[Discussion] Election 2020

Seems like the board is set. Let’s see how this goes.

gewy wrote:

What stronger options do Democratic leaders have at their disposal?

Lol that’s the problem. There are people going “don’t worry the system will protect us” after four years of the current administration showing us that our entire government is basically held together by the honor system and traditions that only one side is interested in following.

If Trump decides to contest the results the only way it will end is with mass protests in the streets that will likely result in a lot of deaths.

Not a lot before you get to either mass protest action (which I don't put a lot of faith in) or the bang-bang. The thing about laws is that the only have teeth if everyone agrees to follow them and punish those who don't. If your opponents go "Nah, not doing any of that," your options are limited.

I have zero faith the military would actually remove Trump. I know for sure no Republican will move to remove him from Office.

I just hope all of y'all are still planning on voting because there is more than a whiff of it doesn't matter going on in here.

The people of Belarus are still out there protesting, even while thousands of them are being dissapeared.

They had another mass protest of one hundred thousand people today!

I have to believe that the American people will not stand for an outright theft.

To quote Jason Isbell:

I know you're tired
And you ain't sleeping well
Uninspired
And likely mad as hell
But wherever you are
I hope the high road leads you home again
To a world you want to live in


We'll ride the ship down
Dumping buckets overboard
There can't be more of them than us
There can't be more

I know you're tired
And you ain't sleeping well
Uninspired
And likely mad as hell
But wherever you are
I hope the high road leads you home again
To a world you want to live in
To a world you want to live in

Prederick wrote:
Jonman wrote:

You're not wrong, but there's a part of me that's getting the popcorn ready to see what ludicrous bullsh*t these muppets will come up with to explain how the worst president in the history of the country lost re-election.

I am emphatically not excited for this outcome, because at this point, there is no reason to believe Trump will accept an electoral loss, or whatever non-radicalized remnants of the Republican party that remain will turn against him, meaning there will not be a peaceful transition of power in the fall and things could get very ugly, very fast.

And the IHME is projecting the US will hit 3000 deaths a day in November and maintain that through December. It’s just gonna be great.

Get that popcorn out everyone. It’s gonna be fun.

Excited popcorn guy.gif

Michael Jackson with popcorn.gif

Every popcorn gif

Prederick wrote:

I, personally, am purchasing a firearm before election day.

I hate to say this, because I have long been in favor of strict gun controls, but after the Charlottesville sh*t went down, I knew that sectarian violence in the US was only going to get worse. It wasn't a question of "if" but a question of "how much".

I did purchase firearms and get my carry permit just in case. I have a handgun and a shotgun. I've gone to classes for safety/training and have practiced with both.

I hate it. I kind of hate myself for it.

We ostensibly have the firearms for "home defense", but I am under no illusion that I should ever expect to need to use them for defense against a burglar or such. Instead, they're intended for community defense if we end up having to worry about significant social unrest leading to "Proud Boy" or other Nazi types deciding they have a mandate to try to exert their authority.

I hate it. I hate myself for allowing fear to do this to me. But I also refuse to sit back if my community comes under threat from fascists.

I mostly expect that I will look back years from now and shake my head at what I allowed myself to come to. But I'm not willing to bet the safety of my family, friends, and neighbors on it.

I don't like talking about it, because I feel ashamed and guilty for taking this step when I've taken such a strong stance in favor of gun control. And if we as a nation get our sh*t together, I will happily sell or turn in our firearms. But I have grown more and more fearful of just how bad things are going to get.

You might be better off getting and becoming proficient with a rifle.

I won't begrudge any responsible person their choice when it comes to defense, but since you asked here's my personal take:

As for guns, they're not for me. Doing the math for myself, I found there are far more situations where one would be a liability than any sort of help. It's easy to run worst-case things through in my mind, but that's not real life.

The positives:
- I have a weapon that can kill somebody if I should need to do so.
- If it's a rifle maybe I can hunt for food. (The amount I want to do this is zero though.)

The negatives:
- I must regularly train with it, or it's a dangerous placebo - both to me and anyone within shooting distance (including beyond my intended target). The one positive evaporates if I don't.
- Given my living situation and for safety, I must keep it safe in such a way that it won't be immediately available.
- It's a target for theft.
- It's a conflict escalator. Any time I decide to point it at someone, that becomes a life and death situation even if it wasn't going to be one otherwise. I am not trained to handle that.
- I will spend extra time deciding whether it's the proper tool for the job and retrieving it instead of doing the ol' GTFO.
- I am human, and an imperfect judge of what's going on. That's especially the case when waking from sleep, or after occasional alcohol consumption.

Other options:
- If I feel like I'm going to be in unsafe situations in the future, get healthy and be able to run. Make plans with family and friends. Have other options prepared and ready.
- Have less than lethal options prepared which can enable my escape if defending myself becomes necessary. Ones that won't be a liability. Learn to use them.
- (In my case) Realize I'm fairly privileged, live in a safe area, have a good support system available (including in other places), and have neighbors who look after each other.

EDIT: I could've said something about defense under positives, but for me that rings hollow. Life isn't TV, and I don't think showing a gun is itself any kind of defense. Having the ability to kill is the real defense, IMO.

~mod~
Reminder that this is starting to drift from discussion around the 2020 election into something maybe better discussed in the Elections 2020 Side Discussions Thread, as the conversation has moved more into personal gun ownership and not the pending election.

Badferret wrote:

I have to believe that the American people will not stand for an outright theft.

A: yes I'm absolutely still voting and pressuring everyone i know to still vote also.

B: We were fine with outright election theft it in 2000, if it comes to that I expect we will be fine with it again, but i'll be packing my bags.

North Carolina Goodgers, you can track your absentee ballots here.

After dropping off my vote on Friday and checking the portal this weekend, here is the notification that I received:

This is a message from Haywood County Board Of Elections. Your ballot for the 2020 General Election was accepted. Thank you for voting!

Evidently, about 3% percent of ballots are being rejected so far. The state should automatically notify you if your ballot is rejected but you can check the portal and follow up on your own to be sure.

LouZiffer wrote:

I won't begrudge any responsible person their choice when it comes to defense, but since you asked here's my personal take:

***

EDIT: I could've said something about defense under positives, but for me that rings hollow. Life isn't TV, and I don't think showing a gun is itself any kind of defense. Having the ability to kill is the real defense, IMO.

Thank you for taking the time to write this. It was really helpful to me as I work through a similar analysis. I am really struggling with the question of buying a shotgun in the run up to November. I've identified the model I would purchase, but despite having some experience with firearms, I don't keep up the training.

Edit: Amoebic, I read your note after I posted this. Fair point and I will desist further on this topic.

Badferret wrote:

North Carolina Goodgers, you can track your absentee ballots here.

After dropping off my vote on Friday and checking the portal this weekend, here is the notification that I received:

This is a message from Haywood County Board Of Elections. Your ballot for the 2020 General Election was accepted. Thank you for voting!

Evidently, about 3% percent of ballots are being rejected so far. The state should automatically notify you if your ballot is rejected but you can check the portal and follow up on your own to be sure.

Thanks. Wife and I requested a while back but still haven't received.

EDIT: They were in the mailbox today actually. Just hadn't went down when I posted earlier.

Trump will absolutely stalk, delay, and negate so many absentee ballots when he’s ahead on election night. Don’t be surprised when a governor certifies a group of democratic electors only to have GOP submit their own and devolve this all into a miasma of fascism.

At this juncture, we have to realize, collectively, that the game were playing - by tradition over 250 years, is not in play today and to not depend on the courts, the vote, common human decency, the Constitution, or any representatives to protect what’s left of this democracy and rebuild it now understand the specific weaknesses of our system.

Florida counts their absentee ballots starting 22 days before election day. That's why we have signed up with Vote Forward to write a personalized letter to a Florida voter that is likely to lean democratic but not a sure thing to vote.

Florida will very likely to be called on election night, one way or the other, and Trump basically doesn't have a path without it.

Got my NC absentee ballot in the mail today. I'm thinking I'm going to go and vote in person though. I am too concerned that absentee ballots are going to be ignored.

JC wrote:

Got my NC absentee ballot in the mail today. I'm thinking I'm going to go and vote in person though. I am too concerned that absentee ballots are going to be ignored.

Understandable, but remember that NC has a Democrat as Secretary of State and here is our absantee voting timeline:

The fifth Tuesday before Election Day. Counties using optical scan devices may remove ballots from their envelopes and place them in tabulators.

Two weeks prior to Election Day, provided the hour and place of counting is announced. Results shall not be announced before 7:30 p.m. on Election Day.

Patrick Marley
@patrickdmarley
BREAKING: In 4-3 decision, Wisconsin Supreme Court keeps the Green Party ticket off of Wisconsin's ballot.

Conservative Justice Brian Hagedorn joins the court's three liberals to form a majority.

This means clerks do not have to reprint ballots and can now mail them.

Hopefully, the few Republicans now willing to grow even a teeny, tiny spine will be enough!

Amusing mistake results in a depressingly appropriate ad from a few days ago:

IMAGE(https://deadstate.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Screen-Shot-2020-09-14-at-6.15.00-PM.png)

Spoiler:
“That’s definitely a MiG-29,” said Pierre Sprey, who helped design both the F-16 and A-10 planes for the U.S. Air Force. “I’m glad to see it’s supporting our troops.”

He noted the angle of the aircraft’s tail, the way the tail is swept far back, and the spacing of the engines, along with the tunnel between them.

Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies in Moscow, confirmed that the planes are Russian MiG-29s, and also said the soldier on the far right in the ad carries an AK-74 assault rifle.

BlackSheep wrote:

Don’t be surprised when a governor certifies a group of democratic electors only to have GOP submit their own and devolve this all into a miasma of fascism.

I was actually thinking kind of the opposite - a GOP governor (and state house/senate) certify a group of republican electors before the absentee ballots are all counted, and when it turns out in the end that the Democrats won the state, the GOP says "well, they're already certified, too bad". Lawsuits ensue.

Keldar wrote:
BlackSheep wrote:

Don’t be surprised when a governor certifies a group of democratic electors only to have GOP submit their own and devolve this all into a miasma of fascism.

I was actually thinking kind of the opposite - a GOP governor (and state house/senate) certify a group of republican electors before the absentee ballots are all counted, and when it turns out in the end that the Democrats won the state, the GOP says "well, they're already certified, too bad". Lawsuits ensue.

Ah, what timing! I was about to post this:

Dem group warns of apparent Trump Election Day landslide

A top Democratic data and analytics firm told "Axios on HBO" it's highly likely that President Trump will appear to have won — potentially in a landslide — on election night, even if he ultimately loses when all the votes are counted.

Why this matters: Way more Democrats will vote by mail than Republicans, due to fears of the coronavirus, and it will take days if not weeks to tally these. This means Trump, thanks to Republicans doing almost all of their voting in person, could hold big electoral college and popular vote leads on election night.

- Imagine America, with its polarization and misinformation, if the vote tally swings wildly toward Joe Biden and Trump loses days later as the mail ballots are counted.
- That is what this group, Hawkfish, which is funded by Michael Bloomberg and also does work for the Democratic National Committee and pro-Biden Super PACs, is warning is a very real, if not foreordained, outcome.

What they're saying: Hawkfish CEO Josh Mendelsohn calls the scenario a "red mirage."

- "We are sounding an alarm and saying that this is a very real possibility, that the data is going to show on election night an incredible victory for Donald Trump," he said.
- "When every legitimate vote is tallied and we get to that final day, which will be some day after Election Day, it will in fact show that what happened on election night was exactly that, a mirage," Mendelsohn said. "It looked like Donald Trump was in the lead and he fundamentally was not when every ballot gets counted."

Election Day is going to be an absolute sh*tshow.

Except Florida counts early. They can have totals on election night. And if Trump loses Florida he loses, period.

So maybe that stupid state can start to make up for 2000

gewy wrote:

Amusing mistake results in a depressingly appropriate ad from a few days ago
[...]

I'm positive that ad is from a Russian op. Apart from the obvious military equipment, the bottom sentence is missing a "the" -- very telling -- and they misspelled "committee" as well.

Also, the dude with the AK literally looks like he's in ISIS.

Stele wrote:

Except Florida counts early. They can have totals on election night. And if Trump loses Florida he loses, period.

So maybe that stupid state can start to make up for 2000

There is nothing Florida can do to make up for 8 years of a war criminal.

Stele wrote:

Except Florida counts early. They can have totals on election night. And if Trump loses Florida he loses, period.

So maybe that stupid state can start to make up for 2000

That what this article in Newsweek says too.

"But the Hawkfish analysis exaggerates the shift that is likely to take place. It seems implausible that preliminary results on election night will show Trump with over 400 of the 538 electoral votes. The analysis unfortunately does not appear to account for real differences across states in how ballots are actually processed.

"In states such as Pennsylvania and Arizona, it may take many days to tabulate ballots and the vote margin could shift significantly. But states such as Florida and Minnesota are able to process absentee ballots in advance, which will speed up the tabulation and blend the election day votes with votes that are cast in advance by mail."

That said, I still feel like DeSatan is still doing everything he can to make Florida go red.

Prederick wrote:

Also, the dude with the AK literally looks like he's in ISIS.

It's a bizarre piece. I am guessing it's fake or propaganda. Center dude looks like the cover art guy from Battlefield 2 or 3.

Those are all Russian aircraft. The "soldiers" have a mishmash of gear. Some have helmets, some don't.

AR family rifles, an AK type (they say it's a 74 but that compensator is on many models) and what looks like a shotgun on dude left of center.

Speaking of center left, I am not even sure he's a soldier or even law enforcement. Doesn't appear to be wearing any body armor or protective gear. Has big goggles, like ski goggles and maybe a motorcycle helmet.

Edit: Center guy looks like a doctored version of Battlefield 3 or Bad Company 2 cover art. There's dozens of versions of the character in different poses.

That can just be the tagline for their entire strategy.