NFL 2021: The offseason and draft thread

Teams don't need to get rid of their good starting QB to start finding the next guy.

You get rid of your Joe Montana once you discover your QB2 is Steve Young.

As much as I've killed the Packers for it, I think many teams ought to invest real capital in QB2, looking for the next guy. I think it was a mistake for the Packers simply because they were so firmly in their Super Bowl window and needed to address other needs, but in general, I think QB2 should be treated much more valuable than it currently is.

I know if we scroll back to the 2012 draft threads, I thought it was a great idea that Washington spent the draft pick on Cousins right after spending the capital they did on RG3. I couldn't wrap my head around the media criticism of the idea. Obviously a few years later, the strategy proved its worth.

In fact, I think Shanahan and the Niners should strongly consider following papa Shanahan's example and do the exact same thing this year. Draft Fields, Lance, or (sigh) Jones, then if someone like Kyle Trask is on the board in late round 3, make a move and grab him too. Have Jimmy and the two rookies on the roster, with Rosen on the practice squad, then elevate Rosen whenever Jimmy gets moved.

jowner wrote:

Ok Cousins isn't the worst.

I guess Wentz was.

Haha. No, it's Darnold.

For 2020:

* 33rd in completion %

* 32nd in yards per pass attempt

* 34th in adjusted yards per pass attempt

* 29th in yards per completion

* 35th in QB rating (the NFL stat)

* 33rd in QBR (the ESPN stat)

Remember that there are only 32 teams, which means he's worse than every other starting QB and some of the backups.

Also remember that the Panthers did so well with Teddy B that it's obvious that they can fix whatever's wrong with Darnold, which apparently (looks at list above) is everything.

He did say cap hit to performance though.

Darnold was trash but at $8.3m, he cost less than half of Wentz's $18.7m 2020 cap figure.

Enix wrote:

* 29th in yards per completion

Remember that there are only 32 teams, which means he's worse than every other starting QB and some of the backups.

See, Enix? There's hope after all!

I have no idea what Carolina is doing here. The Occam's Razor approach is to assume that Rhule/Brady think they can fix Darnold and that they'll use the No. 8 pick on a LT. I think that this is Carolina's Plan D (after Stafford, Watson and trading up didn't work), but because they wrecked Bridgewater last season they had to do something.

The Panthers have Darnold cheap for two years -- ~$5M in 2021 and $19M in 2022. Maybe they'll figure it out. Or maybe they'll be picking in the top 10 after the 21 and 22 seasons.

Oh, and congrats to Taysom Hill for being no worse than the third-best QB in the NFC South.

*Legion* wrote:

The Vikings were 7-9 because Mike Zimmer's defense has continued to turn into crap.
...

(Granted, that won't stop Mike Zimmer from wanting the team to lead the league in rush attempts every year.)

You had it! Defense is fragile and variable (although Brandon Staley’s approach to defense might actually end up being revolutionary in turning the tide of offense against itself).

Won’t beat the dead horse but the Vikings ran way too much on early down (2nd highest percentage in the league last year with 46% of plays in 2nd and 10 or more being runs, 1st was the Broncos at 47%). You have two upper tier wideouts in Minnesota and instead feed the ball in suboptimal situations early in downs and early in games. Granted, there’s also now a mounting pile of evidence that the offensive weak link is actually the strength of your third pass catching option: see the latest SuperBowl, so Minnesota may actually just be one good pass catcher and an offensive philosophy shift away from the NFC North

*Legion* wrote:

I know if we scroll back to the 2012 draft threads

I did this.

Why did I do this? I mean, sure, I've got some work to get done and am procrastinating a bit, but I looked back on the 2012 Draft thread. I feel dirty. On page 3:

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

I've gotten a good vibe from Greg Schiano so far; he seems like a stable, hardworking guy who is at least going to avoid the usual flashy-college-coach-flames-out thing. I'm really curious to see how he handles this.

OH GOD THE PAIN.

Other highlights:

*Legion* wrote:

3rd round pick on a punter? Why, Gene?

I mean, he can boot it like nuts, but really?

Also, to your credit:

*Legion* wrote:

I want to go ahead and say that every media person making a big deal about the Redskins drafting Kirk Cousins is a complete idiot.

A roster is 53 players. You don't stop trying to develop good players at certain positions just because you spend a high draft pick on someone else at the same position.

The Redskins needed to get better at QB2. They took a player that they think can develop and be a good QB for them. That's it.

ESPN, STFU, you look like morons, trying to manufacture another pointless non-story. Florio, stop coming up with "theories" about why the Redskins drafted Cousins unless the theory is: they wanted to improve their roster at QB.

Damn, I was more forceful than I remembered. That's an old draft post I'm happy to stand by.

I'm starting to get a better idea where "YOU LIKE THAT" came from.

The only thing wrong about taking Cousins then is that they didn't have picks in rounds 2 and 3. It would've been 100% a non-story otherwise.

Such a fun time! Memories!

It was an entertaining read of the old draft thread, and reminded me of how badly the 2012 draft sucked balls. Just pretty awful up and down.

2014 was quite the offseason with Michael Sam, Richie Incognito and Ray Rice. Wow.

But the best part, other than Manziel, was this:

^Legion^ wrote:

Blake Bortles
* Plenty of throwing power
* Not a total statue, can move around a little bit
* Decisiveness seems to be an issue, a lot of hopping in the pocket
* Throws aren't as good as his physical talent would suggest he's capable of
* You can see a better player stuck in there, trying to get out
* Probably should have stayed for senior year, he might just be a year away from putting it together
* Pro comparison: Jake Locker. Not as fleet-footed, but the same kind of "has all these physical tools, why aren't his throws better?" issues.

LeapingGnome wrote:

Jaguars LOL. Are you done with them Legion?

IMAGE(https://thumbs.gfycat.com/ExaltedVainBillygoat-size_restricted.gif)

So Panther Fan is trying desperately into spinning the Darnold trade is a win. He was good in college! He's young! He'll get better! Joe Brady! CMC! DJ Moore and Robby Anderson! Lots of denial and bargaining here; acceptance won't come till about early October or so.

Meanwhile, an NFL writer for USA Today wrote this Monday right after the trade was announced: I am a Panthers fan and the Sam Darnold trade broke me

Today he's back with this: Why Panthers fans shouldn't be optimistic that Sam Darnold's problems are fixable

My favorite section is this:

Flacco wasn’t just more aggressive. He was better, which really throws a wrench into the whole “Gase ruined Darnold” argument. The former Super Bowl MVP outperformed his younger counterpart in every conceivable measure, including PFF grade, EPA and QBR. Even if you throw away the first half of Darnold’s 2020 campaign, when the Jets’ supporting cast was banged up, that remains true. Flacco’s superior performance kills any argument claiming that Darnold’s league-worst production was the direct result of a poor support system. We can ask “how many quarterbacks would succeed in such a situation?” but we can just as easily ask “how many quarterbacks would have performed better?” We have at least one answer to that question: A 35-year-old Joe Flacco.

Also: Darnold is apparently pretty good at throwing swings, screens and underneath passes. Anything else, hoo boy.

Christian McCaffrey gonna eat!

I think the Sam Darnold trade is a really good litmus test for the Panthers. They say they have a Playoff caliber team but just need a quarterback. Teddy B is a solid 7-9, 8-8 quarterback. Darnold will either succeed wildly to 10-7, 11-6 and playoffs, thus taking them out of position to draft a QB or he'll be SO BAD it locks up a top-5 pick in 2021.

They're tanking for their future QB? I can see that.

Side point: Flacco also had Mims on the field.

Oh, that first article:

There is nothing to be excited about in the present. There is nothing to look forward to. There is no reason for hope. If the Bears’ Andy Dalton “QB1” tweet were an NFL franchise, it’d be the Panthers.

OUCH.

You can see a better player stuck in there, trying to get out
"has all these physical tools, why aren't his throws better?"

I'd say my Bortles assessment pretty much nailed it.

Enix wrote:

Also: Darnold is apparently pretty good at throwing swings, screens and underneath passes.

Hey, you got Mac Jones after all!

Enix wrote:

DJ Moore

Thanks for reminding me that two of the better receivers on my dynasty team are now being thrown to by Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold.

Watson's up to 22 lawsuits.

Two of the victims have revealed their names, one of whom spoke publicly yesterday.

Following that, the endorsements have started fleeing. Nike and Beats headphones are both dropping Watson.

Houston PD announced they are investigating the claims. Buzbee stated he's not involved in the criminal complaint, in keeping with his previous grandstanding refusal to provide information to HPD.

No word yet on the league making any moves to put Watson on the exempt list. Florio at PFF is banging that drum.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Other highlights:

*Legion* wrote:

3rd round pick on a punter? Why, Gene?

I mean, he can boot it like nuts, but really?

On this topic, Bryan Anger just signed with the Cowboys.

He has the 5th best active (and 9th best all-time) career yards per punt average. He can, in fact, boot it.

Also, he went to Cal.

staygold wrote:

I think the Sam Darnold trade is a really good litmus test for the Panthers. They say they have a Playoff caliber team but just need a quarterback. Teddy B is a solid 7-9, 8-8 quarterback. Darnold will either succeed wildly to 10-7, 11-6 and playoffs, thus taking them out of position to draft a QB or he'll be SO BAD it locks up a top-5 pick in 2021.

Just two seasons ago, post injury, Teddy went 5-0 as a starter in New Orleans. Seattle was the only playoff team he beat, but the other 4 all had 6-8 wins on the season. Worst win was the Jags, but there were 10 teams worse than them that year.

This is a tiktok video my wife sent me.

(trigger warning - Brady and Buccaneers content) @MMD

LINK

*Legion* wrote:
MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Other highlights:

*Legion* wrote:

3rd round pick on a punter? Why, Gene?

I mean, he can boot it like nuts, but really?

On this topic, Bryan Anger just signed with the Cowboys.

He has the 5th best active (and 9th best all-time) career yards per punt average. He can, in fact, boot it.

Also, he went to Cal.

You should totally draft punters; the usual drafted, means probably better career" thing seems to exist for punters, and it's perfectly acceptable to draft one. Sure, round 3 was a bit high, but Anger's a pretty solid example of why drafting a punter is a solid idea.

karmajay wrote:

This is a tiktok video my wife sent me.

(trigger warning - Brady and Buccaneers content) @MMD

LINK

He's so rich he has Disneyworld all to himself?

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

You should totally draft punters; the usual drafted, means probably better career" thing seems to exist for punters, and it's perfectly acceptable to draft one. Sure, round 3 was a bit high, but Anger's a pretty solid example of why drafting a punter is a solid idea.

I feel like your dissertation on punter/kicker drafted vs. undrafted performance belongs on a site like Football Outsiders.

garion333 wrote:
karmajay wrote:

This is a tiktok video my wife sent me.

(trigger warning - Brady and Buccaneers content) @MMD

LINK

He's so rich he has Disneyworld all to himself?

Gisele is, at least.

Panthers must have long been in talks about trading Teddy so that may be why they shipped so much for Sam Thursday.

Still, it's weird for the Jets to do well in free agency and win someone over in a trade.