[Q&A] Political Predictions Repository

Want to make your mark and be GWJ famous?

This is a place to deposit political predictions you'd like to make in public, so that they can be easily found and referenced in the future. Thus, it is not a discussion thread; discussions of predictions should take place in other threads as conversations proceed. Explicit clarification questions and answers are fine, but "Why do you think that?" expositions should occur elsewhere so as not to clutter the repository. Predictions should be narrowly defined; testable with publicly available information at all times; have an explicit date range; and refer to events, people and places explicitly so as to leave no doubt of resolution; and they should be numbered sequentially so that they are easier to find at later dates. Edits must be clearly marked and original text preserved through the use of strike-throughs if the prediction is modified. Please avoid the use of generalities - "The President will change his mind on this topic" is less useful than "The President will change his policy from yes to no on this topic", because the latter prevents a tiny change from being claimed as success. Failed predictions should be marked in bold at the top of the post via an edit, leaving the rest intact.

I’m missing something here. How is this the fault of Bernie Bros?

gewy wrote:

I’m missing something here. How is this the fault of Bernie Bros?

Because it always is.

Spoiler:

I was being sarcastic

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/1L2Xnrj_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium)

America appears in a crisis of determining how it will govern an empire in decline. Whether it wants to make a soft transition as a leader in community of nations or if it wants a hard landing grasping at the last vestiges. It looks like we are choosing the latter.

1943 was the year that officially made the US a global empire. Four years of Lend Lease pretty much meant the USD replaced the GBP as the global currency. I believe we will live to see it replaced again.

Maybe it's time to start an actual war with East Asia.

Also, this isn't as much of a political prediction, but most reports I've seen say Kyle Rittenhouse is gonna walk.

Prederick wrote:

Also, this isn't as much of a political prediction, but most reports I've seen say Kyle Rittenhouse is gonna walk.

Maybe I'm overly cynical, but I figured that was a foregone conclusion from the beginning. It's just Zimmerman all over again.

I can almost see that he could not be found guilty but like O.J. I think he should still be sued for wrongful death by the family (and maybe those are happening I just haven't heard)

Civil suits can't happen until after a criminal trial finishes, I think?

And yeah, probably, although whatever he might get hit could easily get covered by GOP donors and a Kickstarter. Even an 8-figure amount.

Prederick wrote:

And yeah, probably, although whatever he might get hit could easily get covered by GOP donors and a Kickstarter. Even an 8-figure amount.

True but every bit of money drained from those folks is less they can use to f*ck over some other part of the system.

That money is better spent by non assholes then

edit: what Farley said...

Prederick wrote:

Also, this isn't as much of a political prediction, but most reports I've seen say Kyle Rittenhouse is gonna walk.

At this rate, he's not simply going to walk, he's going to be awarded damages as well. It's not even a "prediction" anymore.

Prepare yourself for "Senator Kyle Rittenhouse" very soon is my new prediction.

Prederick wrote:
Prederick wrote:

Also, this isn't as much of a political prediction, but most reports I've seen say Kyle Rittenhouse is gonna walk.

At this rate, he's not simply going to walk, he's going to be awarded damages as well. It's not even a "prediction" anymore.

Prepare yourself for "Senator Kyle Rittenhouse" very soon is my new prediction.

My primary concern is that street fascists will see the ruling as implied state-level approval for murder. “Saint Rittenhouse” is already a far-right icon for violence online.

Uniforms no longer required!

ruhk wrote:

My primary concern is that street fascists will see the ruling as implied state-level approval for murder. “Saint Rittenhouse” is already a far-right icon for violence online.

i don't see how they could interpret it any other way - hell I interpret it that way!

Mixolyde wrote:

Oh, and my prediction: The Republicans tank the bipartisan bill, just so that the build back better doesn't get passed either.

Glad to see I was half wrong about this prediction, and the Democrats tanked the BBB all by themselves.

Musk buying Twitter is the 2022 version of Berlusconi using his media empire for political gains.

My prediction: Musk will run for Texas Senate in 2028.

dejanzie wrote:

Musk buying Twitter is the 2022 version of Berlusconi using his media empire for political gains.

My prediction: Musk will run for Texas Senate in 2028.

Have you seen Don’t Look Up? Musk just got himself Platinum Level Eagle Donor Status in the Trump 2024 administration.

Seth wrote:
dejanzie wrote:

Musk buying Twitter is the 2022 version of Berlusconi using his media empire for political gains.

My prediction: Musk will run for Texas Senate in 2028.

Have you seen Don’t Look Up? Musk just got himself Platinum Level Eagle Donor Status in the Trump 2024 administration.

Trump gets re-elected in 2024 and then changes the constitution so that Musk (or other rich people who can buy enough votes) can run for President.

The President can't change the Constitution...

Robear wrote:

The President can't change the Constitution...

Yet.

Robear wrote:

The President can't change the Constitution...

IMAGE(https://media4.giphy.com/media/Af1xn3sUPnfwc/200.gif)

Ultimately, while the entire CRT and groomers thing will play a role, combined with the fact that the Republicans have a more enthusiastic voter base than the Democrats do (even with Roe v. Wade factored in), the thing that will end up killing the Democrats dead at the polls in November is inflation.

Even if it's not actually his fault, the buck stops with Biden, and the voters will punish him and his party.

EDIT: Oh wow, voters were already annoyed about inflation last November? The Dems are double-f*cked.

Prederick wrote:

Ultimately, while the entire CRT and groomers thing will play a role, combined with the fact that the Republicans have a more enthusiastic voter base than the Democrats do (even with Roe v. Wade factored in), the thing that will end up killing the Democrats dead at the polls in November is inflation.

Even if it's not actually his fault, the buck stops with Biden, and the voters will punish him and his party.

EDIT: Oh wow, voters were already annoyed about inflation last November? The Dems are double-f*cked.

While I understand, that’s really confusing to me. Do voters think a Republican would do anything different?

Yeah, politicians being all-powerful about anything economical is a very pernicious myth in Western society, kept in place by the media and the politicians themselves.

I read an interesting article some time ago partially blaming the stimulus checks for rising inflation, but they were a necessary evil in polarized times. Especially as decades of neglect left the US Welfare system unable to be more flexible and precise in their measures.

Belgium is one of the few countries left in the world with automatic wage indexation, which contributes to inflation as well but also protects the economy from hard crashes. And our inflation is just above EU average, just to say things are really complicated I guess :-).

I also read that the record profits many companies are enjoying and the lack of redistribution of those profits are a major contributor, but I haven't really seen good sources on this to be honest.

Chumpy_McChump wrote:

While I understand, that’s really confusing to me. Do voters think a Republican would do anything different?

No, but most voters don't think like that. They think, "What happened while the last guy was in charge, and do I want more of that?" They are unwilling, or unable to analyze any further than that. They don't know or care what the next guy will do, just that he's not the last guy.

The whole “most voters are too stupid to do anything g other that swip swap parties every two to four years” fits the evidence less and less, though. Twenty years ago, maybe 5% of the people I knew would be willing to cross party lines in a given election. Now that number has dropped to a solid 0%, and evidence supports my experience.

There are lots of words that are more accurate than “democracy” to describe how america picks its leaders, and I think “angerocracy” is a good one. There aren’t swing voters anymore, just levels of rage that overcome apathy.

Or levels of apathy that have been converted into rage.

Yeah, we went from anger at the black man to anger at the white man. Anger at this white man for inflation will flip us back. I believe you about the number of people willing to cross lines. The number of people willing to show up and voice their anger is based on what the last person did.