[Discussion] Brexit means Brexit

Discuss the political fallout and other issues around Britain's exit, Brexit for short, from the EU.

For the sake of clarity, I'm including the full text of Article 50.

Article 50 wrote:

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

GE, DUP get discarded and Northern Ireland backstop, the backstop initally offered by the EU and only rejected due to the DUP. There, I've said it.

That being said everyone of my predictions have been completely wrong.

And BBC at it's best here. Cracking watch.

New York Review on Boris Johnson by Fintan O'Toole is a great article for people who don't know who this guy is who is about to become the next caretaker Prime Minister.

Prederick wrote:

This will literally never end.

Brussels is preparing to offer Boris Johnson a no-deal Brexit extension beyond 31 October in an attempt to help him keep the Conservative party together and provide one more chance to strike an agreement deal.

I've got a good feeling about this one too Charlie Brown.

It makes sense for the EU27 to offer this. Really, no-deal is never going to happen so all the EU27 have to do now is not force the UK into making a decision between the WA and revoke. Let the UK work it out themselves as it doesn't saddle anyone else with the blame. While I believe the WA will ultimately cause economic harm to the UK, it gives time for the likes of my country to diversify which we are already doing. For the UK, I think the damage is done and is self prophesying now, regardless of outcome, so the longer the EU27 can avoid anything catastrophic the better.

The European Elections have happened and MEPs are in their seats so the pressure that existed before May of this year is gone. So, it's almost easier to keep the UK in the system then start to remove them after the fact.

The UK might recover after a revoke and it might not. Heck, it might recover after a WA or no-deal and it might not. Makes sense for the EU27 to keep the UK on the hook for as long as it can. Sounds rough but welcome to global politics.

As I said, I think we are looking at a GE in the UK. Revoke and Northern Ireland only backstop has to be the only realistic options after that. Anything anyone is saying now is hot air. They are too clever to not know this.

Said that about May though...

You can watch Boris's Inauguration here if it floats your boat.

My word it's a depressing day to be British.

Edit: Boris wins, 92,000 votes to 47,000 for Cun.............. sorry, Hunt. give or take a few votes.

Sorbicol wrote:

You can watch Boris's Inauguration here if it floats your boat.

My word it's a depressing day to be British.

Well, with a professional failure like Johnson in charge, you probably can't say that for much longer. Because if the trajectory continues, "British" will cease to be a thing.

Just to give you an idea of how privileged old Boris is, his full name is:

Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson

Whoosie de What Now?

WTF is a Pfeffel?

Probably because I'm a hopeless optimist, I am sort of glad he got in, since it might bring the whole government crashing down faster than if a slick bastard like Hunt had won.

Veloxi wrote:

WTF is a Pfeffel?

Sounds like what somebody would name their poodle.

Veloxi wrote:

Whoosie de What Now?

WTF is a Pfeffel?

A pastry you dip in your covfefe.

Veloxi wrote:

WTF is a Pfeffel?

I don't usually take the piss along these lines but Boris (Maybe we should call him Al) just makes my blood boil. The aristocracy in the UK is eccentric and weird in a lot of places, but some of them still wield a really worrying amount of influence.

As an aside (and I realise how far fetched this sounds, but it is honestly true) I went to a state college (6th form here in the UK, this was coming on 30 years ago now) with a girl who's mother was once a lady in waiting to a senior member of British Royal Family. Her family had a title - I think her Dad was a Baron, or possibly an Earl, but I can't remember exactly what it was. To be honest they didn't really talk about it much. She was a surprisingly good friend, a lot of fun and intelligent - she wanted to be a doctor - but didn't rub anyone's face in her upbringing or station in life.

After we all left for Uni she started going to Debutante Balls and stuff like that, and also got a profile in "The Lady" (think very posh toff's magazine) and we all started to fall out of touch. It wasn't until about a decade later we found that she was basically pimping herself out to the highest bidder as it were. She was looking for an incredibly rich husband, as while her family was very old with a lineage that was traceable back to the Normans (and a direct line to the Royal family), their wealth was pretty much tied up in a mansion that was falling to pieces but they didn't have the free cash to restore (i.e. we are talking millions up on millions of pounds. It was a "listed" building here in the UK so there were a lot of covenants and laws about what they could and couldn't do to restore it) and was leaving them very close to financial ruin. Never did find out if she found a husband but apparent the mansion is now undergoing serious renovation, so presumably she did.

Just goes to show being posh isn't necessarily the same as having lots of money.

DudleySmith wrote:

Probably because I'm a hopeless optimist, I am sort of glad he got in, since it might bring the whole government crashing down faster than if a slick bastard like Hunt had won.

And that’s what I thought about trump as the repub nominee.
And then certainly he wouldn’t be elected.
And then maybe the electoral college would serve its actual purpose.

And then I went into a deep depression.

I’m doing a bit better though, but I avoid lots of news. Damn spouse wouldn’t agree to leave the country.

IMAGE(https://i.redd.it/r6is0bxmo5c31.jpg)

Sorbicol wrote:

(Maybe we should call him Al)

Woah, woah, woah, woah. Don't be sullying my good name like that.

Front page of the German equivalent of Time:
IMAGE(https://i.vgy.me/TF6C1c.jpg)
Caption: "How Boris Johnson works up his countrymen against Europe"

Great quote from the article itself:
"He's like the emperor who himself proclaims to the nation: 'I have no clothes!'"

(Edit: made the image smaller. Was gigantic before.)

I wonder if we should avoid the temptation to compare him to Trump. Trump really is a bumbling buffoon, while Boris uses a bumbling buffoon persona as a to to achieve his goals, and the comparison to Trump really works in his favor these days.

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/70TTQXl.png)

absurddoctor wrote:

I wonder if we should avoid the temptation to compare him to Trump.

Well, they're both racists so maybe not.

Johnson has to be preparing for a GE. His cabinet, his advisors (Dominic Cummings. Sweet. Jesus) all smack of a GE.

Axon wrote:

Johnson has to be preparing for a GE. His cabinet, his advisors (Dominic Cummings. Sweet. Jesus) all smack of a GE.

Yeah, I can't see this heading any other way at this point

DanB wrote:
Axon wrote:

Johnson has to be preparing for a GE. His cabinet, his advisors (Dominic Cummings. Sweet. Jesus) all smack of a GE.

Yeah, I can't see this heading any other way at this point

Apparently they are focused on leaving on the 31st October. If there is a GE I don’t think it’ll be because Boris has called one. It’ll be because Parliament has passed a Vote of No Confidence.

Boris is now demanding that the EU scraps the backstop before any talks can start completely ignoring the fact it's not the EU that wants to renegotiate and that the backstop was May's idea in the first place.

More like begging.
There's already been contact with Merkel and Makron to try to get them on his side regarding the Ireland backstop.

Yeah, I've heard compelling arguments that Johnson cannot have a GE without actually leaving as it will destroy the Tory party. I was listening to James O'Brien the other morning musing he caught himself thinking that finally somebody has a plan after years of assuming somebody had a plan but turned out they didn't. I mean, we are all assuming Johnson has a plan the same way we did with May and it turned out she was hopeless.

So, frankly, anyone's guess is as good as mine.

I watched Johnson's speeches, and I think it's pretty clear he has a plan: he's going to take the UK out of the EU on October 31st, no matter what else happens. Frankly, on this point I think he's right - it's appalling how the previous governments have been desperately maneuvering to avoid a clear democratic decision to leave.

Didnt seem like a very clear result to me. The democratic thing would be to ask voters what they meant with some meaningful choices on the ballot.

I agree his plan is to leave october 31 though. He is just fine with a hard brexit. The only question seem to be if he can do it without parliament stopping it.

Aetius wrote:

I watched Johnson's speeches, and I think it's pretty clear he has a plan: he's going to take the UK out of the EU on October 31st, no matter what else happens. Frankly, on this point I think he's right - it's appalling how the previous governments have been desperately maneuvering to avoid a clear democratic decision to leave.

Nobody - no matter what their opinion on the matter - voted for a "No Deal" Brexit. The question that the leave campaign never once addressed was "on what terms should we leave". The government has attempted to find a solution that "appeases" all sides with the WA - which after all is just the withdrawal agreement. All it says is "that for the next 2 years we'll keep the status quo while we negotiate an actual agreement between the UK and the EU, with some guarantees in it about maintaining no border between Ireland and Northern Ireland because of the UK's international commitments via the Good Friday agreement". It's actually a very reasonable document.

They abjectly failed to do so because the decision to leave the EU is a naturally divisive one. We're either in or we're out. The remainers want to remain - there are no differently levels of remain - we just remain, so their position should be a very unified one. The leavers have never reconciled exactly what they meant by leave, and there are plenty of them out there who want to leave, but not on a no deal. They are a reason why we haven't left because they are still fighting it out. Remember that - the blame for why we haven't left is entirely theirs, not anybody else's.

What leave has become is a campaign to appease the leavers - remainers are being ignored or actively told to shut up and take it. You will never run a "democracy" on that basis. A democratic decision to leave is one thing - a democratic decision on the terms of that separation is something entirely different.

Boris will never take this country out on a No Deal basis unless he actively rigs the democratic and parliamentary process to make it happen, because the overwhelming majority of MPs in this country do not want a No Deal Brexit. He's going to find that next to impossible.

There will be a GE before the end of the year. The interesting thing will be on what manifestos the Tories and Labour fight it on.

May had a plan to leave. Everybody hates it. Parliament voted it down, and then Parliament held a vote-athon to vote down every alternative to May's plan, including No Deal, Common Market, and Second Referendum.

I still see No Deal Brexit as the most likely outcome. It is the default.

Agathos wrote:

I still see No Deal Brexit as the most likely outcome. It is the default.

As goes Michael Gove, apparently.

The source is, of course, the flangin' Daily Mail, but even with Johnson saying there absolutely won't be a early election, it's interesting to see polling saying that Labour has a six-point lead if they ditch Corbyn.