Sports and The Pandemic

I'm curious, what's the skepticism towards pro sports in the US being able play between now and the end of the year?

Why wouldn't frequent testing, expanded rosters, and isolation of players who test positive work? It's basically the model that's being used for European soccer leagues, and it seems to be functioning well enough, even in England.

(I'm not trying to pick a fight or argue that it can work, just curious about the factors that are leading people to say it won't work in the US.)

Godzilla Blitz wrote:

I'm curious, what's the skepticism towards pro sports in the US being able play between now and the end of the year?

Why wouldn't frequent testing, expanded rosters, and isolation of players who test positive work? It's basically the model that's being used for European soccer leagues, and it seems to be functioning well enough, even in England.

(I'm not trying to pick a fight or argue that it can work, just curious about the factors that are leading people to say it won't work in the US.)

Europe got the pandemic under control, which made it a lot less likely a player would test positive. Has a player tested positive in the Bundesliga or any other big-5 league since the restart?

The US, well, has not. Say one of the hotel staff contracts it from living their home life and ends up spreading it to players, you could end up with an FC Rostov situation.

And it's not purely about players. Coaches, trainers, general managers, etc. many non-players are of increased risk. Then you have players families. An example is Washington Nationals first baseman Ryan Zimmerman. He hasn't officially opted out of the season yet but has a 3 week old child and his month has MS. For him, playing baseball means he really should not have any contact with his family for the season.

Roke wrote:
Godzilla Blitz wrote:

I'm curious, what's the skepticism towards pro sports in the US being able play between now and the end of the year?

Why wouldn't frequent testing, expanded rosters, and isolation of players who test positive work? It's basically the model that's being used for European soccer leagues, and it seems to be functioning well enough, even in England.

(I'm not trying to pick a fight or argue that it can work, just curious about the factors that are leading people to say it won't work in the US.)

Europe got the pandemic under control, which made it a lot less likely a player would test positive. Has a player tested positive in the Bundesliga or any other big-5 league since the restart?

The US, well, has not. Say one of the hotel staff contracts it from living their home life and ends up spreading it to players, you could end up with an FC Rostov situation.

I was thinking that England is similar to the US, but it's actually not anymore. Their numbers are dropping compared to the US, which is still rising.

I wonder, though, if frequent testing would reduce the likelihood that a bunch of players would test positive at once? I can see how it would be hard if half a team got sick, for sure, but I tend to think the odds of that happening could be reduced.

I'd be more inclined to think the late fall will be tough. Second wave arrives, add in the flu and all that.

Vector wrote:

And it's not purely about players. Coaches, trainers, general managers, etc. many non-players are of increased risk. Then you have players families. An example is Washington Nationals first baseman Ryan Zimmerman. He hasn't officially opted out of the season yet but has a 3 week old child and his month has MS. For him, playing baseball means he really should not have any contact with his family for the season.

That makes total sense that some players might opt out or have to stay away from their families. If we don't aim for a perfect scenario, but accept something less than ideal, I guess wouldn't call that a show stopper.

And to be clear, I'm only considering US pro sports. I don't see how team sports like football could work at the collegiate level.

There is zero chance professional sports start this year. Young professional athletes are, by and large, very wealthy, and part of being that good is an inherent belief you are more or less immortal. I don't care if you tell me the NBA is starting up because players will be in a bubble. There is no way--NO way--players are going to stay in that bubble. It literally takes only one player who decides to slip out and have a night of freedom and it torpedoes everything. Believing a magic bubble is going to allow sports to happen is just delusional.

Godzilla Blitz wrote:

I'm curious, what's the skepticism towards pro sports in the US being able play between now and the end of the year?

One of the country's two major political leanings treating mitigation efforts as an affront to freedom, for starters.

And for some reason, they leagues think Florida is a good place to have these bubbles.

IMAGE(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbtEMz2XkAAI5S2?format=jpg&name=large)

All these plans make sense until you get into the details and start talking to a wide range of athletes. The plans are so bad that I don’t think the leagues are even trying. They are just trying to stay relevant.

Maybe they expected the US to actually flatten the curve, and we’re prepping in case. But people acted like reopening would just bring back everything, when it not only failed to get the economy moving, it set us back months.

We can’t even have empty stadium sports because we won’t fight the virus.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Believing a magic bubble is going to allow sports to happen is just delusional.

I thought magic bubbles were part of the earlier plans, but not the newer plans. Are the major sports still trying to create self-enclosed communities as part of their planning?

I assumed they were now expecting players to test positive, and would follow protocols similar to European soccer when that happens.

EDIT: Here is CBS's overview of the MLB plan. It seems more like the European models than the earlier "isolated communities" models.

Godzilla Blitz wrote:
MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Believing a magic bubble is going to allow sports to happen is just delusional.

I thought magic bubbles were part of the earlier plans, but not the newer plans. Are the major sports still trying to create self-enclosed communities as part of their planning?

I assumed they were now expecting players to test positive, and would follow protocols similar to European soccer when that happens.

NHL and NBA are creating bubbles. NBA in Disney World and the NHL hasn't decided but will split between two locations (Vegas, Toronto, and Edmonton are the choices).

Vector wrote:
Godzilla Blitz wrote:
MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Believing a magic bubble is going to allow sports to happen is just delusional.

I thought magic bubbles were part of the earlier plans, but not the newer plans. Are the major sports still trying to create self-enclosed communities as part of their planning?

I assumed they were now expecting players to test positive, and would follow protocols similar to European soccer when that happens.

NHL and NBA are creating bubbles. NBA in Disney World and the NHL hasn't decided but will split between two locations (Vegas, Toronto, and Edmonton are the choices).

Interesting. Got it, thanks.

Godzilla Blitz wrote:
MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Believing a magic bubble is going to allow sports to happen is just delusional.

I thought magic bubbles were part of the earlier plans, but not the newer plans. Are the major sports still trying to create self-enclosed communities as part of their planning?

I assumed they were now expecting players to test positive, and would follow protocols similar to European soccer when that happens.

EDIT: Here is CBS's overview of the MLB plan. It seems more like the European models than the earlier "isolated communities" models.

MLB's plan relies on individual players to act responsibly and not do dumb things to risk exposure; this is what is known as "not actually being a plan."

MilkmanDanimal wrote:
Godzilla Blitz wrote:
MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Believing a magic bubble is going to allow sports to happen is just delusional.

I thought magic bubbles were part of the earlier plans, but not the newer plans. Are the major sports still trying to create self-enclosed communities as part of their planning?

I assumed they were now expecting players to test positive, and would follow protocols similar to European soccer when that happens.

EDIT: Here is CBS's overview of the MLB plan. It seems more like the European models than the earlier "isolated communities" models.

MLB's plan relies on individual players to act responsibly and not do dumb things to risk exposure; this is what is known as "not actually being a plan."

Yes, that's a good point, and CBS focuses in on that as being the weakest aspect of the plan.

I could certainly see that going wrong, and I'm sure they would be a number of cases of players doing stupid things, but I'm not convinced it would be problematic on a large scale. I could see loyalty to teammates and not wanting to risk the wrath of fans keeping players in line. I'd not want to be a teammate who tests positive because I went to a party, got Coronavirus, and had to sit out two weeks of a pennant race.

Godzilla Blitz wrote:
MilkmanDanimal wrote:
Godzilla Blitz wrote:
MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Believing a magic bubble is going to allow sports to happen is just delusional.

I thought magic bubbles were part of the earlier plans, but not the newer plans. Are the major sports still trying to create self-enclosed communities as part of their planning?

I assumed they were now expecting players to test positive, and would follow protocols similar to European soccer when that happens.

EDIT: Here is CBS's overview of the MLB plan. It seems more like the European models than the earlier "isolated communities" models.

MLB's plan relies on individual players to act responsibly and not do dumb things to risk exposure; this is what is known as "not actually being a plan."

Yes, that's a good point, and CBS focuses in on that as being the weakest aspect of the plan.

I could certainly see that going wrong, and I'm sure they would be a number of cases of players doing stupid things, but I'm not convinced it would be problematic on a large scale. I could see loyalty to teammates and not wanting to risk the wrath of fans keeping players in line. I'd not want to be a teammate who tests positive because I went to a party, got Coronavirus, and had to sit out two weeks of a pennant race.

Yes, well, let us assume for a moment that tests are reliable, and can immediately tell if someone has any trace of COVID.

Just kidding. We can't assume that, because it's not true. Testing is far from perfect at this point, and a player is going to infect potential an entire team (if not two) with one testing mishap, or a single day of not following protocol. That player who gets COVID? He's infecting his entire team during that race. It literally takes one player doing something stupid, and players do stupid things all the time.

As for hoping players won't want to infect teammates so will behave, the Orlando Pride had to drop out of a tournament because their players didn't behave. I'm going to suggest if athletes involved in something as tight-knit as women's soccer don't behave, MLB athletes don't have a damn chance to get through this.

^Interesting, thanks!

The first test whether you're right and no professional sports will start this year is coming soon: MLS tournament is scheduled to start on July 8. Then MLB on July 23. NBA on July 30. NHL in late July-early August (seems the foggiest of the lot).

I'm most skeptical of the NFL making it through the season (and of any sport making it through November/December). While I think the NFL might start, the other factors seem ominous: the large team sizes, the nature of the sport, the schedule for most teams running through December, and most importantly a likely second wave that meshes with the flu season.

EDIT: Heh, I totally missed that women's pro soccer has already started, with two matches played two days ago.

The NFL season won't play any actual football games. Instead, every week they'll look at each scheduled head-to-head matchup, and whichever team has fewer COVID cases is awarded the win.

*Legion* wrote:

The NFL season won't play any actual football games. Instead, every week they'll look at each scheduled head-to-head matchup, and whichever team has fewer COVID cases is awarded the win.

Ha! And think of the Fantasy Football Leagues. How will they manage?

Godzilla Blitz wrote:

Ha! And think of the Fantasy Football Leagues. How will they manage?

I might actually win, for starters.

Godzilla Blitz wrote:

Ha! And think of the Fantasy Football Leagues. How will they manage?

Point Per Week Healthy.

Basically you're drafting the players you think will be responsible and stay home instead of socializing and getting themselves infected.

Gronk has never had a worse ADP.

Belichick will easily win another Super Bowl with that rule.

The Blue Jays were all set for their training camp to take place in Toronto (even had a plane set up to charter players from the spring training facility in Dunedin) but, thankfully, approval from the federal government didn't come through so they're holding it in Florida.

*Legion* wrote:

The NFL season won't play any actual football games. Instead, every week they'll look at each scheduled head-to-head matchup, and whichever team has fewer COVID cases is awarded the win.

*looks at Florida COVID numbers*

So, looks like the Bucs, Dolphins, and Jaguars are having a normal season this year.

Saw this morning that some players are already opting out of the MLB season due to health concerns as in spreading covid to their families.

Godzilla Blitz wrote:

I could see loyalty to teammates and not wanting to risk the wrath of fans keeping players in line. I'd not want to be a teammate who tests positive because I went to a party, got Coronavirus, and had to sit out two weeks of a pennant race.

Just this week in the Premier League Watford had to drop three players from its match squad because one of them hosted a party and two others attended.

Watford are one point above the relegation zone and the financial difference between the Premier League and the Championship is comfortably nine figures, but... you know... party!

Mr Bismarck wrote:
Godzilla Blitz wrote:

I could see loyalty to teammates and not wanting to risk the wrath of fans keeping players in line. I'd not want to be a teammate who tests positive because I went to a party, got Coronavirus, and had to sit out two weeks of a pennant race.

Just this week in the Premier League Watford had to drop three players from its match squad because one of them hosted a party and two others attended.

Watford are one point above the relegation zone and the financial difference between the Premier League and the Championship is comfortably nine figures, but... you know... party!

Yeah, this is my issue with any kind of an honor system for players; I don't think it's possible to perform at a level required for professional sports if you don't have the kind of confidence to believe you are capable of doing whatever you have the will to do, and are functionally immortal. The kind of mindset required to drive you to be the best is exactly the kind of mindset that is going to lead you to believe that the virus just won't be able to come to you.

Mr Bismarck wrote:
Godzilla Blitz wrote:

I could see loyalty to teammates and not wanting to risk the wrath of fans keeping players in line. I'd not want to be a teammate who tests positive because I went to a party, got Coronavirus, and had to sit out two weeks of a pennant race.

Just this week in the Premier League Watford had to drop three players from its match squad because one of them hosted a party and two others attended.

Watford are one point above the relegation zone and the financial difference between the Premier League and the Championship is comfortably nine figures, but... you know... party!

I'd guess we'll have dozens of cases of players screwing up, especially as things start out. As MilkmanDanimal mentions, there are all sorts of mindsets and the idea that you're an immortal athlete is definitely one of them. The urge to party is strong as well.

I'm not sure, honestly, which way it'll tilt, but I can also see other factors helping to keep players in line. I wonder if teams with strong cohesion and solid captains will be better suited to make it through.

It'll be interesting to see how it plays out, for sure.

Godzilla Blitz wrote:
Mr Bismarck wrote:
Godzilla Blitz wrote:

I could see loyalty to teammates and not wanting to risk the wrath of fans keeping players in line. I'd not want to be a teammate who tests positive because I went to a party, got Coronavirus, and had to sit out two weeks of a pennant race.

Just this week in the Premier League Watford had to drop three players from its match squad because one of them hosted a party and two others attended.

Watford are one point above the relegation zone and the financial difference between the Premier League and the Championship is comfortably nine figures, but... you know... party!

I'd guess we'll have dozens of cases of players screwing up, especially as things start out. As MilkmanDanimal mentions, there are all sorts of mindsets and the idea that you're an immortal athlete is definitely one of them. The urge to party is strong as well.

I'm not sure, honestly, which way it'll tilt, but I can also see other factors helping to keep players in line. I wonder if teams with strong cohesion and solid captains will be better suited to make it through.

It'll be interesting to see how it plays out, for sure.

I mean, for an athlete to make money all they have to do is not smoke a joint or drink and drive or put their hands on their spouse or...

So following these new rules for that same money should be a piece of cake.

Oh ye of little faith! I’m amazed at how little confidence you all have in the modern professional athlete. I’m sure there will be a good number of idiots, but I guess that I tend to believe that enough of a majority of professional athletes will do the right thing, to the point that the system won’t collapse because of athlete indiscretion. You’ve all got me very curious to see how this will turn out now.

I feel like the larger issue of a growing US pandemic is more of a threat. A “second wave” as temps get colder in the late fall could lead to more restrictive measures again, and that sort of thing would make sports pretty much impossible, again. It’s also possible that our current societal actions could put us in a mess again much sooner than late fall.

Really enjoying the conversation, though. Thanks to all for sharing their thoughts.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:
Mr Bismarck wrote:
Godzilla Blitz wrote:

I could see loyalty to teammates and not wanting to risk the wrath of fans keeping players in line. I'd not want to be a teammate who tests positive because I went to a party, got Coronavirus, and had to sit out two weeks of a pennant race.

Just this week in the Premier League Watford had to drop three players from its match squad because one of them hosted a party and two others attended.

Watford are one point above the relegation zone and the financial difference between the Premier League and the Championship is comfortably nine figures, but... you know... party!

Yeah, this is my issue with any kind of an honor system for players; I don't think it's possible to perform at a level required for professional sports if you don't have the kind of confidence to believe you are capable of doing whatever you have the will to do, and are functionally immortal. The kind of mindset required to drive you to be the best is exactly the kind of mindset that is going to lead you to believe that the virus just won't be able to come to you.

There is exactly one way for the bubbles to work in a major league sport, and even that isn’t foolproof (literally). If the US was under a lockdown like Italy and Spain had. Take away the reason to leave the bubble.

But to expect players not to leave while Americans go to bars to watch games? It’s f*cking clueless. And for fans to complain about what players and owners will or won’t agree to is just hypocritical. Every one of us are making decisions based on our own and our family’s welfare.

I actually think a solid 95% of players will behave. It's just that the 5% who don't will screw the rest. Half-assing mitigation strategies for sports leagues is going to work just as well for them as it has for the U.S. in general.

Everybody has to do the right thing, or everybody else is screwed.