NFL 2019: Week 16

*Legion* wrote:

Cincinnati vs Miami is the game of the day.

Defensive Lineman Christian Wilkins caught Fitzmagic's first touchdown pass of the day, meaning he's tied for fifth most receiving touchdowns on the Dolphins this year with... Kicker Jason Sanders.

The Will Grier era started in Charlotte ... and nobody noticed, including most of the Panthers, who took Sunday off.

At the moment, Grier is in the Randy Fasani / Matt Lytle / Brian St. Pierre tier of All-Time Panthers Starting QBs, which is one below the Chris Weinke-Jimmy Clausen tier.

Gotta start at least two games and throw a TD pass before you can get into the Weinke-Clausen zone!

Ugh, I could justify Paxton Lynch running our scout team while Mason Rudolph went through concussion protocol, but can we please hire Kaep or something before we have to send him onto the field during a real game?

Steelers QB depth chart

  • big ben arm surgery
  • Mason Rudolph out for weeks this time
  • Josh dobbs jags best qb
  • Devlin hodges about to get benched again
  • Paxton Lynch someone has to run the scout team for vet minimum
  • Emmes wrote:

    Ugh, I could justify Paxton Lynch running our scout team while Mason Rudolph went through concussion protocol, but can we please hire Kaep or something before we have to send him onto the field during a real game?

    Steelers QB depth chart

  • big ben arm surgery
  • Mason Rudolph out for weeks this time
  • Josh dobbs jags best qb
  • Devlin hodges about to get benched again
  • Paxton Lynch someone has to run the scout team for vet minimum
  • Dude.

    You are playing the Ravens scout team in week 17.

    Ugh Packers can spend 7 picks on people who can catch next year please.

    Monday Night Cousins showed up as scheduled.

    Teddy B was undefeated this year. Just saying, Minnesota.

    *Legion* wrote:

    Monday Night Cousins showed up as scheduled.

    Ugh yeah no kidding. They just can't get a break.

    Wow. FiveThirtyEight has the Ravens losing 193 points against ELO just on the qb change alone. Factor in the Ingram injury and sitting Thomas, Yanda, and Andrews and I think taking Pitt and the points is a sure thing.

    Beast Mode is back! Marshawn Lynch comes out of retirement and signs with the Seahawks

    Haha oh boy, well I will be entertained one way or another.

    The Packers are 12-3 and I have never even thought of them as one of the best teams in the NFL. Not because I think they're a fluke, I've just never thought of them. They've quietly gone 12-3.

    Prederick wrote:

    The Packers are 12-3 and I have never even thought of them as one of the best teams in the NFL. Not because I think they're a fluke, I've just never thought of them. They've quietly gone 12-3.

    It's a win ugly team.

    Problem I'm having is I can't figure out how much Rodgers has declined vs his weapons are meh besides Adams who lost time and has had some drops. Then there's Aaron Jones who's been amazing.

    Will be an interesting offseason from a FA perspective and draft. Jimmy Graham might just get cut straight up as I'm pretty sure the cap hit next year to do so isn't that bad.

    I'm not sure what advanced metrics say about Rodgers but health of the overall team has been a major factor. People have missed time and are dinged up but this team has been pretty healthy all year. Add in a bye for the playoffs and they could sneak into the NFC title game with people still trying to figure out how good they are.

    jowner wrote:
    Prederick wrote:

    The Packers are 12-3 and I have never even thought of them as one of the best teams in the NFL. Not because I think they're a fluke, I've just never thought of them. They've quietly gone 12-3.

    It's a win ugly team.

    Problem I'm having is I can't figure out how much Rodgers has declined vs his weapons are meh besides Adams who lost time and has had some drops. Then there's Aaron Jones who's been amazing.

    Will be an interesting offseason from a FA perspective and draft. Jimmy Graham might just get cut straight up as I'm pretty sure the cap hit next year to do so isn't that bad.

    I'm not sure what advanced metrics say about Rodgers but health of the overall team has been a major factor. People have missed time and are dinged up but this team has been pretty healthy all year. Add in a bye for the playoffs and they could sneak into the NFC title game with people still trying to figure out how good they are.

    Rodgers is about where he's been for the past few seasons, which is good but not GREAT except at avoiding interceptions. His ability to avoid throwing interceptions means he could take teams to the Super Bowl for many more years, like Brady has. Especially now that he has a great defense backing him and strong run game. Those are the real reason the Pack is quietly 12-3.

    *Legion* wrote:

    Monday Night Cousins showed up as scheduled.

    His hot streak ended a few weeks back. I hope everyone in a championship FF game benched him cause he's back to cold. Since Seattle he's thrown a TD and interception a game for about 200 yds.

    If he gets hot in the playoffs again he'll go back to being 2012 playoffs Flacco but if not, well, Minny better hope Dalvin Cook gets healthy.

    garion333 wrote:
    jowner wrote:
    Prederick wrote:

    The Packers are 12-3 and I have never even thought of them as one of the best teams in the NFL. Not because I think they're a fluke, I've just never thought of them. They've quietly gone 12-3.

    It's a win ugly team.

    Problem I'm having is I can't figure out how much Rodgers has declined vs his weapons are meh besides Adams who lost time and has had some drops. Then there's Aaron Jones who's been amazing.

    Will be an interesting offseason from a FA perspective and draft. Jimmy Graham might just get cut straight up as I'm pretty sure the cap hit next year to do so isn't that bad.

    I'm not sure what advanced metrics say about Rodgers but health of the overall team has been a major factor. People have missed time and are dinged up but this team has been pretty healthy all year. Add in a bye for the playoffs and they could sneak into the NFC title game with people still trying to figure out how good they are.

    Rodgers is about where he's been for the past few seasons, which is good but not GREAT except at avoiding interceptions. His ability to avoid throwing interceptions means he could take teams to the Super Bowl for many more years, like Brady has. Especially now that he has a great defense backing him and strong run game. Those are the real reason the Pack is quietly 12-3.

    Rodgers is 8/12/17 in DYAR/DVOA/QBR thru last week (last night's stats haven't been tabulated yet.

    Prederick wrote:

    The Packers are 12-3 and I have never even thought of them as one of the best teams in the NFL. Not because I think they're a fluke, I've just never thought of them. They've quietly gone 12-3.

    I bundle the Packers, Seahawks, Texans, Bills, and as much as it pains me, my Patriots too, as teams that people perceive as good-to-great but are fundamentally average-to-poor.

    - Seattle is a bad team being carried by their generational quarterback playing at an all-world level . When he slips even a touch, “Arizona says hello!”, they lose horrifically (I’ll append the Texans in here too, though Deshaun Watson is definitely got more peaks and performance valleys than Wilson)

    - The Packers have had a super easy schedule and been on the right side of variance with a lot of their outcomes, a lot like the 2018 Chargers or dare I say the 2019 49ers. I don’t think “Winning a lot of close games” is really a talent of an individual team, look what happened to the Chargers this year after going 8-1 last year in games decided by 3 points or less?

    - The Bills are one of the most well coached teams in the league and I think they’ve got a truly brilliant and trendsetting coaching staff and front office. Unfortunately they have Josh Allen. The Patriots are kind of similar; brilliant coaching, subpar talent (which I guess is just regression to the mean in terms of getting lucky in the draft), except their quarterback has all the mental tools, and fewer of the physical tools.

    It’s a four team Super Bowl race: 49ers, Saints, Ravens, Chiefs. I fully expect a Chiefs Saints Super Bowl.

    SEA had numerous injuries on Sun to key players at i.portant positions including:

    Clowney (DE)
    Carson (RB)
    Penny (RB)
    Duane Brown (LT)

    Brown being out was particularly impactful as Jonny Bones Jones' older brother absolutely dominated. Many plays where he was essentially unblocked. You can't win a game in the NFL playing 11 on 10.

    staygold wrote:
    Prederick wrote:

    The Packers are 12-3 and I have never even thought of them as one of the best teams in the NFL. Not because I think they're a fluke, I've just never thought of them. They've quietly gone 12-3.

    I bundle the Packers, Seahawks, Texans, Bills, and as much as it pains me, my Patriots too, as teams that people perceive as good-to-great but are fundamentally average-to-poor.

    If those teams are average-to-poor, I'd hate to think how you'd rank my Panthers. Or the Jets/Fins/Bengals tier of teams.

    As for the Saints in the Super Bowl, haha no. They'll find some hoo-larious way to screw it up, with or without the help of the refs.

    staygold wrote:
    Prederick wrote:

    The Packers are 12-3 and I have never even thought of them as one of the best teams in the NFL. Not because I think they're a fluke, I've just never thought of them. They've quietly gone 12-3.

    - The Packers have had a super easy schedule and been on the right side of variance with a lot of their outcomes, a lot like the 2018 Chargers or dare I say the 2019 49ers. I don’t think “Winning a lot of close games” is really a talent of an individual team, look what happened to the Chargers this year after going 8-1 last year in games decided by 3 points or less?

    - The Bills are one of the most well coached teams in the league and I think they’ve got a truly brilliant and trendsetting coaching staff and front office. Unfortunately they have Josh Allen. The Patriots are kind of similar; brilliant coaching, subpar talent (which I guess is just regression to the mean in terms of getting lucky in the draft), except their quarterback has all the menta

    It’s a four team Super Bowl race: 49ers, Saints, Ravens, Chiefs. I fully expect a Chiefs Saints Super Bowl.

    Kinda? Thing is the Packers are 1-0 in games 3 points or less. If you expand that out to 8 points. You get 7-1. Also if you use strength of schedule by record. Packers sit tied for 14th so easy but not cake walk. They have pretty much played a .500 average.

    If anything what impressed me about the win vs Minnesota was it was the ultimate trap game. Already qualified, probably still winning the division but you have a bye and even the 1 seed to play for. That consistency means something.

    Saints in the SB? Not if they end up as the 3rd seed imo. That extra game and roads through GB/SF/Sea will cook them.

    At Christmas Eve last night, lots of talk about the Seahawks dealing Wilson to get a ton of draft picks. This is coming from spending such a large amount of the team's cap on a single position. The argument in favor of this would be that well-balanced teams that have a cheap rookie-contract QB or at least a not top of the market QB are best suited to be deep enough to win the NFL marathon.

    Evidence:
    NE in 14/16/18 all had a QB who wasn't eating up as much of the team's cap as a T5 salaried QB would.
    PHI in 17 and DEN in 15 won without elite QB play and having a full team with depth.
    Mahomes' Chiefs.
    Lamar.

    Counter-argument:
    SB winners as "evidence" isn't the best because of the sample size. Does anyone really want to roll with a Kirk Cousins-type talent-wise in the playoffs, even if they've got a solid team around that? If rookie deals are the key to success, why aren't the Browns killing it? Football analytics put QB as BY FAR the most valuable position in terms of WAR. RB/WR/DE don't come anywhere near the ~3+ wins an elite QB is worth (they're anywhere from 1-1.6).

    I'm not going to do any analysis to figure out which side has the better case, but it's certainly...figure-outable.

    Anyway, it was an interesting discussion and it had me thinking last night of GWJ and how you all would see it.

    Fwiw, Ravens are carrying $16 mil in dead money for Flacco, so they technically have almost-starter QB money on their roster. (And let's PLEASE not put the cart before the horse and anoint them just yet. )

    And the fact they've had to let pass rushers continually leave in free agency because they can't afford them is because they're spending tons of money elsewhere.

    I think young QB on rookie deals is simply one way to build. If you have a stud QB like Wilson, you pay him. And he got PAID. Brady has gotten paid plenty. They're worth that money, unlike Cousins who is still so dependent on OL pressure. Wentz has his moments, but injuries are always a concern and this season he doesn't seem able to lift the talent around him. Matt Ryan is someone I wouldn't want taking up so much cap. Goff is the poster child of being overpaid this year. Take half his money and get a better guard or tackle and he'd be m a much better bet. Rodgers used to be worth it, but he's not quite hitting his highest highs.

    So, really, I'd much rather have a rookie contract QB. For sure. It helps fill in gaps elsewhere. But it obv depends on the QB and if you have Trubisky you hate the model. If you have Lamar or Watson then you like it.

    Wilson is one of the few vet QBs who are more than worth the cap hit. Seattle purged the roster otherwise and Wilson is still playing lights out. Brady and Rodgers are actively limiting their team. Denver carrying Flacco's salary is the worst contract in the league. Minny is handcuffed but winning.

    You also have to hit on more of your other draft picks. The Saints have had some incredibly important draft picks with Michael Thomas and Kamara coming after the 1st rounds. (Seriously, Michael Thomas is gonna be in the biggest steal picks lists that Brady usually ranks in.) Seattle is in a good place. They're winning with a partially gutted roster and that's because of Wilson. Trading him for a bundle of draft picks means you have to get return on them with players like Earl Thomas, Russell Wilson, Kam Chancellor, etc. Seattle won with Wilson on his rookie contract (when he was playing well, but not as good as now) because their D was historic. Asking for that again is a high order.

    The Browns are a bad organization. They're trying to get better but it's still obviously a work in progress. They shouldn't be talked about for anything except disorganization in the face of talent.

    Top_Shelf wrote:

    At Christmas Eve last night, lots of talk about the Seahawks dealing Wilson to get a ton of draft picks.

    I think this is a fantastic idea.

    I would love nothing more than for the Seahawks to replace Russell Wilson with a bunch of Rashaad Pennys, Malik McDowells, Germain Ifedis, and LJ Colliers.

    Even if they get a Frank Clark in there, I'm still taking that swap all day long.

    Ravens extend Marcus Peters. Can't believe I'm excited about that, but so far he fits in!

    That's something he's done (or more appropriately, hasn't done) for years and years, including heading into the combine and draft. It's more or less worked for him so I get why he's being butt headed about it.

    In related news:

    Report: Browns undecided on firing Freddie Kitchens, win vs. Bengals could save job

    This is a monumentally stupid way to approach this.

    If he gets fired, I predict the headlines will read "Kitchens Sinks."

    Happy to be at in laws today watching red zone. One day that it's actually worth it for both early and late windows