The Great Video Game Business and Financial (In)Stability Thread

Sony Interactive Entertainment Japan Studio downsizing. Looks like all those departures were canaries in the coal mine of the inevitable.

I salute you, Sony. Good luck joining the EA's, Ubisoft's, and Activisions of the world.

I'm saddened by that news, but not too surprised. Outside of a few notable third-party exceptions like Final Fantasy and Resident Evil, it's a barren wasteland for Japanese games on the PS5. I was hoping Sony would rebuild Japan Studio and bring a larger variety of games to the PS5, but it looks like they're choosing instead to double down on their Western AAA games and cede the Japanese market to Nintendo. I can't even say it's a bad business call, but it is disappointing.

I have been meaning to replay Ape Escape. I should do that soon.

The Switch being the Vita 2.0 has mostly removed any interest I had in getting a PS5 because I'm perfectly happy playing my weird Japanese games in handheld.

Yeah, I'm with you there. I'm happy with my Switch, but it's still sad to think about what could have been. Just last year the Ape Escape twitter account was teasing a new game for a while before the account suddenly went dead.

Jonman wrote:

Has anyone seen any reportage on how developers/publishers feel about Game Pass? Enthusiastic, good-for-business? A weaksauce way to monetize your game? Good for the long tail, but poison for the new release sales burst?

Eurogamer had a good article on Gamepass a while ago. I believe they go into the developers side of things as well.

I've never understood why people get upset when a game is announced early and delayed/cancelled. Personally, I love it. The earlier the better. I want to know what's in the pipeline for 2025 or even 2030. And if the game gets cancelled, meh, it happens. I lost something that never existed. No skin off my back.

Oddly enough, I find that the longer the period of hype, the less hyped I become. It's more like the expectation or hype for the game becomes habit or ritual, and thus my spirit is in it less. Discovering a game the month of its release, or just shortly before, has always worked best for me, in part because there's no real time to develop expectations.

I think expectations is the greatest thing going against an early announcement. Most people seem to increase their expectations the longer they've waited, and this often results in extreme response to the game's quality either way.

I imagine one of the biggest reasons games are announced early is for shareholders, so that the investors can feel comfortable knowing what they're investing in and seeing the public response to trailers and demonstrations.

Admittedly, I didn't watch the video, and therefore don't know what Alannah's perspective on the matter was.

Djinn wrote:

I've never understood why people get upset when a game is announced early and delayed/cancelled. Personally, I love it. The earlier the better. I want to know what's in the pipeline for 2025 or even 2030. And if the game gets cancelled, meh, it happens. I lost something that never existed. No skin off my back.

You get the general idea of why even if you don't share it, right? Anticipation is a thing that people feel and expectations are a thing people have.

Bethesda is now officially a part of Xbox.

And the expected shoe has dropped:

Bethesda games will eventually be exclusive to PC and Xbox. They don't say when or what games, but I expect this means Elder Scrolls VI will be Xbox exclusive and that's a huge get. Very far off, but a huge get and probably one of the main reasons this all went down.

garion333 wrote:

Bethesda is now officially a part of Xbox.

And the expected shoe has dropped:

Bethesda games will eventually be exclusive to PC and Xbox. They don't say when or what games, but I expect this means Elder Scrolls VI will be Xbox exclusive and that's a huge get. Very far off, but a huge get and probably one of the main reasons this all went down.

I'll eat my hat if Elder Scrolls doesn't turn up on Playstation. Timed exclusive on Xbox? Sure, I'll buy that. But it's too big a property, with too long a tail, to leave those dollars on the table. I mean, Todd Howard's entire internet presence is memes about selling you the nineteenth copy of Skyrim, this time for your smart fridge.

Honestly, with the list of dev studios under the Bethesda umbrella, I absolutely see plenty of exclusive possibilities in there, but I doubt very much you're going to see that as the default approach.

  • Bethesda Game Studios (Elder Scrolls, Fallout, Starfield)
  • id Software (Doom, Wolfenstein)
  • ZeniMax Online Studios (MMORPG versions of Bethesda IP - ESO, Fallout 76)
  • Arkane (Dishonored, Prey, Wolfenstein, Deathloop)
  • MachineGames (Wolfenstein)
  • Tango Gameworks (The Evil Within, Tokyo Ghostwire)
  • Alpha Dog (Wraithborne, MonstroCity: Rampage - i.e. mobile)
  • Roundhouse Studios (reconstituted out of the ashes of Human Head Studios, developers of a lot of forgettable games - remember Brink? Defiance? Dungeon Defenders 2? The Quiet Man? Yeah. me neither)

Interesting wrinkle here - Deathloop is PS5 and PC timed exclusive. Obviously this deal would have been inked long before the acquisition by Microsoft, but it might be a valuable data point for MS's further thinking on exclusivity going forward.

I believe they mean actually exclusive. Bethesda has a long history of having major difficulties with the Playstation versions of their games so it wouldn't surprise me at all that they decided to stop making them all together.

How would Bethesda's games being exclusive to XBox and PC be any different than Naughty Dog's game being exclusive to Playstation (and maybe PCs in the future)?

Personally, I think it will be case-by-case basis. So I can see something like Elder Scrolls being open on everything but Starfield is not.

Jonman wrote:

Interesting wrinkle here - Deathloop is PS5 and PC timed exclusive. Obviously this deal would have been inked long before the acquisition by Microsoft, but it might be a valuable data point for MS's further thinking on exclusivity going forward.

They've already been through that with other games. Wasteland 3 and The Outer Worlds went through the exact same situation. So while it might at a bit of data, it's not a unique situation.

I hope Microsoft makes Obsidian and Bethesda kiss and make up so Obsidian can get to work on Fallout 5.

Vector wrote:

How would Bethesda's games being exclusive to XBox and PC be any different than Naughty Dog's game being exclusive to Playstation (and maybe PCs in the future)?

Approximately by a factor of 2, when expressed in terms of sales.

As of 2016, Skyrim had sold over 30 million copies (and you can add another 5 years of long tail, as well as the VR and Switch releases to that number)
As of 2019, Uncharted 4 had sold 16 million copies, and Last of Us 20 million.

Stengah wrote:

I believe they mean actually exclusive. Bethesda has a long history of having major difficulties with the Playstation versions of their games so it wouldn't surprise me at all that they decided to stop making them all together.

I don't recall any major difficulties post-PS3, which was notoriously difficult to port to for lots of devs, not just Bethesda. But then, I haven't been paying close attention either, so maybe I've missed some?

Jonman wrote:
Vector wrote:

How would Bethesda's games being exclusive to XBox and PC be any different than Naughty Dog's game being exclusive to Playstation (and maybe PCs in the future)?

Approximately by a factor of 2, when expressed in terms of sales.

As of 2016, Skyrim had sold over 30 million copies (and you can add another 5 years of long tail, as well as the VR and Switch releases to that number)
As of 2019, Uncharted 4 had sold 16 million copies, and Last of Us 20 million.

How many XBoxes would be sold if ES is exclusive? A lot, I imagine.

Skyrim was also on PC, which Uncharted and Last of Us are not, so not exactly a complete comparison.

garion333 wrote:
Jonman wrote:
Vector wrote:

How would Bethesda's games being exclusive to XBox and PC be any different than Naughty Dog's game being exclusive to Playstation (and maybe PCs in the future)?

Approximately by a factor of 2, when expressed in terms of sales.

As of 2016, Skyrim had sold over 30 million copies (and you can add another 5 years of long tail, as well as the VR and Switch releases to that number)
As of 2019, Uncharted 4 had sold 16 million copies, and Last of Us 20 million.

How many XBoxes would be sold if ES is exclusive? A lot, I imagine.

Skyrim was also on PC, which Uncharted and Last of Us are not, so not exactly a complete comparison.

MS's platform isn't Xbox, it's Game Pass. Your question should read: how many Game Pass subscriptions will be sold if ES is exclusive. And I think that's a smaller answer than your original question. The business model is different - you're not convincing the customer to make one big purchase with an exclusivity promise, you're convincing them to make a monthly purchase, every month, and in that regard, it's less about the one big game you have to play, and more about the strength of the catalog as a whole, and maintaining a constant rotation of bigger and smaller games. It's about balance, more than power, and you need big evergreen titles to sit as a foundation for that balance. Your Forzas, your Halos and your Elder Scrolls are just the ticket.

You're right that I wasn't making a fair comparison with Naughty Dog, but that's kind of my point. The multi-platform game sold loads more. 10 million+ sales is a hell of an argument against exclusivity.

I'm sure Playstation would also have their sales balloon if they released their exclusive games on other platforms. They are just started to explore PC last year. Whatever the value is for keeping some games only on their console, it's seemingly substantial. Like I said, I'm not convinced Elder Scrolls won't be multiplatform but I wouldn't be surprised if that's what they do.

If Sony had dropped $7,500,000,000 on Bethesda we would expect nothing less than pure exclusivity. Sure, there might still be uproar, but honestly, what did people expect Microsoft to do when the last gen was sparse in exclusives and everyone was wanting them to give people a reason to buy into their ecosystem? (Let’s be real here, timed exclusives are still exclusives).

Now they’ve done that, and people on the internet aren’t happy.

Spencer has gone on record that they will honor the current exclusivity deals in regards to Deathloop on PlayStation. I would be very surprised if they removed any games from Sony’s platform. If anything, Game Pass just got stronger by an incoming Bethesda games influx, plus all first party titles release day and date on it.

As for the future releases? Who the hell knows? If I could tell the future, I’d surely be somewhere else in life. Instead, I’m here,

To look at it from the other end, what’s the biggest reason people cite wanting a PlayStation? Exclusives. Naughty Dog. Guerrilla Games. Sony Santa Monica. Games like Spider-man: Miles Morales and Demon’s Souls were system sellers for the PS5.

PlayStation owners feel like this is stealing from their future self, and I get it, it sucks. If the shoe was on the other foot and Sony had made this purchase, the cries would be from the PC players, because you know they would lock that sh*t down.

Just look at how Konami became a trending topic when this deal was announced. PlayStation fans want something similar, or potentially some sort of retaliation. They feel like they’ve had something taken away. Those are valid feelings.

I want Konami to get off its ass and make a good Suikoden game. Don't care for what platform!

PaladinTom wrote:

I hope Microsoft makes Obsidian and Bethesda kiss and make up so Obsidian can get to work on Fallout 5.

Oh man, if this was all some ploy by someone at Microsoft to get Fallout out of Bethesda's hands I'd laugh.

LET JOSH SAWYER MAKE VAN BUREN!

Worth every dollar if it leads to Fallout by Obsidian.
(actually, no , Obsidian should not be allowed to make anything else than Pillars of Eternity 3)

trueheart78 wrote:

PlayStation owners feel like this is stealing from their future self, and I get it, it sucks. If the shoe was on the other foot and Sony had made this purchase, the cries would be from the PC players, because you know they would lock that sh*t down.

It is definitely better if Microsoft buys exclusivity than if Sony does, since MS at least supports two platforms. Still better if neither of them did.

trueheart78 wrote:

(Let’s be real here, timed exclusives are still exclusives).

The difference between waiting a year vs. forever is significant. Heck, these days if you wait a year for the GOTY edition, you get a better and cheaper game anyway.

Only positive here, other than the upcoming New Vegas 2, is that future Bethesda games can be bought/borrowed for ~$15, which is some good value. That impressive value would also have been there if the games were not exclusive though.

Shadout wrote:

Worth every dollar if it leads to Fallout by Obsidian.
(actually, no , Obsidian should not be allowed to make anything else than Pillars of Eternity 3)

I'll be shocked if there's ever a Pillars of Eternity 3. PoE 2 did not sell well as has been considered a failure by Obsidian. Sawyer is definitely working on something but has given no indication what it is.

Shadout wrote:
trueheart78 wrote:

(Let’s be real here, timed exclusives are still exclusives).

The difference between waiting a year vs. forever is significant. Heck, these days if you wait a year for the GOTY edition, you get a better and cheaper game anyway.

I won’t deny that getting the game eventually is better for players than never. You have to take in account pre-orders and zeitgeist, though. I would not be surprised if a game release makes more in it’s first 30 days of exclusivity than in it’s first 6 months on another platform, a year or so later (GotY edition or not). I’m sure there are outliers, but when the internet is blowing up about a new game, and it’s actively being streamed in it’s exclusivity, you’re going to just get more purchases.

We haven't even considered the fact that we might be looking at Game Pass exclusives, instead of Xbox exclusives. If that's increasingly where MS sees it's bread being buttered, why wouldn't we see increasing carrots dangled?

I'm not aware of any Gamepass games that you can't buy. Or are you suggesting that might be a route they take in the future?

EvilDead wrote:

I'm not aware of any Gamepass games that you can't buy. Or are you suggesting that might be a route they take in the future?

Imagine a three-month timed exclusive to Game Pass for the next Elder Scrolls.

If the point of exclusives is to drive platform adoption, and Game Pass is MS's platform......

I wouldn't be surprised by anything but that would likely be to the detriment of a major source of income from their other customers. Many of which are likely paying more for their games every year.

Pay $15 per month or buy for $60 already seems like a good enough upsell for me.