[News] Coronavirus

A place to discuss the now-global coronavirus outbreak.

Jayhawker wrote:

And no, our governor still sees no reason to force people to stay home.

Must be colluding with our governor up here in Iowa, who sees no reason to issue a stay home order either. Gotta shut down those abortions though!

ClockworkHouse wrote:

160,000 confirmed cases in the US. 3,000 deaths. Almost 1,000 deaths in NYC alone.

765,000 cases globally. Every time I look, it's climbed faster than I expected it to, even knowing that it's accelerating.

24 hours later, and we have 871,000 global cases and 4,000 deaths in the US.

100,000 new cases in a day is a milestone we've discussed here before, as is 1,000 new deaths in the US in a day. I didn't expect we'd hit both at the same time.

Jayhawker wrote:

And no, our governor still sees no reason to force people to stay home.

Yup, Ronnie D down here in Florida has been a good little president's doggy too; holding off as much as he can in RE to COVID-19.

Somewhat 'amusing' given we're frequently labeled the the retirement state. You'd think, even from a money/tax perspective, that at some point it'd be solid policy not to let your senior citizens die off since wealth transfer, by way of asset relocation, is sort of the state's gravy.

To be 'fair', he did pawn off onto the state's Surgeon General the issuing of a "health advisory" to the elderly...

The news tonight opened with how this was more deaths than 9/11. And it's a fair point because it's like Trump had 2 months warning about an attack but ignored it. He's a much worse failure than W.

It's also interesting because we spent trillions on a supposed war on terror. But Trump was crying about 1 billion for masks being too much last week.

Recreational Villain wrote:
Jayhawker wrote:

And no, our governor still sees no reason to force people to stay home.

Yup, Ronnie D down here in Florida has been a good little president's doggy too; holding off as much as he can in RE to COVID-19.

This is baffling to me. Florida has the fifth highest number of confirmed cases in the country. As a standalone unit, it's #18 globally. But nonessential businesses remain open, there's no stay at home order, and it sounds like beaches are being closed only on a county-by-county basis?

What the f*ck is DeSantis thinking?

Currently the advice in Australia is to stay home where possible, but states are allowed to choose how much they enforce that. In my state we have this:

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/ZGh29Pp.png)

So it's almost a lockdown, but with some extra shops open (e.g., clothings shops and things are still open) and everybody is allowed to exercise.

Australia seizes faulty coronavirus protective equipment imported from China

Authorities have begun seizing Chinese-made faulty face masks and other protective clothing that is being exported to Australia to help halt the spread of coronavirus.
One law enforcement official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, estimated the ABF had already seized 800,000 masks with a combined value of more than $1.2 million on the Australian market.

"We started seeing this stuff arriving roughly three weeks ago when news of the pandemic was really taking off," the official told the ABC.

"The dodgy material is coming via air cargo because there is a backlog of sea freight at Australian ports."

Several European governments have rejected Chinese-made equipment designed to combat the coronavirus outbreak in recent days.

Thousands of testing kits and medical masks are below standard or defective, according to authorities in Spain, Turkey and the Netherlands.

The Dutch health ministry announced it had recalled 600,000 face masks on March 28.

The equipment arrived from a Chinese manufacturer on March 21 and had already been distributed to frontline medical teams.

Dutch officials said the masks did not fit and their filters did not work as intended, even though they had a quality certificate.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying has rejected suggestions the country's exports were faulty.

"A large number of Chinese manufacturers are working around the clock to help other countries save lives," she said yesterday.

CNN: Asia may have been right about coronavirus and face masks, and the rest of the world is coming around

In the coming weeks, if they have not already, your government is likely to begin advising you to wear a face mask to protect against coronavirus.

For those living in Asia, such announcements will be a vindication of a tactic that has been adopted across much of the region since the beginning of the crisis and appears to have been borne out by lower rates of infection and faster containment of outbreaks.

Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), appeared before lawmakers. Asked if people should wear masks, he had a straightforward answer: "No."
Now he's not so sure. On Monday, Redfield said told NPR that the CDC was reviewing its guidelines and may recommend general mask use to guard against community infection. It's likely only a matter of time before other mask holdouts, most prominently the World Health Organization (WHO), follow suit.
Writing last month, Adrien Burch, an expert in microbiology at the University of California, Berkeley, noted that "despite hearing that face masks 'don't work,' you probably haven't seen any strong evidence to support that claim. That's because it doesn't exist."
In fact, there is evidence of the exact opposite: that masks help prevent viral infections like the current pandemic.
Burch pointed to a Cochrane Review -- a systemic analysis of published studies on a given topic -- which found strong evidence during the 2003 SARS epidemic in support of wearing masks. One study of community transmission in Beijing found that "consistently wearing a mask in public was associated with a 70% reduction in the risk of catching SARS."

Anyone know if car repair and gas stations are listed as vital services? The law isn't entirely clear on this.

And where are they going to come from? There aren't enough to go around for front line medical staff, let alone anyone else.

Paleocon wrote:

Anyone know if car repair and gas stations are listed as vital services? The law isn't entirely clear on this.

They are in the UK. However I appreciate that might not be much help to you in the US!

The way production is ramping up I assume we’ll be swimming in them eventually. I can’t buy them now but, after this is over, surplus masks will probably become our generation’s ET cartridge.

Sorbicol wrote:

And where are they going to come from? There aren't enough to go around for front line medical staff, let alone anyone else.

Paleocon wrote:

Anyone know if car repair and gas stations are listed as vital services? The law isn't entirely clear on this.

They are in the UK. However I appreciate that might not be much help to you in the US!

I think they mean any mask not just n95 masks. For example using a bandanna or a homemade napkin mask. They wont work as good but they are better than nothing.

Paleocon wrote:

Anyone know if car repair and gas stations are listed as vital services? The law isn't entirely clear on this.

Gov. Hogan's executive order referred to a list of critical infrastructure created by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency to help businesses determine if they are essential or non-essential.

"Retail fuel centers such as gas stations and truck stops, and the distribution systems that support them," and "Automotive repair, maintenance, and transportation equipment manufacturing and distribution facilities (including those who repair and maintain electric vehicle charging stations)" are on DHS's list of critical infrastructure businesses.

ClockworkHouse wrote:

What the f*ck is DeSantis thinking?

DeSantis is probably thinking that Trump's endorsement was absolutely vital to him winning in 2018 and, above all, he doesn't want to do anything that might upset Trump, like treat the pandemic as something more serious than what Trump thinks it is.

OG_slinger wrote:
ClockworkHouse wrote:

What the f*ck is DeSantis thinking?

DeSantis is probably thinking that Trump's endorsement was absolutely vital to him winning in 2018 and, above all, he doesn't want to do anything that might upset Trump, like treat the pandemic as something more serious than what Trump thinks it is.

What is he going to do now that Trump reversed himself?

Paleocon wrote:
OG_slinger wrote:
ClockworkHouse wrote:

What the f*ck is DeSantis thinking?

DeSantis is probably thinking that Trump's endorsement was absolutely vital to him winning in 2018 and, above all, he doesn't want to do anything that might upset Trump, like treat the pandemic as something more serious than what Trump thinks it is.

What is he going to do now that Trump reversed himself?

I don't really believe Trump reversed himself. I believe enough people around him saw how terrible sh*t was getting and pressured him to say things were serious. But it's only a matter of time until he goes off script and pulls another "very fine people on both sides" and says things aren't that bad and that none of this is his fault.

DeSantis will just pull a Trump himself, saying no one could have known how bad things were going to get and blame New Yorkers for spreading the disease while congratulating himself for taking the bold action of setting up checkpoints to catch those wily New Yorkers. And DeSantis has already moved to politically protect himself by doing things like setting up a drive-thru COVID-19 testing facility in The Villages.

Some "good" news

Iceland lab's testing suggests 50% of coronavirus cases have no symptoms

Some of the revelations have been stark. Although fewer than 1% of the tests came back positive for the virus, the company's founder Dr. Kári Stefánsson told CNN that around 50% of those who tested positive said they were asymptomatic, confirming multiple studies that show that asymptomatic, or mildly symptomatic, people have played an important role in spreading the virus.
"What it means in my mind, is that because we are screening the general population, we are catching people early in the infection before they start showing symptoms," Stefánsson said.
"Keep in mind that the screening is now randomized, but voluntary so there is some bias in the data," the Directorate of Health said in a statement, adding that a "randomized screening program has started and a blood serum screening for antibodies is planned."

I say good because that means that half the people who get it will be ok. So ok they don't even show symptoms. Obviously this is still incredibly dangerous but knowing that 1 out of 2 people won't even be sick enough to notice is a bit comforting.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/

Is not as quick to update as the live trackers but that's fine.

It has adjusted it's initial 81k deaths to 93k.

The top range is 177k.

Scary stuff.

farley3k wrote:

Some "good" news

Iceland lab's testing suggests 50% of coronavirus cases have no symptoms

Some of the revelations have been stark. Although fewer than 1% of the tests came back positive for the virus, the company's founder Dr. Kári Stefánsson told CNN that around 50% of those who tested positive said they were asymptomatic, confirming multiple studies that show that asymptomatic, or mildly symptomatic, people have played an important role in spreading the virus.
"What it means in my mind, is that because we are screening the general population, we are catching people early in the infection before they start showing symptoms," Stefánsson said.
"Keep in mind that the screening is now randomized, but voluntary so there is some bias in the data," the Directorate of Health said in a statement, adding that a "randomized screening program has started and a blood serum screening for antibodies is planned."

I say good because that means that half the people who get it will be ok. So ok they don't even show symptoms. Obviously this is still incredibly dangerous but knowing that 1 out of 2 people won't even be sick enough to notice is a bit comforting.

This is very bad. Because at least if you have symptoms, you are staying home (in theory) and not infecting people. But if a lot of people have been infected, but show no symptoms so feel they can go out to the grocery store, etc, they are infecting other people.

Also dangerous in that they'll spread it unknowingly.

farley3k wrote:

I say good because that means that half the people who get it will be ok.

Seems like it doesn’t say those people won’t get symptoms. just that they were tested early.
They might not be OK.

“What it means in my mind, is that because we are screening the general population, we are catching people early in the infection before they start showing symptoms," Stefánsson said.

oops, crossed in posting with Shadout and should have read the link myself. I usually do but eh, these days...

If we had reliable antibody blood tests, then the no-symptoms people would be able to go about their business once they are no longer infectious. (We also need to know when they stop being infectious, of course.)

This isn't a pandemic that will kill 100% of humanity (those are rare) so there's an upper limit on deaths. Unfortunately, "limiting the dead to a number higher than WWI and Vietnam combined" is cold comfort...still, maybe it does help to know that even in the darkest worst-worst-worst case scenario, ~90% of us will survive.

Of course, it'll take a while to figure out how many people died:

The Atlantic: The Interminable Body Count: We may never know how many people the coronavirus kills: “It sounds like it could be totally obvious—just count body bags. It’s not obvious at all.”

Elaine Godfrey: So right now, we’re hearing that more than 3,000 people have died from the virus in the U.S. The government is estimating that, in the best-case scenario, the total will be somewhere from 100,000 to 200,000 deaths. How confident can we be about those numbers?

John Mutter: The difficulty with estimating fatalities from natural disasters depends on what sort of a disaster it is. Earthquakes are pretty clear, because the typical cause of death is blunt trauma. There’s this old adage that earthquakes don’t kill people, buildings kill people, and it’s pretty true. Your house falls down.

When you die of coronavirus, what do you actually die of? [In some cases] your lungs fill up with fluid, just like it’s pneumonia. So do you die of the virus, or do you die of pneumonia?

This happened a lot in Katrina and with [other] hurricanes: People who already had conditions—heart conditions, respiratory conditions—[their] deaths could result from the exacerbation of those existing conditions. How do you count somebody who died of a heart attack during a natural disaster? Do you call it a disaster death or a heart-attack death? There’s no rules. None. And particularly from country to country.

The [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] here has rules. They’re very conservative; you’ll always get the minimum number from the CDC. And they're very clear what their criteria are. What you'll hear about disaster deaths from the CDC is only those that can be absolutely verified as being directly related to that disaster. Then they'll list all the heart-attack victims. They might call them indirect, but they won't call them directly related to the disaster. So it's more of a subtle business than you might think.

In this case, because many people are using emergency rooms and hospitals, it’s crowding out people who would normally be at emergency services. People who have chronic heart conditions, nothing to do with coronavirus, are crowded out of the emergency rooms because there's no space for them. So the death rate will rise with people like that. Do you count them?

The thing that concerns me is that that 100,000 - 240,000 deaths is based on a model that assumes everyone will be following best-case staying-at-home...I'm concerned that once states like Florida and Texas start getting visible that things will go from bad to worse.

Meanwhile, we're still not testing anywhere near enough in the US:

The Seattle Times: Limited testing in senior care facilities in Washington leaves them ‘flying in the dark’ against coronavirus

[...] It is an increasingly familiar ordeal at facilities across the state. But unlike many nursing homes, Careage of Whidbey knew it had a widespread outbreak — at least 27 residents and 20 employees — because it tested everyone who lives and works there, even though only two residents showed symptoms at the time.

NYT: Coronavirus Spreads in Veterans’ Home, Leaving ‘Shuddering Loss for Us All’: The mayor of Holyoke in Massachusetts confronted the superintendent of the Holyoke Soldiers’ Home after hearing rumors that infections were spreading.

But by then, Mr. Morse said, the damage was far more than he had imagined: In a matter of five days, eight veterans had died, apparently without being reported to either state or local officials. Others were sick with the coronavirus; staff members were too.

And it's not like we didn't see this coming, in detail:
NYT: White House Economists Warned in 2019 a Pandemic Could Devastate America: A study published last fall went unheeded. One of its authors now says economic shutdowns to fight the coronavirus could last up to eight months.

And the US federal government still not actually serious about fighting this:
NYT: Wartime Production Law Has Been Used Routinely, but Not With Coronavirus: The Defense Production Act has been invoked hundreds of thousands of times in the Trump years. But with the pandemic, the president sees it as a “break the glass” last resort.

So don't be surprised when 240,000 is the low count.

OG_slinger wrote:
Paleocon wrote:
OG_slinger wrote:
ClockworkHouse wrote:

What the f*ck is DeSantis thinking?

DeSantis is probably thinking that Trump's endorsement was absolutely vital to him winning in 2018 and, above all, he doesn't want to do anything that might upset Trump, like treat the pandemic as something more serious than what Trump thinks it is.

What is he going to do now that Trump reversed himself?

I don't really believe Trump reversed himself. I believe enough people around him saw how terrible sh*t was getting and pressured him to say things were serious. But it's only a matter of time until he goes off script and pulls another "very fine people on both sides" and says things aren't that bad and that none of this is his fault.

DeSantis will just pull a Trump himself, saying no one could have known how bad things were going to get and blame New Yorkers for spreading the disease while congratulating himself for taking the bold action of setting up checkpoints to catch those wily New Yorkers. And DeSantis has already moved to politically protect himself by doing things like setting up a drive-thru COVID-19 testing facility in The Villages.

i.e.: blame Jews.

~mod~

Gentle reminder to please stop flagging each other's posts over heightened emotions, there isn't anything going on to warrant moderator interaction for the last several flags submitted from this thread. It may do some folks some good to step away to regain calm. Please remember that thinking someone is wrong on the internet isn't grounds for moderator intervention and not listed in our code of conduct as actionable.

Everyone is angry, scared, and frustrated. Justifiably so. Taking that out on your fellow forum members by reporting them, and by extension requiring us to scour a fast moving thread for context isn't a charitable use of anyone's time. Thanks!

The [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] here has rules. They’re very conservative; you’ll always get the minimum number from the CDC. And they're very clear what their criteria are. What you'll hear about disaster deaths from the CDC is only those that can be absolutely verified as being directly related to that disaster. Then they'll list all the heart-attack victims. They might call them indirect, but they won't call them directly related to the disaster. So it's more of a subtle business than you might think.

Are the numbers from US only the ones that are confirmed to be directly caused by Covid-19?
As in dying from respiratory problems. If someone dies from a heart attack, but have the coronoa virus, are they still counted too? If anyone knows. Haven't been able to find an answer.

Shadout wrote:
The [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] here has rules. They’re very conservative; you’ll always get the minimum number from the CDC. And they're very clear what their criteria are. What you'll hear about disaster deaths from the CDC is only those that can be absolutely verified as being directly related to that disaster. Then they'll list all the heart-attack victims. They might call them indirect, but they won't call them directly related to the disaster. So it's more of a subtle business than you might think.

Are the numbers from US only the ones that are confirmed to be directly caused by Covid-19?
As in dying from respiratory problems. If someone dies from a heart attack, but have the coronoa virus, are they still counted too? If anyone knows. Haven't been able to find an answer.

From the CDC COVID-19 page:

CDC wrote:

Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.

"Presumptive positive" means a patient has tested positive by a local public health laboratory, but results are still pending confirmation at a CDC lab.

I don't know how or if private testing labs are reporting their data. I assume they're going through the relevant state health department.

The true mortality rate won't ever be known, but there will be studies that will use previous years as a baseline and come up with a better estimate of COVID-19 deaths (as well as deaths that could be attributed to our swamped medical system). Unfortunately, these studies won't happen for years.

Paleocon wrote:

Anyone know if car repair and gas stations are listed as vital services? The law isn't entirely clear on this.

Yes, they are essential. If I wasn’t hiding from the virus, I would be out driving auto parts to repair shops and fleet managers.

Yes, remember the long process of estimating the death toll from hurricane Maria? Official toll 64; estimates from excess deaths 1000-4600. Get ready for the sequel, airing through 2021-22.