[Discussion] The (likely) Depressing Road to the 2020 Election Thread

It's going to be a circus.

Will 45 get impeached or step down or challenged? All 3? MAYBE.

Will the democrats eat themselves alive and hobble literally every potential candidate before the primaries are done? PROBABLY.

Talk about that junk here.

JC wrote:
Jayhawker wrote:

You might be taking me a tad bit too serious. Considering her remarks were set to Twin Peaks music, I thought that was obvious.

The clip was funny but they’re still her words.

Well, you got me there.

Here's The Kamala Harris/Joe Biden Moment That You'll Probably Be Hearing About Today
But it is a tweet so I can embed.

It was strong but hearing it talked up I expected a bit more....omph. Not her fault but just Internet hype I guess.

Well, the bots are taking Kamala Harris serious now.

https://twitter.com/rvawonk/status/1...

My favorite moment of the night was when Biden flew into a rage defending himself from Harris’ attack over bussing and then suddenly deflated, saying “my time is up.”

Hopefully you’re right, Mr Biden.

He had an opportunity to say something about how the federal govt shouldn't decide everything the states do and describe how he thinks about when it should step in. But he just basically said,"Not my fault, nothing I can do" which is just bad leadership.

Biden should've ran against Hillary. His time is well past imho. He's more old guard that we don't need.

Yang is claiming that MSNBC was turning off his mic and not letting him speak. For that to be true he would actually have needed to try to speak, though. Dude looked like a deer in the headlights the entire night.

Really dude? Maybe you don't know how to talk into a mic.
Because MSNBC surely didn't have a problem with DeBlasio and Delaney blurting out interruptions.

edit: my bad ruhk... I was talking to Yang not you though I was commenting on what you wrote

What? I’m not defending him. I’m just saying that he has claimed that MSNBC was trying to silence him whereas anyone can see that during the debate he basically just stood there looking uncomfortable all night and barely spoke at all, even when directly questioned. Even his closing statement he blurted out in only a few seconds. I think he probably just had stage fright or anxiety.
I definitely don’t support him, he’s a technocrat who wants to apply market solutions to societal problems created by market solutions to societal problems that shouldn’t have been subjected to the market in the first place.

Mixolyde wrote:

He had an opportunity to say something about how the federal govt shouldn't decide everything the states do and describe how he thinks about when it should step in. But he just basically said,"Not my fault, nothing I can do" which is just bad leadership.

Harris was kind enough to leave open the possibility of an apology, she left him an opening for a mea culpa. It was masterful, if he had taken it he could have looked “presidential”. She threaded the needle of attacking the front Runner without it looking like an attack. Whether or not it was wasted on the American public remains to be seen.

I wonder why no one (TV pundits) thinks it is just a tad ridiculous that Biden has the support of %50 of black voters.
He can lose quite a bit of that to (hopefully Harris) and still be the front runner. Win/win so to speak since I don't see it as being a coup but more of a normalizing event.

fangblackbone wrote:

I wonder why no one (TV pundits) thinks it is just a tad ridiculous that Biden has the support of %50 of black voters.
He can lose quite a bit of that to (hopefully Harris) and still be the front runner. Win/win so to speak since I don't see it as being a coup but more of a normalizing event.

What is his popularity with black voters based on? His BFF status with Obama, or something more...?

dejanzie wrote:
fangblackbone wrote:

I wonder why no one (TV pundits) thinks it is just a tad ridiculous that Biden has the support of %50 of black voters.

He can lose quite a bit of that to (hopefully Harris) and still be the front runner. Win/win so to speak since I don't see it as being a coup but more of a normalizing event.

What is his popularity with black voters based on? His BFF status with Obama, or something more...?

Pretty much. He was the VP of the country's first black president for eight years. That gives him a lot of name recognition and one hell of a tacit endorsement.

There was a NYT's article from early May about Biden's support among black voters, especially older black voters. It had a quote from a Democratic political strategist from South Carolina that kinda summed up Biden's support: “They like Barack Obama, and they know Joe Biden. But do they like Joe Biden? He has to work for that vote.”

That same article noted that Hillary also enjoyed high support among black voters in 2007 during the primary, but that support ebbed once they became more familiar with Obama.

The odds of that happening with Biden are pretty high, especially considering that the #1 election issue for black voters is racism and discrimination according to a recent poll from BlackPAC, a group focused on polling and black voter engagement.

Biden's debate flub--saying he was 100% for civil rights, but then strongly implying that the federal government shouldn't have forced states to integrate schools--probably isn't going to result in continued or more support among black voters.

The same BlackPAC poll noted that Biden and Sanders enjoy massive name recognition among black voters (97%), but that Warren, Harris, and Booker are nipping at their heels. Importantly, the favorables for those candidates are significantly higher among black voters who follow the news closely. (Oddly, Sanders is the only candidate whose favorable rating dips among voters who follow the news closely.)

They only win by cheating. And by Dems not cheating to the same level.

Mixolyde wrote:

They only win by cheating. And by Dems not cheating to the same level.

Is it considered cheating anymore if it’s part of the standard operating procedure now? But that’s all part of Trumps invicibility - don’t start a mud slinging contest with a pig already covered in it.

If there’s any hope of destroying this administration (and by that, I mean the entire rotten GOP), the power lies in taking back the senate and holding onto the house. If the senate doesn’t cave under McConnel, he’s already proven that he can stonewall and break as many norms as Trump to keep his party in power. I’d love to see him voted out, but I don’t have faith in Kentucky to do that for us, so I’d be happily willing to settle for Senate minority leader.

New post-debate poll (or rather, immediately after the debates it seems, lacking any effects of post-debate media coverage). A single poll is not much for a conclusion, but that drop from 38% to 33% for Biden seem like, while it is meaningful, it isn't a gamechanger in any way.

What was more interesting, albeit not new either, is how Biden/Sanders seems to share voters (to a degree, still a minority within each voter base). That is just so weird considering the two are not particular similar. Is that the " we prefer old white men" segment speaking?
Then you have Warren, Harris; Buttigieg sharing voters. If those 3 could agree on supporting either Harris or Warren, that seems like the best chance for beating Sanders/Biden, as long as those two both stays in the race.

Honestly overlap between Warren and Harris/Buttigieg is just as weird as it is between Sanders and Biden. It just illustrates the cross-section of voters that don't pay any attention to policy or history.

Shadout wrote:

What was more interesting, albeit not new either, is how Biden/Sanders seems to share voters (to a degree, still a minority within each voter base). That is just so weird considering the two are not particular similar.

They project a similar image. Biden puts himself out there as a blue-collar champion of the working class from the kind of place Sanders did his Fox town hall from. Whatever the reality, there's a perception that Biden isn't one of the elites for a lot of the same reasons Sanders isn't.

It's sad to see how little voters seem to care about foreign policy, especially considering the outsized role the US plays in the world.

nako wrote:

It's sad to see how little voters seem to care about foreign policy, especially considering the outsized role the US plays in the world.

We have a completely unqualified narcist as president who is very likely illegitimate because the Russians interfered in our elections. We kinda have our hands full trying to make sure he doesn't destroy our democracy before we can get him out of office.

We'll worry about foreign policy again when we don't have a buffoon sitting in the Oval Office who insults our allies, sucks up to despots, starts trade wars because he doesn't understand the basics of international commerce, and tears up international agreements because he thinks he's a great negotiator that can somehow get a better deal.

And doesn't bring on people who have a hard on to "Bomb, bomb, bomb. Bomb, bomb Iran"!

I loathe that, while this is personally terrible, it could be politically good for the many in the long term:

The yield curve first started to invert back in March, which led to a good deal of worried commentary. As one Wall Street Journal columnist put it: “The market’s most reliable recession indicator is finally flashing red.” So why is the news worth flagging now more than it was two weeks ago? As Duke University finance professor Campbell Harvey has found, the yield curve only seems to predict a downturn in growth once it has been inverted, on average, for a full quarter of the economic calendar. We’ve now reached that point, he says, based on two commonly tracked pairs of bonds.

The worst would be a recession that takes place late enough that the (hopefully) Democratic President in 2021 gets slimed with it the way Obama did. The sooner it happens, probably the better for getting Trump and the Republicans out of office.

Unfortunately I can’t see it happening soon enough that the average swing-type voter won’t blame the Democrat (assuming they win). Even if it starts right now, the prevailing conservative commentary will be “Economic downturns happen (shrug, no big deal), but this recovery is terrible because of the Democratic president.” And it will work.

Well, at least there's an easy way to provide a massive stimulus to the economy: just implement the proposed plans for forgiving all student debt and the resulting economic boost will make us all better off.

Gremlin wrote:

Well, at least there's an easy way to provide a massive stimulus to the economy: just implement the proposed plans for forgiving all student debt and the resulting economic boost will make us all better off.

I honestly have trouble imagining the US implementing widespread higher learning reform until we re-evaluate our military hangups. I strongly suspect that there is a number from a military study floating around DC stating "expected recruitment dropoff if young people don't need the military to handle exorbitant education prices". I also strongly suspect that is a big number (like, in the 40-60% range), and that it gets quietly shown to movers and shakers when people start talking about education reform.

Yonder wrote:
Gremlin wrote:

Well, at least there's an easy way to provide a massive stimulus to the economy: just implement the proposed plans for forgiving all student debt and the resulting economic boost will make us all better off.

I honestly have trouble imagining the US implementing widespread higher learning reform until we re-evaluate our military hangups. I strongly suspect that there is a number from a military study floating around DC stating "expected recruitment dropoff if young people don't need the military to handle exorbitant education prices". I also strongly suspect that is a big number (like, in the 40-60% range), and that it gets quietly shown to movers and shakers when people start talking about education reform.

You might be on to something there. Oaths and patriotism aside, I know the soldiers I served with in military intelligence (oxymoron noted) were, to a person, there for the college benefits.

JeffreyLSmith wrote:

You might be on to something there. Oaths and patriotism aside, I know the soldiers I served with in military intelligence (oxymoron noted) were, to a person, there for the college benefits.

I suspect that situation has intensified in recent years. Raw patriotism isn't enough to motivate most people to join The Forever War.

JeffreyLSmith wrote:
Yonder wrote:
Gremlin wrote:

Well, at least there's an easy way to provide a massive stimulus to the economy: just implement the proposed plans for forgiving all student debt and the resulting economic boost will make us all better off.

I honestly have trouble imagining the US implementing widespread higher learning reform until we re-evaluate our military hangups. I strongly suspect that there is a number from a military study floating around DC stating "expected recruitment dropoff if young people don't need the military to handle exorbitant education prices". I also strongly suspect that is a big number (like, in the 40-60% range), and that it gets quietly shown to movers and shakers when people start talking about education reform.

You might be on to something there. Oaths and patriotism aside, I know the soldiers I served with in military intelligence (oxymoron noted) were, to a person, there for the college benefits.

The Army was the only way I was going to college. I didn't go active because I didn't want to be a 21 year old freshman so I went Guard instead.

I saved up all my money I could in high school. Graduated in '99 and had to enlist by February of 2000. I was so f*cking poor I couldn't afford community college after one semester.

One War on Terror and two deployments later, I graduated with a BAs in 2009. Six years later, I got my Masters. The GI Bill helped some but not much. The VA home loan has helped me a ton.

I wanted to serve but knowing what I know now I would have lots of questions for a niece or nephew wanting to enlist.

I am still the only college graduate in my entire extended family.