[Discussion] Brexit means Brexit

Discuss the political fallout and other issues around Britain's exit, Brexit for short, from the EU.

For the sake of clarity, I'm including the full text of Article 50.

Article 50 wrote:

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

I’m calm enough about it. Like I said, the goal is to shake off the DUP. Johnson is just forcing a General Election because he can’t trigger it himself. With the DUP gone it’s back to the original deal of a Northern Ireland only backstop.

Of course, the damage done to the reputation of the UK in order to get a deal it had 2 years ago is another story but those are not my monkeys.

So that £1bn deal with the DUP for confidence and supply was not a good idea after all??? /s

Ruth Davidson is out officially. The only competent (and generally likable) Tory in Scotland, who was pretty much single handedly responsible for them getting their foot back in the door north of the border. No doubt they'll replace here with a Boris yes-man, which will NOT be looked on favourably, to say the least.

AFAIK, The SNP are only 2 seats away from a majority in Scotland. There's a reasonable chance they might be turning Shetland away from the Lib Dems shortly (Shetland was one of the most adamant pro-union areas so if it votes SNP that's a BIG nod towards a change in opinions about independence).

With Davidson out, I believe that ALSO opens up her Edinburgh seat for grabs as well...

Hmmmmm.....

And right after the approval.
IMAGE(https://media.giphy.com/media/U7P2vnWfPkIQ8/giphy.gif)

Brexit: 'Get ready' advertising campaign launches

Michael Gove, who is in charge of no-deal plans, said the adverts encourage "shared responsibility" for preparing to leave the EU on 31 October.

HAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA OH OKAY SO THIS SOCIALISM IS COOL HAHAHAHAHAHAHABAHAHAH

Latest news.

Even if the opposition get a law through saying that there cannot be a no deal without parliamentary approval the government will ignore it

Also any Tory MP voting against the party line will have the whip removed (this prevents them from being able to vote in Parliament) and be deselected. Which sounds more problematic to me as it would lose the Tory ‘majority’ and I’d imagine most of them would jump ship to another party and have their votes restored. They lose their seats in a GE of course, but I suspect that’s going to be a given soon anyway. The local conservative associations do not forgive or forget.

All of it just shows this current government has absolutely no interest in anyone’s opinions but their own.

Sorbicol wrote:

All of it just shows this current government has absolutely no interest in anyone’s opinions but their own.

Well that's been obvious for a while now, hasn't it?

Prederick wrote:
Sorbicol wrote:

All of it just shows this current government has absolutely no interest in anyone’s opinions but their own.

Well that's been obvious for a while now, hasn't it?

At least May was trying (very badly) to get some sort of consensus on leaving. Boris and Cummings are charging towards No Deal at all costs and actively threatening anyone against them, even in their own party and telling anyone else they’ll just ignore them.

The most depressing thing in all of it is the amount of people in the electorate happily cheering them on every step of the way.

Sorbicol wrote:
Prederick wrote:
Sorbicol wrote:

All of it just shows this current government has absolutely no interest in anyone’s opinions but their own.

Well that's been obvious for a while now, hasn't it?

At least May was trying (very badly) to get some sort of consensus on leaving. Boris and Cummings are charging towards No Deal at all costs and actively threatening anyone against them, even in their own party and telling anyone else they’ll just ignore them.

The most depressing thing in all of it is the amount of people in the electorate happily cheering them on every step of the way.

Consensus doesn't work in a First-Past-The-Post election system. That was always May's problem, the Conversative Base is pretty much the Brexit at all Costs Party. In FPtP your base is always the most important thing since you win your seat by getting 33% of people to vote for you.

I don't see Cummings working towards a No-Deal, I see him working towards an election which makes or breaks the Johnson administation. If they win a majority in the election then they can do what they like, if they don't then they are either out of power (which makes Brexit someone else's problem) or still a minority government which is just the status quo. The status quo is the status quo because MPs can't vote for anything without alienating some of their bases.

The referendum we need to be re-running is the AV referendum.

We need full PR and the dissolution of the House of Lords - or at least a fully elected chamber. I’m not sure how that would work though without just becoming a second parliamentary chamber. Elected people probably shouldn’t be members of political parties for starters but how you’d do that I don’t know.

I personally don’t have an issue with the Queen (or King) remaining head of state as it is (and hopefully would remain) a largely ceremonial position.

AV would just be a crappy non-waterproof plaster when you are already soaking wet.

Today’s update - judging from what Boris has been saying - that assuming Parliament passes legislation tomorrow to prevent a no deal he’ll call a General Election. I suspect this is now the most probable outcome.

The issue of when however is going to be the problem. If he sets it to November then technically we could have a default no deal beforehand. That would be subject to some very immediate legal challenges I’m sure, but it’s his prerogative to set the date as PM. It’ll all get very messy.

Wow, Boris is even more careless with his majority than May was.

Boris Johnson’s Party Loses Parliamentary Majority As MP Defects Right In Front Of Him

Phillip Lee has defected from the Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats, crossing the floor in the House of Commons as Boris Johnson addressed members of parliament.

The defection of the MP for Bracknell means the government no longer has a working majority.

No posts?

In his first Parliamentary vote, Boris lost. 21 Tory MPs voted against him. That means that tomorrow Parliament should be able to get through legislation that blocks there being a no deal on the 31st October - at least for now.

Boris is now all out for a General Election. That'll happen now regardless - mostly likely some time next month. It will be on Boris's "We leave on the 31st come what may" ticket, or Corbyn's " I want to leave with a deal but we'll have another referendum on it" ticket.

Neither will win an outright majority. Time will tell who'll be Prime Minister of this country in November. Bluntly, I don't have a clue.

The 21 Tory MPs who voted against him have had their whips removed. That means they can still vote but are technically no longer members of the conservative party.

Sorbicol wrote:

No posts?

That's what we've been saying waiting for this one to show up.

This is another good rundown but I think some of it gets a bit technical.

What a terrible set of options for a general election. I am concerned whatever the result.

Johnson has played it well to end up with an election that he can claim he was forced in to but he looks like a blatant liar: he doesn't want a deal, he isn't really negotiating a deal just running down the clock, he does want an election, proroguing parliament is to force no-deal through. So far as Prime Minister, whatever he says, the opposite is true.

It would be interesting if MPs voted against the election. What could he do then if the bill for a law against no deal passes today? Unfortunately I fear Jeremy Corbyn has painted himself into a corner and now must agree to an election that will be a disaster for Labour and stir up more independence talk in Scotland.

Sorbicol wrote:

No posts?

Oh, there will be many posts

I'm still convinced we are going to have a border in the Irish sea a.k.a. The OG backstop. This just has to play its way out.

Edit: Point made already by yregprincess.

Trying to predict all this is a lesson in futility for most part I suspect, god knows how it’s all going to fall out.

I’m actually not that worried the SNP wouldn’t vote for a GE. Their support base hates the Tories so much I think not voting to get them out would look mighty strange and do the SNP more damage than good. Also they still need Westminster permission to hold another Indy ref and they will not get that while the Tories remain in charge, so they’ll vote for a GE.

In then breaks down to what happens after the GE. I’ll be honest I think the most likely outcome is probably back to where we are now - the Tories get enough to form a government, possibly with some sort of arrangement with the DUP (and possibly the Brexit party assuming they get any MPs) That’ll practically guarantee a no deal Brexit. Boris will have purged ‘remainer’ Tories from the party by then (or rather the local Conservative associations will do it for him) and there’ll be the votes in Parliament to force no deal through. Depressing.

The alternative is Corbyn getting in. I can’t see that happening without support from the LDs and probably the SNP, which is by far their best option for a second Indy ref. It depends on how much Corbyn will need them.

The price for LD and SNP will be a guaranteed second Brexit ref (which ultimately is the only way out of this mess unless everyone votes on mass LD and they are a majority. That just isn’t going to happen) The SNP will demand a second Indy ref, the LDs - assuming they have the balls and the intelligence - will demand PR is introduced for the next GE. It certainly need to be put on the debating table now. Quite how much Corbyn will go for that - it depends on how dependent he will be on their support to become the Prime Minister which is still, I think, his ultimate goal.

And you think all of that will happen this month or do you think the EU will be willing to push the deadline back yet again?

I imagine EU would be willing. But I doubt the opportunity arises. Looks like the conservatives are most united, while the opposition split their votes.

I can't see any collaboration happening between Labour/ Lib Dem/ SNP during the election so remain and second referendum voters will be split. On the other hand if Johnson continues with the fib that he wants a deal the BP will split the vote of leavers. It must be tempting for BP to fight properly in an election because they could well win a few seats. This could, as you say Sorbicol, lead us back to where we are now.

My prediction now: Johnson has set his compass to leave at any cost. He will say the chance of a deal has been scuppered (do you like my sea-going analogy) by parliament ('I didn't want an election but they made me, I wanted a deal but they wouldn't let me, oh how I tried') so he intends to sail off with no deal which steals Farage's thunder and gets the Conservatives a majority and he achieves what he said he would. The Four Horsemen of the deregulation Apocalypse (Javid, Mogg, Patel and Raab) are released upon the earth.

What's most scary: Farage in Parliament, Diane Abbott as Chancellor or TFHotA with a majority?

The Lib Dem’s have said recently they are willing to collude with remain parties to ensure all remain votes support a single candidate. Problem is that doesn’t include Labour.

The date of any GE however is probably up in the air to some extent. With Boris losing his majority, there is a possibility that Labour win a VoNC, and get to form an interim unity government to sort Brexit without needing a GE.

Edit: and yes, I don’t think the EU would refuse to allow another extension. Failure to do so would be widely perceived as active interference in the UK democratic process (such as it is at the moment) and play right into Boris’s hands.

IMAGE(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDk35gMWsAIvDXq?format=jpg&name=900x900)

So, Boris is goosed? Or is there any way he can wriggle out of the hole he has dug for himself?

I’m a bit busy at the moment so I’m currently waiting for Newsnight to catch me up.

I find myself wondering less if Boris will be PM when I visit the UK next year but how many PMs the UK will go through between now and then.

Axon wrote:

So, Boris is goosed? Or is there any way he can wriggle out of the hole he has dug for himself?

I’m a bit busy at the moment so I’m currently waiting for Newsnight to catch me up.

Well he's pissed off pretty much everyone he can apart from the arch-brexiteers of his own party. Until there's a GE which decimates the conservative vote however, he's probably OK.

Sorbicol wrote:
Axon wrote:

So, Boris is goosed? Or is there any way he can wriggle out of the hole he has dug for himself?

I’m a bit busy at the moment so I’m currently waiting for Newsnight to catch me up.

Well he's pissed off pretty much everyone he can apart from the arch-brexiteers of his own party. Until there's a GE which decimates the conservative vote however, he's probably OK.

Yes but that’s the problem now, no? He can’t crash and he can’t get his GE. Which means the opposition are going to conspire to force him to do something the Brexit party won’t like ensuring electoral meltdown for the Tories soon after.

At least that’s what I’d do if I was Labour/Lib Dems/SNP and Caroline Lucas.

Axon wrote:

Yes but that’s the problem now, no? He can’t crash and he can’t get his GE. Which means the opposition are going to conspire to force him to do something the Brexit party won’t like ensuring electoral meltdown for the Tories soon after.

At least that’s what I’d do if I was Labour/Lib Dems/SNP and Caroline Lucas.

That might be the aim, but I suspect actually making that happen is going to prove supremely difficult.

The is a groundswell of public opinion at the moment that is thoroughly and utterly sick of all things brexit. That means there is an unfortunate majority who are very likely to back anyone saying "I'll make us Brexit regardless" - how is mostly immaterial. Boris is fully aware of that and that's the card he's going to play. So long as that's the promise I don't think he'll lose that many core Tory supporters to the Brexit party even if he doesn't explicitly promise a no deal brexit.

All parliament have done so far is say he can't bring about a no-deal brexit without their say so. They've also managed to make clear a GE happens on their terms and not his. Post a GE however - god knows.