[News] Coronavirus

A place to discuss the now-global coronavirus outbreak.

Nothing constructive to add, but I just wanted to specifically thank Coldstream, Sorbicol and a few others who, using their professional knowledge, have taken the time to explain various tricky medical topics to us lay people in understandable terms.

farley3k wrote:

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"Nearly a third of people who were discharged from hospitals in England after being treated for Covid-19 were readmitted within five months – and almost one in eight died, a study suggests. The research, which is still to be peer-reviewed, also found a higher risk of problems developing in a range of organs after hospital discharge in those younger than 70 and ethnic minority individuals."

I assume that younger people are being sent home early because "they're young and healthy!" and should recover on their own.

I assume that people from ethnic minorities are being sent home early because of racism.

ClockworkHouse wrote:

I assume that people from ethnic minorities are being sent home early because of racism.

Racism and poverty both, I suspect.

Alright, this made me laugh.

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Yup, that helmet makes you look exactly as stupid as I suspected.

It'll be great for my Buzz Lightyear cosplay, tho.

Prederick wrote:

Alright, this made me laugh.

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Yup, that helmet makes you look exactly as stupid as I suspected.

I want this helmet for all the dumbest of reasons. Nothing COVID related. It does remind me of my sister inlaw's nurse PPE she sent.

Whatever you do, don't open the jar with the black goo!

Prederick wrote:

Alright, this made me laugh.

This is biased reporting. All of the pictures are of Magary and he always looks like a doofus.

Well, of course you're going to look silly if you don't wear the rest of the space suit.

I'm amazed he's not wearing a robe.

Space Force dress uniforms?

iaintgotnopants wrote:

I'm amazed he's not wearing a robe.

He thought it'd make him look too much like the cyborg zombies from Disney's The Black Hole.

My first thought was that there might be some exaggeration with the below statement, then I remembered who was in charge.....

"There is nothing for us to rework": Biden is inheriting a nonexistent vaccine plan from Trump administration, sources say
in the immediate hours following Biden being sworn into office on Wednesday, sources with direct knowledge of the new administration's Covid-related work told CNN one of the biggest shocks that the Biden team had to digest during the transition period was what they saw as a complete lack of a vaccine distribution strategy under former President Donald Trump, even weeks after multiple vaccines were approved for use in the United States.

Now in good news this morning. In addition to the federal mask mandate, Biden is signing a mandate today to require masks in airports, and on trains, planes, and buses (no automobiles, sorry Steve Martin and John Candy).

quote is not edit

JC wrote:

Now in good news this morning. In addition to the federal mask mandate, Biden is signing a mandate today to require masks in airports, and on trains, planes, and buses (no automobiles, sorry Steve Martin and John Candy).

Those aren't MyPillows!

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How Bad Are All These New COVID Variants?

Viruses mutate; so does everything, really. But experts are now concerned about a few of the thousands of coronavirus variants that have turned up around the world. We wrote about the UK variant last month; now there are more, including one in Los Angeles. You do not need to panic. But it’s good to be informed.

One of the big reasons we’re seeing new variants now, a year into the pandemic, is that there’s just so much more virus out there than there was 12 months ago. The more virus there is in the world, the more chances it has to mutate. And the more variants there are, the greater the chances that some of them will be bad news.

If we (as a global community) had done a better job of containing the virus in the first place, we might not have gotten to the point where there are multiple variants that are different enough to worry the experts. But here we are.

Another thing to remember is that you’ll only find variants if you’re looking for them. The UK variant, B.1.1.7, was discovered in part because the UK does a lot of what’s called surveillance testing—monitoring exactly what kinds of coronaviruses are out there. The U.S. does some of this too, but much less. The B.1.1.7 variant was probably already in other countries by the time it was discovered in the UK; they just hadn’t found it yet.

What are the variants to know?
B.1.1.7 was found in November 2020 in the UK, where it had probably been circulating since September or earlier. This New York Times article has more details on the strain and its mutations. It seems to be 50% more transmissible than a typical COVID virus. It has multiple mutations, including eight on the spike protein.

(The spike protein is the part of the virus that interacts with our cells. When we make antibodies to the spike protein, those antibodies can stop the virus from infecting us. The mRNA vaccines include the genetic code of the spike protein, which allows our cells to make the protein and then make antibodies to it.)

B.1.1.7 is more transmissible, but the disease it causes does not seem to be any worse than usual.

B.1.351 was discovered in South Africa, in samples dating back to October 2020, and it also has mutations in the spike protein. It seems to be more transmissible than typical COVID, but does not change the severity of disease. Both this variant and the one from the UK share a mutation called N501Y. A recent study, posted as a preprint, found that the Pfizer vaccine does seem to protect against variants with this mutation.

P.1 is a variant from Brazil, first detected in December 2020. It also has mutations that seem concerning, including to the spike protein. One of its mutations, E484K, may be able to evade antibodies; there’s some reason to suspect that people who have recovered from a previous case of COVID can be infected by these mutations.

CAL.20C is a variant that’s becoming popular in Los Angeles. We don’t know much about it yet.

For all of these variants, the science is still very new. The things we know about them are tentative. None of them seems to cause more severe disease; most are probably susceptible to the existing vaccines; and PCR tests still seem to be able to detect them.

They have also often become the dominant strains in their locations, but for some of the variants, there’s a bit of a chicken-and-egg problem in determining whether they are responsible for spikes in cases or not.

What happens now?
Two things. First, scientists are working on answering the unanswered questions about these variants.

For example, we need to find out whether they’re truly more transmissible, and if so, by how much. We need to know if the variants can evade our natural immunity (which would mean you could catch the virus twice) and whether they can evade immunity from the various vaccines and vaccine candidates that already exist. We need to know if any of the variants cause more severe disease or if there are any clinical differences. And we need to amp up our surveillance, in every country, to be able to find new variants as they emerge and watch where existing variants are taking over.

In time, if it turns out that new variants can evade existing vaccines, the vaccines may need to be updated. We do this for the flu vaccine every year; it’s possible we may have to do the same thing for the COVID vaccine.

But the other action item is simpler, if still difficult: We need to do all the same things we’ve been doing for prevention, only to a greater degree. If a variant is more transmissible, it’s even more important to wear masks and stay home and take testing seriously. It’s extra, extra important to get vaccines to people as quickly as possible. So in that sense, even if the virus changes, our most important measures for controlling it have not changed.

Zooming out a bit, here is something that appears to be very good news. Not an epidemiologist, so maybe it doesn't actually matter to look at things from this way, but as a lay person, it seems positive. Would defer to any of the health care professionals around here.

In my state, we are now averaging 15,500 vax doses/day. This is higher than our ~2,000 reported cases/day. We have 335k doses given to residents (of 605k delivered to providers). When looking at individual counties, many are now showing a faster vax rate (per 10k residents) than total cases (per 10k residents). There are some counties that still lag way behind (predominantly rural counties - but not all rural counties as some have way higher rates of vax than reported cases).

Everything I've read is that reported cases lag actuals since many don't get tested, asymptomatic, etc. Don't know what the actual rates are (2x? 10x?).

Regardless, this appears to indicate we are winning the war on Covid and pushing it into the Black Forest, even if we haven't crossed the Rhine yet. To use some WW2 metaphors.

No idea how things look in places like AZ or CA.

What do you all think? Is this an OK way to look at things? I know I've been wrestling with trying to understand the context of what is happening and WHEN we'll have concrete indicators of things turning around.

My state's CDC expects cases to keep rising at least through February. I'd say we're not starting to win yet, but we've at least finally begun to fight.
To use a WWZ metaphor instead, we've been through our Great Panic (March & toilet paper hoarding), found our Reddeker plan (masks, social distancing, & lockdowns), and the vaccines are our Raj-Singh square. You could say that our Battle of Hope was when they were first authorized for use, but I think that a better analogy will be when we first start to see the vaccine having an effect.

Top_Shelf wrote:

What do you all think? Is this an OK way to look at things? I know I've been wrestling with trying to understand the context of what is happening and WHEN we'll have concrete indicators of things turning around.

The parameters are a little complex given that we need two doses for roughly 95% effectiveness and that raw number doesn't really indicate the distribution of first vs second doses and non-compliance rates for the second dose.
Then we additionally need to ensure that immunity for the earliest recipients lasts longer than it takes for the latest recipients to get vaccinated, lest we lose protection before we reach a herd immunity level. That's unlikely due to the fact that the vaccine seems to remain pretty effective even against the variants that have emerged, but it's certainly a risk.
That risk is probably increased if we see high rates of non-compliance with the second dose as a bunch of mildly ill people with partial immune responses creates a great opportunity for viruses to hang out, spread and potentially mutate.

Well in contrast to the other article I posted....

British officials say COVID-19 variant discovered in UK may be 30% more lethal

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned Friday that a coronavirus variant first detected in the country in September may be around 30% more deadly than previous versions of the disease.

Johnson unveiled the worrying statistic in a London new conference.

British scientists already had concluded that the variant, known as B.1.1.7, spread between 30%-70% faster than the previous dominant coronavirus strain in the U.K.

In addition to spreading faster, "it may be associated with a higher degree of mortality," he said.

Sir Patrick Vallance, Johnson's chief scientific adviser, explained the previous average death rate of 60-year-olds in Britain from COVID-19 was about 10 per 1,000. With the new variant, roughly 13 or 14 out of 1,000 infected people might be expected to die, he said.

"I want to stress there's a lot of uncertainty around these numbers and we need more work to get a precise handle on it, but it obviously is a concern that this (variant, B117) has an increase in mortality as well as an increase in transmissibility," Vallance said.

Concerning variants:New strains of COVID swiftly moving through the US need careful watch, scientists say

The conclusions were based on findings provided to the British government by the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group, or NERVTAG. The group compared mortality rates in people infected with new and old versions of the virus.

The announcement marked the first time British officials said the variant, discovered in Kent, England, appeared more lethal. They previously said there was no reason to believe it could make people sicker or lead to more fatalities.
The findings were based on two papers presented Jan. 15 that showed an increased case fatality rate across age groups. The NERVTAG summary found a “realistic possibility” that infection with the B.1.1.7 variant “is associated with an increased risk of death compared to infection with the non-VOC (virus of concern) viruses."

But the summary also emphasized that the hospital case fatality rate associated with B.1.1.7 has not increased, and "the absolute risk of death per infection remains low."

Hospitalization rates have also not increased, according to the report, although that data may lag behind death rates.

The study was based on the deaths of 2,583 people – 384 of whom had the new variant – among 1.2 million tested. This represents about 8% of all deaths in the U.K. during the late November to early January study period.

Research suggests the Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines will continue to be effective against the new variant in the U.K., which was first detected in southeast England and has now spread around the world, including to the U.S.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a recent report it expects the fast-spreading variant to become the dominant strain in the U.S. by March, potentially fueling exponential growth of the disease.

As of Jan. 20, CDC reported 144 cases of the B.1.1.7 variant in the U.S.

Luciana Borio, a COVID advisor to the Biden administration and former official with the Food and Drug Administration, said she thinks it's too early to say the variant is directly leading to more deaths.

There are other reasons that could explain why more Britons are dying, she said.

As more people are infected, more are expected to die, and "the quality of medical care degrades when the system is under tremendous stress as it is right now in the U.K.," she said.

Also, Borio said, there may be more deaths because people are avoiding or unable to get routine care during the pandemic.

There isn't yet a biological explanation for why this variant should be deadlier than the original version of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19, she said.

"At minimum, I'd like to see data that this virus is causing some higher viral loads or some kind of mechanism that could explain the direct impact," she said. "We don't have any evidence that it's a biological phenomenon."

Akiko Iwasaki, an immunologist at Yale University, said the news should encourage people to "double-down" on their efforts to stay safe through mask-wearing, avoiding indoor crowding, and getting vaccinated as soon they have access.

"Honestly, the more you can avoid interaction altogether, the better," Iwasaki said. "Obviously some people don't have that luxury."

She said she is comforted by data showing vaccines will still work against this variant, but there are already other variants spreading – and more to come.

"You don't want to be fear-mongering, but this really is a problem," she said.

imbiginjapan wrote:
Top_Shelf wrote:

What do you all think? Is this an OK way to look at things? I know I've been wrestling with trying to understand the context of what is happening and WHEN we'll have concrete indicators of things turning around.

The parameters are a little complex given that we need two doses for roughly 95% effectiveness and that raw number doesn't really indicate the distribution of first vs second doses and non-compliance rates for the second dose.
Then we additionally need to ensure that immunity for the earliest recipients lasts longer than it takes for the latest recipients to get vaccinated, lest we lose protection before we reach a herd immunity level. That's unlikely due to the fact that the vaccine seems to remain pretty effective even against the variants that have emerged, but it's certainly a risk.
That risk is probably increased if we see high rates of non-compliance with the second dose as a bunch of mildly ill people with partial immune responses creates a great opportunity for viruses to hang out, spread and potentially mutate.

Good points. In my state, only .67% of residents have received both doses (which I'm chalking up to the fact it's been limited to emergency personnel, health care workers and long-term care residents). I'd like to think we're past the end of the beginning but maybe that's too optimistic.

So, maybe vaccine rollout was El Alamein (the second one!) and we're in 1942.

Thousands of Hong Kongers locked down to contain coronavirus

HONG KONG (AP) — Thousands of Hong Kong residents were locked down Saturday in an unprecedented move to contain a worsening outbreak in the city, authorities said.

Hong Kong has been grappling to contain a fresh wave of the coronavirus since November. Over 4,300 cases have been recorded in the last two months, making up nearly 40% of the city’s total.

Coronavirus cases in Hong Kong’s Yau Tsim Mong district – a working-class neighborhood with old buildings and subdivided flats – represent about half of infections in the past week.

Sewage testing in the area picked up more concentrated traces of the virus, prompting concerns that poorly built plumbing systems and a lack of ventilation in subdivided units may present a possible path for the virus to spread.

Authorities said in a statement Saturday that an area comprising 16 buildings in Yau Tsim Mong will be locked down until all residents have been tested. Residents will not be allowed to leave their homes until they have received their test results to prevent cross-infection.

“Persons subject to compulsory testing are required to stay in their premises until all such persons identified in the area have undergone testing and the test results are mostly ascertained,” the government said in a statement.

Hong Kong has previously avoided lockdowns in the city during the pandemic, with leader Carrie Lam stating in July last year that authorities will avoid taking such “extreme measures” unless it had no other choice.

The restrictions, which were announced at 4 a.m. in Hong Kong, are expected to end within 48 hours, the government said.

It appealed to employers to exercise discretion and avoid docking the salary of employees who have been affected by the restrictions and may not be able to go to work.

Hong Kong has seen a total of 9,929 infections in the city, with 168 deaths recorded as of Friday.

Meanwhile, in my state, 15,144 positive cases today, 165 dead.

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A little anecdotal evidence to add to this thread. I’ve made numerous COVID calls the last few weeks. It’s been ugly, the politization of this virus is the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen. We made a woman who was DOA and her husband said she was statting 48% SPO2 and decided she needed a shower before going back to the hospital. I’ve made CPR calls with dead folk that had a lower stat than that. Another woman with COVID and diabetic was doing poorly and everyone in the house had it as well and they weren’t wearing f*cking masks after calling us and letting us in. Just awful.

As an aside, my wife currently has it and is suffering pretty bad with it. Not, like dying bad, but pretty miserable. I’ve been vaccinated and I still take precautions around her as I would if I were at work treating a patient. Her workplace, where she is head of parking at a university is filled with cops that don’t think it’s too serious unless legitimately confronted with it. I... just can’t. I’ve been quarantined with her and off work for a week and a half now with hopefully and end in sight some time this next week, hoping that she gets better.

Yeah, somehow COVID became a tough guy thing. That somehow its overblown but if you get it, you'd better tough it out for the sake of manliness. Wearing a mask means you are a coward.

I mean I know it all started from the top but the way and rate that narrative spread and devolved is unbelievable.

fangblackbone wrote:

Yeah, somehow COVID became a tough guy thing. That somehow its overblown but if you get it, you'd better tough it out for the sake of manliness. Wearing a mask means you are a coward.

I mean I know it all started from the top but the way and rate that narrative spread and devolved is unbelievable.

Toxic masculinity, the deadliest of viruses.

Why does anyone think President Bonespurs, former twitter tough guy, is any example of manliness?

Stele wrote:

Why does anyone think President Bonespurs, former twitter tough guy, is any example of manliness?

Because he's rich and rude.

Chumpy_McChump wrote:
Stele wrote:

Why does anyone think President Bonespurs, former twitter tough guy, is any example of manliness?

Because he's rich and rude.

Yeah. He’s an asshole and that’s what they think being a manly guy is.

My mother in law is not from the US and a "successful businessman" means blessed by the almighty to her. Plus all the Facebook garbage. And apparently saying you are pro-life goes a long way.

It is amazing to see people trying to "These colors don't run" through a pandemic.

Like, a virus doesn't care if you're not scared of it. It doesn't care if you are scared of it. It's a virus, it'll do virus things, unless you take proper precautions.