NFL 2020: Draft

FYI - Sling TV is free right now between 5pm and midnight Eastern each day for the foreseeable future. It includes NFL Network so could watch draft coverage there next couple days. https://www.sling.com/deals/happy-hour

The sniping between *Legion* and Milkman wrote:

*stuff from the 2016*

I didn't realize until the Rams' Super Bowl run that Goff's Pop Warner practice field is across the street from the house I grew up in.

*Legion* wrote:

There's no "if" to Gronk still having lingering injuries, it's just a question of how much, and can his body even get back to the performance levels he need to be Gronk. A lot of players can't regain the same speed or strength after time away from the game.

It's not a slam dunk that he's still going to be the Gronk of old in 2020. In fact, I think it's highly unlikely he's going to be a 70+ snap per game player again. There's a wide range of what Gronk might be this year, but I pretty much guarantee it will look different from even 2018 Gronk, who rarely even came off the field (of the games he played in 2018, there were only 3 in which his offensive snap count percentage was below 90%).

A few reasons I said that.

1. Brady has worked with a lot of tight ends and the only other one he consistently gelled with was Ben Watson. You could argue Hernandez but his role was more receiver than TE. Bennett was pretty solid but only flourished when Gronk was out.

2. 9 years of working together vs not 9 years working together. (This is more of a Brady thing)

3. The main factor in retirement was pretty much playing the whole 2018 season in pain. 2018 season was a shadow of prior seasons but he still manages 47 rec with 682 yards and one of the best blocking tight ends. A slowed 70% Gronk is not a #3 tight end.

4. To tag the thread

No, it's not a slam dunk but apparently he's feeling pretty well which was never the case in 2018. He also has the likelihood that a lot of players will be shaking the rust off depending on how the schedule is affected by all this.

I watched Gronk play live in 2018 and he was a shadow of his former self. Hopefully time to recuperate and heal will have him back to 90% of peak form (which is still probably better than any current tight end, except George Kittle). I'm curious if the new terms of the CBA which increased the allowable THC levels for a player were a contributor to Rob returning? He is a noted advocate, spokesperson, and investor in cannabis.

Looking forward to the draft tonight! I'll probably be hanging around in a Discord voice channel and streaming the draft there if anyone wants to pop bye. I'm deep off the edge into analytics NFL Draft Twitter and the like and curious to see who this year's Clelin Ferrell is. (Rumor is teams love Justin Jefferson so I could see him being WR1 taken, or at least top-15)

This draft may be historical as the first one in which Roger Goodell isn't booed off the stage.

Brett Kollmann's epic mock draft video, which is about as long as the draft itself:

staygold wrote:

I watched Gronk play live in 2018 and he was a shadow of his former self. Hopefully time to recuperate and heal will have him back to 90% of peak form (which is still probably better than any current tight end, except George Kittle). I'm curious if the new terms of the CBA which increased the allowable THC levels for a player were a contributor to Rob returning? He is a noted advocate, spokesperson, and investor in cannabis.

The new CBA will reduce the testing period from four months to the two weeks at the start of training camp. A new threshold for a positive test will also be put in place, raising the allowed amount of THC from 35 nanograms to 150.

From here.

All you gotta do is be clean for that two week testing period, which is so small I don't know why they even bother.

garion333 wrote:
staygold wrote:

I watched Gronk play live in 2018 and he was a shadow of his former self. Hopefully time to recuperate and heal will have him back to 90% of peak form (which is still probably better than any current tight end, except George Kittle). I'm curious if the new terms of the CBA which increased the allowable THC levels for a player were a contributor to Rob returning? He is a noted advocate, spokesperson, and investor in cannabis.

The new CBA will reduce the testing period from four months to the two weeks at the start of training camp. A new threshold for a positive test will also be put in place, raising the allowed amount of THC from 35 nanograms to 150.

From here.

All you gotta do is be clean for that two week testing period, which is so small I don't know why they even bother.

Edit: Never mind, reading comprehension fail.

The point of the testing is purely symbolic; if they don't test at all, somebody can do the WON'T SOMEBODY THINK OF THE CHILDREN freakout, so, essentially, the NFLPA gets what they want (no testing) and the NFL gets what they want (pretending to give a crap).

It's not testing, it's just marketing.

EvilDead wrote:
garion333 wrote:
staygold wrote:

I watched Gronk play live in 2018 and he was a shadow of his former self. Hopefully time to recuperate and heal will have him back to 90% of peak form (which is still probably better than any current tight end, except George Kittle). I'm curious if the new terms of the CBA which increased the allowable THC levels for a player were a contributor to Rob returning? He is a noted advocate, spokesperson, and investor in cannabis.

The new CBA will reduce the testing period from four months to the two weeks at the start of training camp. A new threshold for a positive test will also be put in place, raising the allowed amount of THC from 35 nanograms to 150.

From here.

All you gotta do is be clean for that two week testing period, which is so small I don't know why they even bother.

Edit: It looks like you can't get suspended for any drug anymore, even roids?

Well, don't know about steroids, but the idea isn't to punish and take away money from guys. The idea is to take positive action and address the underlying issues by putting them through substance abuse, counseling, etc. programs. I applaud them for taking a harm reduction view instead of the more draconian suspension and penalty as that has a tendency of exasperating the issue in a lot of folks.

How seriously the NFL takes any of this is the real question.

EvilDead wrote:

Edit: It looks like you can't get suspended for any drug anymore, even roids?

Garion's link says 6 weeks for first failed steroids test, season long for 2nd.

PEDs are still suspensions. Weed is not a suspension anymore.

Dammit, you guys caught / quoted me before my edit after reading the article in full!

Even testing for weed just seems dumb now.

Enix wrote:

Meanwhile, I'm liking the mock drafts that have Carolina taking Isaiah Simmons at No. 7. Granted, Carolina has a lot of huge holes (D-line, O-line, DBs, TE), but that would go a long way to shoring up the defense that, based on who's still on the roster, will be giving up 60-70 points per game next season.

Simmons is a special player, and it's only relative positional value that has him not being a top 5 kind of guy. Not a QB, OT, edge rusher, or CB.

Dude is 6-3, 238 pounds and he had the second fastest Combine 40 at his position. Wait, no, not at his position of linebacker. He would have had the second fastest 40 of cornerbacks.

He's a LB/S hybrid like Derwin James, but more of a LB while James is more of a S.

Carolina wouldn't happen to know anything about LB/S hybrid sorts of players, would they?

*Legion* wrote:

Carolina wouldn't happen to know anything about LB/S hybrid sorts of players, would they?

The old regime, sure. Which I guess Marty Hurney is part of. No idea what Matt Rhule thinks about defense in general or defensive players who didn't play for him at Temple or Baylor.

The other guy who keeps popping up in Panthers' mocks is Derrick Brown, the DT from Auburn. Apparently he's a beast in the middle and an all-around good guy. Carolina definitely needs D-line help.

The mocks that make me nervous are the ones that have Carolina picking Justin Herbert. Life's too short to root for a team with a starting QB with consistency and decision-making issues. Plus Carolina already has Will Grier, so that roster spot is taken.

I love the NFL Draft. Everyone is outwardly so confident in their mocks and player evaluations. GMs become so sure of their own intelligence that they make insane picks. Owners make demands that others know will tank a franchise. Random last-second player drama. A kicker!

Helps that nearly every player is expected to make an impact almost immediately. The MLB draft is so long term that they don't even broadcast it and teams basically just give up part way through. NHL is filled with dinosaurs choosing players they've improperly scouted and fall into "big man shoot hard must pick". There's a good chance the top NBA is complete trash and will instagram live on of their teammates cheating on their fiance and the rest of the draft is practically nothing after the 15th pick.

Enix wrote:

The other guy who keeps popping up in Panthers' mocks is Derrick Brown, the DT from Auburn. Apparently he's a beast in the middle and an all-around good guy. Carolina definitely needs D-line help.

Brown is the best nose tackle of the draft, but I don't really like him as a top 10 prospect. He's great for sure as a two-down tackle, but on 3rd down, while he has the power to collapse pockets, I don't think he's explosive enough to be a pass rush threat at the NFL level. He didn't show pass rush finishing ability in college.

He's definitely a beast that can disrupt inside, but for a top 10 pick, I need a guy that can make things happen on 3rd down, guys like Buckner, Cox, etc. (Also Donald, of course, but you can't expect anyone else to be that). Not sure Brown is that guy. Not certain enough for a top 10 pick. Which means you can pencil him right in for pick #9 tonight.

*Legion* wrote:
Enix wrote:

The other guy who keeps popping up in Panthers' mocks is Derrick Brown, the DT from Auburn. Apparently he's a beast in the middle and an all-around good guy. Carolina definitely needs D-line help.

Brown is the best nose tackle of the draft, but I don't really like him as a top 10 prospect. He's great for sure as a two-down tackle, but on 3rd down, while he has the power to collapse pockets, I don't think he's explosive enough to be a pass rush threat at the NFL level. He didn't show pass rush finishing ability in college.

He's definitely a beast that can disrupt inside, but for a top 10 pick, I need a guy that can make things happen on 3rd down, guys like Buckner, Cox, etc. (Also Donald, of course, but you can't expect anyone else to be that). Not sure Brown is that guy. Not certain enough for a top 10 pick. Which means you can pencil him right in for pick #9 tonight.

Giants?

Vector wrote:

I love the NFL Draft. Everyone is outwardly so confident in their mocks and player evaluations. GMs become so sure of their own intelligence that they make insane picks. Owners make demands that others know will tank a franchise. Random last-second player drama. A kicker!

Helps that nearly every player is expected to make an impact almost immediately. The MLB draft is so long term that they don't even broadcast it and teams basically just give up part way through. NHL is filled with dinosaurs choosing players they've improperly scouted and fall into "big man shoot hard must pick". There's a good chance the top NBA is complete trash and will instagram live on of their teammates cheating on their fiance and the rest of the draft is practically nothing after the 15th pick.

Something something homeless man said "pick Manziel". Those are my favorite moments.

And Bortles. Forever Bortles.

*Legion* wrote:
Enix wrote:

The other guy who keeps popping up in Panthers' mocks is Derrick Brown, the DT from Auburn. Apparently he's a beast in the middle and an all-around good guy. Carolina definitely needs D-line help.

Brown is the best nose tackle of the draft, but I don't really like him as a top 10 prospect. He's great for sure as a two-down tackle, but on 3rd down, while he has the power to collapse pockets, I don't think he's explosive enough to be a pass rush threat at the NFL level. He didn't show pass rush finishing ability in college.

He's definitely a beast that can disrupt inside, but for a top 10 pick, I need a guy that can make things happen on 3rd down, guys like Buckner, Cox, etc. (Also Donald, of course, but you can't expect anyone else to be that). Not sure Brown is that guy. Not certain enough for a top 10 pick. Which means you can pencil him right in for pick #9 tonight.

No arguing with you there. But if Brown's there and Simmons isn't, I suspect they might take Brown. Sometimes you prepare for the next war by fighting the last one, and the Panthers D-line was awful last season.

Brown's definitely a better pick than Herbert, unless they get Herbert to do some Taysom Hill BS. You gotta get some snaps out of your first-round picks!

garion333 wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

(stuff about Derrick Brown)

Giants?

Amazingly, that actually seems to be a possibility.

Even though they just spent a 1st round pick on Dexter Lawrence.

Even though they traded for and have franchised Leonard Williams (who is disputing his franchise tag designation as a defensive tackle instead of a defensive end, even though in 2019 he only took about 1/3 of his snaps from end, the rest from tackle - and he actually took snaps at end LESS often after the trade to the Giants).

And yet, Tony Pauline wrote last month that "Even though they selected Dexter Lawrence in the first round of last year’s draft and gave away a third-round pick for Leonard Williams, whom they subsequently franchised, Auburn’s Derrick Brown seems to be the leader in the clubhouse for [general manager Dave] Gettleman’s Giants."

And Bortles. Forever Bortles.

It was so much worse because that was the draft with Derek Carr and Davante Adams in it. The best Fresno State combo ever. Jags top two picks were QB and WR, each taken before those two respective guys, and they chose Bortles and Marqise Lee.

Enix wrote:

Brown's definitely a better pick than Herbert, unless they get Herbert to do some Taysom Hill BS. You gotta get some snaps out of your first-round picks!

I just don't see Carolina being dumb or desperate enough to be in the Herbert picture at all. Before even giving Teddy a shot?

No, I can see Carolina being in the picture for Tristan Wirfs, who they can slide in at guard and then maybe consider in the future for tackle if Okung doesn't stick around. Or Simmons, of course. Or a CB like CJ Henderson, because I'm looking at Carolina's CB depth chart right now, and I refuse to believe Corn Elder is actually a real name.

Ahh, time to put in my to-go food order for Draft Day!

Reminds me of a few years ago. I picked up food wearing a Bortles jersey.

Guy that brought me my food said, "you watching the draft? You must be, wearing that jersey."

IMAGE(https://media.giphy.com/media/26AHARmYK0VScFZNS/giphy.gif)

*Legion* wrote:

wearing a Bortles jersey.

Geez, and I thought the Jamarcus jersey was bad . . .

What’s the recommenced draft coverage to watch? I was looking to see what Mina Kimes will be on but couldn’t figure it out.

NFL Network.

Never ESPN.

*Legion* wrote:

He's definitely a beast that can disrupt inside, but for a top 10 pick, I need a guy that can make things happen on 3rd down, guys like Buckner, Cox, etc. (Also Donald, of course, but you can't expect anyone else to be that). Not sure Brown is that guy. Not certain enough for a top 10 pick. Which means you can pencil him right in for pick #9 tonight.

NFL Draft night. Where General Manager's fall in love with transcendent large men in the middle of the Defensive Line. I think DL is going the way of running back. They're replaceable parts, plug a fourth rounder in and he'll give you 80-90% of the top-10 guy, cost you 150% less, AND you can use your first round pick on someone useful.

I mean just look at the first round DT's from 2016 and earlier, count their Superbowls:
2016 | #12 | Sheldon Rankins NO
2016 | #27 | Kenny Clark GB
2016 | #29 | Robert Nkemdiche AZ
2016 | #30 | Vernon Butler CAR
2015 | #6 | Leonard Williams NYJ
2015 | #12 | Danny Shelton CLE
2015 | #32 | Malcolm Brown NE
2015 | #6 | Leonard Williams NYJ
2014 | #13 | Aaron Donald STL
2014 | #29 | Dominique Easley NE
2013 | #17 | Star Lotulelei CAR
2013 | #23 | Sharrif Floyd MIN
2013 | #28 | Sylvester Williams DEN
2012 | #11 | Dontari Poe KC
2012 | #12 | Fletcher Cox PHI
2012 | #14 | Michael Brockers STL
2011 | #3 | Marcell Dareus BUF
2011 | #13 | Nick Fairley DET
2011 | #21 | Phillip Taylor CLE
2011 | #30 | Muhammad Wilkerson NYJ
2010 | #2 | Ndamukong Suh DET
2010 | #3 | Gerald McCoy TB
2010 | #10 | Tyson Alualu JAX
2010 | #26 | Dan Williams AZ

7 of drafts
24 players
2 Super Bowls (Malcolm Brown lol, Fletcher Cox)

To be fair, if I did this with most, heck all, positions the numbers would play out similarly. But the number of wild misses at DT far outweighs the hits. There's two Hall of Famers in that list, at least 6 who aren't even playing or are rotation players, and a bunch of guys. Defensive Tackle is one of those positions where it's easy to get wow'd by the athleticism of a 350 lb man running a 40 time a second faster than your average desk jockey. But they don't move the needle on wins. How many of these guys drew Derrick Brown-esq scouting reports? I'd guess at least half.

The real lesson here for me is definitely to trade down and get picks. Because you're not smarter than anyone else. You'll fail way more than you'll hit. You just need more darts to throw at the board.

Is that the one with Kevin Hart? Because that’s a hard no.

*Legion* wrote:
garion333 wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

(stuff about Derrick Brown)

Giants?

Amazingly, that actually seems to be a possibility.

Even though they just spent a 1st round pick on Dexter Lawrence.

Even though they traded for and have franchised Leonard Williams (who is disputing his franchise tag designation as a defensive tackle instead of a defensive end, even though in 2019 he only took about 1/3 of his snaps from end, the rest from tackle - and he actually took snaps at end LESS often after the trade to the Giants).

And yet, Tony Pauline wrote last month that "Even though they selected Dexter Lawrence in the first round of last year’s draft and gave away a third-round pick for Leonard Williams, whom they subsequently franchised, Auburn’s Derrick Brown seems to be the leader in the clubhouse for [general manager Dave] Gettleman’s Giants."

And Bortles. Forever Bortles.

It was so much worse because that was the draft with Derek Carr and Davante Adams in it. The best Fresno State combo ever. Jags top two picks were QB and WR, each taken before those two respective guys, and they chose Bortles and Marqise Lee.

Sheeeeeit, you just reminded me Davante Adams was a 2nd round pick as I totally forgot.

Guys who can generate pressure from inside are worth their weight in gold.

Two-gapping space filling DTs no longer have that kind of value in today's game.

There are some good names missing from your list because they were drafted with their position listed as DE. DeForest Buckner for example, because the Niners were a 3-4 team at the time he was picked, but as a 4-3 player, he's a DT.

But yeah. You can get two-down DTs for cheap. You better get a pass rushing difference maker if you use a high pick on a DT in 2020.