NFL 2021: The playoffs thread

Pages

Edit: If you're new to this thread, feel free to skip ahead to the start of the Divisional Road discussion.

============================================================

Nothing fancy; just the schedule, current odds* and a few other things:

WILD CARD SCHEDULE

Saturday

Raiders at Bengals (4:35p, NBC/Peacock)
... Bengals -6.5

Patriots at Bills (8:15p, CBS/Paramount+)
... Sean -4

Sunday

Eagles at Buccaneers (1p, Fox)
... Bucs -9

49ers at Cowboys (4:30p CBS/Paramount+/Amazon Prime; also the Nickelodeon game)
... Cowboys -3

Steelers at Chiefs (8:15p, NBC/Peacock)
... Chiefs -12.5!!!!

Monday

Cardinals at Rams (8:15p, ABC/ESPN/ESPN+ plus what appears to be the ManningCast on ESPN2)
... Rams -4.5

Byes: Packers, Titans

* from a source I could get without turning off my firewall; I have no idea if these numbers are any good, but I included it to get folks a sense of what games might be close or (in the case of PIT-KC and PHI-TB) not

BEST AND WORST OF THE WILD CARD WEEKEND

Best games: Cards-Rams and Niners-Cowboys in that order. Or maybe Niners-Cowboys and then Cards-Rams. Maybe Niners-Cowboys because we've already seen Cards-Rams twice? I dunno. I'll watch both.

IMAGE(https://media.giphy.com/media/mlnCxRMLKtKesPr3pt/giphy.gif)

Raiders-Bengals could be fun, too.

IMAGE(https://media.giphy.com/media/8jbGjs6jskLlrd78mA/giphy.gif)

Worst games: Gotta be Steelers-Chiefs. If only Brandon Staley hadn't called that timeout or if Daniel Carlson had doinked that FG, we wouldn't have to watch Ben Whatshisname. Nothing against the Steelers but I'm tired of the announcers spit-shining that turd.

Eagles-Bucs is probably going to suck, too. But it's the playoffs, and I'll watch because I'm programmed to.

To check out someone (obviously not me) who knows what they're talking about, here's a long WCW preview from Football Outsiders.

ROOTING INTERESTS

Welp, my team is home for the fourth straight year (feels like 14, let's be honest):

IMAGE(https://media.giphy.com/media/WdzOAc7JlKub25KPXj/giphy.gif)

See ya, Sam. Now I get to watch some football that doesn't suck. Time to pick a playoff team!

So ... the Bills? (because they're Carolina North)? Or maybe the Bengals because they're fun? The Niners are fun. Cowboys are kinda fun but I can't ever be a Cowboy Fan.

Speaking of fun, I'll enjoy watching the Packers, but I'm going to pretend their QB is a Fitzpatrick-esque journeyman named Darren Blodgers.

2022 DRAFT ORDER
... for those of us who have no rooting interest going forward in the 2021 season; this list includes only the teams locked into spots:

1. Jaguars

IMAGE(https://media.giphy.com/media/52lZpppKBIvxdWAObI/giphy.gif)

2. Lions
3. Texans
4. Jets
5. Giants
6. Panthers (who don't pick again till Round 4)
7. Giants (via Bears; part of the deal to move up to get Fields)
8. Falcons
9. Broncos
10. Jets (via Seahawks; part of the Jamal Adams trade)
11. Footballers
12. Vikings
13. Browns
14. Ravens
15. Eagles (via Dolphins)
16. Eagles (via Colts; part of the Wentz deal)
17. Chargers
18. Saints

edited for a typo

Enix wrote:

Patriots at Bills (8:15p, CBS/Paramount+)
... Bill -4.5

Are you being cheeky and saying the Patriots are favored or is it a typo?

Latest PFF mock draft. The edge rushers still going 1-2, but we have a QB going in the middle of the top 10...

Niners!

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/kpvejqn.jpg)

*Legion* wrote:

Latest PFF mock draft. The edge rushers still going 1-2, but we have a QB going in the middle of the top 10... :D

Matt Rhule's gonna love him that local guy, it'll buy him a couple more years of QB development time . . .

Nickelodeon game! Hell yes!

Welcome to the playoffs! In what new interesting way can the Packers get me to start believing and then utterly crush me.

If it's going to be painful hopefully it's quick. As for the Super Bowl I'd like to see after I stop crying. Bengals vs... well f*ck. I don't like any of those NFC teams. Besides the Bengals I guess the Bills are the only team that wouldn't really bother me.

Just not Brady, please.

I hope either:
- the Niners put 50 on the Cowboys
- or, the Cowboys make it to the NFC finals and then whoever (Green Bay? Bucs?) hang 50 on them.

Need ultimate Jerry sadness.

Is no one hyping a possible Mike McCarthy vs ImmunAaron matchup because nobody cares or because everybody knows McCarthy will blow it if he has a chance?

Pink Stripes wrote:

Is no one hyping a possible Mike McCarthy vs ImmunAaron matchup because nobody cares or because everybody knows McCarthy will blow it if he has a chance?

I think it's because nobody really wants either of them to win.

It was more fun when they were on the same side destroying each other.

*Legion* wrote:
Pink Stripes wrote:

Is no one hyping a possible Mike McCarthy vs ImmunAaron matchup because nobody cares or because everybody knows McCarthy will blow it if he has a chance?

I think it's because nobody really wants either of them to win.

It was more fun when they were on the same side destroying each other.

I'd like to see Dak succeed despite Jerruh.

Right now that's the only plotline I like.

Well, I'd like to see Pittsburgh crushed but that's only because it's Ben's fairwell tour.

iaintgotnopants wrote:
Enix wrote:

Patriots at Bills (8:15p, CBS/Paramount+)
... Bill -4.5

Are you being cheeky and saying the Patriots are favored or is it a typo?

Ahahaha, yep. Typo. Fixed it! See if you can figure out who's favored now.

Unrelated: It's Black Tuesday in Carolina. O-line, D-line and special teams coaches are out.

Rhule inherited STC Chase Blackburn when he took the job. O-line C Pat Meyer has coached O-lines for a long time but was outside Rhule's comfort zone (meaning he has no Temple or Baylor ties). Interestingly, Rhule brought D-line coach C Frank Okam with him from Baylor. Okam had zero NFL experience (which is a big big problem in Charlotte) but he was one of DC Phil Snow's guys, and Snow is one of Rhule's guys.

Rhule's current hot seat setting: dialed up to 7 from 4.

*Legion* wrote:

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/kpvejqn.jpg)

Raise your hand if you would shiv your coach to bring in Flores. I like my coach and I would.

If Shanahan blows another 28-3 ish lead in the playoffs, yeah, I'd take somebody else.

Enix wrote:
iaintgotnopants wrote:
Enix wrote:

Patriots at Bills (8:15p, CBS/Paramount+)
... Bill -4.5

Are you being cheeky and saying the Patriots are favored or is it a typo?

Ahahaha, yep. Typo. Fixed it! See if you can figure out who's favored now.

Unrelated: It's Black Tuesday in Carolina. O-line, D-line and special teams coaches are out.

Rhule inherited STC Chase Blackburn when he took the job. O-line C Pat Meyer has coached O-lines for a long time but was outside Rhule's comfort zone (meaning he has no Temple or Baylor ties). Interestingly, Rhule brought D-line coach C Frank Okam with him from Baylor. Okam had zero NFL experience (which is a big big problem in Charlotte) but he was one of DC Phil Snow's guys, and Snow is one of Rhule's guys.

Rhule's current hot seat setting: dialed up to 7 from 4.

So, it's everyone but Rhule who is the problem? Gotcha.

Rhule and Darnold are tied together and get another year to work it out. Darnold was good for a few weeks, but then the OL fell apart.

Is that their take?

Need ultimate Jerry sadness.

Times a million! It is a shame he has guys on his team I would root for otherwise.

garion333 wrote:

So, it's everyone but Rhule who is the problem? Gotcha.

Rhule and Darnold are tied together and get another year to work it out. Darnold was good for a few weeks, but then the OL fell apart.

Is that their take?

Pretty much. Rhule hates admitting that he's wrong. For instance, in yesterday's presser, Rhule conveniently forgot he has final say on personnel and said that bringing HEY DARNOLD to Charlotte was a collective decision. Just like Teddy B and Joe Brady were, too, I guess.

The bigger issue here is that Rhule can't adjust. Their third quarter performance all season was terrible. And HEY DARNOLD looked pretty good for 2-3 weeks until other teams got film and realized that Carolina was going to run the same stuff and couldn't be bothered to change it up.

Meanwhile, here's why lots of folks said HEY DARNOLD looked pretty decent Sunday (29 of 42, 219 yards, 2 TDs): More than a third of his throws were at or behind the line of scrimmage. In fairness, he completed the vast majority of them.

This Next Gen season chart is damning, too: a passer rating at or below league average on all throws (left, middle, right) from 10 yards and behind the LOS, passer rating of 49.7 for 10-20 yard throws on the left side of the field and a 9.6 for 10-20 yard throws on the right side of the field.

Not a typo. Nine point six. League average is 68 points higher.

Gah. Sorry for derailing my own thread, but my contempt for Rhule and Darnold can't be contained to the weekly threads.

Well, Enix, if you want more statistical Darnold-bashing, Football Outsiders has their yearly Quick Reads summary article up. Sam Darnold comes out the third-worst QB by DYAR, and that's only because he's buoyed by his rushing, which gave him a bonus 55 DYAR. Passing-wise, he had -558 DYAR, which would have made him second after the truly amazing and epic performance of Mike Glennon this year, but Sam's legs put him in total in third place, after the New York duo of Glennon and Zach Wilson.

Since Darnold's occupying $18.6m on their cap no matter what, bringing in another QB is going to be a bit tough.

They can certainly go with a draft pick, but I'm throwing this prediction out there: Panthers trade for Nick Foles, who would count only $8m against their cap, and have an "open competition" between Foles and Darnold for the job.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

-558 DYAR

Is that bad? That's bad, right? Like, Dan Orlofsky bad? Or Ryan Leaf bad?

*Legion* wrote:

... an "open competition" between Foles and Darnold for the job.

I'm Team BDN in this scenario. Anything's better than Darnold.

My gut feeling right now is that the Panthers will look for O-linemen on the FA market (because that worked out so great this year!!) and draft QB Kenny Pickett of Pittsburgh ...

... who committed to Temple when Matt Rhule was HC there. I wish I were making this up.

When Pickett is sacked 85 times before Carolina's bye week, it will again be a "collective decision" to chip in for his funeral expenses.

Enix wrote:

My gut feeling right now is that the Panthers will look for O-linemen on the FA market (because that worked out so great this year!!) and draft QB Kenny Pickett of Pittsburgh ...

... who committed to Temple when Matt Rhule was HC there. I wish I were making this up.

Do they move down in this scenario, or take Pickett at #6? Not sure #6 would be a very hot trade-up target in this draft, but it’s early, so who knows?

Hey how about trading up to #1 to guarantee your choice of QB?

I love that Rhule framed Darnold's salary as "if he plays good we've got a steal at that price!" and "if he plays bad, well, it's low end starter money".

Darnold could be the worst QB in the league, or third worst, and it doesn't matter because he doesn't cost too much.

Genius!

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Well, Enix, if you want more statistical Darnold-bashing, Football Outsiders has their yearly Quick Reads summary article up. Sam Darnold comes out the third-worst QB by DYAR, and that's only because he's buoyed by his rushing, which gave him a bonus 55 DYAR. Passing-wise, he had -558 DYAR, which would have made him second after the truly amazing and epic performance of Mike Glennon this year, but Sam's legs put him in total in third place, after the New York duo of Glennon and Zach Wilson.

Great article. Deebo and Kittle looking strong. Let's go Niners!

garion333 wrote:

I love that Rhule framed Darnold's salary as "if he plays good we've got a steal at that price!" and "if he plays bad, well, it's low end starter money".

Darnold could be the worst QB in the league, or third worst, and it doesn't matter because he doesn't cost too much.

Genius!

His 2022 cap figure is currently 15th highest among QB contracts. It's not that low end. Granted offseason moves may change that ranking somewhat, but right now he's basically clustered right next to Baker, Brady, and Fresno's finest. He'll be making more than Taysom and Jameis combined in 2022.

Darnold was cheap this year. Picking up his option means he's not really cheap next year.

Carolina would be team #7, #8 if you count each stop in Philadelphia separately. He's basically on a Well-Hung Josh McCown career track.

Foles would cost Carolina $8m in cap space, which would rank 27th among QBs in 2022 (his full cap figure is $10.66m, but the extra $2.66m is prorated bonus that would become dead money on Chicago's cap).

Darnold + Foles would basically add up to one Jimmy Garoppolo cap figure.

Barnwell has floated the idea of the Panthers trading for Garoppolo, but I'm not sure how they make the cap figure work. They could offer a higher pick to the 49ers in exchange for them converting some of Jimmy's salary to bonus and keeping it on the Niners cap. It would have to be a 2023 pick, of course, because Carolina already burned their 2nd and 3rd rounders for Darnold and CJ Henderson. And even still, there's only so much money they can expect the Niners to keep.

It's ridiculous how much better off they would be without Darnold squatting on over $18m of their cap room.

garion333 wrote:

I love that Rhule framed Darnold's salary as "if he plays good we've got a steal at that price!" and "if he plays bad, well, it's low end starter money".

Darnold could be the worst QB in the league, or third worst, and it doesn't matter because he doesn't cost too much.

Genius!

Conveniently, that was the rationale for their previous QB, too. Teddy Twogloves signed with Carolina in 2020 for 3 years/$63M. Paying ~$21M/year for a mid-tier QB was a decent deal, right?

Of course, it made absolutely no sense to pay two guys mid-tier money when one of those guys was actually playing for another team this season. The whole thing drives me absolutely nuts.

Meanwhile, I've seen reports that Tua ends up in Charlotte somehow. I don't know his contract situation or where the Panthers will scrape enough draft picks, but that's one of the many QB rumors out there.

*Legion* wrote:

It's ridiculous how much better off they would be without Darnold squatting on over $18m of their cap room.

Keeping Cam or Teddy B or drafting Fields or even (gulp) McCorkle would have solved this problem. But none of those guys went to Temple or Baylor so.

Giants have fired Joe Judge.

Matt Rhule --> Temple/Baylor = Greg Schiano-->Rutgers

There's definitely a comparison that should make you feel great.

Edit: Giants fire Joe Judge.

No idea why they'd bother to wait the extra day.

I now see the genius in hiring Joe Barry as the DC in GB.

With all these coaching moves it's hard to keep your staff. Unless they have already been a HC and it didn't work out.

4D chess!

Pages