Kyler Murray: Watching Murray, it's easy to see why he's rated so highly. He's highly athletic, with a cannon for an arm. You're talking about a guy who is only slightly slower than Lamar Jackson, with arm strength that will be in the elite rung of NFL quarterbacks. In a draft class with no seemingly "sure thing" QBs, Murray is the gamble who has the most tools on offer.
His biggest question mark isn't his height. It's decision making. Murray succeeded in college football on pure athleticism. It's not that he made bad decisions per se. Rather, it's that his athleticism kept him from having to make many hard decisions. When the athletic play was there, he took the athletic play. He didn't have to go deep into progressions, as both the system and his athletic talent provided opportunities to exploit. That he has only one year of starting experience means there's precious little tape of him making the kind of reads he'll need to make at the NFL level.
His second biggest question mark isn't his height either, but his overall bulk. Murray weight in at 207 at the Combine, but his playing weight at Oklahoma was more like 190, and some suggest it went down to 185. That's simply not enough mass to take the beating that an NFL quarterback will receive, even in this don't-touch-them era. Media types were fixated on his height measurement, but NFL types were more concerned about that weigh-in. Weighing 207 won't hurt Murray's athleticism one bit, but the question is if that's a number he can sustain.
Murray is a guy that has played on the stacked winning teams since high school. The deck has been shuffled in his favor, and playing teams that aren't inferior to his is going to be an adjustment for him. He's got great tools, but whether he has the skills to read defenses and the body to hold up in the NFL are big questions. I'd grade him a mid-1st.
Drew Lock: Drew Lock in a clean pocket looks like a top 10 selection. Drew Lock in an unclean pocket looks like a mid-round draft pick.
Lock is an extremely high variance player. He's a gunslinger and someone you can see tearing up defenses in the right situation. He's a guy who can make the challenging throws that only a few special arms can dare attempt. He can throw off-platform, from odd arm angles, meaning he physically can make throws from a poor pocket. But in those poor pockets, the decision making goes out the window. He trusts his arm and he's just gonna throw it.
Unlike the top two guys, Lock isn't a one-year starter, but he really didn't show the passing accuracy to play NFL ball until his senior year. It took him 4 years of starting to get to this point.
Lock helped himself at the Senior Bowl. He followed a good week of practices with being the best QB on the field in the game. He threw an underhand pass in the Senior Bowl because that's the kind of thing this dude would do. He's got an edge to him. There will be memes.
Lock gets compared to Jay Cutler a lot, but he often reminded me of another player: Brett Favre. Don't think about Brett Favre at his Hall of Fame career peak. Think of Brett Favre the 25-year-old quarterback who was driving Mike Holmgren and Steve Mariucci to early gray hairs. Lock isn't quite as freewheeling as Favre, but who ever will be? But he has that same kind of looseness on and off the field as Favre, not as tight at Cutler. He's going to win over the locker room of the team that drafts him.
That high variance worked out for Brett Favre, and it was so-so for Jay Cutler. There's a lot of ways Lock's career could go. He's my #2 QB, though, because he has potential that the rest of the list doesn't. He also has the highest potential of being the draft's Blake Bortles, so, there's that. Still, I'd grade him a late 1st.
Dwayne Haskins: Haskins is a smart QB, probably the QB in the draft whose grasp of the mental game is least in question. He has a quick, compact release that can distribute the ball around the field. Brett Kollman compared him to Jimmy Garoppolo, and that's a good comparison for how he plays: a lot of quick throws, feeding a lot of different receivers in the short and intermediate game.
He has little mobility to offer, regardless of Stephen A Smith calling him "more of a runner". In actuality, he had 108 rushing yards last year (1.4 per carry) and ran the 40 at a Leftwich-ian 5.04 seconds. In an era of increasing QB mobility, he is a traditional pocket-only passer.
Where Haskins raises question marks, besides his lacking mobility, is his ceiling. He has a very good chance of being Matt Stafford, someone that hangs around the middle point of NFL starting QBs. But his tools make it harder to see him going above that.
Like Murray, Haskins only has a year of tape to show, but at least his tape shows a lot more progression reads than Murray's. Still, his tape is full of screen passes and other college-level concepts that are less useful for NFL grading. When he did throw deep, it exposed the fact that his arm power isn't at an elite level.
Haskins is probably the guy most ready to step onto an NFL field and start. There's plenty of value in that. But there's a good chance he will be described at some point in his career as a "system QB". Putting him in a vertical passing offense would likely be a mistake. He's the same sort of QB as Nick Foles, who got that second-tier caliber QB contract this offseason from the Jags. That's where Haskins is most likely to peak. I grade him a 2nd rounder.
Will Grier: Grier is a prolific passer who lacks the arm power for serious 1st round consideration. This guy has New England Patriots written all over him. Both Brady and Garoppolo had arm strength as a knock against them on draft day, and they both physically improved in that area after joining the NFL, as well as got put into an offensive scheme that values quick delivery over making tight throws in holes. I will be so not shocked if Belichick tabs this guy as his next Garoppolo. The Chargers would be another great fit for Grier. Philip Rivers has average at best arm strength, and the offense is tailored to it.
The concern with Grier is that the offense has to fit what he can do, and there's concern that his ceiling could be Andy Dalton, another guy that's made a career out of playing around his limited arm talent, but who obviously is on a much lower tier than those other comparables (with the jury still being out on Jimmy G). I think he belongs as a late-2nd, early-3rd round pick.
Daniel Jones: Daniel Jones was coached at Duke by David Cutcliffe, who coached both Peyton and Eli Manning in college (QB coach for Peyton, head coach for Eli). You're going to hear that a lot come Jones' turn to get drafted.
He's not Peyton Manning, though. He's more like some combination of Eli and Alex Smith. Everything Jones does is... OK. He's entirely unremarkable as a prospect. He has the size you want for a QB, He's decently athletic. He has the throwing power for the NFL, if not anything that's going to challenge the upper tiers of the league. He's got enough mobility to move around and make a few plays on the ground. His decision making is... adequate.
The thing about being coached by Cutcliffe, though, is that you would expect to see more production from Jones than he managed. He was a career 59.9% passer, and only slightly above that as a senior (60.5%). His 6.4 yards per attempt were well below the Manning brothers. His numbers overall were only incrementally better than the previous QB in that offense, who later was an undrafted free agent. To be fair, though, the Duke receivers dropped an absurd number of catchable passes.
Jones is the QB most likely to be overdrafted. I don't think he belongs anywhere near the 1st round. He'd be a 3rd round grade for me.
Tyree Jackson: Jackson is one of my favorite what-if guys in this draft. If Will Grier could be Belichick's next Garoppolo, Jackson could be his next Jacoby Brissett: a guy with franchise QB-level physical gifts who really doesn't know how to play the position yet. Jackson has so many coachable flaws that need fixing, and I think a lot of NFL coaches would not be able to create the environment needed to do that much fixing, but Belichick and his staff does. They only had Brissett for one year before trading him away (which, by the way, was a terrible trade that should have earned more ire from Patriots fans, but the team's continued success - and Brady's lack of decline in 2017-2018 - papered over it). So we didn't get to see how far they could have taken Brissett with more time, but his stint as a starter in Indy showed how far they got him in one year. Tyree Jackson is both bigger and much more athletic than Brissett (he's 6'7", 250 pounds, and he ran a 4.59 40 - those are high draft pick tight end numbers). The odds aren't exactly stacked in Tyree Jackson's favor. I think he screwed up by entering the NFL draft instead of transferring and playing out his final year of NCAA eligibility at a bigger school as a grad student. He needed better QB coaching than he was getting at University of Buffalo, and a year at a top school could have brought him further along. As it is, he's extremely gifted but so rough right now that he's purely a long-term speculative investment.
He's definitely a late-round grade, but on a team that has the time to take on this project, he'd be super interesting.
Brett Rypien: F*ck Boise State and every quarterback they've ever had. Grade: XFL 7th round.
Other draft thoughts:
* Nick Bosa is a carbon copy of his brother. From regular stats to advanced metrics to measureables, they are within the margin of error from each other. Watch their Ohio State tape and you need a timestamp to know which guy you're watching. They're more alike then Henrik and Daniel Sedin. They're more alike than Rick and Nick Bruiser. If Nick Bosa deviates in any meaningful way from Joey at the NFL level, it will be a shock.
I watched a highlights tape of Bosa, and the first play it showed didn't pre-snap spotlight which player Bosa was. But after two steps and just beginning to engage the offensive tackle, I knew immediately which guy it was. Turns out the play was his first sack in college football, tallied in his first ever game in college, as a true freshman. It was the kind of rep that would stand out on the senior tapes of any of the 1st round edge rushers, and it was in his freshman debut.
* The wide receiver position is an isle of misfit toys. There's a whole lot of flawed gems. Three guys that have my eye: AJ Brown, Deebo Samuel, and JJ Arcega-Whiteside.
* AJ Brown doesn't have the long speed to be a top draft pick, but he's a great talent that's likely to go low 1st or high 2nd round. Similar skill set as Juju Smith-Schuster but both heavier and faster.
* Deebo Samuel reminds me of another Jarvis Landry RB-body-at-slot-WR guy that catches and forces missed tackles to rack up YAC. Probably will end up around Round 3 due to lack of skill set for playing outside, buy likely to outperform his draft position
* JJ Arcega-Whiteside is a big, faster-than-expected receiver who caught more contested balls than anyone else in college football. In a draft of flankers and slot guys, he's one of the legitimate split ends. He's very Jordy Nelson, a guy who gets open by using his body rather than speed.
* Jonah Williams feels like a Joe Staley type of left tackle to me, and mocks have him going much later than he should. He's my top tackle. There's a few other good tackles. Jawaan Taylor is an immediate starting RT, big and strong and swallows people up, but not quite the technician you want on the left side. Dalton Risner is crazy strong and probably is a day 1 starting right tackle. Andre Dillard gas great lateral quickness and projects to a left tackle in a zone blocking scheme, but fits less well with a team that runs power.
* Rashan Gary is a physical talent that lacked production. But I think he was played out of position like the Niners have done with Solomon Thomas. Both guys belong inside at 3-technique instead of out on the edge.
* Gary's teammate Chase Winovich is interesting in that he performed very well as an edge rusher in college, but everyone thought his athleticism wasn't great for the NFL game. Then he went to the Combine and ran drills much faster than people expected.
* Montez Sweat has been evaluated like a top 15-20 player, but medical (heart condition) allegedly has him taken off of many draft boards.
I don't believe you asked my permission before creating this thread.
That said:
I'm quite bored with this draft and most of it has to do with the top story recently being Bosa + Trump. Zzzzz.
Where the QBs fall, especially Murray, is the biggest question mark. I'm genuinely curious what the Cardinals do and I hope they slide down from the top pick, net a bunch more picks and then take a OT in the 1st. There's plenty of quality WRs for them in the 2nd and 3rd. Then look to next year for your stud WR.
Speaking of WRs, the Ravens will likely waste their 1st rounder on one. Shame they still have no idea what they're doing in that arena, but I expect they'll go big body WR who isn't afraid to block in the run game. I really hope they aren't turning into ground and pound in Baltimore.
Drew Lock has Jacksonville written all over him. All over him.
I came in expecting to not give a whoot about Haskins, but all the talk of his processing ability has me intrigued. I wonder if he'll end up in Denver, but then I realize that Elway doesn't want anyone smarter than him starting at QB, which is why Case Keenum was let go and Joe Flacco brought in. I'm not sure if you all are aware that Flacco doesn't have the world's fastest processing speed.
Uh, Chiefs just traded their 1st round pick to Seattle for Frank Clark.
That's a win all the way around.
Edit: Uh, no more than that:
Seahawks agreed to trade their franchise player, DE Frank Clark, to the Kansas City Chiefs for a 2019 first-round pick, a 2020 second-round pick and an exchange of third-round picks this year, per league sources.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 23, 2019
The moment someone's been waiting to lord over Legion forever:
In a turn of events, 49ers’ franchise kicker Robbie Gould has pulled his contract proposals that he sent to San Francisco and told the team he will not negotiate or sign a long-term deal with them, and he would like to be traded, Gould said Tuesday.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 23, 2019
Since, in addition to the this year's first rounder, they trade the 2020 49er pick they got for Dee Ford, they paid a 1st Round pick to upgrade from Ford to Clark.
If Clark the 4-3 DE they need, I guess it is worth it. I was skeptical on Ford maintaining his level of play, and he is poor enough against the run that he seemed like a terrible fit for the 4-3. I guess this is also part of the cost of hiring Spagnuolo and switching schemes.
But there goes getting a CB in the first round.
And, yeah, there is also the DV crap.
Here's my (completely uneducated) WR thoughts:
WR Marquise Brown has the build of Tavon Austin. He's not the next Tyreek Hill. Pass. (Unless you tell me he can add weight and be more like his cousin, then buy buy buy!)
WR D.K. Metcalf has those gaudy combine numbers and I think Matt Waldman's comparison to Josh Gordon is apt. Metcalf isn't the second coming of Calvin Johnson, but if he's the second coming of Josh Gordon that's damn well good enough for me. I love watching Josh Gordon gobble up a catch and then get another 15 yards after contact. At the same time, sounds like he sucks against press coverage and should be avoided at all costs. He's likely a Jaguar then.
I mention these two off the bat because they're two of the most buzzworthy WRs, but I think they're both busts.
WR Jalen Hurd is probably my favorite prospect. As a former RB become legit WR prospect he's practically tailor made for the Ravens.
Matt Waldman's RSP has Hakeem Butler as his top WR, while so does FO's Playmaker Score. Waldman bases on tape. FO bases on stats. The fact that the two come together and find a STUD without the buzz of a STUD tells me he's gonna make someone really happy on day 2 of the Draft.
Then there's a bunch of other WRs who continue to fail to stick in my mind, though I love Deebo Samuel's name. Deebo! Hey Deebo! Awesome.
I have nothing to say, just tagging thread with a reply since I only check Recent Activity and never use Favorites because I hate using things correctly.
Yeah, I think it is just a fit issue, but it seems like an inefficient fix. I suspect the chiefs also had decided that the chances of another great year from Dee Ford was minimal, and had no interest in paying him on his contract year performance.
If last season was him turning the corner, this is pretty awful. If last season was just him taking advantage of an offense that gave them a ton of opportunities to rush the QB, during a year he he was motivated by impending free agency, then this still might have been a good swap. They got what they could for Ford, and then upgraded for Spags.
I don't think it is a such a bad deal that it dooms them, but it does seem to have used up resources that could have been used more efficiently.
I agree, Jay, Clark seems the safer bet than Ford but daaaaaaamn if they went about it in a backwards way. Ford only netted that 2nd because of his spotty production.
I'm not up to speed on Clark or Ford and their respective moves, but I imagine Clark is a massively more complete player than Ford.
A tight end in the top 10? Nope. The NFL just won't do that, except for some random crazy pick from weirdos a la Al Davis. That said, Hockenson does appear to be the consensus top TE.
It's Coughlin, if there's a quality OL guy he's gonna nab him.
Fingers crossed a QB or someone coveted slides to 12th for the Packers and a team loses their minds trading up like last year.
Most mocks have Hockenson going in the top 10 and the Packers taking Noah Fant at 12. So 2 TEs in the top 12? I dunno about that.
I prefer a fairy tale scenario where a QB slides to 12th someone out smarts themselves and trades up and the Packers still land Fant at... 15th. The Washington expletives seem dysfunctional enough to do this.
Today's one of the best days of the NFL season: the day Legion breaks down the QBs in the draft. Great work, as always. I really enjoyed it. I thought your Daniel Jones take was spot on -- he has career backup written all over him. Duke hasn't produced a decent pro QB since Sonny Jurgensen, and I don't think Jones will be the next.
Meanwhile, expect Carolina to take either an O-lineman or a pass rusher in the first round - probably an O-lineman. They're hoping to get a long-term starter a la Jordan Gross. Otherwise they don't have a ton of glaring needs - just a lot of positions that need upgrades like every other team in the league but nothing you'll probably find after the third or fourth round.
My least favorite NFL thread of the year. I'm just here for when we get to laugh at legion
My least favorite NFL thread of the year. I'm just here for when we get to laugh at legion
IRC when Bortles was drafted was pretty special.
I dunno about wishlists and I don't keep up enough to really be able to follow. I just want someone to replace Seumalo and/or Vaitai and/or be ready to take Peters' position.
Fingers crossed a QB or someone coveted slides to 12th for the Packers and a team loses their minds trading up like last year.
Most mocks have Hockenson going in the top 10 and the Packers taking Noah Fant at 12. So 2 TEs in the top 12? I dunno about that.
I prefer a fairy tale scenario where a QB slides to 12th someone out smarts themselves and trades up and the Packers still land Fant at... 15th. The Washington expletives seem dysfunctional enough to do this.
I’d prefer they get a TE in round 2-4 than take Fant that early. If Hockenson is there at 12 I’m on board given his blocking.
I’m hoping for one of the Devin’s, presumably Bush since White will be long gone. An inside LB with speed and aggression would fix so many ills on this defense. I’d also be OK with a trade down and nab Risner for the OL but just not sure he is BPA at 12.
And we gotta get a safety at some point. Makes too much sense for Adderly to come home to Green Bay, would love to see them make that happen.
garion333 wrote:Stele wrote:My least favorite NFL thread of the year. I'm just here for when we get to laugh at legion
IRC when Bortles was drafted was pretty special.
I'd say my assessment of that pick was pretty spot on.
I remember it so vividly.
I dunno about wishlists and I don't keep up enough to really be able to follow. I just want someone to replace Seumalo and/or Vaitai and/or be ready to take Peters' position.
OL definitely is on their list since they brought Jawaan Taylor for a visit, but he's likely long gone by the time they pick and I'm not sure they want to give up the firepower to move up for him from 1.25. Perhaps if he slides, but with the QBs all with less buzz than last year I feel like more OL will go early than the past couple of drafts.
That said, the Eagles will probably go with value and if we're looking at OL value then you're looking for someone who can play multiple positions. Jason Peters will be hanging it up and Kelce has one foot out the door. They need a LT and a Center of the future. LT is a bit harder to come by, obv.
I just realized I haven't read a single mock draft this year. They're so silly.
Even so I've normally read a couple by now. Weird that I haven't.
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