[Discussion] Ukraine - Russian Invasion and Discussion

A place for aggregated discussions of a possible conflict, it’s implications and effects, news updates and personal accounts if any. If the expected conflict kicks off, I will change the title but the function will stay the same.

If Putin uses nukes, we’re officially entering WWIII. There is no way that anyone could sit on the sidelines if that happens and no sanctions are sufficient.

I hope that there’s still a small amount of rational restraint present and it doesn’t happen. At this point I have no idea though. Ego is a powerful thing and Putin committed to this.

I live near a top ten strategic target in the US - and a few ones lower down the list - so, well... Hopefully it does not happy.

Sounds like tonight's going to be another really tough night for Kyiv. Russia's going to give them both barrels.

Farscry wrote:
Nomad wrote:

What happens if Putin nukes Kyiv?

Until today, I really thought the odds of Putin resorting to any use of nuclear armaments was effectively zero. Sure, he might posture and threaten, but I didn't think he was willing to trigger MAD.

After today, my confidence in that assessment is showing cracks. Thermobaric weapons? If that's not an empty threat, then nuclear isn't such a far-fetched step. I truly hope I am merely worrying unnecessarily.

I think it is a far step from thermobarics to nukes. You can launch a thermobaric warhead from a RPG. They are just an form of explosive that reacts differently than your usual shaped charge jet.

UK resident here. Looks like it was a great move letting all that oligarch money into the high-end London property market as it should make them reluctant to nuke their own piggy bank.
/s

If the Reddit sources are to be trusted, there's a lot of detail not being reported by mainstream media.

Firstly, it seems a large part of the mechanised troops had no supplies so they sold their fuel to buy food. This supports the stories of abandoned vehicles.

Secondly, it seems a substantial part of the invading force are either conscripts or mandatory service soldiers who thought they were conducting training exercises and not an illegal operation. Sadly, these youths are literally the expendable part of the Russian infantry.

CNN reports US analysts are surprised Ukranian AA and their air force has been able to prevent Russian air control. Putin is probably equally surprised.

That they're now hitting more civilian targets suggests it's a terror campaign to cowl the broader population from suppressing their first wave troops.

In a brief humorous interlude, as U.S. bars and pubs have begun dropping Russian made spirits from sale, I imagine the dudes who run Stolichnaya right now have to be screaming "WE'RE LATVIAN! WE'RE MADE IN LATVIA NOW!" at the top of their lungs.

Nevin73 wrote:
Farscry wrote:
Nomad wrote:

What happens if Putin nukes Kyiv?

After today, my confidence in that assessment is showing cracks. Thermobaric weapons? If that's not an empty threat, then nuclear isn't such a far-fetched step. I truly hope I am merely worrying unnecessarily.

I think it is a far step from thermobarics to nukes. You can launch a thermobaric warhead from a RPG. They are just an form of explosive that reacts differently than your usual shaped charge jet.

True, to clarify:

1) To me the surprise of bringing out the thermobaric heavy artillery is more due to the absolutely horrific effect it has on humans within the vacuum effect of the blast. It's awful enough to use such on small arms, but to deploy heavy ordnance of that type in this conflict is unconscionable. So while no, they aren't comparable in effect to nukes, it represents a seemingly substantial semi-unthinkable line crossed, which leaves fewer lines to cross to reach the deployment of nukes.

2) I also don't mean to overstate my concern regarding nukes. I still think it is unlikely that Putin will cross that line, but the fact that the odds seem to have gone from effectively zero to... some other number. Well, that's the part that is so worrying.

Probably doesn't help that I just read Ken Follett's "Never" a mere month or two ago.

I think it boils down to how deranged Putin has become, and how realistic he is about even the possibility of an internal threat to him.

If Putin really starts escalating towards nukes, after a disaster of his own making, will anyone in Russian military or GRU high command, respond and take him out. It's one thing for the megolmaniac to decide he's taking the world with him, it's another for the people in the room with him to be, "sounds good to us, boss."

The truly worrying thing is, what if there are no adults in the room, or a plausible path of forcing their way into the room. I'm sure everyone has seen pictures of Putin's alleged palace. If he is hold up in there surrounded by only the most fanatical or robotical guards, then if things get that far, we better hope that his missile command actually has the ability to disregard his orders, or that the US has completed Star Wars in secret.

and North Korea has supposedly fired a ballistic missile. I assume because they’re not the center of attention right now….

There's got to be a lot of sighing going on in Beijing right now.

Guardian Live Blog wrote:

A Ukrainian company in charge of building and maintaining roads said it was removing all road signs that could be used by invading Russian forces to find their way around the country.

The company, Ukravtodor, said in a Facebook update:

The enemy has poor communications, they cannot navigate the terrain.

Let us help them get straight to hell.”

It posted an edited photo of a standard road sign in which directions to nearby cities have been replaced with profanities that could be translated as “Go f*** yourself”, “Go f*** yourself again” and “Go f*** yourself back in Russia”.

Nomad wrote:

What happens if Putin nukes Kyiv?

He clearly doesn’t care what the world thinks, and he does not seem to be operating from a place of mental stability. It’s not like we could even (not that we would want to) respond with nukes because of Russia’s second strike capability.

This is a line that can't be crossed by Putin because it FORCES everyone to get involved. Right now, using conventional forces allow other countries and NATO to just side eye. Using a nuke will cause NATO, China and everyone else to really start pushing back.

As far as the next step, shooting a bunch of nukes, that would definitely be bad for all his billionaire partners.

Twitter advice thread from the Chair of Urban Warfare Studies. Good thread from an American tank mechanic down in the comments.

Badferret wrote:

Twitter advice thread from the Chair of Urban Warfare Studies. Good thread from an American tank mechanic down in the comments.

I'm getting distinct City 17 vibes here.

Yeah, this is where the fear of escalation comes from, for me.

The Ukranians can absolutely make the Russians bleed and bleed and bleed to take Kyiv. But in return, if the Russians (Putin, really) are absolutely committed, they'll Warsaw Uprising the city.

Ukrainian man interrupts Israeli newscast in Ukraine, probably unware that Israel refused to sell Iron Dome tech to Ukraine for fear of alienating Russia.

Here's a good spot for context and daily rundowns of events.

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...

Video showing Poland refusing to allow in Africans trying to leave Ukraine. Lest we forget that Poland's under the control of a white nationalist government.

The antisemitism animating Putin’s claim to ‘denazify’ Ukraine

The article makes a good, terrifying point.

It's not just the U.S., there is a rising global fascist movement right now.

That said, Bolsonaro's such a complete moron.

Civilians walk down Russian tank.

BBC Live Blog wrote:

Russia says a delegation has arrived in Belarus - ostensibly for talks with Ukraine.

But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has rejected the offer, saying talks in Minsk could have been possible if Russia had not attacked Ukraine from Belarusian territory.

However, he is leaving the door open to negotiations in other locations.

He said: "If there had been no aggressive action from your territory, we could talk in Minsk... other cities can be used as the venue for talks.

"Of course we want peace, we want to meet, we want the war to end. Warsaw, Bratislava, Budapest, Istanbul, Baku - we've offered them to the Russians.

"Any other city would suit us, too - in a country, from whose territory missiles are not launched at us. This is the only way negotiations can be honest and can really end the war."

This is also reasonable because I wouldn't put it past Putin to kidnap/poison/murder whoever showed up at this point.

Rat Boy wrote:

Video showing Poland refusing to allow in Africans trying to leave Ukraine. Lest we forget that Poland's under the control of a white nationalist government.

I'm mostly finding stories saying that it's the Ukrainian police that are supposed to be helping with the evacuation that are causing most of the problems, giving preference to white Ukrainians over Africans. Looking at Nze's other tweets, it looks like that particular video was of Ukranian police & soldiers trying to stop them so that the white Ukranians they were taking to border could cross first. The group Nze was with did push forward and the soldiers gave up. His latest tweet has him waiting at the Poland border as of 3 hours ago. There are stories of Nigerian students being turned away from crossing into Poland, but a lot of them were from earlier in the week and seemed to be due to a lack of communication between Nigeria and Poland. They're now supposed to be given safe passage into Poland though.

The "we cannot be certain he does not intend to go beyond Ukraine" ending is..... disquieting. Because if he does.....

The gall of Russia is just, well, galling...

Vladimir Medinsky, the head of the Russian delegation and aide to President Vladimir Putin, told state news agency RIA Novosti they would stay until the allocated time and wait for a response.

“If the talks are rejected, the Ukrainian side shall bear all responsibility for bloodshed," Medinsky said. "But we remain here until 15:00 waiting for a response from the Ukrainian side."

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said Sunday he was "waiting" for Ukraine to come to the country for negotiations with Russia, to be hosted by Belarus.

I am sure nothing at all would go wrong for the Ukrainian president if he physically showed up to any negotiations. No radiation poisoning or anything.

f*ckity f*ck f*ck...

Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered his country’s deterrence forces – which includes nuclear arms – be placed on high alert.

“Top officials in leading NATO countries have allowed themselves to make aggressive comments about our country, therefore I hereby order the minister of Defense and the chief of the General Staff [of the RF Armed Forces] to place the Russian Army Deterrence Force on combat alert,” Putin said in televised meeting with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov.

“Yes, sir,” replied Shoigu.

The Russian President also said the sanctions placed on Russia were unlawful.

According to state news agency RIA Novosti, citing the Russian Ministry of Defense, the strategic forces "are designed to deter aggression against Russia and its allies, as well as to defeat the aggressor (inflicting defeat on him), including in a war with the use of nuclear weapons."

Come on, oligarchs. Protect your own self-interests and take this guy out.

On another note, I'm pleasantly surprised that the power and internet are still on in Kyiv. Every day Zelensky can broadcast from in country aids Ukrainian resistance.

The risk of an all out nuclear war really makes me rethink my plans for investing in the future. although, we have been closer to a nuclear holocaust in the past right?

Also, kinda funny that Putin only cares about sanctions after they have been implemented. Had plenty of opportunity to just like.... not invade.

Some plausible info on the Russian nuclear forces' status here:
https://twitter.com/russianforces/st...

In short, it connects the 'circuits', normally disabled, that an order to use the weapons would go over. This includes some automatic responses to a decapitation strike but only if actual nuclear detonations on Russian territory are detected. So this lowers their vulnerability to a first strike without necessarily raising their own ability to launch one. If this guy's to be believed, then, it doesn't sound like a significant worry beyond the concern inherent in any nuclear saber-rattling.