Bold Predictions 2021

Due to similar marketing confusion as the WiiU, the Xbox Series X will struggle this holiday season to sell to all but the knowledgeable gaming audience and those with tech savvy. It's already difficult enough differentiating Xbox One X with Xbox Series X, and will drive more casual consumers bonkers compared to the obviously clear and concise PlayStation 5. That many Series X titles will be playable on One, such as Halo Infinity, will also give many consumers reason to wait until the system's first price-drop or new form factor, assuming there is one. With a name like Series X, it's possible that there will be multiple models, which will only add to the confusion. Regardless, Microsoft's approach in naming and other factors will cause the Series X to sell well enough to a limited audience, but overall the PlayStation 5 will be the holiday winner in 2020.

I have no clue about the sales figures, and it's likely if PS5 did better it's only because of the "home-turf advantage" of Japan. It looks to me they otherwise sold about the same, which is honestly no surprise. However, it certainly seems like there were Xbox One X's purchased by accident. Even if the logic wasn't wholly accurate and Covid made things more difficult than they'd otherwise be, I was pretty much correct in that Microsoft's naming conventions were terrible. Unlike the WiiU, however, it did not prevent units from being sold.

That said, Microsoft has proven that there's value in their services to most consumers. Project xCloud in particular will likely come ahead as Google Stadia continues to struggle, and just as PSVR is the "mainstream" friendly variant of Virtual Reality, xCloud will become the mainstream friendly game streaming service by 2020's conclusion.

I don't really pay attention to Cloud Gaming. Even among Cloud Gaming fans/enthusiasts, however, it feels like the only ones that are fine with Stadia are those that have just bought in wholesale to Cloud Gaming as a service regardless of who is providing it. Everyone else I know either has no interest, or would prefer nVidia's cloud gaming service. I'll need someone else to point out the accuracy of this prediction.

Don't know if you could call it a prediction for 2020, but GDC's State of the Industry indicates that there aren't a lot of developers keen on streaming or subscription services. Keep in mind it also says very few are interested in next-gen, but I believe the numbers are thrown off for a simple reason: there are far more indie developers and indie representatives at an event like GDC than representatives of larger AA and AAA game studios or publishers. Indies are unlikely to even be able to obtain dev kits for PS5 or Xbox Series X. However, while I believe it will mischaracterize what we're likely to see the next couple years in terms of major AAA and AA games on next-gen, I think it gives us an indication of what to expect from indies. And if indies are worried about streaming and subscription services, it means it'll make it harder for new, break out titles to even have a chance, let alone be noticed. So my prediction is that the only indie games you'll see on these services are already proven games or ones that are from more notable studios, with implications that the day of games like Minecraft or Five Nights at Freddy's springing out of nowhere are in their twilight... except on phones, maybe, or some areas of Steam. Regardless, even on GWJ you can see people eager to move to subscription services and away from ownership, and while that has opened up an avenue of smaller-to-middle scale film on Netflix, I feel with games it wouldn't work so well.

Was this a prediction? Was I predicting something here? This is a huge conversation, and if anything, I think what we think of as "indie" is itself beginning to morph, where the line between "guy in his bedroom" and "small team with an office and publisher but owning their own IP" is increasingly blurred.

I feel like going back in time and having an argument with myself over this obnoxious paragraph.

So I guess that's not so much a prediction, huh? Not one that we would be able to witness in just a year, at least. Still, something I found interesting.

It wasn't! It was bait and verbose, you dolt!

I'm always wrong about video game predictions, but what the heck. Might as well shoot for the stars.

Stop wasting my time!

No official tease for Half-Life 3, but the fan-base will still comb through everything they can in Alyx to use as a potential "teaser" for an official third entry.

Did they? I certainly know people are looking out for Half-Life 3 again, especially with Gaben claiming Valve are making games.

Finally more news on Bayonetta 3

This is my Half-Life 3.

Finally more news on Shin Megami Tensei V

We got a trailer and a release year!

First trailer of Persona team's fantasy-RPG project

Gonna roll this one over.

The Metroid Fusion remake is real and releases on Switch this year.

This one, too.

• The Metroid Fusion remake is real and really, really does release in 2021.
• There will be a teaser for Metroid Prime 4, but it will release no earlier than 2022.
• It is the 25th anniversary of The Legend of Zelda, and therefore Nintendo will, at the very least, have ports of Wind Waker HD and Twilight Princess HD planned. Skyward Sword HD will be announced.
• We will see more of Breath of the Wild 2. It will either be the big holiday release of 2021, or it will release on the 5th year anniversary of the Switch in 2022.
• New Switch hardware will be announced. Whether it is a "Pro" model or a "SwitchU/2" I dare not predict. Nor will I predict its release date.
• Bayonetta 3 will finally see release.
• One of the following characters will be added to Super Smash Bros. Ultimate: Travis Touchdown (No More Heroes 3), Jeanne (Bayonetta franchise), Rodan (Bayonetta franchise), Geralt of Rivia (The Witcher 3), Ring Fit Adventure Protagonist (Ring Fit Adventure), Dante (Devil May Cry franchise), Monster Hunter (Monster Hunter franchise)
• Persona 5 will not show up on the Nintendo Switch, despite Joker being in Smash Bros. and Persona 5 Strikers being on the platform (and a direct sequel to P5).
• We'll finally get a new trailer and details for Project Re:Fantasy
• Yoko Taro's next project will be teased shortly after or before the release of the Nier Replicant remake
• Final Fantasy VII Remake Part Two is teased, but will have a vague release date of "2022".
• Final Fantasy VII Remake gets a PC port announced.
• Babylon's Fall gets a release date for 2021.
• Final Fantasy XVI will be slated for 2022.
• Dragon Quest XII will be announced, but not released in 2021.
• Square Enix will continue to announce new heroes for Marvel's Avengers, but, despite celebrating its 1 year anniversary, it will become clear that support is dwindling and they'll plan on abandoning the project.
• BioWare will continue to be transparent regarding the rebuilt of Anthem, but it will struggle to generate any excitement
• Destiny 2's community will continue to be divided between those that play constantly and love it, those that play constantly and hate it, and those who play it every so often but continue to have waning interest. None of the seasons will be enough to rejuvenate it, though the autumn expansion will finally add content back in that the audience will be open to.
• Respawn will announce a new game in development. It will not be Titanfall 3 (nor will it be Jedi: Fallen Order 2)
• EA will announce something involving Dead Space this year. Glass half-full: it's a remastered trilogy package with Extraction as a pre-order bonus (I mean, this is EA, after all). Glass half-empty: it's a completely tone deaf sequel or reboot. Glass completely full: it's Respawn's new project and they turn out to be far better at 3rd person action-horror than combination-Dark-Souls-Character-Action games.
• Halo: Infinite will release to mixed reception. It will be largely perceived more positively than Halo 5, but much like the middle-aged man's days of being the young and spry high school quarterback are far behind them, so are the days where Master Chief was a significant pop culture gaming icon.
• Warner Bros. Interactive announces some garbage microtransaction bullcrap for Back 4 Blood. How invasive it is will determine whether I buy it or am very, very disappointed.
• By the end of 2021, Cyberpunk 2077 will have been patched enough (and put on sale enough) to have been played and received positively by late comers. Playing it after expectations had been dashed will allow those players to see its positives more positively and dismiss its negatives more easily. It will not be as beloved as Witcher 3, but it will find its audience.
• Even though Assassin's Creed has pushed more and more towards RPG and therefore this prediction is very unlikely, I'm going to predict 2021's entry takes place in Russia/Moscow so people can finally climb St. Basil's Cathedral.

CD Project Red will hold a press conference to announce Cyberpunk 2077 will not release until I personally have finished Witcher 3. I will be kidnapped and forced to play it a la the brainwashing scene in A Clockwork Orange.

They should have done this; I would have given them plenty of time to finish developing the game. But a kidnapping and forced playthrough would have violated social distancing guidelines.

Anthem Next, or whatever they end up calling it, will deliver the goods with the gameplay and story Anthem should have had all along. But there will be controversy about how EA charges for it. Either a paid expansion or a lot of F2P-style semi-mandatory store purchases, frustrating those who paid full price to suffer through the 2019 launch.

No, it's back to the drawing board. They're still occasionally blogging about concepts for the revamped game, but it's an interesting bet whether we will see the results even by the end of 2021.

Microsoft and Sony will cut whatever they have to (Disc drives? Controllers?) to create a $499 SKU for both the PS5 and the Xbox Se. X, with the “real” versions costing more.

They both released versions without disc drives, but $499 turned out to be the top end.

I won’t be able to find either until 2021.

Wrong! Walmart refreshed their PS5 stock just for me on Thanksgiving Eve. I was trying harder to find one than I was planning back when I wrote that.

Horizon Zero Dawn 2 will be announced for PS5, releasing in 2021.

Forbidden West has been announced. Now to wait and see if it actually releases this year.

Nintendo will have a quiet year, with Animal Crossing being their only flagship franchise release.

Unless you count Paper Mario or the re-releases, this is a win. I wonder if their pipeline really was empty, or if the pandemic caused the delay of some planned surprise.

No release date will be announced for the second chapter of the Final Fantasy VII remake.

Special bonus long-term prediction: by January 1, 2030, the conclusion of the Final Fantasy VII remake will still not have been released.

So far, so good. The watch continues...

Horizon Forbidden West and God of War Ragnarok are both delayed until 2022. It's Ratchet & Clank vs. the revamped Halo Infinite for the console exclusives championship 2021!

The post-vaccine sales slump is real but will mostly affect hardware. This will come as a relief as new Xboxes, PS5s, top-end video cards, etc are suddenly easy to find. Then we'll see articles about unsold stock piling up too quickly.

After they become demand-limited and not production-limited, sales will be Series S > PS5 > Series X.

The breakout indie hit will be something with local multiplayer.

The other breakout indie hit will be something that promotes Twitch viewer participation. Dead Cells and Noita flirted with this; Gone Viral is trying to push it further; it might be something else entirely. But this is the year.

The breakout VR hit will be some kind of strategy game, real-time or turn-based. Think Homeworld, with all the ships zipping past your ears.

The Switch Pro launches. It is not called the "Switch Pro." Its marquee launch title is... Bayonetta 3. Breath of the Wild 2 is a 2022 release.

Sony unlocks the PS5 NVMe slot, but in a way that annoys everyone, like requiring those already-expensive PCIe4 drives be sold in marked-up, PS5-branded packaging.

Sure, what the heck: Anthem 2.0 Next Revised Reborn launches in late 2021. It's free to a certain level/chapter/whatever, then there's a purchase, slightly discounted for the early adopters.