NFL 2021: The Week 1 thread

Enix wrote:

Anyone think the Texans or the Lions (but probably the Texans) will be the first team in NFL history to go 0-and-17?

Houston definitely has a shot. I mean they were a 4-12 team last year, and that was with Watson throwing for 4800 yards, 33 TDs, 7 INTs, plus another 400+ yards rushing and 3 rushing TDs.

They're not going to get anything near that from the quarterback position this season. They've had a ton of roster turnover, but their big additions were... I don't know. Mark Ingram? Chris Conley? Terrance Mitchell? Desmond King?

We'll see what Lovie Smith has in him as defensive coordinator, after 5 years away from the NFL game.

Prediction: The Texans are so bad the NFL takes away the franchise and moves them to LA.

garion333 wrote:

Prediction: The Texans are so bad the NFL takes away the franchise and moves them to LA.

IMAGE(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EjXnFVrX0AEL6z0.jpg)

garion333 wrote:

Prediction: The Texans are so bad the NFL takes away the franchise and moves them to LA.

Yes but actually locate them in Anaheim. Still the "Los Angeles Texans" though.

garion333 wrote:

Prediction: The Texans are so bad the NFL takes away the franchise and moves them to LA.

I hope the same thing happens to the Raiders and we end up with 4 teams in one stadium.

I'm good with all of this.

Vector wrote:

I hope the same thing happens to the Raiders and we end up with 4 teams in one stadium.

Oh sure, put the Raiders in the same stadium as their AFC West rival Chargers.

Over-under of 9.5 on stabbed Chargers by Raider fans in the parking lot.

(No Chargers fans stabbed though, since there aren't any in the stands)

Just Raiders fans stabbing other Raiders fans. I like it.

*Legion* wrote:
garion333 wrote:

Prediction: The Texans are so bad the NFL takes away the franchise and moves them to LA.

Yes but actually locate them in Anaheim. Still the "Los Angeles Texans" though.

Anaheim is still closer to Los Angeles than Santa Clara is to the San Francisco 49ers, with better traffic.

I mean we already have the Inglewood Chargers/Rams and East Rutherford Giants/Jets, it's not like Anaheim is any further.

If we're stacking teams in Kroenke stadium, the Eagles have to move into East Rutherford.

*Legion* wrote:
garion333 wrote:

Prediction: The Texans are so bad the NFL takes away the franchise and moves them to LA.

Yes but actually locate them in Anaheim. Still the "Los Angeles Texans" though.

It would obviously be the "Los Angeles Texans of Anaheim".

Dammit pants, read your Sleeper DMs!

There are DMs?

I don't know how that website works.

iaintgotnopants wrote:

There are DMs?

I don't know how that website works.

Of course there's a DM. Also, the website is a mimic. It got a 19; what's your AC?

sh*t, I thought today was Thursday and I was already blowing off prime time football.

Grats! Now you can do it two days in a row!

I find it weird how the football world has completely forgotten that Tampa was a wildcard team that went 1-4 vs winning record teams in the regular season. Nobody considered them an elite team when the playoffs began.

But the expectation now is that the playoff team is who they will be for a whole season and postseason.

I mean, it could happen, but I'm not altogether convinced that they're not simply a good team that got hot in the playoff run like an Eli Giants squad.

The NFC South being what it is, it might not matter much. If none of the other three teams significantly outperforms expectations, 10-7 and a division win might be Tampa's hard floor.

Tampa ended the year extremely healthy, right? And then Vea came back in the playoffs. He really was the part that brought the D together.

garion333 wrote:

Tampa ended the year extremely healthy, right? And then Vea came back in the playoffs. He really was the part that brought the D together.

I do have to admit that a surprisingly-athletic gigantic big man still being able to wreck sh*t in today's NFL does make my heart sing. The archetype has fallen deeply out of favor with current defenses.

*Legion* wrote:

I find it weird how the football world has completely forgotten that Tampa was a wildcard team that went 1-4 vs winning record teams in the regular season. Nobody considered them an elite team when the playoffs began.

But the expectation now is that the playoff team is who they will be for a whole season and postseason.

I mean, it could happen, but I'm not altogether convinced that they're not simply a good team that got hot in the playoff run like an Eli Giants squad.

The NFC South being what it is, it might not matter much. If none of the other three teams significantly outperforms expectations, 10-7 and a division win might be Tampa's hard floor.

Counterpoint:

  • Record prior to the bye week: 7-5
  • Record after the bye week: 4-0

Given a Covid limited offseason and a transition with offenses for Brady to Arians/Leftwich they started out of the gate slow. Bye happens, Brady has a bigger hand in play calling (including ordering WAAAAAYYYYYYY too many fat lenny walks across the field), team is undefeated from the bye to the Superb Owl.

The truth likely lies somewhere between the two extremes of a 10-7 team and a 17-0 with a pure mean between is 13-4 / 14-3.

Who in that division is giving them trouble? The only tricky games on their schedule are Miami, New England, Rams. Even at a "disasterous" 1-2 in these games they roll into the bye with an 8-2 record.

After the bye, just LOOK at the schedule:
@WAS - W
vsNYG - W
@IND - W
@ATL - W
vsBUF - Toss up
vsNO - W
@CAR - W
@NYJ - W
@CAR - W

That's 14-3 without too many coin flips on games, easy to see 15-2 or 16-1.

staygold wrote:

Counterpoint:
Record after the bye week: 4-0

3 of those games were against Atlanta (twice!) and Detroit. The other game was a 7-9 Vikings team.

Who in that division is giving them trouble?

Oh, absolutely no one. That's why I said 10-7 and the division title is probably their hard floor. I can't really see them going any lower than that short of a Brady disaster. And honestly I wouldn't be shocked if they could go 10-7 with Gabbert against that schedule.

I'm not contesting that they're almost guaranteed to be a playoff team. I'm questioning how good they actually are, not just what their record is going to be against what looks like it may be a cupcake schedule. The current league groupthink is that they're an absolute elite team. Are they?

Well, last year was obviously weird in all sorts of ways. No OTAs, limited practices, COVID protocols up the wazoo. Getting comfortable with any offensive changes is clearly a difficult thing to do, and, last year, it was harder than usual. So, sure, there's a question there in that Tampa clearly wasn't as good in the early season and peaked at the right time, but how much of that improvement was due to the offense actually having to do mid-season the sorts of getting to know each other that normally happens in preseason.

Not that this isn't solid trolling; Legion's not a WINZ guy, and FO had the Bucs #2 in DVOA last year, and they actually pretty notably underperformed the Estimated Wins, which was 12.8 on their 11-win season. They were a legitimately solid team across the board, and I think it's far likelier the early-season struggles were tied to not having an opportunity for all the new pieces on offense to learn to play together.

I mean, positionally speaking:

QB: Old Brady is still Brady until he's not, which should have happened like five years ago.
WR/TE/RB: Mike Evans is very much a #1 on almost any team, and Antonio Brown in his younger days was very much a #1 on almost any team. Chris Godwin is excellent, though I suspect he might be more of the great #2 vs. genuine #1 because we've never really seen him have to be The Guy. Outside of that, there's depth at WR, three legitimate TEs, and Jones/Fournette is a darn good tandem.
OL: Marpet and Wirfs are in the conversation for the handful of best at their position, and the rest of the line is pretty good.
DL: Clearly a huge strength; Barrett and Vea alone would be a solid line, but JPP and Suh (plus Tryon-Shoyinka) make this very deep.
LB: David and White are potentially the best duo on the league.
Secondary: This is the one unit that hasn't earned its reputation yet; certainly peaked at the right time, but there isn't a consistent history of solid performance in the CBs and safeties. Could they crack? Sure, but there's no reason to think they would based on past performance.

So, yeah, Tampa does look to be that good, at this point, and it seems likelier they'd repeat the late-season performance rather than the early from last year. Could easily turn around, but the hype seems by and large justified.

*Legion* wrote:
staygold wrote:

Counterpoint:
Record after the bye week: 4-0

3 of those games were against Atlanta (twice!) and Detroit. The other game was a 7-9 Vikings team.

Who in that division is giving them trouble?

Oh, absolutely no one. That's why I said 10-7 and the division title is probably their hard floor. I can't really see them going any lower than that short of a Brady disaster. And honestly I wouldn't be shocked if they could go 10-7 with Gabbert against that schedule.

I'm not contesting that they're almost guaranteed to be a playoff team. I'm questioning how good they actually are, not just what their record is going to be against what looks like it may be a cupcake schedule. The current league groupthink is that they're an absolute elite team. Are they?

Groupthink in sports really is all about the prior season. Most talking heads, and even analysts, aren't good at projections to the point they can come up with anything interesting to say. Take Football Outsiders for example. Their top six teams are TB-KC-GB-BAL-BUF-SEA. Zzzzzz. Projections are so hard when so much roster is churned from one season to the next. FO probably is more interesting than most places because their formulas are more complicated than, say, Fantasy Pros.

The bottom of the list is basically the same issue: HOU-NYJ-JAX-CAR-ATL-PHI. Otherwise known as the teams with 10 draft picks last season. (FO hates the Jets despite them moving on from Gase and BAD FACE. That alone has gotta bring em up a few more spots, right?)

I think the Chiefs are a lock for the Super Bowl every year that Mahomes isn't seriously injured, the defense is average or better, and injuries render certain parts ineffective (hint: OL).

Anyway, projections are fun, but they're also hella boring and usually unimaginative.

If you can find somewhere that has WTF and Las Vegas as locks for the Super Bowl then I'm interested, but you won't see that because projections are based pretty much on prior records. Hence, massive, boring groupthink.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

I mean, positionally speaking:

QB: Old Brady is still Brady until he's not, which should have happened like five years ago.
WR/TE/RB: Mike Evans is very much a #1 on almost any team, and Antonio Brown in his younger days was very much a #1 on almost any team. Chris Godwin is excellent, though I suspect he might be more of the great #2 vs. genuine #1 because we've never really seen him have to be The Guy. Outside of that, there's depth at WR, three legitimate TEs, and Jones/Fournette is a darn good tandem.
OL: Marpet and Wirfs are in the conversation for the handful of best at their position, and the rest of the line is pretty good.
DL: Clearly a huge strength; Barrett and Vea alone would be a solid line, but JPP and Suh (plus Tryon-Shoyinka) make this very deep.
LB: David and White are potentially the best duo on the league.
Secondary: This is the one unit that hasn't earned its reputation yet; certainly peaked at the right time, but there isn't a consistent history of solid performance in the CBs and safeties. Could they crack? Sure, but there's no reason to think they would based on past performance.

So, yeah, Tampa does look to be that good, at this point, and it seems likelier they'd repeat the late-season performance rather than the early from last year. Could easily turn around, but the hype seems by and large justified.

Yeah, I'm not sure what Legion is getting at other than trolling you. The Bucs have studs on every part of their team except the secondary and kicker (since they cut Aguayo, natch). And generally not one guy, but multiple guys.

The Bucs WR corp single-handedly makes them elite.

Don't overlook the Saints in the NFC South. I know I like to crap on a division rival, especially that one, but NO is always a tough out, especially at home. Worst case, Saints go 8-8 and give the Bucs fits (but I suspect they'll be better than 8-8 because the Saints, like the Bucs, play the Panthers twice this year.) If any QB in that division will be better by virtue of a new team, it's Jameis. Sean Payton is going to dust off the old playbook -- the one he used when Brees could throw it past the linebackers -- and Jameis will probably throw for 5K yards this season even though the Saints don't have any actual receivers.

Also, I don't know why everyone is so down on ATL. Arthur Smith + Matt Ryan (as much as it pains me to type this) might actually be pretty good. Again, two games against Carolina, and again, like everyone else in the NFC South, is paired up against the NFC East (3-4 wins right there) and the AFC East (well, the Jets). I don't know if they'll be good but I don't see them being terrible (though I'd prefer terrible).

Enix wrote:

Also, I don't know why everyone is so down on ATL. Arthur Smith + Matt Ryan (as much as it pains me to type this) might actually be pretty good. Again, two games against Carolina, and again, like everyone else in the NFC South, is paired up against the NFC East (3-4 wins right there) and the AFC East (well, the Jets). I don't know if they'll be good but I don't see them being terrible (though I'd prefer terrible).

No pass rush, again, again, again, etc.

The Saints had to gut their roster to get under the cap, and we all know who Jameis is. Even beyond that, who Jameis is the exact opposite of the kind of guy Sean Payton had all his success with, and who knows if he's going to be able to adjust his offense so heavily to a guy like Winston. Throw in their one good WR having dicked around with surgery to miss a fair part of the season, disruption in NO thanks to yet another hurricane to recover from, and all sorts of holes in the roster, well, sure, Winston could suddenly turn into an accurate, reliable passer, but, in the same regard, my wife could get me that goddamn magic pony I've been asking for for years. I mean, I just want it to literally poop sunshine; is that really so hard?

Atlanta lost its best player, their defense isn't good, and their offensive line is questionable. Carolina at least has CMC and a good defense, but Atlanta's a combo of hoping Kyle Pitts is as good as advertised, and Calvin Ridley can still consistently be a stud without Julio around.

Glad to know that there's a chance that Carolina won't be the worst team in the division.

As I obviously made clear, I'm not paying too much attention to other NFL teams at the moment.

* looks at the Saints depth chart *

Whoa, that WR group is bad. The first- and second-string wideouts had 84 catches last season. Combined.

Yeah, not only is Jameis Winston the anti-Drew Brees in all sorts of ways, instead of throwing to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Cameron Brate, and the rest of the Bucs' receiving corps, he's got . . . uh, Chris Hogan? I mean, I'm sure the professional lacrosse stint really helped his game. I mean, sure, Kamara's phenomenal, but Jameis Winston is legitimately a guy who regularly throws pick-sixes on dumpoffs to RBs because his accuracy's so bad when he gets all excited.

Wow, word on the street is Gus Edwards and Marcus Peters both tore ACLs in practice today. Kinda feel bad for the Ravens at this point.

They may want to burn their practice field.