[News] Coronavirus

A place to discuss the now-global coronavirus outbreak.

OG_slinger wrote:
polypusher wrote:
Jayhawker wrote:

What is the crime for purposely allowing thousands to die because you think it would be politically beneficial to you?

Domestic Bioterrorism. Seriously. Charge these f*ckers.

What would the sentence be for 200,000+ counts of manslaughter?

Time served, commuted, if Republicans stay in power

"Wish them well"

Is the Lottery manslaughter? That's where my ethics math gets wibbly wobbly.

JC wrote:

This has been a concern of mine, Sure the kids aren't sick- but how likely are they to infect everyone around them? If this hell bent drive to return kids to school ends up killing all the teachers and staff in schools... What have you gained?

That is a really extreme view. The virus kills less then 1% of those that get affected so it would kill 1% of the teachers and staff, not all of them. There is the issue of mobidities that could come from it and I am not advocating that we re-open the schools, I am firmly in the other camp.

Keldar wrote:

Not even that, but the kids will pass it to each other, who will bring it home to their families, who will all get infected... Just one infected kid showing up at school could end up with hundreds of people sick before we even realize what happened.

This is a more realistic fear. So far they have been saying that children are not nearly as contagious as adults. If this is wrong, it could lead to a serious error if we re-open the schools.

I think you have to define "not nearly". Because even at 10% as infectious (made up number that is more than likely far less than the actual infection rate of children), the disease is pervasive and would not infect any less but just take more time to do it. This is doubly so since we are prone to go into denial and so many are asymptomatic or dismissive of light symptoms.

kazar wrote:
JC wrote:

This has been a concern of mine, Sure the kids aren't sick- but how likely are they to infect everyone around them? If this hell bent drive to return kids to school ends up killing all the teachers and staff in schools... What have you gained?

That is a really extreme view. The virus kills less then 1% of those that get affected so it would kill 1% of the teachers and staff, not all of them. There is the issue of mobidities that could come from it and I am not advocating that we re-open the schools, I am firmly in the other camp.

Death isn't the only issue. Lots of people who have "recovered" aren't really ever going to be normal again. Lung scarring, and lots of vascular damage. Hell it's been causing strokes in some patients. Reduced quality of life, possibly shortened lifespan, we don't really know yet. I don't want this thing anywhere near me or my family.

kazar wrote:
JC wrote:

This has been a concern of mine, Sure the kids aren't sick- but how likely are they to infect everyone around them? If this hell bent drive to return kids to school ends up killing all the teachers and staff in schools... What have you gained?

That is a really extreme view. The virus kills less then 1% of those that get affected so it would kill 1% of the teachers and staff, not all of them. There is the issue of mobidities that could come from it and I am not advocating that we re-open the schools, I am firmly in the other camp.

The average is about 1%, but that includes people of all ages including children. The teachers and staff are at higher risk than just the 1%... and they can survive but spend weeks on a ventilator.

And if you're going on a ventilator, chances are pretty good that you'll never be fully normal again.

kazar wrote:
JC wrote:

This has been a concern of mine, Sure the kids aren't sick- but how likely are they to infect everyone around them? If this hell bent drive to return kids to school ends up killing all the teachers and staff in schools... What have you gained?

That is a really extreme view. The virus kills less then 1% of those that get affected so it would kill 1% of the teachers and staff, not all of them. There is the issue of mobidities that could come from it and I am not advocating that we re-open the schools, I am firmly in the other camp.

sure, I exaggerated with my example, and, as others have noted, we don’t know enough about this virus to truly understand the impact it’s going to have. The cavalier attitude of, “return to school, damn the consequences” is going to end up needlessly murdering more people. Rushing back is NOT the solution.

Stele wrote:
kazar wrote:
JC wrote:

This has been a concern of mine, Sure the kids aren't sick- but how likely are they to infect everyone around them? If this hell bent drive to return kids to school ends up killing all the teachers and staff in schools... What have you gained?

That is a really extreme view. The virus kills less then 1% of those that get affected so it would kill 1% of the teachers and staff, not all of them. There is the issue of mobidities that could come from it and I am not advocating that we re-open the schools, I am firmly in the other camp.

Death isn't the only issue. Lots of people who have "recovered" aren't really ever going to be normal again. Lung scarring, and lots of vascular damage. Hell it's been causing strokes in some patients. Reduced quality of life, possibly shortened lifespan, we don't really know yet. I don't want this thing anywhere near me or my family.

A million times this. We need to full stop quoting death % with this virus. We simply have zero clue what the long term impact of this virus will be. We should all be doing everything possible to avoid this and staying the hell away from anything non essential.

Stele wrote:
kazar wrote:
JC wrote:

This has been a concern of mine, Sure the kids aren't sick- but how likely are they to infect everyone around them? If this hell bent drive to return kids to school ends up killing all the teachers and staff in schools... What have you gained?

That is a really extreme view. The virus kills less then 1% of those that get affected so it would kill 1% of the teachers and staff, not all of them. There is the issue of mobidities that could come from it and I am not advocating that we re-open the schools, I am firmly in the other camp.

Death isn't the only issue. Lots of people who have "recovered" aren't really ever going to be normal again. Lung scarring, and lots of vascular damage. Hell it's been causing strokes in some patients. Reduced quality of life, possibly shortened lifespan, we don't really know yet. I don't want this thing anywhere near me or my family.

I am aware of this, mentioned it many times in this thread. I was only responding to the comment of "killing all the teachers and staff in schools". I think this is not as prevalent as even you make it sound though. The studies I have seen say at worst 10% of the population that get some morbidity caused by COVID-19. Not saying that this is good in any way and I did state that I am not for schools opening.

TheGameguru wrote:

A million times this. We need to full stop quoting death % with this virus. We simply have zero clue what the long term impact of this virus will be. We should all be doing everything possible to avoid this and staying the hell away from anything non essential.

I think the scientists and doctors have more clues then you realize. They have been studying this for four months almost exclusively. We the laymen may have no clue. I saw this MD talking about a study about how COVID affects the brain. It is an interesting watch.

kazar wrote:
TheGameguru wrote:

A million times this. We need to full stop quoting death % with this virus. We simply have zero clue what the long term impact of this virus will be. We should all be doing everything possible to avoid this and staying the hell away from anything non essential.

I think the scientists and doctors have more clues then you realize. They have been studying this for four months almost exclusively. We the laymen may have no clue.

You are kind of taking these phrases unnecessarily literal.

kazar wrote:
Keldar wrote:

Not even that, but the kids will pass it to each other, who will bring it home to their families, who will all get infected... Just one infected kid showing up at school could end up with hundreds of people sick before we even realize what happened.

This is a more realistic fear. So far they have been saying that children are not nearly as contagious as adults. If this is wrong, it could lead to a serious error if we re-open the schools.

There are now reports that this might be, in fact, quite wrong. They've found, for example, that kids younger than 5 have 10 to 100 times the genetic material from the coronavirus in their noses compared to adults. That doesn't necessarily translate into the same being true of school-aged kids, of course, but there's been very little evidence so far that kids transmit the disease any less than adults do.

Coronavirus infected scores of children and staff at Georgia sleep-away camp

The analysis, released Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, details an outbreak at a sleep-away camp in Georgia last month in which 260 children and staffers — more than three-quarters of the 344 tested — contracted the virus less than a week after spending time together in close quarters. The children had a median age of 12. The camp had required all 597 campers and staff members to provide documentation that they had tested negative for the virus before coming. Staff were required to wear masks, but children were not.

That even made news here in Germany.

Just wow... I'm not surprised that there were some cases but you'd think having everyone tested prior would have been worth some amount of prevention. Apparently not.

This is how I’m imagining it going down when schools start back up. Tests are not 100%, take too long for results, and are a singular point in time.

I am absolutely positive we will see a significant increases in all the metrics once schools reopen.

You can also look at how sports are doing right now if you wanted another comparison for school reopening. The only thing that’s been working to prevent infections is the NBA “bubble.” Not only is that approach not feasible for schools, it has some ethical questions around testing availability and the general importance of the NBA that irk me.

I see that the IHME put out new projections. The number of projected deaths by November 1st is now 230,000, up from 200,000 just a few weeks ago.

Their high end projection is 250k deaths which they say would happen if mandates on social distancing are eased...like sending millions of kids back to school.

OG_slinger wrote:

I see that the IHME put out new projections. The number of projected deaths by November 1st is now 230,000, up from 200,000 just a few weeks ago.

Their high end projection is 250k deaths which they say would happen if mandates on social distancing are eased...like sending millions of kids back to school.

Wow. That’s just terrible and horrifying. I wonder what it looks like if you factor in the normal flu season...

OG_slinger wrote:

I see that the IHME put out new projections. The number of projected deaths by November 1st is now 230,000, up from 200,000 just a few weeks ago.

Their high end projection is 250k deaths which they say would happen if mandates on social distancing are eased...like sending millions of kids back to school.

The IHME projections have been worthless and wrong (consistently underprojecting, to be clear) from the start, because all they do is take the existing data and fit projections onto it via some kind of woowoo magic. In fact, they are consistently one of the least accurate models that have been available throughout the pandemic.

What is there to project? Why is this so shocking?
We are at 1000+ deaths a day. 250K deaths is less than 90 days away and that does not include even a partial going back to school.
How long do we expect to be able to have our care workers work at capacity? Months with no breaks? Are you kidding me?

Farscry wrote:
OG_slinger wrote:

I see that the IHME put out new projections. The number of projected deaths by November 1st is now 230,000, up from 200,000 just a few weeks ago.

Their high end projection is 250k deaths which they say would happen if mandates on social distancing are eased...like sending millions of kids back to school.

The IHME projections have been worthless and wrong (consistently underprojecting, to be clear) from the start, because all they do is take the existing data and fit projections onto it via some kind of woowoo magic. In fact, they are consistently one of the least accurate models that have been available throughout the pandemic.

So if the underprojecting model is estimating a high end of 250k deaths by the end of October if America does stupid things (and America is as America does, so we will), that means we're probably looking at 350-400k deaths by the end of the year, because I do not see this slowing down anytime soon with our current behavior.

Meanwhile, the flu killed under 35,000 people in the US during the 2018-2019 season.

The same thing, indeed.

Farscry wrote:
OG_slinger wrote:

I see that the IHME put out new projections. The number of projected deaths by November 1st is now 230,000, up from 200,000 just a few weeks ago.

Their high end projection is 250k deaths which they say would happen if mandates on social distancing are eased...like sending millions of kids back to school.

The IHME projections have been worthless and wrong (consistently underprojecting, to be clear) from the start, because all they do is take the existing data and fit projections onto it via some kind of woowoo magic. In fact, they are consistently one of the least accurate models that have been available throughout the pandemic.

That is not remotely true. And it has become more accurate over time.

LA Times: Op-Ed: My research team makes COVID-19 death projections. Here’s why our forecasts often change

I view projections as hints at trends, and IHME has included a lot assumptions in their projections that people tend to ignore.

The undercounts assumes far more social distancing, and the projections explained that. The numbers came in high when Trump convinced the governors that the economy was more important.

On May 16th Missouri’s curve was moving down, and the death projection was 700+. After we re-opened, it went to about 1700. Now that cases are spiking, it’s up to 2800.

May 16 - 589
June 16 - 882
July 16 - 1113

If we had kept the stay home order in place, we might be at around 700+ deaths right now. But we were too smart for that.

Jayhawker wrote:
Farscry wrote:
OG_slinger wrote:

I see that the IHME put out new projections. The number of projected deaths by November 1st is now 230,000, up from 200,000 just a few weeks ago.

Their high end projection is 250k deaths which they say would happen if mandates on social distancing are eased...like sending millions of kids back to school.

The IHME projections have been worthless and wrong (consistently underprojecting, to be clear) from the start, because all they do is take the existing data and fit projections onto it via some kind of woowoo magic. In fact, they are consistently one of the least accurate models that have been available throughout the pandemic.

That is not remotely true. And it has become more accurate over time.

Yeah. The least accurate one was the "cubic" model cooked up by Kevin Hassett at the Council of Economic Advisers. It turned out to be an Excel spreadsheet that said we'd be down to zero deaths by the middle of May.

Oh look. A student in Indiana, and another in Mississippi tested positive for Covid. For the Indiana student It was their first day back.

Is there a betting pool on how long it will take for the in-person school decisions to be reversed because they’re untenable?

Death count is creeping up on the losses from the Civil War, 364,511 (I don't count deaths of traitors).

They haven't been already?

Germany has some nutters too at least...

About 17,000 people marched in a protest against coronavirus restrictions in central Berlin Saturday. The majority of the demonstrators did not observe the rules of distance and hygiene.

The march, which was named by organizers as "Day of Freedom -- The End of the Pandemic," included anti-vaccine groups and some far-right and neo-Nazi organizations.

A COVID patient goes home after rare double-lung transplant

On July 5, he performed a similar operation on a second COVID patient, Brian Kuhns, 62, from Lake Zurich, Illinois.

Kuhns spent 100 days on life-support machines before receiving the transplant. Before becoming ill, he had thought COVID was a hoax, his wife, Nancy Kuhns, said in a statement issued by the hospital.

Brian Kuhns said, “If my story can teach you one thing, it’s that COVID-19 isn’t a joke.”