NFL 2021: The offseason and draft thread

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Let's have a moment of silence for last night's bad Super Bowl -- exactly the Super Bowl that 2020 deserved -- and the failed 2020 seasons of everyone but the Bucs.

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OK! Now it's the offseason! Everyone is Oh-and-Oh. Everyone has hope! The Jags will have a new QB (who might be Trevor Lawrence, assuming the Jags remember to pick him)! Stafford is a Ram! The salary cap is going to suck!

Here's the official NFL draft site. The 2021 draft runs from April 29 to May 1. Jags are on the clock ...

Report: Packers plan to hire Joe Barry as defensive coordinator

Comments are riddled with how people feel.

Cause whenever you can hire the DC of the 0-16 Lions.... Yikes.

I have no strong opinions here. Yes it would be nice to have landed some up and coming all Star mind or a more steady veteran coach. I'm just fingers crossed for some average to above average level of consistency that leverages the talent already on the team.

Enix wrote:

The salary cap is going to suck!

Not quite as badly as expected, at least. The cap has been set to $180.5 million, where projections had been in the $170-175m range.

That means the Saints are now *only* $74.625m in the red.

*Legion* wrote:

That means the Saints are now *only* $74.625m in the red.

I cannot wait to see how the Saints roster turns out; that salary cap can has been kicked down the road a really long time. Maybe Jameis Winston takes a deal to, uh, prove himself.

One additional bit of amusement from the Bucs winning; Jameis Winston last year had an abysmal season, becoming the first 30/30 passer, and losing the last game of the year on the first play of overtime with a pick-six, and dooming his team over and over again with dumb decisions. The year after he leaves, his old team wins the Super Bowl. Sure, he was replaced by GOAT boy and the offensive roster bloomed with new incredibly-talented players and all, but, in my head, I like to think of that win as a giant middle finger to Winston.

Will the NFL delay the coaching carousel until the day after the Super Bowl? For starters, it'd make Christmas and New Year's less sh*tty if one still thinks there's a slightly miniscule chance that one will still have a job on Valentine's Day.

Marty Schottenheimer dies at 77.

Several men who would become successful NFL head coaches, including Bruce Arians, Bill Cowher, Tony Dungy, Mike McCarthy and Herm Edwards, coached under Schottenheimer.

That's quite a few rings (and a meme) in that group.

Schottenheimer always seemed like a really good guy and is the king of being screwed by bad luck. Every time it felt like he was going to win something big there was a fumble or pick or insane comeback by the other team, and it all went to hell.

Alzheimers is awful, absolutely awful. Alzheimers and cancer can both go f- themselves.

Rat Boy wrote:

Marty Schottenheimer dies at 77.

Several men who would become successful NFL head coaches, including Bruce Arians, Bill Cowher, Tony Dungy, Mike McCarthy and Herm Edwards, coached under Schottenheimer.

That's quite a few rings (and a meme) in that group.

Better coaching tree than Belichick. And he wasn't a cheater.

Top_Shelf wrote:
Rat Boy wrote:

Marty Schottenheimer dies at 77.

Several men who would become successful NFL head coaches, including Bruce Arians, Bill Cowher, Tony Dungy, Mike McCarthy and Herm Edwards, coached under Schottenheimer.

That's quite a few rings (and a meme) in that group.

Better coaching tree than Belichick. And he wasn't a cheater.

Brady / Belichick haunt your dreams don't they

I don't even know why that would come to mind. Belichick's coaching tree is pretty horrendous!

EvilDead wrote:
Top_Shelf wrote:
Rat Boy wrote:

Marty Schottenheimer dies at 77.

Several men who would become successful NFL head coaches, including Bruce Arians, Bill Cowher, Tony Dungy, Mike McCarthy and Herm Edwards, coached under Schottenheimer.

That's quite a few rings (and a meme) in that group.

Better coaching tree than Belichick. And he wasn't a cheater.

Brady / Belichick haunt your dreams don't they

I don't even know why that would come to mind. Belichick's coaching tree is pretty horrendous!

That's because it's all been Brady. We know that now.

Because people love hearing about Brady . . . I checked in on the Super Bowl celebration boat parade, and highlights included Brady throwing the Lombardi from his boat to another boat, and then him back on shore, so astoundingly drunk, somebody had to help him walk. So much for the TB12 diet today.

Very sad the Lombardi wasn't dropped overboard, because that would have been HILARIOUS.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Because people love hearing about Brady . . . I checked in on the Super Bowl celebration boat parade, and highlights included Brady throwing the Lombardi from his boat to another boat, and then him back on shore, so astoundingly drunk, somebody had to help him walk. So much for the TB12 diet today.

Very sad the Lombardi wasn't dropped overboard, because that would have been HILARIOUS.

I saw that video. Turns out that everyone on planet earth but Chiefs receivers can catch stuff. HEEEEEY-YO!

It's really a surprise none of those boats sank, considering what happened the last time there was a big boat parade in Florida.

Hah, I think that sums up the difference between paid boat drivers and crazy uncle Jimmy who sleeps on his boat.

So here's something I wanted to touch on in my OP but forgot so here it is: the QB carousel. Lots of smart football folks are predicting an unprecedented turnover in the QB ranks during the offseason. We've already had one big trade (the Lions/Rams Stafford/Goff deal), several vets want trades, some long-timers might retire (and one, Rivers, already did) and a few teams seem ready to move on from whoever they had under center in 2020.

So here's my list of teams that probably have their 2021 starter on their roster right now, which teams might not and which teams probably don't. Note the weasel words because there are so many unknowns right now. The Dolphins, for instance, probably will start Tua in 2021, but he wasn't great last season, and there's always a chance they find someone else. Or not. who knows? I put the Seahawks in the "might need" category, but I'd be stunned if they deal him. Maybe Mitchell Trubisky sticks with the Bears because who else is going to take him? And so on.

This will be a wild and wacky offseason and yet another example of how the NFL is America's first 12-month pro sports league.

TEAMS WHO PROBABLY HAVE QBS

Bengals (wounded husk of Joe Burrow)
Bills (Josh Allen)
Broncos (Drew Lock)
Browns (Baker Mayfield)
Bucs (Tom Brady till he's 50 or so)
Cardinals (Kyler Murray)
Chargers (Justin Herbert)
Chiefs (Sad Patrick Mahomes)
Dolphins (Tua Tagovailoa, I guess?)
Falcons (Matt Ryan)
Giants (Danny Dimes)
Lions (Jared Goff via trade)
Niners (Jimmy Garoppolo, I guess)
Packers (Aaron Rodgers, despite was said after the NFC title game)
Raiders (Derek Carr for now)
Rams (Matt Stafford via trade)
Ravens (Lamar Jackson)
Steelers (Ben Roethlisberger unless he retires)
Titans (Ryan Tannehill)
Vikings (Kirk Cousins, I guess)
Washington (Alex Smith unless he retires)

TEAMS WHO MIGHT NEED A QB
Cowboys (Zac Prescott, who's a FA)
Eagles (Carson Wentz might leave, and Jalen Hurts is kinda meh)
Jets (Sam Darnold might get traded)
Panthers (Teddy Bridgewater or TBA)
Saints (Brees might retire, Jameis Winston is a FA and Taysom Hill isn't a starting NFL QB)
Seahawks (Russell Wilson says he wants out)
Texans (Deshaun Watson wants out)

TEAMS WHO ALMOST CERTAINLY NEED A QB
Bears (Trubisky wants out and Foles is terrible)
Colts (Marmalard retired)
Jaguars (Uncle Rico was not their long-term QB solution as it turns out)
Patriots (Cam won't be back)

WHO'S AVAILABLE?

Draft
Trevor Lawrence (Clemson)
Justin Fields (Ohio State)
Zach Wilson (BYU)
Trey Lance (ND State)
Mac Jones ('Bama)

Free agents
Dak Prescott (Cowboys)
Mitchell Trubisky (Bears)
Jameis Winston (Saints)
Andy Dalton (Cowboys)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (Dolphins)
Jacoby Brissett (Colts)
Tyrod Taylor (Chargers)
Cam Newton (Patriots)
(via PFF and Pro Football Network)

Did Russell Wilson say he wanted out? Thought it was more the classic mid-career QB lament of, "Need more help."

Washington, SF and Minnesota aren't settled, imho.

Kirk Cousins is only going somewhere if he wants to. His contract is all about him.

San Fran has got to be willing to see past Jimmy G. He's in the Jared Goff tier nowadays.

Alex Smith is a stop gap, at best. 36 is still peak career, I guess, but there's simply no future at the position for the WTF Team atm.

I'm waiting on Dak to be tagged as a giant middle finger to him. Or they'll let him walk and get a high pick back as compensation. Could the the latter there, but then they'd have to be restrained in FA, which is unlikely.

Eagles almost certainly will roll with Hurts. That seemed to be deemed from on high.

Jets & Darnold...... Who wants either at this point? No one. I can see someone sending a late round pick for Darnold, but my gut says the Jets expect a 1st back for him cause they're the Jets and they're stupid.

WTF are the Patriots going to do? That's a good question. Sign someone off the junk heap again? Seems smart, if it works. Cam still goes from OK to bad Cam in a heartbeat.

I'm curious if anyone is publicly tracking minority HC candidates along with GM, coordinator positions, etc.? I guess I'm talking about the NFL since I can find some info on NCAA (more here). I'm wondering how many minorities are a few notches down, an assistant coach or line coach, who we don't know about. Kind of like the guy signed from the Ravens. Whoever that was. (Culley just signed Allen Smith, a PoC, from the college ranks to be a DL assistant.)

There's some overlap between college and NFL, but why isn't there more info from the NFL on this stuff? Because their focus is on providing lip service for minorities and that's it? Or because folks don't care enough, they're more interested in the players than coaches and lower level coaches? Or both.

Seems like a place the NFL could step up in a big way and provide a new avenue for interest in the league. Coaches come and go, maybe getting to know them a bit better would be beneficial to the league.

garion333 wrote:

Washington, SF and Minnesota aren't settled, imho. ...

No doubt. I suspect (just a guess!) that some teams (and those three teams in particular) will end up sticking reluctantly with the QB they have bc they don't have better options. But who knows? That's what makes this offseason so potentially weird.

@ Top_Shelf: Russell Wilson vented this week on the radio, and now apparently the team is mad at him. PFT has covered this pretty closely.

I suspect everyone will kiss and make up -- who the hell are the Seahawks going to get who's better than Wilson, right? -- but you never know. Matt Stafford got mad at the Lions, and the next thing you know he's living in LA.

Edit: Bad Lip Reading 2021!

garion333 wrote:

San Fran has got to be willing to see past Jimmy G. He's in the Jared Goff tier nowadays.

I don't think Goff is the comparison. The problem with Jimmy is that he can't stay on the field. I think the Niners would be less eager to explore QB options if they could count on Jimmy actually playing. They're 22-8 (regular season) when he starts, and if you take out the games played on a bum ankle this year, that win percentage only goes up. Jared Goff's win rate is not in the same ballpark.

The plan with Jimmy was to be patient as he built experience, but with the injuries, that's barely happened. He still has only 32 NFL starts. At this point, the only starting NFL QBs with less game experience are the guys that were rookies or 2nd year players last year. He's only got a few games on Daniel Jones. That's absurd.

I don't think there's reason to believe Jimmy is maxed out in ability after 32 starts just because they're spread out over numerous years. Rich Gannon comes to mind as someone who was even older before he finally got into his 50th, 60th start and developed into a top starter.

But can you count on Jimmy to not give you another lost season? A player with only 1 full starting season and 3 season-ending injuries (2 in SF, 1 in NE) to his resume? I can understand the 49ers not wanting to bet on that. You could excuse the first one, but two in 3 years changes the calculus.

The one thing in Jimmy's corner is that he's cheap now compared to the going QB rate. With no guaranteed money left on his deal, they can sanely restructure and bring his 2021 number way down, which would really help given the shrunken cap this season.

Eagles have a QB. I don’t believe they will draft one this off-season. If they can trade Wentz (lolz) then Hurts is the starter. If they can’t trade Wentz then Hurtz is the starter and Wentz mopes on the bench until the sh*tty oline gets Hurtz Hurt. Then Wentz will come in and be awful some more and then with the number one or two overall pick next offseason they will draft a QB.

TheGameguru wrote:

If they can trade Wentz (lolz)

Reportedly both the Bears and Colts have offers on the table. The story is that Chicago's offer is supposedly better, but the Eagles prefer to move Wentz to the AFC, but the Colts aren't willing to match Chicago.

*Legion* wrote:
TheGameguru wrote:

If they can trade Wentz (lolz)

Reportedly both the Bears and Colts have offers on the table. The story is that Chicago's offer is supposedly better, but the Eagles prefer to move Wentz to the AFC, but the Colts aren't willing to match Chicago.

I love the high level strategery of "don't trade within the conference" even at the cost of what you get back. Why wouldn't the Eagles want to play Wentz at most one time a year? Do these jokers think they will be in the playoffs against the Bears next year and have to go against Wentz? Why is that something to be avoided? It would seem like something you would want to make happen if you could.

Maybe there is some deeper 5D chess sh*t going on but I doubt it.

tboon wrote:

Do these jokers think they will be in the playoffs against the Bears next year and have to go against Wentz?

Well the thing about teams within your conference is that you're competing against them for wildcard spots and playoff seedings, even if you don't play head-to-head games against them.

That said, yeah, when you're dumping a QB primarily for poor performance, it seems like you should want them dragging down a same-conference team. If you trade a guy like Deshaun Watson, then I would much more strongly prefer an out-of-conference deal.

Top_Shelf wrote:

Did Russell Wilson say he wanted out? Thought it was more the classic mid-career QB lament of, "Need more help."

"Need more help not getting murdered or else I'm going to never make it late into my career"

Guy needs an offensive line.

Considering how good he is the Seahawks really need to keep him healthy before he catches 1 too many injuries and he rethinks the whole football thing.

It's sad because he is by far the best player this town has seen since 90's Griffey. And the overall commitment to smash mouth football is at odds with modern football trends and his skill set.

I really feel like football success is situational and Wilson is better off paired with a more progressive scheme.

He was also pretty bad for the second half of the season. Given the team philosophy, it was probably mostly scheme issues, but it's worth considering that it might have been him -- he's sneakily old thanks to his failed baseball career.

As I've said before, I think the lack of offensive line and the poor offensive coordinators are the main reasons Russell Wilson doesn't have at least 3 rings, and that both were self-inflicted injuries on the part of Seattle.

For years they went with this "well we'll just invest cheaply on the line and have Tom Cable coach them up, he's a genius right?" offensive line approach, and it never made sense to me.

As for the coordinators, well you f*cken well know what I think of them right now.

To go back to something Football Outsiders used to say about Brett Favre, being healthy is a skill. There's something to knowing how to take a hit, when to slide, how to move around to avoid contact, and just somehow having more flexible joints to help avoid all sorts of injuries. At some point, if you've been injured constantly, there's probably a reason you've been injured constantly, and expecting a turnaround for that might just be wishful thinking, so, yeah, maybe he comes around, but it's not looking good for Jimmy G.

*Legion* wrote:

As I've said before, I think the lack of offensive line and the poor offensive coordinators are the main reasons Russell Wilson doesn't have at least 3 rings, and that both were self-inflicted injuries on the part of Seattle.

For years they went with this "well we'll just invest cheaply on the line and have Tom Cable coach them up, he's a genius right?" offensive line approach, and it never made sense to me.

As for the coordinators, well you f*cken well know what I think of them right now.

sh*tty coaching Voltron!

I love that description so much.

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