[Discussion] Ukraine - Russian Invasion and Discussion

A place for aggregated discussions of a possible conflict, it’s implications and effects, news updates and personal accounts if any. If the expected conflict kicks off, I will change the title but the function will stay the same.

How will they even keep them fed?

Robear wrote:

How will they even keep them fed?

Poorly.

They are unlikely to solve their rail dependence issue anytime soon. If the Ukrainians break the loop at Melitopol, for instance, 100k Russians will create the world's worst traffic jam as they flee down the E97 through Armiansk to Crimea.

Yeah, these aren't quality troops getting the call.
I heard an interview on NPR/BBC today with a Russian who'd fled to Armenia where he has family. He held the rank of lieutenant from 10 years prior when he finished an advanced degree in a field desired by the army, but he'd never had any training, never held or fired a weapon. He knew several people who'd already received callup letters, and figured his was waiting for him in Russia. He wasn't sure what he was going to do next, given the risks.

JLS wrote:

Yeah, these aren't quality troops getting the call.
I heard an interview on NPR/BBC today with a Russian who'd fled to Armenia where he has family. He held the rank of lieutenant from 10 years prior when he finished an advanced degree in a field desired by the army, but he'd never had any training, never held or fired a weapon. He knew several people who'd already received callup letters, and figured his was waiting for him in Russia. He wasn't sure what he was going to do next, given the risks.

That's supported by this Twitter thread about the experiences of junior officers in the Russian military: training is faked. It also highlights the horrendous living conditions Russian soldiers have on bases which I'm sure isn't going to get better pushing 300,000 more soldiers through them.

Quick note from the earlier page about Russia starting poorly but then getting it together.

Sure, against Napoleon and Hitler, things turned out that way. But they didn't turn out that way against the Kaiser and they only beat back those two empires because THE dominant economic power of the day propped them up. No Lend-Lease? No Zhukov, no Stalingrad, no Great Patriotic War. Putin doesn't have any of that. 300k "soldiers" getting called up? This sounds like Michael Scott making demands that profits are up, just because.

All of us work in organizations. Do any of Putin's actions sound like actual, achievable plans that can be executed in a timely manner to sufficient quality? Or does it sound like a boss just...making decrees, irrespective of the facts everyone else knows?

"Make me a 300k army!"

Yes, boss, right away, boss. (How the f*ck does he think we're going to find, train, equip, transport and then effectively deploy this thing? I don't know how to do that. None of us do!)
"Just tell him it's getting worked. Make up some more stuff."
"Things are going according to plan, boss. Lots of volunteers. Here are the...reports...proving we've increased the ranks."

Top_Shelf wrote:

Quick note from the earlier page about Russia starting poorly but then getting it together.

Sure, against Napoleon and Hitler, things turned out that way. But they didn't turn out that way against the Kaiser and they only beat back those two empires because THE dominant economic power of the day propped them up. No Lend-Lease? No Zhukov, no Stalingrad, no Great Patriotic War. Putin doesn't have any of that. 300k "soldiers" getting called up? This sounds like Michael Scott making demands that profits are up, just because.

All of us work in organizations. Do any of Putin's actions sound like actual, achievable plans that can be executed in a timely manner to sufficient quality? Or does it sound like a boss just...making decrees, irrespective of the facts everyone else knows?

"Make me a 300k army!"

Yes, boss, right away, boss. (How the f*ck does he think we're going to find, train, equip, transport and then effectively deploy this thing? I don't know how to do that. None of us do!)
"Just tell him it's getting worked. Make up some more stuff."
"Things are going according to plan, boss. Lots of volunteers. Here are the...reports...proving we've increased the ranks."

I don't disagree with that. I think the point the guy was making was that Russians tend to find their fighting spirit and motivation when they get invaded and that invader commits horrific atrocities. I would add that they tend to perform rather poorly when Russians are asked to sacrifice for foreign adventures. I think Putin and his sock puppet milbloggers recognize this and are trying really hard to manufacture circumstances that simulate the former because what they have now is clearly the latter.

Paleocon wrote:

I think the point the guy was making was that Russians tend to find their fighting spirit and motivation when they get invaded and that invader commits horrific atrocities. I would add that they tend to perform rather poorly when Russians are asked to sacrifice for foreign adventures. I think Putin and his sock puppet milbloggers recognize this and are trying really hard to manufacture circumstances that simulate the former because what they have now is clearly the latter.

It could become the former when UKR fully liberates its country, including retaking Crimea. The battle-hardened and well-equipped Ukrainian army will justifiably want revenge for the atrocities their nation has suffered since February (and 2014 before that). Putin has been sowing the seeds of Russia's destruction for years. Their fighting spirit might be enough to save them when they have no forces left to defend themselves.

JLS wrote:
Paleocon wrote:

I think the point the guy was making was that Russians tend to find their fighting spirit and motivation when they get invaded and that invader commits horrific atrocities. I would add that they tend to perform rather poorly when Russians are asked to sacrifice for foreign adventures. I think Putin and his sock puppet milbloggers recognize this and are trying really hard to manufacture circumstances that simulate the former because what they have now is clearly the latter.

It could become the former when UKR fully liberates its country, including retaking Crimea. The battle-hardened and we'll-equipped Ukrainian army will justifiably want revenge for the atrocities their nation has suffered since February (and 2014 before that). Putin has been sowing the seeds of Russia's destruction for years. Their fighting spirit might be enough to save them when they have no forces left to defend themselves.

I think the chances of that are remote. The Ukrainian military has demonstrated remarkable discipline for a citizen military and its conduct has been laser focused on the goals of winning liberation for Ukraine and maintaining the enthusiastic political backing of the West. There will be folks baying for blood to be sure, but there is simply no way a Zelensky led Ukraine will let them cross into Russia.

They will attempt to get their justice through the international courts. Failing that, they will lobby the West to continue sanctions on Russia until cooperation with the ICC and reparations for damage is completed. They might even continue their information campaign and foment Russian discontent in places like Belgorod and Rostov on Don. But they will come far short of rolling tanks across the border if for no other reason than doing so would scuttle any chance of their joining the EU.

The Ukrainians have their eye on the prize. Their eventual goal is Europeanization.

Lots of mobilization news today.

Novaya Gazeta, an independent Russian newspaper, is reporting that Russia's mobilization goal is much, much higher than the 300,000 figure Shoigu mentioned in his speech. The number in the actual mobilization order itself was classified and Novaya Gazeta is reporting that their source within Putin's administration says the order allows for up to one million soldiers to be mobilized.

It's also becoming clear that a lot of things Shoigu said aren't turning out to be true. He said that the first to be mobilized will be men with previous military experience and military specialties. However, there are already videos popping up of Russian men in their 30s who have never served before getting mobilization summons.

Shoigu also said that the mobilization will be spread across the different Russian republics. That doesn't seem to be the case, though, with the central and eastern republics of Yakutia, Saha, Buryatia, Dagestan, and Chechnya all "being mobilized in disproportionately large numbers."

There's video showing male students at Ulan-Ude University in the capital city of Buryatia being taken away by officials while they were in class. There's also video from a local news outlet showing that schools have been turned into collection points where young men are being gathered from buses that are coming in from all areas of the republic.

In Chechnya large numbers of young men were scooped up, reportedly being told to show up "or else."

In Magadan, in Russia's far east, there's video of civilian men being loaded into an An-12 military transport plane.

While I'm not surprised that it seems Russia has decided to its imperialistic self and send a lot of non-ethnic Russians from poor and remote republics off to die in Ukraine I am a bit surprised at the speed and scale of the mobilization. I also have some serious doubts about the Russian military's ability to absorb and process so many men so quickly.

OG_slinger wrote:

Lots of mobilization news today.

Novaya Gazeta, an independent Russian newspaper, is reporting that Russia's mobilization goal is much, much higher than the 300,000 figure Shoigu mentioned in his speech. The number in the actual mobilization order itself was classified and Novaya Gazeta is reporting that their source within Putin's administration says the order allows for up to one million soldiers to be mobilized.

It's also becoming clear that a lot of things Shoigu said aren't turning out to be true. He said that the first to be mobilized will be men with previous military experience and military specialties. However, there are already videos popping up of Russian men in their 30s who have never served before getting mobilization summons.

Shoigu also said that the mobilization will be spread across the different Russian republics. That doesn't seem to be the case, though, with the central and eastern republics of Yakutia, Saha, Buryatia, Dagestan, and Chechnya all "being mobilized in disproportionately large numbers."

There's video showing male students at Ulan-Ude University in the capital city of Buryatia being taken away by officials while they were in class. There's also video from a local news outlet showing that schools have been turned into collection points where young men are being gathered from buses that are coming in from all areas of the republic.

In Chechnya large numbers of young men were scooped up, reportedly being told to show up "or else."

In Magadan, in Russia's far east, there's video of civilian men being loaded into an An-12 military transport plane.

While I'm not surprised that it seems Russia has decided to its imperialistic self and send a lot of non-ethnic Russians from poor and remote republics off to die in Ukraine I am a bit surprised at the speed and scale of the mobilization. I also have some serious doubts about the Russian military's ability to absorb and process so many men so quickly.

I wrote:

The ridiculous myth of Russia being an "Eurasian civilization" is belied by ethnic European Russian treatment of their Asian subjects. This is a colonial empire masquerading as a "civilization" and has been since at least Catherine the Great and probably a great deal before her. The natural state of this landmass and the peoples who inhabit it in a post-colonial world is split up into independent countries with governments responsible for the their own unique territorial interests. Many of the ones East of the Caucasus will more naturally fall under China's orbit. Russia proper will have to decide if it wants to be Europe's North Korea or adopt open society norms and participate in the behavior of civilized nations, but the option of maintaining imperial control over a decaying empire will not be available to them for much longer.

Putin has been screaming that he would not accept a "junior partner" position to China. He will have no choice. Buryatia, Kamchatka, Yakutia and others will find little benefit in paying taxes to Moscow when all their trade is with China.

OG_slinger wrote:

While I'm not surprised that it seems Russia has decided to its imperialistic self and send a lot of non-ethnic Russians from poor and remote republics off to die in Ukraine I am a bit surprised at the speed and scale of the mobilization. I also have some serious doubts about the Russian military's ability to absorb and process so many men so quickly.

I guess the first test will be if they actually give any of these, likely very angry men, guns.

I'm kind of imagining that they are going to send these poor guys straight to the front, and present them with their very own, fresh from 70 year storage, T-62s.

Now, would be another excellent time for the US to give Ukraine their mothballed Bradley IFVs.

If Ukraine wants to counter this new mobilization, they just need to offer the new Russian recruits a better salary, food, and clothing.

This is a psyop ready to happen.

Badferret wrote:

I guess the first test will be if they actually give any of these, likely very angry men, guns.

I'm kind of imagining that they are going to send these poor guys straight to the front, and present them with their very own, fresh from 70 year storage, T-62s.

Now, would be another excellent time for the US to give Ukraine their mothballed Bradley IFVs.

They've already shipped the T-62s.

And CNN's reporting--based on US intelligence--that Putin is pulling a Hitler and is now directly ordering Russian generals in Ukraine.

I remember something like that happening in the (first?) Iraq war. forced into service Iraqis were stuck in their advanced positions waiting for "rescue" from the American soldiers whom they would surrender to.

maverickz wrote:

If Ukraine wants to counter this new mobilization, they just need to offer the new Russian recruits a better salary, food, and clothing.

This is a psyop ready to happen.

This would be a continuation of an ongoing and, reportedly, successful psyop.

In fact, the entire behavior of the Ukrainian military (with a few notable exceptions that have been apparently dealt with) has been deliberately professional with an emphasis on drawing a stark distinction between the barbarity of the Russians and the relative civility of the Ukrainians. The language they consistently use when issuing arrest warrants or taking prisoners includes "in accordance with international law" or "in accordance with the Geneva and Hague conventions".

This is not just a war of survival for Ukraine. It is an audition for inclusion into Western civilization. And it shows.

OG_slinger wrote:
Badferret wrote:

I guess the first test will be if they actually give any of these, likely very angry men, guns.

I'm kind of imagining that they are going to send these poor guys straight to the front, and present them with their very own, fresh from 70 year storage, T-62s.

Now, would be another excellent time for the US to give Ukraine their mothballed Bradley IFVs.

They've already shipped the T-62s.

About those *new* T-62s.....

Someone On Twitter wrote:

An unknowable number of these men are conscripts sent to fight and die in a conflict that has nothing to do with them, they have no stake in, and will permanently disfigure whatever they appreciate about the society they live in for an oligarch who cares nothing for them.

Given Russia's level of competence with logistics so far I'd be surprised if 3000 of them even got there.

Prederick wrote:
Someone On Twitter wrote:

An unknowable number of these men are conscripts sent to fight and die in a conflict that has nothing to do with them, they have no stake in, and will permanently disfigure whatever they appreciate about the society they live in for an oligarch who cares nothing for them.

It's tragic what he's doing to his own country.

You know, this is starting to sound more and more like 1917...

@wartranslated wrote:

Interesting opinion on mobilisation from Rus. blogger Mikhail Pozharsky.

He believes Russian gov-t broke the pact with citizens in that they wouldn't be involved in wars and could instead follow them on TV like sports (Georgia, Syria). The consequences are unpredictable now.

IMAGE(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdSm6SpXwAIzN3r?format=png&name=large)

IMAGE(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdSm6f8WIAAB3e-?format=png&name=large)

OG_slinger wrote:

I also have some serious doubts about the Russian military's ability to absorb and process so many men so quickly.

I don't think that even matters. I think the goal is purely to get more bodies in the quagmire, to muck up and slow Ukranian progress to a crawl. I don't think having these new soldiers actually be an effective fighting force is the (realistic) intent.

I think the tactic now is to just stall and stall and stall, hoping that the West gets tired of providing support. Maybe get some more stooges elected in those Western democracies who can try to undermine and halt that support from within.

*Legion* wrote:

I think the tactic now is to just stall and stall and stall, hoping that the West gets tired of providing support. Maybe get some more stooges elected in those Western democracies who can try to undermine and halt that support from within.

Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban wants EU sanctions on Russia lifted by the end of the year, a pro-government daily newspaper said Thursday.

Just wondering how closely we are on this path I wrote about on page 12.
Turkey seems to want its cut too.

swami fangblackbone wrote:

But, China also could have huge wins either way if they embolden Putin to fall on his face. You can't tell me that China would not reap benefits of a weakened/crippled Russia. If only it would just further cement China's prominence in the region, it would be huge. But think of all the projects China is pursuing, like revitalizing the golden road, that can be even more ambitious free from considerations of their Soviet neighbors.

And if Putin falls and Russia returns to more democratic government, I would be very leery of the pressure of newfound interest in relationships from China when stabilizing Russia.

Re: War as Sports TV

WTF have Russians been thinking they are "rooting" for? The Washington Generals? Their team sucks! They're getting smoked out there. Literally!

Paleocon wrote:

Vlad Vexler put it the best

Is that the Russian for "Dirk Diggler?" It is, isn't it?

Top_Shelf wrote:

Re: War as Sports TV

WTF have Russians been thinking they are "rooting" for? The Washington Generals? Their team sucks! They're getting smoked out there. Literally!

And you thought the Denver Broncos had incompetent coaching.

Seriously.

It's like Rich Kotite at coach and then the roster is made up of the biggest busts in history, like Boz and Mandarich and Ryan Leaf.

Yeah, but everyone's still afraid they might blow up the stadium.

maverickz wrote:
Prederick wrote:
Someone On Twitter wrote:

An unknowable number of these men are conscripts sent to fight and die in a conflict that has nothing to do with them, they have no stake in, and will permanently disfigure whatever they appreciate about the society they live in for an oligarch who cares nothing for them.

It's tragic what he's doing to his own country.

It's tragic what human society has done, time and again, fielding men and women into conflicts that do nothing to advance the common interests of human society as a whole.

I'm fairly certain it's a common theme in professional Western armies, for vets to come back disillusioned.

These RUS conscripts are, sadly, going to be fielded with insufficient food and supplies. Assuming UKR continues to soften up targets with precision weapons, these conscripts will steal from the Donbas residents (because what else do you do if your army can't feed you), be stuck in old military hardware fated to die not knowing what killed them for the simple reason there was a risk that old hardware was operable and aimed at UKR liberators.