[Discussion] Election 2020

Seems like the board is set. Let’s see how this goes.

Postal Service warns 46 states their voters could be disenfranchised by delayed mail-in ballots

Washington Post wrote:

Anticipating an avalanche of absentee ballots, the U.S. Postal Service recently sent detailed letters to 46 states and D.C. warning that it cannot guarantee all ballots cast by mail for the November election will arrive in time to be counted — adding another layer of uncertainty ahead of the high-stakes presidential contest.

The letters sketch a grim possibility for the tens of millions of Americans eligible for a mail-in ballot this fall: Even if people follow all of their state’s election rules, the pace of Postal Service delivery may disqualify their votes.

The Postal Service’s warnings of potential disenfranchisement came as the agency undergoes a sweeping organizational and policy overhaul amid dire financial conditions. Cost-cutting moves have already delayed mail delivery by as much as a week in some places, and a new decision to decommission 10 percent of the Postal Service’s sorting machines sparked widespread concern the slowdowns will only worsen. Rank-and-file postal workers say the move is ill-timed and could sharply diminish the speedy processing of flat mail, including letters and ballots.

...

Some states anticipate 10 times the normal volume of election mail. Six states and D.C. received warnings that ballots could be delayed for a narrow set of voters. But the Postal Service gave 40 others — including the key battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida — more-serious warnings that their long-standing deadlines for requesting, returning or counting ballots were “incongruous” with mail service and that voters who send ballots in close to those deadlines may become disenfranchised.

“The Postal Service is asking election officials and voters to realistically consider how the mail works,” Martha Johnson, a spokeswoman for the USPS, said in a statement.

...

The letters warning about November caution many states that their deadlines for voters to request an absentee ballot are too close to Election Day and that “the Postal Service cannot adjust its delivery standards to accommodate the requirements of state election law.” The letters put the onus on election officials to adjust deadlines or educate voters to act well before them.

Mail carriers, meanwhile, have warned that new cost-cutting measures at the USPS are slowing the delivery of mail ballots in key states. Recent contests have offered a preview of the potential consequences, with voters — particularly in urban areas such as Detroit and the Bronx — complaining that their absentee ballots did not arrive until the last minute or at all.

The problems predate the cost-cutting measures — a late returned ballot was the chief reason absentee or mail ballots were disqualified during the 2016 election, according to U.S. Election Assistance Commission data submitted to Congress.

But the onslaught of vote-by-mail ballots, driven by directives to stay at home and practice social distancing during the pandemic, has increased the volume of delays this year. In D.C.’s early-June primary, elections officials drove around town hand-delivering ballots because the mail service was not quick enough. In Florida, 18,500 mailed ballots arrived too late to be counted during the March primary. Tens of thousands of late ballots in Pennsylvania were counted only after courts intervened.

Eighteen states and D.C. have eased or expanded access to mail ballots during the pandemic, allowing concerned voters to avoid potential exposure to the virus at polling places. These policy shifts have brought the number of Americans who are eligible to cast mail or absentee ballots in the general election to a historic high of nearly 180 million, roughly 97 million of whom will automatically receive an absentee ballot or an absentee ballot request form in the mail, according to a tally by The Washington Post.

An analysis of the USPS letters to states reveals that the threat of ballot rejection because of missed delivery deadlines may be highest for voters in 40 states that received serious warnings. About 159.5 million registered voters live in those states.

According to the letters, the risk of disenfranchisement is greatest for voters who wait until close to Election Day to request or cast a ballot. The letters advised 31 states that regardless of their deadlines, voters should mail ballots no later than Oct. 27 — a week before Election Day — if they want to guarantee they are counted.

My anxiety that Trump would eek out another electoral college victory despite clearly losing the popular vote has come and gone in severity for a long time. I still think it's possible, but unlikely.

What about the possibility he would refuse to leave office after losing though? I didn't worry about it too much. I knew it could happen obviously, and that it'd be a complete mess. But I envisioned it would primarily be driven by his narcissistic inability to admit defeat. He'd go on Twitter and rant. Fox News would throw a fit for a while, but then again, what else is new? So *shrug*. There'd be some halfhearted legal challenges. Republican politicians like McConnell would hem and haw and be spineless like Susan Collins. They'd just want to lay low and survive until things blew over and they could return to the comfortable routine of full time obstructionism that ended in 2016. Die hard MAGA-heads would protest and intimidate, but they'd just look like the crazy fringe. Most would know Trump lost and just want him gone so everyone could move on. Trump would look more and more pathetic and whiny as days passed until he finally accepted reality and left sulking with his tail between his legs.

Over the last couple of weeks though, my thinking has changed and my stress level has skyrocketed. It seems like the Trump team fully expects he will probably lose and is developing a comprehensive plan to keep him in power no matter what. They will be prepared with countless legal challenges and a misinformation campaign to stir up right wing media and its viewers. Republican officials from Congress all the way down to the county level will mostly fall in line, either because they're cowards or true believers. Ultimately, Trump won't be alone and sulking. He'll have numerous powerful allies working in conjunction. People will be disenfranchised in staggering numbers. I think violence in the streets is likely at that point. Then the authoritarian gloves truly come off. I'm not sure what the way out will be.

Please tell me I'm catastrophizing? What is the guard rail in place to prevent things from flying that far off road? Can we count on the courts?

If America were in Africa, there would be an army of election observers already on the ground.

Saw this on Twitter, but unsure of the source. But it seems to check out.

IMAGE(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Efe3ZGsWkAETm1H?format=jpg&name=900x900)
IMAGE(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Efe3gzZXYAAMCoQ?format=jpg&name=900x900)
IMAGE(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Efe3l4ZXoAIfoQa?format=jpg&name=900x900)

As the Republican Party is trying to steal the upcoming election through sabotaging the Postal Service and thus mail-in voting.
I’ve been trying to think of ways we the people can prevent this.

It strikes me that one way to prevent this is to organize to help get voters who can’t drive to a drop box where they can drop off their mail-in ballot. Is there any organization already involved in helping get people to the polls? Do we need to start one?

It seems like a good idea would be to start getting people to the polls as early as possible. Maybe even combining it with time off of work in a form of general strike to make sure all votes get in.

gewy wrote:

What about the possibility he would refuse to leave office after losing though? I didn't worry about it too much. I knew it could happen obviously, and that it'd be a complete mess. But I envisioned it would primarily be driven by his narcissistic inability to admit defeat. He'd go on Twitter and rant. Fox News would throw a fit for a while, but then again, what else is new? So *shrug*. There'd be some halfhearted legal challenges. Republican politicians like McConnell would hem and haw and be spineless like Susan Collins. They'd just want to lay low and survive until things blew over and they could return to the comfortable routine of full time obstructionism that ended in 2016. Die hard MAGA-heads would protest and intimidate, but they'd just look like the crazy fringe. Most would know Trump lost and just want him gone so everyone could move on. Trump would look more and more pathetic and whiny as days passed until he finally accepted reality and left sulking with his tail between his legs.

Over the last couple of weeks though, my thinking has changed and my stress level has skyrocketed. It seems like the Trump team fully expects he will probably lose and is developing a comprehensive plan to keep him in power no matter what. They will be prepared with countless legal challenges and a misinformation campaign to stir up right wing media and its viewers. Republican officials from Congress all the way down to the county level will mostly fall in line, either because they're cowards or true believers. Ultimately, Trump won't be alone and sulking. He'll have numerous powerful allies working in conjunction. People will be disenfranchised in staggering numbers. I think violence in the streets is likely at that point. Then the authoritarian gloves truly come off. I'm not sure what the way out will be.

Please tell me I'm catastrophizing? What is the guard rail in place to prevent things from flying that far off road? Can we count on the courts?

The transfer of power happens even if he refuses to acknowledge it. My hope for that is that the Secret Service and/or the military would detain him, as him refusing to leave should be considered a threat to the newly elected President. The only potential problem is if we get another situation like Florida in the 2000 election. Trump would absolutely refuse to do what Gore did and concede defeat early in that situation, and for the good of the country I don't think Biden should either. If it dragged it out long enough, whomever the Speaker of the House is would become President on Jan 20th, at least until the election results can be verified.

The only potential problem is if we get another situation like Florida in the 2000 election. Trump would absolutely refuse to do what Gore did and concede defeat early in that situation, and for the good of the country I don't think Biden should either.

Right. That's what I'm afraid of specifically. They're actively trying to generate this situation in every swing state. This could be a volcano that makes Bush v. Gore look like a campfire by comparison.

DSGamer wrote:

As the Republican Party is trying to steal the upcoming election through sabotaging the Postal Service and thus mail-in voting.
I’ve been trying to think of ways we the people can prevent this.

It strikes me that one way to prevent this is to organize to help get voters who can’t drive to a drop box where they can drop off their mail-in ballot. Is there any organization already involved in helping get people to the polls? Do we need to start one?

It seems like a good idea would be to start getting people to the polls as early as possible. Maybe even combining it with time off of work in a form of general strike to make sure all votes get in.

Well, Trump might be protected from Congress, but DeJoy isn't. The House could subpoena him to answer questions about what the hell he's doing at USPS and if he doesn't show, arrest him for contempt.

Post Office board of governors could vote and remove DeJoy, but Trump would just appoint another stooge. And anyway they don't have the full BoG because Bernie threw a fit about some of Obama's nominees back in 2015-6 apparently...

The Hill wrote:

Not a single member remains of the Postal Board of Governors. The board, which is supposed to have 11 members – nine appointed by the president and approved by Congress, as well as the Postmaster General and Deputy Postmaster General – lost its final outside member, James Bilbray, when his term expired at midnight on Dec. 8.

The governors, who advise the Postal Service on management, approve price changes and can fire the Postmaster General, serve staggered 9-year terms, so one member’s term expires each year on Dec. 8. If no replacement is approved, the law permits a governor to serve for an additional year. The board must have six members to achieve quorum.

President Obama has nominated five people to serve on the board – three Democrats and two Republicans. The Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee, which has jurisdiction over the Postal Service, has approved all five. But the full Senate has not taken up the matter because a senator – believed to be Bernie Sanders – has placed a hold on their nominations.

Jayhawker wrote:

Saw this on Twitter, but unsure of the source. But it seems to check out.

IMAGE(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Efe3gzZXYAAMCoQ?format=jpg&name=900x900)

This one and the other one are a little bit misleading.

The Post Office has 21 Network Distribution Centers, one of which pretty much every piece of mail has to travel through. Out of convenience if not necessity, every one of them is located in or near a fairly major metropolitan area. Consequently, most of the USPS's sorting capacity, which is in those facilities, is located near a fairly major metropolitan area. Coincidentally, almost every fairly major metropolitan area in the country leans Democratic and voted overwhelmingly for Clinton over Trump.

So, yeah, the USPS is cutting sorting capacity in fairly Democratic areas because that's where their sorting capacity is. You can't cut out 350k sorts per hour in some Post Office in the middle of Wyoming where they get like 100 pieces of mail a day. And obviously, higher-population areas (like the New York City area, California, and Texas) are going to have more capacity to cut.

Is this still shady AF? Yes, absolutely. It is a deliberate attempt to undermine the Post Office from within. But the argument that they are specifically targeting Democrats is unhelpful. This hurts everyone, but making it into a partisan issue is more likely to make the Republicans embrace it just so they can "own the Libs".

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/cOe3soK_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium)

Keldar wrote:

Is this still shady AF? Yes, absolutely. It is a deliberate attempt to undermine the Post Office from within. But the argument that they are specifically targeting Democrats is unhelpful. This hurts everyone, but making it into a partisan issue is more likely to make the Republicans embrace it just so they can "own the Libs".

I'm completely OK with making it a partisan issue precisely because it affects both Democrats and Republicans.

That means when a conservative living in a suburb or rural area notices that their mail isn't being delivered fast enough, that the diabetes or heart medicine they normally--and reliably--get through the mail is late, or when their grandchild who they haven't been able to see for months because of the pandemic didn't get their birthday card and five dollar bill on time that they know who to blame: Trump.

As much as his base is presented as monolithic polls over the past several months have exposed a considerable number of cracks in his support. His supporters aren't as rah-rah as they once were. There are some who believe Trump hasn't handled our COVID-19 response well. There are quite a few who no longer believe that Trump is handling the economy well. There's a sh*tload who believe Trump's push to open the schools is stupid and dangerous.

The point being is that the USPS might just be the straw that breaks the camel's back for some of his supporters. Any votes that can be bled off is a good thing.

And, above all, remember that this is an administration who we already found out purposefully didn't roll out a national response to COVID-19 because the states initially impacted were controlled by Democrats and Trump wanted them to take a political hit. They would 100% f*ck with the USPS to further screw over Democrats. And we already know they are dumb and callous enough not to consider--or care--about the much wider fallout of doing so.

When people have a 90% favorable view of USPS and you mess with it, seems pretty stupid. Attacking the most trusted government agency being is just asking to destroy your own poll numbers.

One of the panel on with Stephanopoulos this morning said the same. Blame Trump and the GOP and make it clear, if you're not getting mail on time it's their fault. Because it clearly is. This is Trump's donor and corporate hack dismantling things on purpose.

And then the ridiculous female Republican commentator said that was great messaging but a complete lie. And I missed most of her response because I was swearing at the TV. There's no way to defend this, I don't know what horsesh*t she tried to use, but this is all on Trump.

This is obviously an electoral strategy. I mean Trump said so himself.

But, it also seems a bit like the standard GOP modus operandi as well. Knee cap a government service with poor leadership. Complain about how much money is being wasted. Cut funding and resources which makes the service even worse. Move to privatize.

If USPS is so popular though, I guess it's a bit like tackling Social Security. The GOP is always flirting with messing with it, but they always back off because they know they're going to get burned.

I hope they get burned here. I wish I were more confident.

OG_slinger wrote:
Keldar wrote:

Is this still shady AF? Yes, absolutely. It is a deliberate attempt to undermine the Post Office from within. But the argument that they are specifically targeting Democrats is unhelpful. This hurts everyone, but making it into a partisan issue is more likely to make the Republicans embrace it just so they can "own the Libs".

I'm completely OK with making it a partisan issue precisely because it affects both Democrats and Republicans.

That means when a conservative living in a suburb or rural area notices that their mail isn't being delivered fast enough, that the diabetes or heart medicine they normally--and reliably--get through the mail is late, or when their grandchild who they haven't been able to see for months because of the pandemic didn't get their birthday card and five dollar bill on time that they know who to blame: Trump.

As much as his base is presented as monolithic polls over the past several months have exposed a considerable number of cracks in his support. His supporters aren't as rah-rah as they once were. There are some who believe Trump hasn't handled our COVID-19 response well. There are quite a few who no longer believe that Trump is handling the economy well. There's a sh*tload who believe Trump's push to open the schools is stupid and dangerous.

The point being is that the USPS might just be the straw that breaks the camel's back for some of his supporters. Any votes that can be bled off is a good thing.

And, above all, remember that this is an administration who we already found out purposefully didn't roll out a national response to COVID-19 because the states initially impacted were controlled by Democrats and Trump wanted them to take a political hit. They would 100% f*ck with the USPS to further screw over Democrats. And we already know they are dumb and callous enough not to consider--or care--about the much wider fallout of doing so.

I think that's Keldar's whole point: keep the focus on things like heart medications, and don't muddy the message with stuff about "they're targeting machines in Democratic areas."

In other words, make the blame partisan in the sense of blaming Republicans, but keep the image people have of the harm non-partisan. Accuse them of harming 'real Americans', not just Democrats.

gewy wrote:

But, it also seems a bit like the standard GOP modus operandi as well. Knee cap a government service with poor leadership. Complain about how much money is being wasted. Cut funding and resources which makes the service even worse. Move to privatize.

A major distinction with the USPS is that it's a self-funded government service and not a tax-funded government service. It made more than $71 billion last year selling stamps and delivering mail and packages.

Congress can't cut its funding and resources because it doesn't control them...which is why Republicans made sure to pass a law that burdened it with much higher healthcare and retirement expenses.

I would be more concerned about this strategy if they didn't loudly announce it months ahead of time. This sort of plan is is not as effective when you're less sublet about it then Snidely Whiplash.

Sadly, I think that’s the lesson they’ll ultimately learn. Not “don’t do this” but instead “be more subtle about it”. How long until we get someone with the same mindset and goals as Trump but sharper, more disciplined, and more charismatic?

I think there is a good chance that hypothetical person would lose a Republican primary to whatever carnival barker is running.

OG_slinger wrote:
Keldar wrote:

Is this still shady AF? Yes, absolutely. It is a deliberate attempt to undermine the Post Office from within. But the argument that they are specifically targeting Democrats is unhelpful. This hurts everyone, but making it into a partisan issue is more likely to make the Republicans embrace it just so they can "own the Libs".

The point being is that the USPS might just be the straw that breaks the camel's back for some of his supporters. Any votes that can be bled off is a good thing.

Yeah, no. His supporters have proven to be immune to reason and logic. Thinking that, “this time” is going to finally do it is a fools errand.

CNN Poll: Biden and Trump matchup tightens as enthusiasm hits new high

The movement in the poll among voters nationwide since June is concentrated among men (they split about evenly in June, but now 56% back Trump, 40% Biden), those between the ages of 35 and 64 (they tilt toward Trump now, but were Biden-leaning in June) and independents (in June, Biden held a 52% to 41% lead, but now it's a near even 46% Biden to 45% Trump divide).

Trump has also solidified his partisans since June. While 8% of Republicans or Republican-leaning independents in June said they would back Biden, that figure now stands at just 4%. And the President has boosted his backing among conservatives from 76% to 85%.

But the survey suggests that Trump's voters are a bit more likely to say that they could change their minds by November (12% say so) than are Biden's backers (7%).

From my fb feed IMAGE(https://i.postimg.cc/fb5mm9tj/Screenshot-20200816-191612-Lite.jpg)

gewy wrote:

This is obviously an electoral strategy. I mean Trump said so himself.

But, it also seems a bit like the standard GOP modus operandi as well. Knee cap a government service with poor leadership. Complain about how much money is being wasted. Cut funding and resources which makes the service even worse. Move to privatize.

If USPS is so popular though, I guess it's a bit like tackling Social Security. The GOP is always flirting with messing with it, but they always back off because they know they're going to get burned.

I hope they get burned here. I wish I were more confident.

At least he makes the trains run on time.

I believe I have seen this movie before.

Shadout wrote:

I believe I have seen this movie before.

heh, but to quote the article:

And on the eve of the party conventions, a majority of voters (53%) are "extremely enthusiastic" about voting in this year's election, a new high in CNN polling in presidential election cycles back to 2003.

emphasis mine

New ABC poll. Post VP selection.

Topline
RV Biden +12
LV Biden +10

Among registered voter groups, Biden leads Trump by 8 points in the suburbs, 51-43%, essentially steady since May. Biden's advantage is far bigger in urban areas, 67-29%, where he needs turnout. In rural areas Trump leads by 24 points, down from 47 in March as the pandemic has spread.

Critically, Biden has a 17-point lead among independents, 54-37%, potentially a swing group that Trump won by 4 points in 2016. Whites divide closely, 50-45%, Trump-Biden, compared with Trump +18 points in March; Biden's +45 points among racial and ethnic minorities. And men have moved toward the Democrat; they now divide 51-43%, Biden-Trump. Biden is +16 points among women...

It's an open question whether or not Harris, with her prosecutorial background, can offer Biden assistance on perceptions of handling crime. Informed that she's a former San Francisco district attorney and California attorney general, 32% say they have a more favorable opinion of her, 16% less favorable.

Dude's a POS who defended Trump's Muslim ban who can see the writing on the wall and wants to redeem his public image.

Everyone can rest comfortably knowing he's been working at Google for the past year.

So, one thing I'm really curious about is when/if we will see the rats jumping off of the ship?

I would guess that the moderate republican senators will be first, but will they do anything more than their current strategy of turtling up and hoping nobody notices them?

Will anybody that is currently, meaningfully in Trump's circle defect?

If not, what is their endgame (other than a place in the dictatorship, should the nightmare scenario happen.)

I'm most curious about Barr. He's a craven political hack, but I have to imagine that he must know deep down that Trump is likely on the way out? Is he just lining his pockets and planning on retirement after this, because he doesn't strike me as one of the ones on the plane when Trump flies off to the Black Sea or the UAE?

Look at it this way. The ship in question isn’t the Trump presidency. It’s Trumpism in the Republican Party. And it’s not sinking. It’s just taking on a bit of water. But overall, why would the rats jump off now when this cruise is just getting started?

Barf (I’m leaving this typo) doesn’t seem to enjoy the limelight to me. I expect he will retire and lay low, save for maybe the occasional lecture or op-ed. Maybe he’ll write a book. However, if his innermost prayers are answered, one final shot at serving a Republican President with authoritarian leanings will fall into his lap. Sort of like an old broken down baseball player fantasizing about being called up to the Majors one last time.

I actually think Trumpism will decline.

I view Trumpism as a lot like the second Klan, which was also for a time a reactionary populist movement that had a sizeable following (1/5 of people in Indiana in 20s were in the second Klan) but it's hard to maintain a large following when you are not actually for anything.

And I know a lot of folks are dismissive of demographics as destiny, but given garion's surprise of the current population of white people in America vs what it's going to be in the minority in just 25 to 30 years Trumpism, the Teaparty, the Southern Strategy, whatever you want to call it, just doesn't have a meaningful future on the national level.

Or so I tell myself when I'm trying to going to sleep.