The Great Video Game Business and Financial (In)Stability Thread

Saying no to people who want to pay $60 instead of $15 sounds weird to me. Sure, it is worth something to get people into their platform. But they could easily throw in a months Gamepass with their direct game sales to get that effect.

Shadout wrote:

Saying no to people who want to pay $60 instead of $15 sounds weird to me. Sure, it is worth something to get people into their platform. But they could easily throw in a months Gamepass with their direct game sales to get that effect.

Saying no to people who want to pay $60 on someone else's platform seems weird to me, but here we are.

Jonman wrote:

Saying no to people who want to pay $60 on someone else's platform seems weird to me, but here we are.

Because if you don't have exclusive games then you won't have a platform and having a platform is a huge boost to long-term profits. Sure, if Nintendo released Breath of the Wild 2 on the PS5, Xbox, and PC (with glorious 144hz, 4K settings) that individual game would make much more money, but they'd lose on out the advantages of having their own system. The same is true for Microsoft; having big (console) exclusive games is worth selling a few million fewer copies for their first and second party games if it sells more Xboxs and keeps their brand relevant.

Shadout wrote:

Saying no to people who want to pay $60 instead of $15 sounds weird to me. Sure, it is worth something to get people into their platform. But they could easily throw in a months Gamepass with their direct game sales to get that effect.

You could technically leverage this argument at a service like Netflix. Why say no to people willing to spend $30 on a Blu-Ray instead of $14 on a montly subscription? Or $60 for a season of a show on Blu-Ray? I can think of plenty of reasons why a Blu-Ray purchase would be better – and for very select titles, Netflix does offer physical sales (they recently released Stranger Things season one on Blu-Ray back in... 2019?), but overall Netflix makes a heck of a lot more money providing a variety of content in order to ensure all demographics are subscribed to their service, as opposed to hoping those individuals are all on board with purchasing your game that month.

They're still getting those $60 purchases from people that don't get Game Pass, which I know friends that game on PC and lack it because they've been burned enough by Microsoft's past gaming efforts and launchers. They instead buy the games on Steam. But basically, you can get far more people to spend $15/month than guarantee your $60 game makes its budget back.

Given Microsoft’s ambitions to open up GamePass/XCloud to just about anything with an internet connection and a modern browser I can 100% assume everything from Bethesda will be 100% exclusive to Xbox and PC for owning/Game Pass and 100% exclusive to everyone else via Streaming with xCloud.

That’s a win win for MS. Potential to sell GP subs to PlayStation users.

It's worth pointing out that Microsoft has wholly owned literally the best-selling game ever (Minecraft, 200+ million copies and counting) for the last seven years and has made no part of it exclusive to Xbox. While I'm certain that one or more of the studios that Microsoft acquired with ZeniMax will make an Xbox exclusive at some point, Microsoft has a clear history of putting their games on other platforms with robust support. Back when the acquisition of ZeniMax was first announced, Phil Spector had said that their direction to Bethesda was that their games be "first, best, or better" on Xbox and the Windows Store. I see no reason to believe that wouldn't be the case with known monster hits like Elder Scrolls VI.

ccesarano wrote:

They're still getting those $60 purchases from people that don't get Game Pass, which I know friends that game on PC and lack it because they've been burned enough by Microsoft's past gaming efforts and launchers. They instead buy the games on Steam. But basically, you can get far more people to spend $15/month than guarantee your $60 game makes its budget back.

Sure, but as I said, it seems like Both > One of these. And Microsoft is doing exactly that so far, so it seems like they believe it too? At least for now.

ClockworkHouse wrote:

Phil Spector had said that their direction to Bethesda was that their games be "first, best, or better" on Xbox and the Windows Store.

If only more companies thought that way. Hopefully with MS actually being one of them. Offer a great service, and/or great value, and people might show up.

Jonman wrote:
EvilDead wrote:

I'm not aware of any Gamepass games that you can't buy. Or are you suggesting that might be a route they take in the future?

Imagine a three-month timed exclusive to Game Pass for the next Elder Scrolls.

If the point of exclusives is to drive platform adoption, and Game Pass is MS's platform......

Xbox is still one of their platforms. That hasn't suddenly stopped. Folks still want consoles and they still want to sell them.

I get that Gamepass is where things are heading, but that's a longterm project and we aren't there yet.

Putting ES6 as a Gamepass exclusive would work to drive sub numbers, but I feel like the bad PR is something they would want to avoid as currently they're playing the good guy angle. Maybe later on they'll leverage Gamepass that way, but my guess is they will keep options open. If they do sell ES6 as a Gamepass exclusive then it's because they're killing off selling their games individually and going whole hog Gamepass for Microsoft titles. Perhaps in the five or so years until ES6 we'll see that, sure, but certainly not for Starfield. Too soon.

ClockworkHouse wrote:

It's worth pointing out that Microsoft has wholly owned literally the best-selling game ever (Minecraft, 200+ million copies and counting) for the last seven years and has made no part of it exclusive to Xbox. While I'm certain that one or more of the studios that Microsoft acquired with ZeniMax will make an Xbox exclusive at some point, Microsoft has a clear history of putting their games on other platforms with robust support. Back when the acquisition of ZeniMax was first announced, Phil Spector had said that their direction to Bethesda was that their games be "first, best, or better" on Xbox and the Windows Store. I see no reason to believe that wouldn't be the case with known monster hits like Elder Scrolls VI.

And this "golden goose" argument is where I see the divide - the Minecrafts and Elder Scrolls of the world get released on everything - that's too much money to leave on the table. Meanwhile, the more niche products get exclusivity to drive the alpha-gamer crowd to platforms, as well as legacy exclusives (e.g. Gran Turismo or Forza, which are only exclusives because they've always been exclusives).

Prediction: Microsoft will continue to sell first party games, including upcoming Bethesda games, on Steam.

And, of course, the reason that they will sell their games on Steam is because of Microsoft's long standing institutional concerns about being targeted for anti-trust enforcement.

polq37 wrote:

Prediction: Microsoft will continue to sell first party games, including upcoming Bethesda games, on Steam.

And, of course, the reason that they will sell their games on Steam is because of Microsoft's long standing institutional concerns about being targeted for anti-trust enforcement.

That did not stop them from installing their new Edge Chromium browser on every Windows 10 computer, despite the fact that doing something like this with IE back in the day got them in hot water for a while.

bobbywatson wrote:
polq37 wrote:

Prediction: Microsoft will continue to sell first party games, including upcoming Bethesda games, on Steam.

And, of course, the reason that they will sell their games on Steam is because of Microsoft's long standing institutional concerns about being targeted for anti-trust enforcement.

That did not stop them from installing their new Edge Chromium browser on every Windows 10 computer, despite the fact that doing something like this with IE back in the day got them in hot water for a while.

What's the adoption rate on Edge Chromium? Less than 1%? Then it's okay.

ccesarano wrote:

Oddly enough, I find that the longer the period of hype, the less hyped I become. It's more like the expectation or hype for the game becomes habit or ritual, and thus my spirit is in it less. Discovering a game the month of its release, or just shortly before, has always worked best for me, in part because there's no real time to develop expectations.

I think expectations is the greatest thing going against an early announcement. Most people seem to increase their expectations the longer they've waited, and this often results in extreme response to the game's quality either way.

I think this is core truth, that expectations are everything, and the earlier you announce your game, the less happy people will be with it, because they'll have had more and more time to imagine something better than what you can build. Example: Cyberpunk 2077.

I contrast that with my purchase of Dishonored, which I hadn't heard of until about three days before it shipped. Saw the walking guard frames and was instantly in, just based on their design alone. When I started it a few days later, I had an absolutely phenomenal time, because I was just playing the game they'd shipped instead of something I'd had time to imagine. That was the most fun I'd had with a game in years.

If they never preannounced anything, just shipped it, I'd probably enjoy games more.

edit with another example: Return of the Obra Dinn. Went in knowing effectively zero, and was absolutely entranced. I was hooked so hard by that game. That's why I always describe it in vague terms, that it's a thinking game, not an action one, and leave it at that. I'm hoping to allow others to feel that same sense of wonder.... but even my comments here may raise expectations high enough that people won't like it as well.

garion333 wrote:
bobbywatson wrote:
polq37 wrote:

Prediction: Microsoft will continue to sell first party games, including upcoming Bethesda games, on Steam.

And, of course, the reason that they will sell their games on Steam is because of Microsoft's long standing institutional concerns about being targeted for anti-trust enforcement.

That did not stop them from installing their new Edge Chromium browser on every Windows 10 computer, despite the fact that doing something like this with IE back in the day got them in hot water for a while.

What's the adoption rate on Edge Chromium? Less than 1%? Then it's okay.

They're well above Firefox, and mostly taking marketshare from them. Mozilla's in trouble.

Malor wrote:
garion333 wrote:
bobbywatson wrote:
polq37 wrote:

Prediction: Microsoft will continue to sell first party games, including upcoming Bethesda games, on Steam.

And, of course, the reason that they will sell their games on Steam is because of Microsoft's long standing institutional concerns about being targeted for anti-trust enforcement.

That did not stop them from installing their new Edge Chromium browser on every Windows 10 computer, despite the fact that doing something like this with IE back in the day got them in hot water for a while.

What's the adoption rate on Edge Chromium? Less than 1%? Then it's okay.

They're well above Firefox, and mostly taking marketshare from them. Mozilla's in trouble.

Well, that explains why they did it.

Here comes the government!...... Eventually.

Thoughts on the upcoming MS/Bethesda press conference?

As a consumer, I'd like them to just dump the whole Bethesda back catalog on Gamepass. From a business strategy perspective, it would probably make sense for them to space out releases over the coming months. I'd also really like to see a drumbeat of technical enhancements to Bethesda's existing games. A steady and recurring series of upgrades (Higher res, higher framerates, hdr, better textures, enhanced lighting and post processing) would probably go a long way to keeping the community interested in the back catalog.

I'm still annoyed that we haven't heard anything about next gen enhancements for the Just Cause 4 / Rage 2 engine.

They'll probably release The Evil Within on Gamepass today.

It sounds like the event today isn't going to be focused on new announcements, but rather people-focused. Sounds to me like any Gamepass news, etc., will happen separate from the streamed event.

Well, they just announced 20 Bethesda titles will drop on Game Pass tomorrow.

garion333 wrote:

Well, they just announced 20 Bethesda titles will drop on Game Pass tomorrow.

I assume this is so fresh there isn't a news story that lists them yet?

That's what I get for idly speculating

Most of them are coming to both Console and PC, except for ESO and Fallout: New Vegas which are console only.

Wonder why New Vegas got left out?

Curious that Doom 2016 isn't on the list. Or, was it already on Gamepass? Evil Within 2 is also not on the list.

Also, barring contractual obligations, future Bethesda games will be published on platforms where Gamepass exists.

This seems like very carefully ambiguous language to me.

Will they still be publishing on Steam because Gamepass exists on the PC platform?

Just went and looked. On PC at least, the only Doom currently on there is Doom Eternal. No sign of Evil Within.

polq37 wrote:

Curious that Doom 2016 isn't on the list. Or, was it already on Gamepass?

It was, I suspect it will be coming back.

Also, regarding exclusives:
IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/zjV4gQc.jpg)

So PlayStation owners may very well not get future Bethesda titles.

It is like they are trying to ease people into what their goal was. Early on it sounds like they are open to not making games exclusive, then some might be, and this one basically says that absolutely everything they are not contractually required to release on other platforms will be "exclusive".

tanstaafl wrote:

Most of them are coming to both Console and PC, except for ESO and Fallout: New Vegas which are console only.

Wonder why New Vegas got left out?

ESO is also on PC. I misread. Sorry about that!

tanstaafl wrote:

Just went and looked. On PC at least, the only Doom currently on there is Doom Eternal. No sign of Evil Within.

They're not supposed to launch until tomorrow. Try again around midnight Eastern.

trueheart78 wrote:

So PlayStation owners may very well not get future Bethesda titles.

There exist people with both

I get to finally try Prey, I guess. Now that I look at the whole catalog I don’t like as many Bethesda games as I thought.