking about his customers.

WSJ wrote:

The deal with YouTube and the league’s agreement with Amazon’s Prime Video for Thursday night games are part of a strategy to attract younger fans, Mr. Goodell said. “It is a site where a lot of `Gen Z’ goes to get content,” he said, adding the NFL wants to “fish where the fish are.

"Their quarterback room has all the vitality of a hospice."

That's from this week's Jamboroo. Guess which team it describes? (Hint: It's not the Panthers, though it would be accurate.)

Rat Boy wrote:

I am legit going to think of this scene every time I see Rog from here on out. Specifically, "This is where my tongue lives."

So thanks for that Rat Boy.

Enix wrote:

Surprised that CMC didn't. Despite all of his Niners highlights, I suspect he wasn't able to wash out the taint of the Former Panthers HC Era. That sh!t destroys all that it touches.

Miles Sanders is having a great year, but he's got 1182 yards from scrimmage and CMC has 1550. Miles is getting 5.1 yards per touch and CMC is getting 5.7. And he was getting 5.7 yards per touch on the sinking Panthers ship. His numbers basically haven't changed from Carolina to SF, except for a little bump in his catch rate (most likely because more passes are actually on target and catchable).

Miles gets more work on the ground but is a complete non-factor in the pass game. Should be an alternate but not in ahead of CMC. CMC's 1550 yards from scrimmage beat out all 3 of the NFC's backs. Absurd for him to miss the list.

I gotta go do family Christmas stuff in an hour. I need the Jags to get to a big early lead and sit on it all game.

The Jets currently have 1 point/-1 yards of total offense.

A Tecmo Bowl callback on the outro there? Of course! All those famous JAX-NYJ Tecmo Bowl memories.

Looks like the Jaguars switched to their alternate uniforms halfway through the game. IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/VjnAmM0.png)

iaintgotnopants wrote:

The Jets currently have 1 point/-1 yards of total offense.

You just reminded me there was a game on now. But also that there are more entertaining things on Netflix ect...

sometimes I manage to forget for a day or two that the Jets picked Zach Wilson instead of Justin Fields but this tweet just reminded me again

Jets legit just playing Streveler at QB now.

Zach Wilson is so done yet again.

Yeah, I just feel bad for him now.

What is happening jaguars?

There are a few Qb’s that would have had that hit penalized. Apparently Trevy Trev is not one of them.

TheGameguru wrote:

There are a few Qb’s that would have had that hit penalized. Apparently Trevy Trev is not one of them.

Ha, was thinking the same thing. Isn't landing on top of the QB a penalty now? Sure was last Thursday when Bosa landed on Geno.

Jaguars now have a 68% chance of making the playoffs per 538's model.

Two weeks ago it was 14%.

The last time the Jaguars and 49ers made the playoffs in the same year, their QBs were Mark Brunell and Steve Young (1998).

What does Saleh do if Mike White can't play next week?

Just think . . . flip a few games two years ago, and Trevor is probably on the Jets, and the Jags have BlaineBlakeZach GabbertBortlesWilson instead.

Pink Stripes wrote:

What does Saleh do if Mike White can't play next week?

Flacco with some Streveler packages, or just Streveler I guess.

Man did Saleh look depressed in that press conference. Might be some late night drunk texting to Jimmy G happening in a few hours.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Just think . . . flip a few games two years ago, and Trevor is probably on the Jets, and the Jags have BlaineBlakeZach GabbertBortlesWilson instead.

The Jags did not have a high grade on Wilson. He (likely) would not have gone #2 to them.

Ever since someone said Trevor Lawrence looks like a Na'vi, I can't unsee it.

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/shl0oOy.jpg)

I'm pretty sure Chris Streveler is officially the best former Gopher QB* to play in the NFL and he's not even listed as coming out of Minnesota because dumbf*ck Jerry Kill couldn't figure out that he was better the Mitch goddamn Leidner resulting in him transferring to South Dakota. That's....not great.

*MarQueise Gray had a better NFL career but it was as a TE. Tony Dungy is, by far, the most well known but he was a DB in the NFL and his playing career was not good.

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