[Discussion] Brexit means Brexit

Discuss the political fallout and other issues around Britain's exit, Brexit for short, from the EU.

For the sake of clarity, I'm including the full text of Article 50.

Article 50 wrote:

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

This has been a very entertaining distraction from surgery recovery!

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Boris Johnson's brother resigns as a MP and minister to spend less time with his family.

I didn't realize there was another Johnson (apparently there are 3 more) and that he at least appears sensible.

Best headline: "No Mo for Bojo's Bro Jojo"

I feel like I am seeing that meme "hold my beer"
We are complaining about trump and Boris is like "I can be worse!"

farley3k wrote:

I feel like I am seeing that meme "hold my beer"
We are complaining about trump and Boris is like "I can be worse!"

I can't wait until Boris starts redrawing EU borders with a sharpie

Well trump does his best to keep upping the anti for stupid sh*t but boris is still trying to win.

The BBC is reporting that the Conservative government may put forward a vote of no confidence in itself

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA WHAT DOES THAT EVEN MEAN

I commend you Britain. The writers here generally go for pretty middle-of-the-road, easy gags, but your writers are trying some heady-ass sh*t for this series.

if the only house of commons vote boris johnson ever wins is a vote he's trying to lose i'm giving away my earthly possessions and finding an abbey

MONTY PYTHON WISHES IT WAS THIS ESOTERIC

Amazing. They'll do anything to accomplish what their real masters wish.

I picked a bad week to have surgery that makes it difficult to laugh maniacally, that’s for sure!

sorry, redundant post

Brexit: Opposition parties to reject PM election move

I will commend them, three months ago I thought a no-deal Brexit was inevitable.

Now I have no f*cking clue what'd happen. A return of the Monarchy seems entirely reasonable.

UK opposition parties have agreed not to back Boris Johnson's demand for a general election before the EU summit in mid-October.

Labour, the Lib Dems, the SNP and Plaid Cymru say they will vote against the government or abstain in Monday's vote on whether to hold a snap poll.

But the PM said the parties were making an "extraordinary political mistake".

Meanwhile, a bill designed to prevent a no-deal Brexit has been approved by the House of Lords and will pass into law.

It will force the prime minister to ask the EU for the Brexit deadline to be extended beyond 31 October if no deal is agreed by the UK and Brussels by 19 October.

Mr Johnson wants an election to take place on 15 October, ahead of that date and the EU summit on 17 and 18 October.

Prederick wrote:

Brexit: Opposition parties to reject PM election move

I will commend them, three months ago I thought a no-deal Brexit was inevitable.

Now I have no f*cking clue what'd happen. A return of the Monarchy seems entirely reasonable.

UK opposition parties have agreed not to back Boris Johnson's demand for a general election before the EU summit in mid-October.

Labour, the Lib Dems, the SNP and Plaid Cymru say they will vote against the government or abstain in Monday's vote on whether to hold a snap poll.

But the PM said the parties were making an "extraordinary political mistake".

Meanwhile, a bill designed to prevent a no-deal Brexit has been approved by the House of Lords and will pass into law.

It will force the prime minister to ask the EU for the Brexit deadline to be extended beyond 31 October if no deal is agreed by the UK and Brussels by 19 October.

Mr Johnson wants an election to take place on 15 October, ahead of that date and the EU summit on 17 and 18 October.

This was Liz playing the long game all along.

Prederick wrote:

Brexit: Opposition parties to reject PM election move

I will commend them, three months ago I thought a no-deal Brexit was inevitable.

Now I have no f*cking clue what'd happen. A return of the Monarchy seems entirely reasonable.

UK opposition parties have agreed not to back Boris Johnson's demand for a general election before the EU summit in mid-October.

Labour, the Lib Dems, the SNP and Plaid Cymru say they will vote against the government or abstain in Monday's vote on whether to hold a snap poll.

But the PM said the parties were making an "extraordinary political mistake".

Meanwhile, a bill designed to prevent a no-deal Brexit has been approved by the House of Lords and will pass into law.

It will force the prime minister to ask the EU for the Brexit deadline to be extended beyond 31 October if no deal is agreed by the UK and Brussels by 19 October.

Mr Johnson wants an election to take place on 15 October, ahead of that date and the EU summit on 17 and 18 October.

I am honestly extraordinarily delighted that the assorted opposition parties are united in leaving Johnson hanging out to dry.

Johnson's assumption that he is/was destined to be Prime Minister as some kind of Churchillian second coming has been a pretty offensive thing to witness for nearly 2 decades. Yet.. seeing him achieve his goal and find himself completely and utterly out of his depth, outmanoeuvred and likely to go down in history as the least effective and shortest serving Prime Minister in British history is almost too delicious.

DanB wrote:

Yet.. seeing him achieve his goal and find himself completely and utterly out of his depth, outmanoeuvred and likely to go down in history as the least effective and shortest serving Prime Minister in British history is almost too delicious.

I had to do it...

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It will force the prime minister to ask the EU for the Brexit deadline to be extended beyond 31 October if no deal is agreed by the UK and Brussels by 19 October.

So what's to stop the following scenario:

BJ: Hey, EU. It's the 19th of October and none of over here can agree on what deal we want to try and make you agree to. Can we have another extension so we spend more time not agreeing with each other?

EU: No. Hard exit on the 31st. Try not to let the door hit you on the *ss on the way out.

Moggy wrote:

So what's to stop the following scenario:

Nothing. I mean, I'd be surprised if that's what the EU does.

Admittedly, I've given up predicting British politics, but I'm assuming EU politics retains more common sense.

Why should the EU bother? They've already moved the deadline like 3 times? 4? Every time the British government does nothing until the last minute and then asks for another extension. Why should the EU move it again and expect a different result?

As I posted in April.

bnpederson wrote:
European Council President Mila Schmidt has given a press conference - confirming that the EU and UK have agreed a "flexible extension" to Brexit of six months until 13 July.

She says that during this time, the UK can still sign off Theresa May's Brexit deal and then leave earlier.

She once again reiterated that the UK is allowed to change the political declaration but not the withdrawal agreement, she said. She added that it is was still possible to cancel Brexit.

This marks the 500th extension agreed upon by the EU and UK since Brexit was voted upon 113 years ago.

As discussed further up thread asking for an extension for further prevarication is a hard no. Asking for an extension to give time to hold a GE or a Referendum will likely get a yes.

I strongly suspect if we really managed to hold GE before Oct 31st a newly incumbent, non-conservative, government would probably also be allowed an extension to negotiate a sane WA.

LeapingGnome wrote:

Why should the EU bother? They've already moved the deadline like 3 times? 4? Every time the British government does nothing until the last minute and then asks for another extension. Why should the EU move it again and expect a different result?

Because the EU doesn't want the UK to leave.

What are you basing that on? Macron had to be convinced by Merkel not to veto the last extension. Many of the member states from the eastern side of the union are getting sick of the entire mess.

If, and it’s and if, the UK ask for an extension I strongly suspect it’s only approved on the basis that something will change (GE or 2nd referendum) post that date. If the UK come to the EU27 with a request for more time for another 6 months of navel gazing, it won’t.

Well, Amber Rudd is out.

Work and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd has resigned from the government saying she cannot "stand by" while "loyal moderate Conservatives are expelled".
Axon wrote:

What are you basing that on? Macron had to be convinced by Merkel not to veto the last extension. Many of the member states from the eastern side of the union are getting sick of the entire mess.

If, and it’s and if, the UK ask for an extension I strongly suspect it’s only approved on the basis that something will change (GE or 2nd referendum) post that date. If the UK come to the EU27 with a request for more time for another 6 months of navel gazing, it won’t.

Let me flip that around. How does the EU benefit from the UK leaving? There's no upside and all it does is weaken the union. I believe the EU is quite happy to keep granting the UK extensions if given the filmiest excuse with the hope that sanity will eventually prevail.

Djinn wrote:
Axon wrote:

What are you basing that on? Macron had to be convinced by Merkel not to veto the last extension. Many of the member states from the eastern side of the union are getting sick of the entire mess.

If, and it’s and if, the UK ask for an extension I strongly suspect it’s only approved on the basis that something will change (GE or 2nd referendum) post that date. If the UK come to the EU27 with a request for more time for another 6 months of navel gazing, it won’t.

Let me flip that around. How does the EU benefit from the UK leaving? There's no upside and all it does is weaken the union. I believe the EU is quite happy to keep granting the UK extensions if given the filmiest excuse with the hope that sanity will eventually prevail.

Stability.

The EU would probably, as a whole, prefer the UK say "sorry about that guys" and revoke Article 50, remaining in the union.

That's not what is on offer from the UK though. Unless there's a definite thing they'll be doing, as mentioned above, constant extensions only continue the uncertainty about what's going to happen. And the various businesses and markets hate, Hate, HATE uncertainty.

That is true, but the instability from UK leaving is so huge that I would imagine EU will try extensions as long as there is a small chance it leads to either UK staying, or leaving with a Norway style deal.
Some EU members playing tough about no extensions feels similar to UK playing tough about a hard brexit. It might (increasingly likely) end that way, but most of them dont want it to end that way.

I agree most of the EU doesn't want it to end that way but I think there's the question of how much they can give, politically.

As mentioned there's a bunch of countries in the EU whose citizens are tired if this back and forth. There are many companies and whole industries that just want it to be settled, even if it's a horrible outcome, rather than have it up in the air because they can plan around even sh*tty futures. And this is happening in an organization that requires a full consensus for anything to happen as I understand it, including the extension.

Well, seeing as the EU27 along with the Commission opposed the unilateral revoking of Article 50 I'm not sure how happy they'd be with the UK (or any future member) doing that either. There is talk of treaty change to fix that issue and everyone hates treaty changes.

But generally, bnpederson is correct. Whatever happens now, the UK is problem to be managed now. Well, more of a problem than it was before. It revokes now but what's stopping it from invoking the Article again under the ruse of some election stunt by a future leader citing a referendum that was never honoured? If it stays what sort of individuals is the UK going to elect to the parliament and put forward for the Commission? Again, if the UK stays how is any future PM going to support any deeper integration without the UK print media painting her or him a traitor?

I could go on. In the end the EU27 just want this to be over because once the UK decides what it's wants to do we are still facing decades of fallout regardless of the outcome.