NFL 2020: Draft

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Saints negotiating a one-year deal with Jameis Winston.

Seems logical; he's got a long history of throwing passes to people in a Saints uniform.

Meanwhile, Cam is still unemployed. What strange times we live in.

Enix wrote:
MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Saints negotiating a one-year deal with Jameis Winston.

Seems logical; he's got a long history of throwing passes to people in a Saints uniform.

Meanwhile, Cam is still unemployed. What strange times we live in.

Just did a pointless scan of Winston's stats on PFR; he should have gone to the Panthers. 15 INTs to Carolina, 10 to NO, 9 to Atlanta.

15 picks to Carolina. In only 9 games. JFC.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:
Enix wrote:
MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Saints negotiating a one-year deal with Jameis Winston.

Seems logical; he's got a long history of throwing passes to people in a Saints uniform.

Meanwhile, Cam is still unemployed. What strange times we live in.

Just did a pointless scan of Winston's stats on PFR; he should have gone to the Panthers. 15 INTs to Carolina, 10 to NO, 9 to Atlanta.

15 picks to Carolina. In only 9 games. JFC.

So what is the over/under on picks if he ever starts a game against Tampa?

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Saints negotiating a one-year deal with Jameis Winston.

Seems logical; he's got a long history of throwing passes to people in a Saints uniform.

Career passes completed to Saints:

Jameis Winston: 10

Taysom Hill: 7

Hrdina wrote:
MilkmanDanimal wrote:
Enix wrote:
MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Saints negotiating a one-year deal with Jameis Winston.

Seems logical; he's got a long history of throwing passes to people in a Saints uniform.

Meanwhile, Cam is still unemployed. What strange times we live in.

Just did a pointless scan of Winston's stats on PFR; he should have gone to the Panthers. 15 INTs to Carolina, 10 to NO, 9 to Atlanta.

15 picks to Carolina. In only 9 games. JFC.

So what is the over/under on picks if he ever starts a game against Tampa?

One of his issues (and there are many) is he gets over-excited in big games and plays terribly in the first quarter. If he ever plays against the Bucs, he might get those 30 INTs before halftime.

IMAGE(http://www.thedrawplay.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/2020-04-27-JordanLoveDrafted.png)

Lol. So aggressive but accurate I guess.

I listened to one Packers podcast and they were recording live during the 6th round.

To hear them talk themselves into the first 3 picks and also slide into despair as they live recorded some of the 6th round was hysterical.

Some theories are that the Packers either think the current roster/talent is very close and they were investing in the future OR they actually know how much of a 9-7 team this might actually be and they are getting ready for the quick rebuild.

Time will tell. I can swallow the no WR pick. If the Packers are going to control the line and grind out drives sure. Play action with Rodgers can work with sub optimal WRs if they are actually just open for miles.

I'm still terrified how badly the team was sliced and diced by the 49ers on the ground and ILB play. This hasn't really been addressed in FA or the draft.

Mike Daniels is still a FA but not sure if he left on good terms.

Alright, some more draft thoughts:

- The NFL is a copycat league, and in this draft, you can really point to some teams that are copying the Kansas City model, and a few that are imitating San Francisco.

KC's AFC West rivals, Denver and Not-Oakland, loaded up on WRs. Oakland took Ruggs as the first WR off the board, then added two more fast WRs in the 3rd round. Denver took Jeudy as the draft's second receiver, and added KJ Hamler in the 2nd. Lamb sliding to #17 surprised people, but the top 3 WRs all went in order of their 40 times.

Philly joined in on following the KC model by not only drafting 3 receivers with sub-4.50 40 times, but also trading for a veteran WR that was (and is trying to again be) an Olympic track athlete, Marquise Goodwin. (Leaving out their QB pick for now). That's 4 guys who all clock in the 40 faster than CeeDee Lamb (and faster than the team's draft pick last year, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, for that matter). Add in the fact that the team still has Desean Jackson (who was supposed to be their speed last year, but missed almost the entire season with a core injury), and the Philly receiver depth chart is going to be filled with speed, even if not all 4 of the new arrivals make the final roster.

Whether or not any of these speedsters can catch a football is another question. But the approach these teams are taking seems to be: bring in as many as you can, and see who hangs onto a football well enough to play.

Green Bay and Carolina, on the other hand, look like teams eyeing the 49ers squad that steamrolled over them in 3 lopsided blowouts. Carolina's doing it on the defensive side of the ball, spending their 1st and 2nd rounders on the defensive line. Pair them with last year's 1st Brian Burns, and the group's veteran Kawaan Short, and they've got 1st and 2nd round investments on all four starting spots on the defensive line (yes, four, as the team transitions back to 4-3 this year after a 3-4 base scheme last season). They want to be able to get after passers with their front four. Even if I have some skepticism about Derrick Brown's ability to rush the passer, he's certainly more athletic than the run of the mill nose tackle, so there's some high-end potential there. They built out their secondary depth with 4 picks in rounds 3-7. I wouldn't be surprised to see a large part of this year's draft class get real playing time in 2020.

Green Bay, meanwhile, looked like a somewhat misguided attempt at drafting pieces for a 49ers-style run game. Leaving the Love pick aside (which clearly is them following their own model at that position), the team grabbed AJ Dillon, creating a three-headed backfield with Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. Next, they took TE Josiah Deguara, who looks like he won't actually be a tight end at all, but a pass-catching fullback a la Kyle Juszczyk. They later took three interior offensive linemen in a row. Matt LaFleur is a Kyle Shanahan disciple, and that collection of picks looks like a team trying to emphasize a ground game like the one they got bludgeoned with, rather than putting more weapons at the disposal of Aaron Rodgers and the passing game. The irony, though, is that the Niners built their backfield entirely out of free agents (both the veteran and the rookie undrafted variety), while investing repeated high draft picks on receivers (in three straight years: a 2nd on Pettis, a 2nd and 3rd on Deebo and Jalen Hurd, and a 1st on Aiyuk this year).

- Now let's talk about those QB picks I glossed over. Philadelphia's is a little easier to excuse, given the lower investment cost and the fact that they brought home a 10-man draft class with a small army of day 3 traded-for picks. Hurts as a prospect is kind of hard to love, with numbers that look better than his actual production. His completion percentage hides some poor ball placement that talented WRs turned into catches anyway. What he brings to the table with his legs, though, might have a lot to do with where he was taken. Philly might have some Taysom Hill sized ideas of what Hurts can do. That said, the high investment also tells me the team continues to be worried about Carson Wentz's long-term ability to stay healthy, and they see the QB2 position as one that merits significant investment

Green Bay's pick of Jordan Love, meanwhile, is harder to swallow. First of all, there's Love himself, who threw 17 INTs last year while playing in the Mountain West (though, annoyingly, none during the team's victory in Fresno last season). He put a lot of unforced errors on tape, and hasn't shown the kind of game mastery or anticipation that would scream "1st round pick". He's got great physical tools though, which, you know, is where the Blaine Gabbert comparison comes in. You can understand a team feeling like they can build him up from scratch in an environment where it's known ahead of time he won't be expected to see the field in his first 2 years, but even still, it's a high investment that basically has to work out perfectly for it to provide good returns.

Contrast this with the New Orleans Saints, who continue to do everything in their power to maximize their Drew Brees window, while addressing their QB future in other ways. The team rehabilitated Teddy Bridgewater back into a starter, but Brees decided to stick around longer, so the team just signed Jameis Winston for another attempt at QB rehab. They also snapped up Taysom Hill off waivers from, ahem, Green Bay in 2017, who they have turned into a utility player while also trying to develop him as a QB. They've been creatively working their QB depth chart without sacrificing their ability to get every bit out of Drew Brees they can.

I think the Indianapolis Colts did exactly what the Packers should have done: draft a guy like Jacob Eason in round 3. The Colts signed Philip Rivers this offseason, who they probably can only expect a couple of years out of, and they went and got a big-armed project with a 3rd instead of a 1st.

- A little side note on Green Bay: according to Peter King, the team tried to trade up in the 2nd round to draft a WR, but gave up after they could find no takers. They could have taken a WR at the end of round 1 and drafted someone like Eason with their late 2nd, or even traded down from that 2nd into the early 3rd and taken Eason before Indy.

- More interesting trades that didn't happen: OJ Howard and Leonard Fournette. Tampa reportedly had an overly high asking price on Howard, while the Jags actively shopped Fournette on day 2, including to Tampa before Tampa drafted RB Ke'Shawn Vaughn instead.

- The story of day 3 was the retirement of Joe Staley, and the Niners scooping up Trent Williams as his immediate replacement. You can tell how desperate Washington had gotten that they traded with a Shanahan. Williams, of course, was drafted by Mike Shanahan back in 2010. He played under Mike and Kyle for his first 4 seasons, where he developed into a Pro Bowl left tackle. Obviously a known scheme fit in San Francisco. The 49ers tried to trade for Williams last season after their top three offensive tackles went down with injury, but Washington GM Bruce Allen refused to consider it.

- Dallas had one of the best drafts, catching CeeDee Lamb as he slid to #17, and also finding a replacement for retired center Travis Frederick in Wisconsin's Tyler Biadasz with a compensatory pick at the very end of round 4. Between those two, they got a corner that fits their press-man scheme in round 2 (Trevon Diggs) and a 1-gap pass rushing nose tackle (Neville Gallimore) in round 3. Diggs should start immediately, while Gallimore should see a lot of early rotation time with the team's over-30 free agent defensive tackles, Dontari Poe and Gerald McCoy.

- The Rams made 9 selections in this draft, and did not address their crumbling offensive line until their final pick, a compensatory 7th. They instead invested another high pick on a RB (Cam Akers), and spent their other 2nd round pick on a fast but low-performing (and old, 24 years old already) wide receiver Van Jefferson, two picks before the Jets scooped up Denzel Mims. Jefferson was expected by most to be a day 3 pick.

- Add one to the "GM Bill O'Brien" file: the Texans reportedly were trading pick #90 to the Lions, and the Lions backed out last second, leading to a hurried selection of OLB Jonathan Greenard, and O'Brien appearing angry and yelling at the phone when the cameras cut to him following the pick. O'Brien denied the story, claiming they were "messing with Zoom" (despite O'Brien yelling at the phone rather than the computer) and that he was "not agitated" (despite looking rather agitated).

- Kyle Shanahan said Brandon Aiyuk was one of the 6 players they considered with the #13 pick. According to him, Aiyuk and Lamb were the team's top two WR grades. Their grading is of course based on fit in the unique Shanahan scheme, but there's another interesting wrinkle: Matt Barrows in The Athletic wrote about how the 49ers felt that what Alabama told them about Reuben Foster as a person did not match up with who Foster was after he was drafted, and that they may not trust the Alabama staff to give accurate information about their outgoing players.

- New England continues to do Bill Belichick things: pick up a bunch of picks, and draft versatile guys that can fill multiple roles. It doesn't feel like there's a lot in terms of impact players here, but everything points to the Patriots not worrying too much about their 2020 record, opting instead to lay the groundwork for their post-Brady rebuild. A 5th round kicker is a little easier to swallow when you drafted 10 players, because there's only so many roster spots available for rookies, and the Pats aren't a Miami-like empty roster.

- I always feel like I'm biased against Seattle's drafts, but I usually hate Seattle's drafts, and it seems I'm usually more right than wrong in those opinions. It's almost shocking how little the team has gotten from some of its top draft capital over the last few years, while Russell Wilson heroically keeps the team competitive through sheer force of will. Of the last 6 1st and 2nd round picks they've spent, only one has even managed to become a starter, and it's the one pick I didn't think was crap: DK Metcalf. With this year's picks, I don't really love 1st round LB Jordyn Brooks or 2nd round DE Darrell Taylor, although I expect both will actually get on the field with regularity, which is more than we can say about a lot of those other recent 1sts and 2nds. They did finally take an offensive linemen in the 3rd in Damien Lewis, who definitely has a path to the field, with mostly aging free agents and one of those failed 2nd round picks ahead of him. They spent a 4th rounder on a gigantically tall but limited TE, which seems weird for how crowded that position already is on their depth chart. I would have spent that pick on any of the 3 interior offensive linemen that ended the 4th round a few picks later, doubling up on mid-round guards. Not my most disliked Seattle draft ever, but I feel like shoddy drafting is what keeps the Seahawks as just one of many NFC playoff-caliber teams instead of a multi-titled dynasty.

- Atlanta and Denver win the draft because they took Fresno State players. Netane Muti ended up not being the first Fresno player drafted, as the Falcons took off-ball LB Mykal Walker in the first round. The 49ers win undrafted free agency for signing Fresno State running back Josh Hokit, who will transition to fullback and attempt to fit the Juszczyk mold as a guy who can operate with the ball and win in the blocking game (Hokit was also a college wrestler).

- The Jags made one pick that got me excited, and that's 4th round OT Ben Bartch. Bartch played at St. John's and is going to be making a huge leap in terms of the quality of his opponents, but he was dominant at the Senior Bowl with one of the highest win rates of any offensive linemen there. After missing tackle prospects in earlier rounds, they managed to bail themselves out by scooping up an undervalued guy. Seems like a guy that can begin inside at guard and move back out to tackle with some NFL experience under his belt.

- Jags didn't take a QB until 6th rounder Jake Luton, which put to rest any question of whether or not Minshew is the guy in 2020. I still expect that the team will sign Andy Dalton once he becomes a free agent. Dalton is still under contract in Cincy but they're not paying him $17.7m in 2020, and cutting him brings zero cap hit or dead money. Dalton played in new Jags OC Jay Gruden's system in Cincy, and would be the ideal veteran backup and guy to have in the QB room for Minshew. I also expect Jay Gruden to become the Jaguars head coach once all is said and done.

EDIT - Couple more drafts:

- No fun nonsense from Dave Gettleman. Giants draft an immediate starting OT in Andrew Thomas, and then grab two mid-round guys, OT Matt Peart and OG Shane Lemieux, to develop behind a couple of 30+ year old veterans, Nate Solder and Kevin Zeitler. Xavier McKinney slid into round 2 due to positional value, but unlike Landon Collins, McKinney is a legitimate deep safety option, not only a box safety.

- Cleveland did kind of the same thing as the Giants. Took one of the two true (IMO) franchise left tackles in the draft, and even got the better one at #10 in Wills. Also took a 5th round guard (slash center in this case) who has some near-future starting potential. And they got a 1st round talent in round 2 in the form of their own safety pick, Grant Delpit. Nothing really to make fun of here.

-

*Legion* wrote:

Alright, some more draft thoughts:

...

Green Bay and Carolina, on the other hand, look like teams eyeing the 49ers squad that steamrolled over them in 3 lopsided blowouts. Carolina's doing it on the defensive side of the ball, spending their 1st and 2nd rounders on the defensive line. Pair them with last year's 1st Brian Burns, and the group's veteran Kawaan Short, and they've got 1st and 2nd round investments on all four starting spots on the defensive line (yes, four, as the team transitions back to 4-3 this year after a 3-4 base scheme last season). They built out their secondary depth with 4 picks in rounds 3-7. I wouldn't be surprised to see a large part of this year's draft class get real playing time in 2020.

I think that's exactly right. But that's a lot of rookies getting a lot of playing time - most of the secondary and the D-line. That's probably not a recipe for winning football, esp with Covid *and* a brand new coaching staff.

But then there's the O-line, which is a disaster. Carolina's current O-line includes a LT who missed most of last season due to blood clots, another LT who missed most of last season due to concussions and a LT tackle who was so unimpressive that the Panthers tried to play the guy with all the concussions (which is part of the reason he had so many). There's also the center who gave up more QB pressures than any center in the league. Right now, the Panthers have only one guy listed as a guard (whom the Panthers picked up from Cincy). There's another guy listed as "OL," I guess because special teams players don't really have traditional positions.

I understand that best available > need. But, man, Teddy Bridgewater is going to need some pass pro if he's going to make it to Week 5.

Anyway, great writeup. I take it you enjoyed this year's draft?

Enix wrote:

Anyway, great writeup. I take it you enjoyed this year's draft?

Something happened in February, can't quite remember what, just remember I'd black out anytime the topic of football would come up for a couple months there. The draft is the only thing that made me feel normal again.

Enix wrote:

That's probably not a recipe for winning football, esp with Covid *and* a brand new coaching staff.

I don't think Carolina is competitive in 2020, no. This is a get-cap-healthy year with the insane dead cap from eating all the contracts this year. Get a look at Teddy and see if he's good enough to keep and build around, or if a new QB is warranted.

Really, same sort of thing as their expansion buddy Jacksonville, the other team in the $30+ million dead cap club. Clear the books, give Minshew a season to see if he's got a future or not, and pick up some foundational pieces to long-term build, though sadly not targeting O-line to the degree I wanted.

Seems like a fair assessment of the Packers draft.

As a fan if you are trying to chug the kool aid it falls apart when you go back to the fact the Packers traded up to get Love. It was one thing to go first round QB it's another when you give up a 4th also. Maybe they wanted Love that badly but if someone snags him first you still have options to grab a QB later or crazy concept wait until 2021.

Change the outcome to no trade. Same picks. Deguara going in the 4th instead and a WR in the 3rd? Not too shabby maybe. Deguara in the 3rd still and a 4th round WR ok.

Instead they made the trade which puts all other decisions in doubt imo.

Alright this is just piling on for poor Packers fans, but I've seen a couple comparisons made, but nobody putting it all together like this:

- Measures about 6-3 to 6-4

- Weighs around 225 to 230 pounds

- Regressed rather than improved in final year in college

- Highlight reel of top shelf NFL throws, lowlight reel of WTF throws

- Dual threat run ability with around a 4.7 40

- Mental game needs significant rebuilding at NFL level, not prepared for immediate action

- Has great throwing mechanics but somehow struggles to turn that into accurate throws

Which QB scouting report would Packer fans recognize these lines from?

Spoiler:

A) Jordan Love
B) DeShone Kizer
C) Brett Hundley
D) All of the above

Every team's most likely post draft cut via Bill Barnwell

Lots of WRs in there.

Agree with the assessment on Williams also. Although the Packers took so many interior linemen one might be getting the boot.

Still want them to add a DT and WR if possible or keep some powder ready for the trade deadline.

Pettis for Brate. Do it, Bucs.

Bashaud Breeland was arrested for driving without a license, with an open alcoholic beverage, with possession of marijuana, and resisting arrest.

The four horsemen of a traffic stop!

That's why it's so hard to repeat at SB champs. Everything has to break your way and, well, the Breeland thing doesn't count as something that breaks your way.

Reports are coming out in D.C. that they could have traded Trent Williams last year at the trading deadline for a first. Bruce Allen, former pseudo GM is such a Fkn idiot. So glad that petty little baby is gone.

Ego Man wrote:

Reports are coming out in D.C. that they could have traded Trent Williams last year at the trading deadline for a first. Bruce Allen, former pseudo GM is such a Fkn idiot. So glad that petty little baby is gone.

We heard rumors to the same effect last year when it was happening. You've left out the best part though: this latest report is coming straight from Ron Rivera, who, being the new Washington coach and all, is inside the building and privy to this information. So now it's gone from rumor to pretty much confirmation.

I am pretty sure I know at least one team that would’ve given their first for him.

Jeez. Bruce Allen should be sued for career malpractice. That deal was so bad it could have been written by Donald Trump.

IMAGE(https://www.bardown.com/polopoly_fs/1.951196.1513968358!/fileimage/httpImage/image.png_gen/derivatives/landscape_620/michael-scott.png)
-Bruce Allen

Bruce Allen was the Bucs' GM from 2004 to 2008; the only player in those drafts to hit a Career AV of 50 was Aqib Talib, who got it for other teams. His first-round picks were Talib, Gaines Adams, Davin Joseph, Cadillac Williams, and Michael Clayton. Sabby Piscitelli was picked in the 2nd round. His drafting was awful, he signed bad free agents, the team was terrible, and he essentially dismantled a team that had won the Super Bowl two years before he showed up, and drove the roster into the ground.

And he not only got another job, but he's been continuing to wreck that other team without consequences. He fails constantly, yet keeps getting jobs. He's the Blaine Gabbert of front offices.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:

Sabby Piscitelli

My heart soars at his name being mentioned in our threads again.

UpToIsomorphism wrote:

I am pretty sure I know at least one team that would’ve given their first for him.

Yeah Cleveland was definitely one of the teams with a 1st round offer on the table.

That's twice now that the Browns offered a 1st round pick in a trade, only for the player to get traded to San Francisco for cheaper. They offered a 1st for Garoppolo, but the Patriots took SF's 2nd instead.

At least this time, the declined offer was in the prior year, and Cleveland chose to pull themselves out of the trade market the second time around by filling their spot another way.

Still, two Cleveland 1sts losing out to San Francisco 2nd, 3rd, and 5th is just mindblowing. And with neither discount trade involving Bill O'Brien.

*Legion* wrote:
UpToIsomorphism wrote:

I am pretty sure I know at least one team that would’ve given their first for him.

Yeah Cleveland was definitely one of the teams with a 1st round offer on the table.

That's twice now that the Browns offered a 1st round pick in a trade, only for the player to get traded to San Francisco for cheaper. They offered a 1st for Garoppolo, but the Patriots took SF's 2nd instead.

At least this time, the declined offer was in the prior year, and Cleveland chose to pull themselves out of the trade market the second time around by filling their spot another way.

Still, two Cleveland 1sts losing out to San Francisco 2nd, 3rd, and 5th is just mindblowing. And with neither discount trade involving Bill O'Brien.

It truly goes to show how little regard for the Cleveland front office folks have. It's an earned reputation.

This might be the stupidest 2020 draft story I've seen: Sean Payton is flexing because he traded for a pick so he could grab a nothingburger QB that Carolina apparently wanted.

Taysom Hill already sucks so you dumped a 6th round pick to get Taysom Hill 2.0? No wonder the Saints have managed to get to only one Super Bowl during the Tiny Brees era. What a dolt.

Enix wrote:

This might be the stupidest 2020 draft story I've seen: Sean Payton is flexing because he traded for a pick so he could grab a nothingburger QB that Carolina apparently wanted.

Taysom Hill already sucks so you dumped a 6th round pick to get Taysom Hill 2.0? No wonder the Saints have managed to get to only one Super Bowl during the Tiny Brees era. What a dolt.

Wow. That is a dick move.

I hate how the NFL does undrafted free agency. The sane, orderly draft gives way to the unhinged chaos of free-for-all UDFA signings.

If nothing else, I'd establish a rule that forces a 24-hour waiting period before UDFAs can accept offers. Give them time to actually hear all the offers from teams that want them, instead of making decisions in the midst of the feeding frenzy.

That, or I would return the draft to a 12-round format, significantly reducing undrafted free agency. Bring the time between picks on those final rounds way down, and it would still be less hurried and chaotic than undrafted free agency.

So, the Pats are going to pick up Dalton and Belichick is going to win a Super Bowl with him just to spite Brady, right?