NFL 2019: Divisional Weekend!!

Prederick wrote:
garion333 wrote:

The Niners seem like the WORST matchup for the Vikings. Their DL is gonna make Cousins see phantom pressure for the rest of his life.

Seriously. They're going to be the kind of team Gettleman wishes he could put together. Frankly, Niners of Vikes is the single absolute, stone-cold lock.

Watch the Vikes win by 10 now, of course.

I've got the Vikings in all four games.

Chairman_Mao wrote:
*Legion* wrote:

Josh McDaniels is in Cleveland to interview for the head coaching job, and his wife is on the trip with him.

Not sure if that means a hiring is imminent, or if it means the wife is so skeptical of Cleveland that she has to see it herself before they can even consider it.

I was going to say Shurmur is available... again.

Are Josh and his wife on Twitter? Can we tweet this video at them?

Reporter on the floating lake balloons not being visible anymore: "No one's quite sure where the balloons went, but at least they are no longer posing a threat to fish and wildlife, and they are not littering the lake."

If you can't see them they don't exist. Nope, definitely not at the bottom. That's science right there.

MilkmanDanimal wrote:
EvilHomer3k wrote:

I just think Cousins is better than Jimmy G.

And people said I was mean to Legion.

Was writing a post to statistically prove Kirk Cousins is better than Jimmy G (aside: they're practically tied in Football Outsider DVOA ranking)

But came across this interesting nugget. Of the starting QB's who would you guess would have the highest rushing DVOA? Lamar Jackson? He's not even top-5

Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement

  • Ryan Tannehill - 48.8%
  • Aaron Rodgers - 36.0%
  • Pat Mahomes - 28.2%
  • Tom Brady - 21.9%
  • Baker Mayfield - 20.4%
  • Lamar Jackson - 19.0%

Russell Wilson was effectively the replacement level player in DVOA

This would absolutely seem to support the hypothesis that
Passing > QB Scrambles > Designed QB Runs > Running by anyone else > Runs by Sony Michel

Lamar is brilliant. But even a brilliant, transcendent, multi-generational runner cannot "out run" their scheme or come close to their efficiency and value passing the ball (Lamar was second overall in passing DVOA)

A reminder that McDanield (and maybe his wife) are from the Canton, OH area. I’m not saying he will get the job, or he will take the job if offered, but they all know what it’s like to be in Ohio.

UpToIsomorphism wrote:

A reminder that McDanield (and maybe his wife) are from the Canton, OH area. I’m not saying he will get the job, or he will take the job if offered, but they all know what it’s like to be in Ohio.

So you are saying he probably won't take the job then.

Jayhawker wrote:
UpToIsomorphism wrote:

A reminder that McDanield (and maybe his wife) are from the Canton, OH area. I’m not saying he will get the job, or he will take the job if offered, but they all know what it’s like to be in Ohio.

So you are saying he probably won't take the job then.

They're using the Browns for a free trip to visit the family.

*Legion* wrote:
EvilHomer3k wrote:

and I just think Cousins is better than Jimmy G.

Career playoff records:

Kirk Cousins: 1-2, 0 Super Bowl rings
Jimmy Garoppolo: 7-1, 2 Super Bowl rings

Checkmate

Yeah, he's got the same post-season stats as the Patriots camera crew.

Tom Brady in Super Bowls:

With Garoppolo: 2-0
Without Garoppolo: 4-3

Undefeated with Jimmy, barely above .500 without him

Checkmate

Josh McCown played the second half of the wildcard game with his hamstring torn from the bone. He'll be undergoing surgery on Tuesday.

Pretty gutty performance by him when you think of how much scrambling and running (for a 40 year old) he was doing in that game.

I'm about his age and I probably move about as well as he did last week with my intact hamstrings.

There has to pain killers involved, right?

*Legion* wrote:

Josh McCown played the second half of the wildcard game with his hamstring torn from the bone. He'll be undergoing surgery on Tuesday.

Pretty gutty performance by him when you think of how much scrambling and running (for a 40 year old) he was doing in that game.

Sure but Jimmy G tore his ACL, MCL, and LCL in both legs in his first super bowl win and he was still able to hold TB12s clipboard.

Spoiler:

Please note that McCown is a badass. I take nothing away from that guy.

staygold wrote:
MilkmanDanimal wrote:
EvilHomer3k wrote:

I just think Cousins is better than Jimmy G.

And people said I was mean to Legion.

Was writing a post to statistically prove Kirk Cousins is better than Jimmy G (aside: they're practically tied in Football Outsider DVOA ranking)

But came across this interesting nugget. Of the starting QB's who would you guess would have the highest rushing DVOA? Lamar Jackson? He's not even top-5

Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement

  • Ryan Tannehill - 48.8%
  • Aaron Rodgers - 36.0%
  • Pat Mahomes - 28.2%
  • Tom Brady - 21.9%
  • Baker Mayfield - 20.4%
  • Lamar Jackson - 19.0%

Russell Wilson was effectively the replacement level player in DVOA

This would absolutely seem to support the hypothesis that
Passing > QB Scrambles > Designed QB Runs > Running by anyone else > Runs by Sony Michel

Lamar is brilliant. But even a brilliant, transcendent, multi-generational runner cannot "out run" their scheme or come close to their efficiency and value passing the ball (Lamar was second overall in passing DVOA)

QB rushing DVOA has massive sample size issues. Tannehill is propped up by having run for 4 TDs on 25 carries.

Lamar Jackson rushed the ball 176 times. If he scored as frequently as Tannehill he would've scored 30 TDs. Instead, he passed for that many TDs on less passes than most, so that's why his DVOA in passing is so damn high. He was efficient and scored a ton.

I'm not sure what you're trying to argue about passing, we all know and agree that passing is the most efficient, but you can't as of yet pass all the time. What makes Baltimore so dangerous to defend is that they can run and pass in so many different ways each play. You can only defend so much turf and if the QB can also run like the wind, it's especially problematic.

What makes KC so dangerous is they have a wizard at QB with speed all over the place that gets used in both passing and running. Another "who you gonna cover?" conundrum since Mahomes can deliver the ball, oh, anywhere.

Poor Sony Michel. I like the guy, but between NE's all over the place RB usage and whatever is up with his body, he's never going to live up to his draft position. I'd take him over Penny though.

All home teams for me. Hopefully the games are more competitive than they look like they're going to be.

All these obscure stats stating that rushing is somehow inferior to passing can't get around the fact that rushing teams outscored passing ones this year. In the end of the game, the only thing that matters is who can put up more points.

I don't think traditional running teams exist in the NFL anymore. Maybe Baltimore and the Bills got close but they were both on either end of the spectrum in offense. Teams run when they have the lead and pass when they are behind (someone pointed this out in the last thread). So bad teams usually end up with a ton of garbage time passing stats. Second half running is part of the reason that Sony Michel was great last year but sucked this year. I think first quarter / half plays give a much better picture of the offensive mindset.

In today's NFL I would never draft a running back first round. Saquon Barkley is otherworldly but it's not like he was winning Giants games. What makes Lamar so special is that he is a QB that can run as well as some of the best RB's. It's a defensive game plan / personal nightmare.

Edit: It also helps that he is a wizard with the fake hand off in play action. Harbaugh might even call it deceptive

Edited again: I'm not arguing that running is bad but that the difference between a first round running back and a fourth round running back isn't enough to justify the pick. Spend that extra draft capital on the offensive line instead. Then you are aiding passing and running.

*Legion* wrote:

Josh McCown played the second half of the wildcard game with his hamstring torn from the bone. He'll be undergoing surgery on Tuesday.

Pretty gutty performance by him when you think of how much scrambling and running (for a 40 year old) he was doing in that game.

Oof. His post-game presser was heart breaking, you could tell he knew this was it for him, his last game. There was a shot of everyone coming off the field where everyone thought Ertz had doubled over, but right around the corner it was McCown and Ertz was there comforting him. I feel bad for the guy that his last game was one like that.

As for passing versus rushing, I am on team Legion in acknowledging you need a mixture. You can't rely on just one. I think people get distracted because passing often results in "the big plays", but one of the primary reasons Eagles were at 5-7 was an almost complete absence of run plays. While there are a lot of reasons Eagles managed to finish with a four win streak, including the teams they faced not being great, increasing the number of run plays was up there.

You cannot win on passing alone.

EvilDead wrote:

I don't think traditional running teams exist in the NFL anymore. Maybe Baltimore and the Bills got close but they were both on either end of the spectrum in offense. Teams run when they have the lead and pass when they are behind (someone pointed this out in the last thread). So bad teams usually end up with a ton of garbage time passing stats. Second half running is part of the reason that Sony Michel was great last year but sucked this year. I think first quarter / half plays give a much better picture of the offensive mindset.

In today's NFL I would never draft a running back first round. Saquon Barkley is otherworldly but it's not like he was winning Giants games. What makes Lamar so special is that he is a QB that can run as well as some of the best RB's. It's a defensive game plan / personal nightmare.

Edit: It also helps that he is a wizard with the fake hand off in play action. Harbaugh might even call it deceptive

Edited again: I'm not arguing that running is bad but that the difference between a first round running back and a fourth round running back isn't enough to justify the pick. Spend that extra draft capital on the offensive line instead. Then you are aiding passing and running.

We are far, far away from run-run-pass, so, yeah, the folks still doing that are losing their jobs, if not out of the NFL.

Michel was decidedly worse this past season, which could partially account for running in worse situations, but he seemed a bit more off this past season. Could also be the OL issues and lack of fear of Brady.

I have no problem with teams spending a 1st round pick on a RB, but doing so in the top five or ten shows that your organization is likely not a great one and will probably be picking in the same spot the next season (unless you lucked into the pick with a prior trade).

I read a lot about analytics, so my issue isn't with analytics at all, but we need to recognize it's still very much in its infancy and football is much less isolated occurrences than baseball or basketball. Meaning, it's more complicated and the numbers and formulas are constantly being revised. Historical data doesn't much inform modern data because of the impact of rule changes in football, so it's all very much in process whereas baseball was able to data mine history to help. That and now we have almost too much data thanks to Next Gen stuff. Everyone seems to think we're going to find out that passing is the way to go in just about every situation, but that's in part born out of the conservative nature of older coaches who run and punt instead of passing and going on 4th. But I think we might find in the future the smaller differences between players like Zeke and, say, Kalen Ballage that makes Zeke a stud and Ballage out of a job. There's a lot more nuance to running than folks think, which is why Frank Gore was still relevant until this past season. We might get some of those differences statistically now. Before we only had YPC and TDs. YPC is basically the RBI of football and the sooner we lose that the better. But what will we use? Change of direction stat that hasn't been created? Patience stat? Etc. More stuff is coming, it hasn't been created yet and some of it might make running more relevant than it is atm. The give and take is the beauty of analytics and how the NFL continually evolves, despite griping from my Boomer parents.

I mostly puzzle at how folks seem to need to use analytics to try to confirm their own biases. They don't like how rushing seems to be working this season so they try to "prove" that it isn't.

Off all the home teams only KC worries me. Andy Reid and all

WHY AREN'T THE NINERS WEARING THE THROWBACKS?!

The Vikings can’t cover anyone. This game is going to go quick.

Yeah. I see this game getting out of control early

On the other hand.

Put in Moseley

Anthony Barr is so bad he got pancaked by Jimmy G

Rush music as they went to commercial made me sad. RIP Peart.

*Legion* wrote:

Rush music as they went to commercial made me sad. RIP Peart.

NBC has the best and most timely music selection over the other networks.

Dammit, Jimmy. Not the turnovers.

Stele wrote:

Dammit, Jimmy. Not the turnovers.

That was a week 3 Garoppolo throw.