[Discussion] Brexit means Brexit

Discuss the political fallout and other issues around Britain's exit, Brexit for short, from the EU.

For the sake of clarity, I'm including the full text of Article 50.

Article 50 wrote:

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

ClockworkHouse wrote:

Is anyone surprised by this?

The voters of the Leopards Eating Faces party?

“It was put to me that this was kind of a bit like twins, and the UK is one twin the EU is another, and if the EU decides to have a haircut then the UK is going to have a haircut or else face punishment. Or if the EU decides to buy an expensive handbag then the UK has to buy an expensive handbag too or else face tariffs,” he said.

Is...is that how twins work?

I assume the individuals that are going to whinge the loudest about no deal and the impact that it’s about to have are the ones that voted to leave.

There really should be a law to allow these people to be slapped.

It'll probably involve the phrase 'this isn't the Brexit I voted for!'.
Because that Brexit is a literal impossibility.

That's the Brexit where the EU does exactly what the UK wants in all respects, and gives them huge gobs of money for no particular reason.

I am shocked, shocked, to find out that the conservatives were misleading the public into something appallingly stupid.

When do we get to sunlit uplands?

So the tories can't even secure a trade deal with a bloc of countries with which we already have a trade deal and we're supposed to believe they are capable of securing all manner of future free trade agreements with other places?

DanB wrote:

So the tories can't even secure a trade deal with a bloc of countries with which we already have a trade deal and we're supposed to believe they are capable of securing all manner of future free trade agreements with other places?

The best trade deals.

Tremendous deals.

You won't believe how good these deals will be, when we unveil them. We'll have them in two weeks.

This is impacting Ireland because the UK is what's termed as the "Land Bridge" for Ireland's shipping. Fastest why to get goods to Ireland is ferry from Calais to Dover, drive to Holyhead and ferry to Dublin. Ferry companies have been expanding their fleet over the last few years with larger ships and direct routes to the continent but even with that it will cause huge disruption to supply chains in Ireland.

The mood between Dublin and London could seriously sour. What London fails to continually grasp is Dublin remains a member of the EU and other member states will side with it over London, within reason. The UK government has cards to play here but were still trying to work out which game they are playing, if it's even a card game at all.

Axon wrote:

The mood between Dublin and London could seriously sour. What London fails to continually grasp is Dublin remains a member of the EU and other member states will side with it over London, within reason. The UK government has cards to play here but were still trying to work out which game they are playing, if it's even a card game at all.

They aren’t playing a game of economics, they are playing a game of ideology. The brexiteers that have somehow been given control of this whole debacle were always about ideology - first about immigration, now about ‘sovereignty’. If Ireland and the economic viability of the UK is a casualty of that, then so be it.

And believe me, there is practically nobody in this Conservative government who gives a flying f*ck about Ireland.

I doubt anyone in Ireland would think otherwise. Probably the single greatest reason we love rules based multi-lateral organisations.

DanB wrote:

So the tories can't even secure a trade deal with a bloc of countries with which we already have a trade deal and we're supposed to believe they are capable of securing all manner of future free trade agreements with other places?

I heard an interview with Michael Marshall of the Merseyside Skeptics a year or so ago about the then-looming Brexit disaster. His comment about trade deals was along the lines of "Remember those great trade deals we had in the EU, formed by tough, skilled, and experienced negotiators? All of those people are on the other side now, and you [the Brexiting UK] don't have any equivalent fit to deal with them."

In the annals of all-time blunders by the United Kingdom, Brexit is probably in the #2 spot.

What's the first, Malor?

Also, I read that they are telling supermarkets to stockpile goods; however, that seems completely ignorant in the world we live in now with just-in-time delivery. Supermarkets simply don't have the space to store excess goods. They're in for a rude awakening if they think supermarkets are going to have anything more than a week of goods on hand, if that. A lot of stores only have enough goods for a couple days at best. And in the inevitable run on the stores that occurs, that will shrink to nothing.

BoogtehWoog wrote:

What's the first, Malor?

Also, I read that they are telling supermarkets to stockpile goods; however, that seems completely ignorant in the world we live in now with just-in-time delivery. Supermarkets simply don't have the space to store excess goods. They're in for a rude awakening if they think supermarkets are going to have anything more than a week of goods on hand, if that. A lot of stores only have enough goods for a couple days at best. And in the inevitable run on the stores that occurs, that will shrink to nothing.

to be fair to the supermarkets I think you'll find a lot of them have been stockpiling some essential provisions for a while now. A lot of the problem for a lot of companies has been trying to move away from the "just in time" materials delivery service into a more of a longer term warehouse distribution model. That's caught out the automotive industry very badly as it's all based on getting in components just at the point they are needed, not stockpile on site or anything like that.

They have asked individuals not to stockpile things, but given the rush on non-perishable provisions at the start of covid I very much doubt that's not going to happen.

Yes, the start of Covid was a pretty reasonable example of the sort of thing that happens. We had a couple of weeks without tinned tomatoes. The supermarkets are at least in pretty good financing shape (people at home means their revenues are up).

We are not stock piling but we are buying a little bit extra. I have zero trust that this government won’t do the worst thing at every point. There isn’t a good minister left in the cabinet.

Even getting the deal doesn’t really help. The ports aren’t ready. Both RO-RO and container ports are going to be a mess. Felixstowe has been under invested in (40% of containers) and is already struggling badly.

BoogtehWoog wrote:

What's the first, Malor?

Given how things are going at the moment, one might argue "colonizing North America."

Prederick wrote:
BoogtehWoog wrote:

What's the first, Malor?

Given how things are going at the moment, one might argue "colonizing North America."

I was thinking a 700 way tie between "Every foreign policy decision made since 1833" or "Any act where the word 'partition' is featured prominently".

DoveBrown wrote:

I have zero trust that this government won’t do the worst thing at every point.

Arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrgh

So today a Trade Deal between the UK and the EU has been agreed, although it’ll still need to be ratified by both sides. I think necessity will take precedence there, but frankly with our MPs who knows?

Despite all the Government ministers now coming out saying ‘we can put brexit behind us now and move on’, it’s worth noting that Brexit hasn’t happened yet. Nothing that’s going to happen over the next five years is going to let us move on.

In a sense, it's happened. A third of UK businesses are supposed to be considering moves overseas.

I work in FinTech. It appears Frankfurt and Dublin are splitting the spoils. It might take decades but this has to be the beginning of the end for City of London. Way too many players outside the City have every incentive to whittle away at it.

Well it’s done. It’s pretty much what the Hardest Brexit short of No Deal. The U.K. won’t starve but it pretty much undermines the U.K. services sector (including financial). Not dug into the details yet. The commentary at the moment is the U.K. achieved its sovereignty aim with almost no positive positions achieved. The EU succeeded in making sure they can retaliate against any divergence. I lost the ability to get Clonakilty black pudding and sausages in the Spar.

Something about that fact really hits home, DoveBrown. I'm sure you can order some but it not being in the local Spar just makes it more poignant.

Some headlines of the deal from the Irish Times. Actually it's the Guardian. And I'm not entirely sure I agree with some of it and what's actually becoming quite clear is that this isn't really a deal but just a transition period.

CGP Grey's prediction is certainly the most likely now.

What did Mr. Grey predict? Roughly.

Trying to find the clip but it was never ending negotiations that are not dissimilar to Switzerland's position. Never fully in or fully out. I'll get it later.

That would not surprise me in the least. No need for the clip, I found some references.

Brexit constantly reminds of that old saying, "better to reign in Hell than serve in Heaven."

The problem is, the leadership took millions of people with them. So now everyone will be miserable, but yay, the British government has no oversight. They get to be overlords again!

Of pretty much nothing, but overlords!

OVERLORDS.