NFL 2022: The Week 11 thread

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Today's word: stolen.

Just like Justin Jefferson stole the ball out with one hand out of Cam Lewis' grasp. (Draw Play Dave has some thoughts on that catch, by the way.)

I mean, just look at this:

IMAGE(https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2022-11/9f5b15d0-639f-11ed-bbff-a40751e082ed)

Just like the Vikings stole the game from the Bills. Go watch the highlights if you haven't seen 'em.

IMAGE(https://media.giphy.com/media/7M3OWLMZdSbFczAcY4/giphy.gif)

And then there's this episode of grand larceny from the Week 10 thread:

*Legion* wrote:

Trevor Lawrence is officially the next Tom Brady.

By that, I mean he's the other NFL quarterback named as a defendant in a class-action lawsuit against the failed crypto ponzi-scheme exchange FTX.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Mark Brunell: Stole mortgages.

Trevor Lawrence: Stole Crypto.

Jimmy G: Stole hearts.

*Legion* wrote:

Blaine Gabbert and Blake Bortles: Stole 8 years of my life.

Colin Kaepernick: Had his career stolen.

I'd also point out that the Niners stole CMC from the Panthers, but in all fairness the Panthers left the front door unlocked.

STATS OF THE WEEK

First: Jimmy G is 10-2 in games where he has thrown -0- TD passes.

Second: No teams in either the AFC East or NFC East has a losing record.

Third: The corpse of Matt Ryan had a career-long 39-yard run against the Raiders. That's a fireable offense!

Four: New Colts HC Jeff Saturday has as many wins as the former Panthers HC whose name rhymes with Fat Drool.

IMAGE(https://media.giphy.com/media/42l4xDPahUphmr7Ynt/giphy.gif)

DIE EAGLES DIE

I can't believe y'all got your first L to a team QB'd by this doofus, one of several* ex-Panthers QBs still kicking around the league:

IMAGE(https://media.giphy.com/media/jKhvQVahWFujkWpMKv/giphy.gif)

That's OK. The 0 had to go sometime. Better now than in the playoffs.

* Four, not counting Cam.

POWER RANKINGS

Via The Ringer this week:

Top 5: Eagles (1st last week), Chiefs (3rd), Bills (2nd), Vikings (5th) and Dolphins (7th).

Biggest movers: Commanders +6 to 24th; Broncos, Saints and Raiders -4 to 20th, 29th and 31st, respectively.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs are your new Super Bowl favorite (22%), according to 538. Bills (12%), Vikings (11%) and Eagles (11%) are your only other double-digit percentage teams.

IF THE SEASON ENDED TODAY ...

(via NFL.com)

From the AFC (seeds 1-7): Chiefs, Dolphins, Titans, Ravens, Jets, Bills, Patriots

From the NFC: Eagles, Vikings, Seahawks, Bucs, Giants, Cowboys, Niners

Eliminated: None yet!

Draft order: Texans, Raiders, Panthers, Eagles (via Saints*), Jags (more)

* I had to look this up, but the Eagles and Saints swapped a bunch of picks before the 2022 draft. The Saints ended up with WR Chris Olave and OT Trevor Penning (who's hurt). The Eagles, meanwhile, ended up with WR AJ Brown and what could be a really, really good pick in 2023. Everyone wins!

WEEK 11 SCHEDULE

A pretty good week, especially because I get to watch Lamar Jackson during the early slot Sunday:

Thursday: Titans-Packers (Prime)

Sunday early: Bears-Falcons, Panthers-Ravens, Browns-Bills, Commanders-Texans, Eagles-Colts, *Jets-Patriots*, Rams-Saints, Lions-Giants

Sunday late: Raiders-Broncos, **Cowboys-Vikings** (national GOTW), Bengals-Steelers

Sunday night: *Chargers-Chiefs* (NBC)

Monday: Niners-Cardinals in Mexico City (ESPN; no ManningCast)

Byes: Jags, Dolphins, Seahawks, Bucs

Coverage maps are right here.

Enix wrote:

* I had to look this up, but the Eagles and Saints swapped a bunch of picks before the 2022 draft. The Saints ended up with WR Chris Olave and OT Trevor Penning (who's hurt). The Eagles, meanwhile, ended up with WR AJ Brown and what could be a really, really good pick in 2023. Everyone wins!

The Saints have a gutted roster, and the Andy Dalton-Jameis Winston divide is basically Sophie's Choice, if Sophie had to choose between a pile of crap and a pile of crap that throws a lot of interceptions. They've lost major pieces on defense, have cap issues, and don't have anything appealing for free agents, so, of course, an OT from the Best School Ever (go Panthers) who was really only known for punching his teammates before his injury, and a WR who, considering all the talent at the position right now, might be top 20 in the league at best winding up being their draft haul for last year and this coming year means everyone who hates the Saints wins, so, really, pretty much everyone.

Per Sportrac, the Saints are $63 million over the cap next year. If I'm understanding the table correctly, their contracts are so bad, their are 14 players who, if cut, would have eight-figure dead cap hits. And they traded away a first round draft pick, the most reliable way to improve your team in a cap-friendly way.

Edit: Had the link to the wrong year, and 15 players $10 million+. Michael Thomas, Cam Jordan, and Lattimore are going to eat up a solid 35% of the cap alone.

Can the ravens finally have a comfortable home win?

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

the Andy Dalton-Jameis Winston divide is basically Sophie's Choice, if Sophie had to choose between a pile of crap and a pile of crap that throws a lot of interceptions

There is a third choice.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Per Sportrac, the Saints are $63 million over the cap next year. If I'm understanding the table correctly, their contracts are so bad, their are 14 players who, if cut, would have eight-figure dead cap hits. And they traded away a first round draft pick, the most reliable way to improve your team in a cap-friendly way.

I like the OverTheCap view (click the 2023 tab) because it includes a guaranteed salary column, and a cap savings column. The Saints have given out guaranteed salary like candy, which means there's a lot of deals that they can't effectively get out of.

Does a rebuilding team need to spend $9m on a 31-year-old (next season) Tyrann Mathieu? No, that's probably a spot where they should get younger. But with $7m guaranteed salary, there's not much point in cutting him.

You'll notice in the cap savings column, there's not a lot of obvious moves to free up significant space. Basically they're gonna be restructuring deals, pushing money out further, ensuring future seasons are cap wrecked. Which of course is what past Saints teams did to get the 2023 Saints in this predicament.

Paleocon wrote:

Can the ravens finally have a comfortable home win?

Do the Ravens play in the NFC South? If not, then yes.

Carolina is 3-1 against the trash fire of a division and 0-6 against everyone else, including a couple of high school teams from South Carolina.

Yay I get to watch Ravens Sunday too

Stele wrote:

Yay I get to watch Ravens Sunday too

And Baker Mayfield too. [sarcasm]That'll be a real treat. [/sarcasm]

Enix wrote:
Stele wrote:

Yay I get to watch Ravens Sunday too

And Baker Mayfield too. [sarcasm]That'll be a real treat. [/sarcasm]

Baker has beaten the Ravens three times, but he had a better cast than he does in Carolina.

*LEGION*'S "WHERE WILL OBJ GO" POWER RANKINGS:

1. Bills - One of the teams OBJ mentioned by name, and one of the 5 teams in the latest ESPN report purported to be OBJ's "current list". The WR group here is unbalanced, with Stefon Diggs getting an outsized portion of targets, while Gabe Davis is mostly a low volume home run threat, and McKenzie gets the scraps. And Dawson Knox is only 23rd among TEs in targets.

2. Cowboys - One of the teams OBJ mentioned by name, and also in the ESPN report. This is an offense where WRs can step in and post some serious numbers, even when they're guys like Cedric Wilson or Noah Brown. The talent level and targets are just as unbalanced as in Buffalo - it's the CeeDee Lamb show. One catch is that Dallas is currently sitting at 3rd in their own division, though they're in prime playoff position still at 6-3, as every NFC team with a winning record is currently already sitting in a playoff slot.

3. Chiefs - One of the 5 teams in the ESPN report. The offense has staved off the post-Tyreek collapse many predicted, but the WR group still feels iffy aside from Juju. It's a toss-up whether or not MVS's hands are going to work at any given moment. Mecole Hardman still hasn't stepped up beyond a WR3 role. Skyy Moore barely exists, and Kadarius Toney is a crapshoot. Of course, Kelce reigns as the #1 target in the passing game, so with Juju as the #2 and MVS as the #3, there's more of a target equilibrium here than the teams above.

4. Titans - An upset pick! But when it comes to teams that will definitely be in the playoffs, there's no team whose WR group OBJ would impact more than the Titans. But why would OBJ pick the Titans over teams more likely to compete for a title? For most teams, OBJ would be a rental, but the Titans could swoop in and offer OBJ a multi-year deal, and as a 30-year-old WR coming off a knee injury, he would have to listen to that kind of offer. Going the rental route has risk: OBJ could suffer an injury setback, or not play well in the small sample size of games, and have teams in free agency wondering if he's washed. Tennessee is probably the team that should have the most urgency to add someone like OBJ, question is if they're ready to make it a long-term commitment.

5. Giants - One of the teams in the ESPN report, and OBJ's old stomping grounds. The Giants are a mirage, but that won't matter if OBJ doesn't see it that way. All that matters is that they're a 7-2 team whose leading WR has only 19 catches on the year. Would OBJ's presence expose the fact that Daniel Jones's work rate is so low that he makes Jimmy Garoppolo look like Dan Marino?

6. Ravens - There's obviously a need here, as the team went and dragged Desean Jackson out of pseudo-retirement. Question is, how much work would OBJ really get? If he's going to be a rental, posting a few 3 catch games isn't going to pump his free agent stock up like he wants. Still, a division leading team with a void at WR.

7. 49ers - One of the teams in the ESPN report. On the surface, it doesn't seem like a good fit, as the Niners already have pass catchers that are being starved a bit by the team's low throwing volume. But Shanahan has been interested in OBJ since he was still a Giant, and OBJ apparently reciprocates that interest. If one of the Niners top pass catchers suffers an injury before OBJ makes his decision, move this team way up the list. Short of that, though, it seems unlikely.

8. Packers - One of the teams OBJ mentioned by name. They probably fall off of the list if they lose tonight, but if they go on a little run here and beat Tennessee and Philly, they'd suddenly surge back into the picture. The need here is obvious, more so than any team besides Tennessee. But they need to crawl back into contention.

9. Buccaneers - They'll almost certainly make the playoffs and play at home in round 1, but the vibes haven't been great here all year. Evans and Godwin have the top two spots locked down, so there's not a big void to fill. Still, Brady's throwing the ball a lot, so there's targets to siphon away from Gage and Fournette if OBJ does join up.

10. Rams - One of the teams OBJ mentioned by name. Returning to his existing team would be the easiest path, and with Cooper Kupp hitting IR, the need is huge. But at 3-6, they're on the precipice of complete irrelevance. Beating Arizona would have helped, but as it is, they're riding a 3-game losing streak since the bye, and they've lost the head-to-head tiebreaker with the team currently occupying the lowest NFC playoff spot (49ers).

Just missing the list: Bengals, Chargers

He already won a SB so I suspect the team that gives him the 3 year deal he is looking for will be the team he always wanted to play for.

I sorta hope the Cowboys give him a 3 year deal somehow. That would be ideal to have them commit to a 30 year old WR with 2 knee surgeries on the same knee (both non contact).

Can OBJ play LG? If not, he's not a priority.

Eagles trying to set the record for oldest DLine in history.

We're moving CLE-BUF because of...snow?

C'mon, man.

IMAGE(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fhy6sEqWQAABclo?format=jpg&name=900x900)

Ford Field? They would of been better off in the snow.

Also randomly I'll be at the Ravens game this weekend. Go Lamar!

jowner wrote:

Also randomly I'll be at the Ravens game this weekend. Go Lamar!

You mean the Panthers game?

(sees Carolina is at +500 and Ravens are a -13 favorite)

Oh, right, the Ravens game.

Lol the league is doing everything it can for the poor Bills. The refs alone were not enough last week.

The local and state authorities being involved makes me wonder if they just don't want people driving to the stadium so they told the team to cancel the game or move it.

I'd link an image showing that two of the star players of the game are under six feet tall and thus would be buried alive, but it was on Twitter and we know that link will be dead in a matter of hours.

Yeah boy things are happening tonight. #RIPTwitter.

Spoiler alert: Packers are going to drop in the OBJ Power Rankings.

I hate me some Al Michaels even though he's the voice of my football youth.

But he is so good as a broadcaster.

Tonight we got turkey references, an allusion to the O/U, and a Madden callback.

Dude is scary good.

The nice thing for Q. A.A. Ron about Twitter potentially dying tonight is that he won't have to see what people said about his performance in this game.

Can Twitter dying also take the Packers season with them?

I think a top 5 pick is a stretch but top 10 would be great.

10-15 pick would be Ugh, but ok just don't mess this pick up
15-20 would be you only had one job and me having a temper tantrum

jowner wrote:

Can Twitter dying also take the Packers season with them?

I think a top 5 pick is a stretch but top 10 would be great.

10-15 pick would be Ugh, but ok just don't mess this pick up
15-20 would be you only had one job and me having a temper tantrum

I think the Packers are doing that on their own.

jowner wrote:

Can Twitter dying also take the Packers season with them?

I think a top 5 pick is a stretch but top 10 would be great.

10-15 pick would be Ugh, but ok just don't mess this pick up
15-20 would be you only had one job and me having a temper tantrum

Carolina heading up to Baltimore with Baker as the starting QB:

IMAGE(https://media.giphy.com/media/15L4GgZxncHh6/giphy.gif)

What I'm saying is that Rodgers is going to have to start missing a lot more passes than he did last night if the Packers want a top 10 pick.

Oh Rodgers was missing some last night.

But I'm sure it was his WRs fault.

Eagles next which hopefully can officially eliminate them. Sooner that happens sooner logical people start inquiring why not start Love.

With the Bears Rams right after Eagles if they are even 1% alive they will continue to start Rodgers and f*ck up the tank.

Enix wrote:
jowner wrote:

Can Twitter dying also take the Packers season with them?

I think a top 5 pick is a stretch but top 10 would be great.

10-15 pick would be Ugh, but ok just don't mess this pick up
15-20 would be you only had one job and me having a temper tantrum

Carolina heading up to Baltimore with Baker as the starting QB:

IMAGE(https://media.giphy.com/media/15L4GgZxncHh6/giphy.gif)

What I'm saying is that Rodgers is going to have to start missing a lot more passes than he did last night if the Packers want a top 10 pick.

I love that that is a gif of a BT-7

jowner wrote:

Oh Rodgers was missing some last night.

But I'm sure it was his WRs fault.

Eagles next which hopefully can officially eliminate them. Sooner that happens sooner logical people start inquiring why not start Love.

With the Bears Rams right after Eagles if they are even 1% alive they will continue to start Rodgers and f*ck up the tank.

Good luck w the QB breakup. I'm not sure I ever got over the way the Panthers did Cam dirty. I'm not sure the Panthers have either.

See, the real advantage to having a team who has never offered a QB they've drafted a second contract means you never have any drama when they leave the team, because everybody knows they're not good. Eternal failure at the most important position in football does have its advantages.

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