[Discussion] 2022 Midterm Election Catch-All

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Anything related to the midterms.

I figured I'd start a thread for the midterm elections rather than have the inevitable news and discussion clog up the News thread.

And as soon as I fire up Twitter this morning I see this...

‘Putin’s chef’ admits to interfering in U.S. elections

AP wrote:

Yevgeny Prigozhin, an entrepreneur known as “Putin’s chef” because of his catering contracts with the Kremlin, on Monday admitted he had interfered in U.S. elections and said he would continue to do so — for the first time confirming the accusations he has been rejecting for years.

“We have interfered, are interfering and will continue to interfere. Carefully, precisely, surgically and in our own way,” Prigozhin said in remarks posted by his spokespeople on social media.

Prigozhin, a dozen other Russian nationals and three Russian companies were charged with operating a covert social media campaign aimed at fomenting discord and dividing American public opinion ahead of the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

They were indicted in 2018 as part of special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian election interference.

The Justice Department in 2020 moved to dismiss charges against two of the indicted firms, Concord Management and Consulting LLC and Concord Catering, saying they had concluded that a trial against a corporate defendant with no presence in the United States and no prospect of meaningful punishment even if convicted would likely expose sensitive law enforcement tools and techniques.

Prigozhin had denied involvement in election interference until now.

Let me pose a hypothetical for the midterm results.

First off, all polls over the last month or two have swung from (at least somewhat) favoring positive Democratic results to the more typical--party out of power at midterms--positive Republican results. Next, I note that for much of this time span, early/mail-in voting has been active and being used at around the same volumes as in a presidential vote year. Lastly, indications tend to show that "these days" many more Democratic voters/leaners are likely to use early voting.

Given these points, it seems like it's not unlikely that the end results will turn out noticeably less Republican favoring than the polling snapshots look today or tomorrow, possibly not even losing control of the House. (Now I could well be trying to justify a naïve hope in Michael Moore's predictions.)

So, let's posit that something similar to the above happens. Are we going to see more "polls are always biased and wrong" arguments? Or maybe polling will start trying to factor in voting that occurs over several weeks as compared to a single day?

croaker wrote:

Let me pose a hypothetical for the midterm results.

Next, I note that for much of this time span, early/mail-in voting has been active and being used at around the same volumes as in a presidential vote year. Lastly, indications tend to show that "these days" many more Democratic voters/leaners are likely to use early voting.

Given these points, it seems like it's not unlikely that the end results will turn out noticeably less Republican favoring than the polling snapshots look today or tomorrow, possibly not even losing control of the House.

So, let's posit that something similar to the above happens. Are we going to see more "polls are always biased and wrong" arguments? Or maybe polling will start trying to factor in voting that occurs over several weeks as compared to a single day?

Allow me to come to a different conclusion - nearly every Republican who loses a race because of early voting or mail-in voting will immediately begin screaming "voter fraud" and refuse to accept those results of the elections (the results they like on the same ballots, of course, will be lauded as completely legitimate).

In other words, it won't be the polls that come under fire, it will be the votes themselves.

We'll see how many states use their new "laws" to claim voter fraud and choose the result they want.

I will go vote in person tomorrow. I'm debating whether I should be carrying.

Spoiler:

The answer, of course, is "no", but I have no doubt that the local scared-of-antifa-scarecrow right-wingers will be packing heat.

Farscry wrote:

I will go vote in person tomorrow. I'm debating whether I should be carrying.

Spoiler:

The answer, of course, is "no", but I have no doubt that the local scared-of-antifa-scarecrow right-wingers will be packing heat.

Bring multiple forms of ID and knowledge of what to do if you are mysteriously purged from the voter rolls.

#notajoke

Oh, I know that's not a joke, I'm always prepared.

Ran in and voted first thing in the morning like I usually do. Was a bit busier than a typical midterm in my precinct, though still not as busy as a presidential election year. Which... in my precinct that's probably a good thing.

The obvious Q-head scanning the room doing his best impression of a fed was both absurd and a depressing reflection on the state of things. Yes buddy, there's going to be a boatload of "mules" working their dark magic in a small Iowa precinct that skews heavily towards the older end of the demographic scale.

Nice to see the anti abortion bills getting shot down in red states

As stressed out as I am about the state of the country, the world, and my life, it looks like I can at least go to bed comforted by the fact that America's Quack will not be a US Senator.

f*cking Iowa. I wonder when my wife will finally be convinced to leave the Mississippi of the Midwest.

Just gonna stand up now and admit that I had this one totally wrong. I was expecting a bloodbath, bought the BS, but it appears that Democrats managed to hold their ground. They might've even gotten Boebert up outta there (not MTG though, but small blessings.)

I think Boebert will survive but God I look forward to her tweets tomorrow if she doesn't.

Really hoping the numbers hold for Arizona's governor as well, Lake is super scary.

Tomorrow will be interesting to see how many are going "RIGGED!"

I'd set the o/u at 60%.

Also, based on some of the exit polls I've seen, Biden has to expand student loan forgiveness at this point as a thank you to everyone under 30 who voted.

Well, it isn't the nightmare I thought I was going to wake up to but damn.....this sh*t is always way closer than it should be.

Minnesota representing like a muther!!
Even if somehow Ellison loses, it's still a net win in the state.
Our school board did end up split for this election, but at this point I'll take it as more than good enough. The two worst candidates did not get elected.

Felt a breath I didn't know I was holding let out this morning.

farley3k wrote:

Felt a breath I didn't know I was holding let out this morning.

This.

How the f*ck is Warnock / Walker so close it will be a runoff? How the hell are millions of people voting for Herschel Walker when it takes all of 30 seconds of him talking to show he is unfit for office. WTF is going on in this country??

The fact that these elections are close at all and it was not a condemnation across the board of the sh*t that has gone on the last few years just makes me lose hope. I don't want to live here any more. I don't want to raise my kid here any more.

Democrat John Fetterman Wins Pennsylvania Senate Seat

Huzzah!! I really, really dislike Dr. Oz the more I know about him. I am glad he moved to another state to try this an still lost.

Finally got rid of my PoS Republican rep who's been in office for 25 years because his gerrymandered-to-hell district slightly changed in 2020 and, very sadly, got f*cking JD Vance as my new Senator.

LeapingGnome wrote:

The fact that these elections are close at all and it was not a condemnation across the board of the sh*t that has gone on the last few years just makes me lose hope. I don't want to live here any more. I don't want to raise my kid here any more.

The funny thing here is that all the news/talking heads I've seen this morning are saying that the results are a repudiation of the GOP, because everyone thought they were going to coast to victory on a "red wave". Steven Colbert pointed out that at this point it looks more like a "pink trickle". This is the worst showing by an opposition party in a midterm election year in a long time.

Which I guess just goes to show that we're all supposed to have really low expectations. I mean, I do, but then as a rule I just hate people in general anyway.

Sadly I thought Stacey Abrams and Beto were doing better than their numbers suggest.

LeapingGnome wrote:

How the f*ck is Warnock / Walker so close it will be a runoff? How the hell are millions of people voting for Herschel Walker when it takes all of 30 seconds of him talking to show he is unfit for office. WTF is going on in this country??

It's not that mystifying. Walker is a safe vote for whatever the right wants at any given moment at the Federal level while denying the awful left their anti-american anti-votes. Nobody expects him to introduce policy. I would be shocked if he ever said a single word on the Senate floor. other words his witlessness is a feature, not a bug.

Man I hate how close most of MN races were, either vote for progress or Gilead/Nazi. That said we pulled through a lot of them. Hate to see MTG still win but GA is slowly changing. It was a hard night to ignore slow results coming in.

OG_slinger wrote:

Finally got rid of my PoS Republican rep who's been in office for 25 years because his gerrymandered-to-hell district slightly changed in 2020 and, very sadly, got f*cking JD Vance as my new Senator.

Wait, I didn't know you were in Ohio.

Also, yeah, sorry about Vance. Tim Ryan was my rep for the time I lived there, and I never thought anything bad about him, but also was never really excited to vote for him, either.

Really hoping the numbers hold for Arizona's governor as well, Lake is super scary.

This.

Also f*cking JD Vance... Seriously?

I think this election is a litmus test not on whether we are a fascist country, but which states we have already lost to fascism. Ohio is certainly gone. AZ is flirting. Texas and Florida are trading blows. Can DeSantis and Abbott seal off the population before it bursts through the pipe?

LeapingGnome wrote:

How the f*ck is Warnock / Walker so close it will be a runoff? How the hell are millions of people voting for Herschel Walker when it takes all of 30 seconds of him talking to show he is unfit for office. WTF is going on in this country??

Because he is their useful idiot who will "stick it to the libs".

Looks like 2 out of the 3 Colorado counties in the 3rd district with less than 90% reporting lean democratic. Boebert actually may have a difficult road ahead to win.

Trump might be in trouble with his own party after this. I sometimes cruise the reddit conservative post to get a feel outside my bubble. There's a lot of anti Trump messages and pro Desantes talk. Him winning so hard in Florida made a lot of people switch sides. I can't imagine Trump will take that lightly.

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