A place for aggregated discussions of a possible conflict, it’s implications and effects, news updates and personal accounts if any. If the expected conflict kicks off, I will change the title but the function will stay the same.
Looks like things are heating up so I wanted to establish a discussion area so no one will have to parse which group is appropriate for which discussion, and it’s all in one place.
My prognostication - my worry - is that an agreement may have been set between Russia and China such that Ukraine becomes not just an invasion to destabilize Eastern Europe, but a kind of feint for a simultaneous lightning invasion of Taiwan. I’m disturbed by the fact that Putin has taken time from the planning and his internal troubles to sit face to face with the Chinese leadership. I suppose he could be arguing for logistical and diplomatic assistance but if it were me I’d say he’s offering them a chance to go at Taiwan while the US is very stressed and focused elsewhere.
Again, though, this is a general discussion space not limited to uninformed guesses. 
That’s just my own kickoff thoughts.
It's not an unreasonable scenario, and no doubt one that is being closely examined in numerous military planning sessions across the world 
I originally thought that Putin was going to wait for the weakest US moment to invade Ukraine.
But now, I think he sees it as the gift that keeps on giving. All he has to do is military exercises whenever he wants something or whenever it can distract or kick the US/Europe when its down.
This is the damage that the Trump coup has already done. At this point, corporations have to know this is bad for business. I know it is too much to hope for them to hard break from Trumpism though...
Land invasions require a massive mobilization of men and materials as well as coordinated training exercises to shake off the rust.
Amphibious and airborne invasions require more of both. Neither of which can be hidden from spy satellites.
I've been concerned in the most paranoid recesses of my mind about the same thing, Robear. If China wants to retake Taiwan, the "best" time to do so would be while another nation simultaneously draws attention and obligations from the US and as many other nations as possible.
Likewise, Russia would benefit from its opponents having their resources and attention divided.
I keep hoping that I'm just worrying over nothing and that China has too much of a vested interest in establishing economic dominance as a rising superpower to risk that by threatening their staring match with Taiwan.
I always wonder about endgames, assuming some rationality existing with the various actors. My understanding is that Russia is doing better economically in the short term with the rebound in oil, but long term their economy is pretty much screwed as they really don't have any other economic engines.
Assuming rationality, Putin and the Oligarchs must know this, which is kind of confirmed with their diversification with property in London, New York and other cities around the world. They plan on bleeding their own people for as long as possible before the gig is up. Then they'll walk away and disappear into some compound in the West.
If they invade, I assume they stop at the Dnieper and are gambling they can do so quickly and without much resistance.
The West will cry foul and probably seize/freeze assets but probably stop short of taking all of the Oligarch's money.
What happens though if it doesn't go smoothly. What happens if it does take Russia weeks or even months to reach Dnieper? What happens if there is an insurgency in the territory they take? Retrofitted DJI drones start taking out Russian armor. With the warning from the retired Russian general this week, I do think there is real danger to Putin if the invasion goes sideways.
As for China. I again assume that Winnie the Pooh is a rational actor but I honestly have no idea which way the economic fallout would go if China seizes Taiwan, at least long term. If they can do it quickly and without destroying the real prize of Taiwan's manufacturing capacity, then I'd guess it would be a net positive from Pooh's perspective, but that is totally a guess.
I think their overall goal will be to rush in and break stuff and kill people trying to take down the government so that their proxies can take over. That would mean pinning major forces in place while a main force rushes south and west to hit Kiev hard. This would be preceded by a “shock and awe” aerial, cyber and special forces campaign aimed at killing or capturing Zelensky and other leaders as well as taking down communications infrastructure. The endgame would be to let things simmer in chaos while NATO and US negotiate a withdrawal. Then they leave having advantaged the rebels, and Ukraine will fall victim to rigged elections and propaganda, emerging as a Russian puppet akin to Belarus. Who knows, they might even be “united” with Belarus as an “indepent” buffer union “protecting Russian sovereignty” from Nato aggression.
From the analysis I've read, if they do cross the Dnieper and especially if they try and take Kiev with boots on the ground, Russian casualties will go way up regardless of outcome.
Plus, the Russians are probably hoping that the higher percentage of ethnic/cultural Russian people in the eastern part of Ukraine diminishes the likelihood of an insurgency.
Zelensky's on the first plane to Dubai ten minutes after the offensive starts.
I think their overall goal will be to rush in and break stuff and kill people trying to take down the government so that their proxies can take over. That would mean pinning major forces in place while a main force rushes south and west to hit Kiev hard. This would be preceded by a “shock and awe” aerial, cyber and special forces campaign aimed at killing or capturing Zelensky and other leaders as well as taking down communications infrastructure. The endgame would be to let things simmer in chaos while NATO and US negotiate a withdrawal. Then they leave having advantaged the rebels, and Ukraine will fall victim to rigged elections and propaganda, emerging as a Russian puppet akin to Belarus. Who knows, they might even be “united” with Belarus as an “indepent” buffer union “protecting Russian sovereignty” from Nato aggression.
This is the piece I don't get. Is the Russian military capable of this type of logistical triumph? This is the internet, so what do I know, but isn't this a weak point for them?
I could see them moving into the disputed (Donbas?) areas where all the irregulars already are. But again, so what? Then you're continuing to pay troops in the field and...you're going to get the West to concede a bunch of stuff?
My prognostication - my worry - is that an agreement may have been set between Russia and China such that Ukraine becomes not just an invasion to destabilize Eastern Europe, but a kind of feint for a simultaneous lightning invasion of Taiwan.
We all know China's going for Taiwan eventually, my only reasoning against this is that I genuinely don't think they'd do this while holding the Olympics, for some reason.
That and OG Slinger's point. Much like with Hong Kong, for propaganda reasons, when China decides it truly wants Taiwan, they're not going to be quiet about it in the slightest.
I thought this CNN interview of Michael Kimmage was pretty good at giving an overview/idea of what's driving things and potential impacts
Top_Shelf, I think it's likely that Russia has special ops teams inside Kiev, and at other strategic locations. They did that for the Crimea operation; they were called "Little Green Men" by the West and seem to have been GRU, VDV and Special Operations Forces. They successfully took over the Simferopol airport and parliament, and most of the Ukrainian military bases in Crimea were either occupied or blockaded by them at the start of the operation. I'd expect something similar but more focussed if they set Kiev and a takedown of the government as the goal.
If they can't take down at least part of the Ukrainian power grid, blow up stuff in the capital with missiles and bombs, and severely degrade communications with leadership (at least at the start), then they are screwed. Hence, the idea of a decapitation attempt *like*, the one attempted against Hussein. Perhaps not on the same scale but they really need that part if they are looking to really disrupt Ukraine's leadership.
I don't think Zelensky will flee outside the country, but I'm sure he has multiple bunkers awaiting his needs.
Don't mind my tag.
Top_Shelf, saw your question in the other thread. What Putin ultimately wants in Ukraine Is a complaint authoritarian government that looks to Russia for leadership. He’s looking to put the Soviet Union, or at least the Warsaw Pact, back together, and he’s been trying to destabilize Ukraine for decades. Look at it from that angle and tell me what you see.
The West has already conceded. And Putin doesn’t care who sees the build up at this point. I don’t necessarily see Taiwan on the table right now but it is a matter of time. Good to get your passports in order!
Thanks Robear, really appreciate your insights here.
I can see what you're saying about the HOW Putin could do it. "It" being toppling a democratically-elected government on Putin's border that is increasingly interested in the Western approach and less interested in his Mafioso-style approach to governance. SF and some other tricky stuff to enhance the numerical superiority Moscow has just outside UKR borders. Hit the nerve centers and move quickly to chase the government out.
I also understand WHY Putin is against UKR (some of which is touched on above). Was reading some analysis about long range missiles and in that they mentioned how Russia (Putin) views central/eastern Europe as his buffer and wants as many miles of steppe between the West and Russia (the article talked about the strategic value/threat of long-range conventional missiles on the 'ocean' of Eastern Europe). Thus: the soft absorption of Belarus, Crimea, constant threatening of the Baltics, pressure on FIN/SWE.
What I'm still not clear on is what he expects comes after any immediate "win" in UKR.
Let's say he invades on Wednesday and regardless of tactics, has toppled the government and his tanks are in Kyiv in...three weeks. What is he doing after the first weeks of March? I mean, install a pro-Moscow regime? Sure. Will the UKR people stand for that? Or is he going to be facing a protracted occupation that is going to sap his military's (already low) morale? And I haven't gotten to the economic impacts to him and his capos. (I am assuming that the West really can/will inflict major $$$ pain on them by freezing assets, stopping Nord 2, and generally impoverishing the Russian economy even more than it already is.) Like, what is the plan for after April? What does he think this looks like next Fall? Does he think things are better?
Maybe it makes sense if he's looking at a bad poker hand of like, 8clubs-9diamonds and he's going to really push for the (unlikely) straight draw of:
- Invade and win fast
- Get land/space and friendlier (if weak) govt in UKR
- Short-term gain of pAtRiOtIsM to distract from other domestic issues
- Short-term win against NATO/The West
- Argue this is a Major Strategic Victory by him as Great-Military-Leader /JohnConnor
But with all that come these trade-offs:
- No gas pipeline
- High costs of occupation (I mean, unless he thinks they go in fast and are out super-fast which seems crazy)
- Frozen assets of criminal friends/co-conspirators
- Big (?) economic pain for RUS could foment further domestic discontent, which will be even costlier to police
- Solidarity inside NATO, even expansion (maybe he's banking that by winning UKR he will further undermine the weak West and they will scurry away from his macho manliness b/c they're so effete)
I'm trying to overlay this w/the US invasion of Iraq. They're not the same situation, but at least there was some kind of story that made logical sense from a certain point of view. Invade = freedom from Saddam = everyone will want freedomy-freedom-of-freedom-town = cakewalk = Iraq as GER/JPN. I mean, that thinking was faulty on a ton of levels but at least it was some kind of articulable narrative.
Anne Applebaum in The Atlantic had a good write-up about how many folks view Putin as being a product of the collapse of the Soviet empire and the #1 lesson he learned was that compromise (glasnost) was the real problem. You have to be strong/strong/strong/strong/strong or you will get bullied. So, just like a Mafioso, he's going to keep placing bets to defend his honor and keep escalating and continuing to engage in high-risk activities. To do anything less is to have already lost.
So maybe Putin's story is, "I ain't got that much shit, I gots to keep playing these bad hands b/c the world is a zero-sum game of high stakes poker and I'm the 9th-highest stack in the world and if you're not #1 you're a complete loser and they take you out back and shoot you in my part of the city, so no playing to maintain my current position. I have to be making risky bets that I think will pay off more than not and I will trade the shots fired at NATO to (maybe) undermine them (b/c after all I think they're weak Westerners that don't understand hard power) and on the upside I get UKR off the board and they won't become a NATO and I've pushed my land-ocean border out a bit more, gotten some good feels for the people so they stay off my back. And the financial pain is how Westerners measure worth and I'll take that pain [I really don't get how he can possibly ignore this part - if RUS economy tanks b/c of sanctions, what's he going to do, goose things with his personal fortune? Hope folks don't go into the streets? Crack down hard if they do?] b/c maaaaaaybe it goes away after a little bit b/c the weak West will come crawling back for my oils."
Maybe that's a story that makes sense in his head.
Germany still wants the pipeline to go ahead. A Moscow-friendly government would have a lot of popular support in the Ukraine. No expensive occupation necessary. What big economic pain for Russia, I don’t see it. NATO is a paper tiger.
b/c the weak West will come crawling back for my oils."
Don't forget gas. I suspect European sanctions will be dropped quickly due to gas.
Germany's reserves right now are around 33% full and dropping.
It has been a very warm winter, so picture what happens in a normal or even cold winter with no Russian gas - the lion's share of our gas comes from Russia - coming in
Hard to laugh so much now we’re living it.
The US has already begun large-scale gas shipments to Germany. The US is the largest gas producer in the world, by 50% more than Russia. So that will not be an issue for Europe.
As to what he wants and why, the best judge when you get past his personal history is his list of demands. You’ll find a recap in the last paragraph of this article. Just invert the demands to see what he fears - the loss of regional and global influence, an increase in the demands for actual democracy, a change in Russia’s outlook that would refocus it on Europe and thus make it a “follower” rather than leading it’s clients on a different path.
In a very real way, he’s the anti-Peter the Great. Instead of working to advance Russia by pushing it on a path to change led by French and British ideals, borrowing from their experiences and forcing mass societal changes, he is more of a Stalin, ruthlessly pushing the country back into a period of extreme inequity and authoritarian rule. Not even an oligarchy, but more of a crony state like the CCCP he grew up in. That country was notorious for it’s disdain not just for facts, but for the elements of a functional economy.
It’s also quite worrying, for the reason that many powerful Republicans and their propaganda organs revere Putin as an exemplar. We tread that path to our own sorrow.
Not to downplay the seriousness of a possible invasion and I could be taking in too much info about domestic politics but I can’t shake the feeling that the timing has something to do with the Jan. 6th commissions work. With the possibility of revelations that expose Russian influence in the previous administration (not a small number of folks in this country still do not accept this as reality) and if TFG gets arrested then I foresee a real shitshow in this country that may end up working in Putins favor as cover for his invasion. I don’t discount the possibility that it may just my own focused perspective in regards to domestic issues but I don’t see the invasion of Ukraine as something Russia would benefit from if taken as a singular event. Just strikes me as a pressure ploy waiting for other pressures to multiply a potential favorable outcome with little in the way of repercussions if it doesn’t produce expected results.
1. Russian influence in our elections has already been proven. Repeatedly. 2. Trump will never get arrested.
3. I doubt the timing of Ukraine has anything to do with the Jan 6th commission.
4. Trump will never get arrested.
Germany still wants the pipeline to go ahead. A Moscow-friendly government would have a lot of popular support in the Ukraine. No expensive occupation necessary. What big economic pain for Russia, I don’t see it. NATO is a paper tiger.
Source, on the popular support? Maybe in the east of the country, but I've seen reporting that indicated a surprising amount of opposition to an invasion from even the Russian speaking Ukrainians.
The economic pain would come in the form of seized western assets of the Oligarchs.
Russia is a griftstate.
Nationalized/Oligarch controlled oil and industries entirely dependent upon oil and old tech. A aging populace with just enough comfort to prevent too much opposition and even then, Navalny is still alive, and that the fact that he is alive speaks to how much Putin fears his own people.
Europe is way ahead of the US in the adoption of electric vehicles and Macron is pushing France towards more nuclear energy.
How long can oil keep Russia afloat? How does re-creating a USSR style map/buffer help Putin in the Oligarchs long term?
Everyone keeps saying that Putin is playing from a decades long playbook but if that is true, the most obvious play that he is making is just to continue the grift for as long as possible.
Seizing all of Ukraine and opening up even the potential of prolonged resistance would hurt the grift.
Taking just the Russian speaking eastern part of the country might be a worthwhile gamble. Cripples Ukraine, and eliminates non-state controlled airwaves and news reaching into Russia. Provides a shot across the bow of NATO regarding expansion but possibly limits the amount of sanctions placed on the Oligarchs.
I still think it's a gamble and the whole situation reads as weakness and not strength.
Top_Shelf is right, there is more to this than just Putin feeling nostalgic for the old Soviet boarders.
There was no prolonged resistance in Crimea. And he has history. Chechnya, Azerbaijan, Georgia, propping up Syria. Threatening the Baltic states and Poland (via Belarus), as well as - almost unbelievably - the Scandinavian three. This is more than a grift. This is a desire to build a new wall of buffer states and re-establish Russia as the core from which power flows out to subordinate countries, on a scale that is secure from Western intervention for decades at least. And *that* is what ensures the grift.
There is no way that taking action *limits* the scope of sanctions. What would be the mechanism of that?
Putin will use the oligarchs but he doesn't give a shit about them. They know they need to toe the line or end up in a pit somewhere. I hope that this turmoil pushes Europe further along the path to independence from fossil fuels but, for now, any cut in supply would cause great turmoil and likely push Europe further to the right. If it was just about the grift, a lot of the actions during Putin's reign wouldn't make sense.
So there’s got to at least be some hope that the Ukraine could repel an invasion right? I mean Russia has lost some key wars in recent years and I’ve read that the Russian army has some serious problems with everything from supply to morale.
A similar comparison would be if Mexico had Taiwan’s military (ie, if Taiwan were next door to the US). Taiwan has a decent military, but they are a small country and the US overpowers them in many ways. (My comparison source is globalfirepower.com, which compares militaries on a statistical basis. Not perfect but definitely in the ballpark for this kind of discussion, in my opinion.)
Yeah, everything I’ve read indicates there’s no way Ukraine could stop a committed Russian invasion. They’re completely outmatched.
Sure, they’d suffer badly trying to capture and hold any urban centers. I fear cities with serious opposition would just be leveled. Isn’t that what happened in Chechnya? It’d be pretty brutal.
I’m not sure how much of the Ukrainian people is motivated to fight a sustained asymmetric war against Russian occupiers, compared to the Iraqis and Afghanis. I wonder if Putin is banking on that.
I hope Putin’s ambitions are more limited in scope, but…
Read up on the history of Ukraine in WW2. Guerilla warfare is actively trained in their forces and their SF folks have been actively training (refreshing in man cases) that training with their "citizen soldiers". It's one thing where they punch above their weight.
I think there is some real uncertainty to how effective the Russian military can be. The western world is perhaps a little spoiled (not sure if this is the right word) by the US/NATO's ability to force project.
How well can the Russian's maintain their equipment in the field? What happens when things start breaking down? Can they operate effectively in weather/night?
Watching TankTok videos, the Russians are still relying on a lot of older vehicles.
60 minutes just had a piece about how deadly American support vehicles are during training. How much training have the Russian truck drivers had and will it hold up under live fire?
Without a doubt the Russians can take a lot of territory in the first few days. I think anything beyond that is pure guess work.
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