[Discussion] Ukraine - Russian Invasion and Discussion

A place for aggregated discussions of a possible conflict, it’s implications and effects, news updates and personal accounts if any. If the expected conflict kicks off, I will change the title but the function will stay the same.

That rings true, Maverickz.

maverickz wrote:

No, it's World War 2. It's always World War 2. Russia is obsessed with World War 2 at all levels. Political, cultural, societal, industrial. That country had its golden age during World War 2, and that fact is a horror all of its own. The myths, and they are all largely fictional, of the glory and heroism of WW2 permeate Russia, and many exSoviet Republics.

So, serious question here: much like how there is a perspective from certain subcultures within our nation that the US Civil War never truly ended, is that essentially how portions of Russia look at the world? As if WW2 never really ended?

Farscry wrote:
maverickz wrote:

No, it's World War 2. It's always World War 2. Russia is obsessed with World War 2 at all levels. Political, cultural, societal, industrial. That country had its golden age during World War 2, and that fact is a horror all of its own. The myths, and they are all largely fictional, of the glory and heroism of WW2 permeate Russia, and many exSoviet Republics.

So, serious question here: much like how there is a perspective from certain subcultures within our nation that the US Civil War never truly ended, is that essentially how portions of Russia look at the world? As if WW2 never really ended?

Well, look, I can't speak for all Russians. I can't even speak for any Russians, I'm a mix of those other ethnic minorities that were the Others in the Soviet Union. But I have spoken to many older people on the topic and have kept up on the happenings in the area since we left in 89. And I like to think that my outsider status gives me a more objective view of the situation there.

There are basically two groups I've come across. People who saw through the facade and people who bought in. And it's that latter group that's still holding on to the glory days. I don't believe they think WW2 never ended. But they pine for and miss the glory days of the USSR during World War 2. That was before the facade of communism began to crumble. That was when the USSR was a world power and had respect. Putin is not the only person left in Russia who thinks the fall of the USSR was a very bad thing. Never mind that millions of Soviet citizens were killed.

It started in the 30's with the Army purges and the famines...

Thanks, I was genuinely curious as I have no frame of reference from the perspective of Russians and their culture. It's a pretty big gap in my historical and current-events self-education.

Farscry wrote:

Thanks, I was genuinely curious as I have no frame of reference from the perspective of Russians and their culture. It's a pretty big gap in my historical and current-events self-education.

How does one eat an elephant? One bite at a time.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vlad...

I have said it before and it bears repeating.

Putin is a mediocre 19th Century mind, trying to fight a 20th Century war, against a 21st Century world.

Sweden and Finland threw the PKK under the bus in exchange for Turkey not blocking their entry into NATO.

I don't know what practical impact that has on the PKK, but I do know that Putin's strategic defeat as the result of his Special Operation is now complete.

Nah. Still some strategic lucre on the table to give away. More tanks, generals, equipment, now even gold is going to be banned. More losing on the way!

Here we go: https://www.npr.org/2022/06/28/11084...

Looks like the Russians on Snake Island f*cked off and went home.

No. Russia announced that as a humanitarian gesture, the surviving soldiers on Snake Island fled the still-burning ruins in just two speedboats, so that negotiations on getting grain to the world would not be inhibited. Can't believe you fell for that Ukrainian propaganda. It is after all wildfire and explosion season on Snake Island.

I see Russian bots have graduated from copium to fendenial

Wildfire and explosion season!

It looks like NATO decided at the summit to change the official policy from deterrence by punishment to deterrence by denial. That sounds "better", but the reality is that it means NATO's ready commitment goes from 40k troops to over 300k and permanently stations a sizable commitment of troops in the Balkans to prevent Putin from going Ukraine style wargasm all over again. That and the impending accession of Finland and Sweden along with the likely signing of a Polish SOFA puts military tensions with Russia at as high as they have been since the Cold War. Understandable, but tragic nonetheless.

Putin, you dumb f*ck. Eat a bag of leprous dicks.

The Russian Central Bank just introduced a new 100-ruble note featuring the Soviet Soldier Memorial.

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/O85Ymol.jpg)

There's one teeny, tiny problem though: none of Russia's ATMs and cash registers will recognize the new notes.

It seems 60% of the ATMs in Russia are imported (from NCR or Diebold Nixdorf) as are 100% of the cash registers in Russia. And those companies have all left Russia meaning there's no one around to update the equipment's software to recognize the new bank note.

And speaking of sanctions, there's growing evidence that they are beginning to seriously bite. Car production in May 2022 was down 96.7% from May 2021 (only 3,700 cars were made in Russia in May). Truck production was down 39.3% Internal combustion engine production was down 57%.

Very scarily for a county that pretty much runs on trains (and whose fleet of stolen Western planes are going to be increasingly grounded because of maintenance issues), production of passenger cars dropped 59.8% and production of freight cars dropped 51.8%. Worse, Russia doesn't domestically manufacture any bearing units that trains need and does not have the technological capability to do so, so not only will new production continue to decline, but they'll have increasing problems keeping their existing stock functioning.

Looks like Homelander.

I was thinking Superman from Red Son.IMAGE(https://www.commonsensemedia.org/sites/default/files/styles/social_share_image/public/screenshots/csm-movie/supermanredson-screenshot-1.jpg)

Russia is now bombing their humanitarian gesture to destroy all the equipment they were forced to leave.

Several of the bombs they dropped not only missed the equipment they were trying to destroy, but also missed the entire island. That gives an interesting peak into the quality (or lack thereof) of Russian pilots. And the fact they were using dumb bombs shows they have a pretty severe shortage of PGMs.

Now would be a pretty perfect time to absolutely FLOOD the Russian economy with high quality fake 100 ruble notes.

Paleocon wrote:

Now would be a pretty perfect time to absolutely FLOOD the Russian economy with high quality fake 100 ruble notes.

That's not how it worked. It'll be like it was during the cold war. Western cigarettes, movies, and jeans. No one wants rubles, they're worthless.

maverickz wrote:
Paleocon wrote:

Now would be a pretty perfect time to absolutely FLOOD the Russian economy with high quality fake 100 ruble notes.

That's not how it worked. It'll be like it was during the cold war. Western cigarettes, movies, and jeans. No one wants rubles, they're worthless.

Something tells me that the average Russian doesn't have his life savings in Newport 100's.

Paleocon wrote:
maverickz wrote:
Paleocon wrote:

Now would be a pretty perfect time to absolutely FLOOD the Russian economy with high quality fake 100 ruble notes.

That's not how it worked. It'll be like it was during the cold war. Western cigarettes, movies, and jeans. No one wants rubles, they're worthless.

Something tells me that the average Russian doesn't have his life savings in Newport 100's.

No, but they always found a way to get stuff.

Official Ukrainian and Russian sources are being quite mum about the Kherson front, but several osint sources are growing more confident that the Ukrainians are steadily gaining ground toward the city.

From ISW's July 1st assessment:

ISW wrote:

The Kremlin is likely setting conditions for crypto-mobilization of the Russian economy in preparation for a protracted war in Ukraine. The Kremlin proposed an amendment to federal laws on Russian Armed Forces supply matters to the Russian State Duma on June 30, that would introduce “special measures in the economic sphere” obliging Russian businesses (regardless of ownership) to supply Russian special military and counterterrorist operations. The amendment would prohibit Russian businesses from refusing to accept state orders for special military operations and allow the Kremlin to change employee contracts and work conditions, such as forcing workers to work during the night or federal holidays. The Kremlin noted in the amendment’s description that the ongoing special military operation in Ukraine exposed supply shortages, specifically materials needed to repair military equipment, and stated that Russian officials need to “concentrate their efforts in certain sectors of the economy." Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely mobilizing the Russian economy and industry to sustain the ongoing war effort, but has not yet taken parallel measures to mobilize Russian manpower on a large scale.

The manpower issue for Russia remains problematic with reports that mercenaries from the Wagner Group now constitute Russia's "main assault force at the front."

Russians who volunteer for a short-term contract (that pays five times the local salary) tell of being accepted without any medical examination, whisked away to a staging area, handed a uniform and kit from the 1960s, and sent off to fight without any training or refresher courses and with some not even given enough time to hold the weapon they were expected to use.

BBC wrote:

According to Dmitry, at the assembly point in Rostov, where he ended up, most of the volunteers were people over the age of 45. Not all of them were healthy.

“Of course, I understand these pensioners. They came there on patriotism. But many have a belly, half in glasses [with diopters] at minus five or more. With me, one peasant fell on the line with a stroke. In general, I looked at it all and realized that this is really a one-way ticket.”

In other signs Russia is under a manpower squeeze intercepted phone calls note that the "demobilization" fee (bribe) for LPR soldiers has jumped from $2,000 to $20,000 and there are some troubling posts on social media from newly captured Ukrainian territory where military-aged men are being forced to "volunteer" and having their Ukrainian ID and passports destroyed.

Of course the war hasn't gotten in the way of Russian officers grifting their soldiers. In fact, it's provided them with a new source of income: taking money to "rotate" soldiers away from Ukraine to safer posts and then ghosting their families while leaving the soldier in theater.

With me, one peasant fell on the line with a stroke.

Am I a bad person for laughing at this?

OG_slinger wrote:

.lOf course the war hasn't gotten in the way of Russian officers grifting their soldiers. In fact, it's provided them with a new source of income: taking money to "rotate" soldiers away from Ukraine to safer posts and then ghosting their families while leaving the soldier in theater.

Dedovshchina is alive and well!

Quotes from a just returned Ukrainian medic that had been captured when Mariupol fell.

Won't be surprised to here Andersonville like stories of POWs after the war.

IMAGE(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FWpmVM3WYAY-hvC?format=jpg&name=small)

Badferret wrote:

Quotes from a just returned Ukrainian medic that had been captured when Mariupol fell.

Won't be surprised to here Andersonville like stories of POWs after the war.

That's tough to read.

Looks like the Putinites forgot to take or destroy some of their stuff

Pansir radar