[Discussion] Brexit means Brexit

Discuss the political fallout and other issues around Britain's exit, Brexit for short, from the EU.

For the sake of clarity, I'm including the full text of Article 50.

Article 50 wrote:

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

yregprincess wrote:
Sorbicol wrote:

Leaving the EU is a binary issue - we’re either in or out...

If that was defined before the referendum it would have made more sense. It wasn't, it isn't binary, and so we are in this mess. The binary option of stay-in or completely-out is attractive because it is easy to understand but it is not where the balance of opinion is in the country or in Parliament.

I don't think eight nos is as negative as it sounds. It was encouraging that some of the softer exit compromise solutions were close and seem to have a chance to being agreed. This will push ERG types to accept the Prime Minister's deal as the lesser evil and might drag that decomposing corpse over the line.

If MPs do decide one of the closer to Europe options is their choice I think the EU will be very happy to accommodate this.

It looks like ERG will follow Rees-Mogg and go for May's deal rather than risk no Brexit.
That said, the DUP will still not go for it. That 1 billion pounds they paid them off with is looking like increasingly less value to the Conservatives every day.

Zelos wrote:
DoveBrown wrote:

So Monday they are supposed to run more votes this time with preferential voting. Letwin purposely did these ones with Yes/No in case anything actually could win. They are playing a lot of catch up here. It's worth checking first to get the lay of the land. The Monday votes is where they will look for compromise.

From what Letwin said this morning on Today, they're not going with preference voting, it's just "voting now they know what other MPs think" or something.

Yes, I don't know where I got the impression that a sensible solution to winnow down the unicorns had come from. I hate them and really wish I didn't live in a world where First Past the Post was a thing.

I guess one good thing about Brexit, for me, in paying more attention to British politics is my new and undying love of John Bercow. I just love how he yells "ORDER."

After another failed vote today, this from a cabinet minister:

When a BBC reporter asked a cabinet minister why the prime minister would hold the vote when she almost certainly faces defeat, he was told: “F--- knows. I am past caring. It is like the living dead in here.”
When a BBC reporter asked a cabinet minister why the prime minister would hold the vote when she almost certainly faces defeat, he was told: “F--- knows. I am past caring. It is like the living dead in here.”

...the one time when a politician accurately reflects the mood of the nation.....

Too bad April 12 is so soon otherwise at least there could have been a 28 Days Later reference.

Seriously though I keep hoping this will get straightened out just to restore a little faith in the idea that people don't jump off a cliff when they finally are slipping off the edge.

Banksy on Brexit

IMAGE(https://i.redd.it/7msb3socq0p21.jpg)

(Not actually about Brexit. 10 year old piece. Banksy is prescient.)

Y'now. May's got some f*cking nerve saying that "we had our ONE referendum and people chose to leave, so that's what we're doing. full stop" .... and then turn around and try to push her consistently rejected deal through parliament FOUR FRICKIN' TIMES because she doesn't like the outcome of it each time.

Anyhoo...General election time I think.

What a palaver.

pyxistyx wrote:

What a palaver.

Word for the day!

pyxistyx wrote:

Y'now. May's got some f*cking nerve saying that "we had our ONE referendum and people chose to leave, so that's what we're doing. full stop" .... and then turn around and try to push her consistently rejected deal through parliament FOUR FRICKIN' TIMES because she doesn't like the outcome of it each time.

Anyhoo...General election time I think.

What a palaver.

All of the major leave campaigns at the time of the referendum repeated said "We won't leave without a deal" or "This should only be the first referendum, we may well need others to be certain"..

I don't think Bercow will let it come back again but I've been generally wrong about everything that's happened, so what do I know?

I've just been following this guide. I think it has all the information we need.

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/3QqPf2D.jpg)

pyxistyx wrote:

Y'now. May's got some f*cking nerve saying that "we had our ONE referendum and people chose to leave, so that's what we're doing. full stop" .... and then turn around and try to push her consistently rejected deal through parliament FOUR FRICKIN' TIMES because she doesn't like the outcome of it each time.

Anyhoo...General election time I think.

What a palaver.

"You have sat too long for any good you have been doing lately... Depart, I say; and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!"

But... are there any mechanisms left to force a resolution? From what I know as an ignorant American it'll take a supermajority to call a general election, the Queen can't dissolve Parliament any more, and while the PM can't command a majority for any of her proposals the government *would* survive a no-confidence vote (which is kind of contra the point of a parliamentary system). I guess eventually the EU's patience will wear out but that's just going to cause a bigger crisis, which I suppose would have to lead to either a new election (referendum or general), or the pandemonium of a hard no-deal Brexit (and a good chance of breaking up the UK).

Stevintendo wrote:

I think UK Parliment should vote to guarantee that they'll get the eggs back out of the cake by a certain date. That way it'll just happen and no-one needs to worry about this anymore.

They should also simultaneously vote to bring back dragons and unicorns, and never bring back dragons and unicorns. That'd be about as helpful as anything else that seems to be going on at the moment.

I posted this too early... It's way more accurate now.

Just make it stop now.
When UK leave, and ever want to join again, EU should be like
IMAGE(https://media1.tenor.com/images/3eeb85272c6e91e66cdfbaf7d3e5947e/tenor.gif?itemid=4902673)

God, everything failed. Again!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...

Whaaaaaaaaatthehell...

This is going to end in another General Election.

Votes yesterday failed to find a majority but it shows the closest to passing are the softer Brexit options of Customs Union or Common Market 2.0. Both of these are closer to approval than the government's negotiated deal.

I reckon there will be another go of some wording of the PM's deal. It is voted down again. The government cannot allow no deal (voted down by a decent majority) or a referendum (that would be a sh*t show) or an election (rends the Tories in two) or get its proposal through. It will need to go through a period of renegotiation on the softer Brexit in parliament then with the EU requiring a long extension that the EU will be more than happy to grant. Let's say 1 year with Maybot sticking it out. The outfall of that is a large proportion of the population and MPs unhappy leading to some further splitting of the main parties. New deal gets signed up anyway. Election shortly after but, let's face it, Labour and Tories endure as dominant as ever because that is how the system always plays out.

Do we start a new thread for the European elections? Only joking- who cares who their MEP is?

yregprincess wrote:

Do we start a new thread for the European elections? Only joking- who cares who their MEP is?

Well, as long as it isn't Nigel Farage.

Will Farage stand again? If we end up in the European elections I wonder if there will be a glut of UKIP or leaver MEPs. It would seem a natural reaction.

An Irish friend of mine posted something to the order of...

The year is 2419 and the British Parliament gathers for the weekly ritual of "Voting down the May Deal". No one can remember what it is for or why they do it, but, as with so much of British culture, the tradition remains.

yregprincess wrote:

Will Farage stand again? If we end up in the European elections I wonder if there will be a glut of UKIP or leaver MEPs. It would seem a natural reaction.

I was actually thinking about this the other night. I would expect there might well be (if Eurpoean elections take place) a groundswell from remainers to vote in a somewhat more sympathetic balance of MEPs from the UK into the EU. However, Farage would stand as a member of his new political party, and as MEPs are elected via PR it's extremely unlikely he'd be unseated (as it were) considering he stands in a majority brexit supporting area.

So the cat has voted that it doesn't want to stay inside, it doesn't want to go outside, it doesn't even want to stand in the door. The window is out, and just getting on with life and STOP MEOWING has been ixnayed from the beginning.

Seems clear that the only thing left to do is shut the door as quickly as possible and chop the cat in half. It seems inhumane, but the Scotland and NI parts definitely want to to be inside, so after a period of adjustment they'll at least be happy.

Why would a referendum be any more of a sh*t show than any other option? From across the pond it seems like a referendum held now would almost certainly reject Brexit altogether, now that everyone knows what it really means. Maybe it's just the coverage I'm seeing in the British press, but it looks to me like the only voters still supporting Brexit are extreme nationalists.

Shadout wrote:

Just make it stop now.

So May now wants another short extension from EU, obviously.
Previous times it seemed nearly guaranteed EU would allow an extension. This time, well, maybe not. Seems like we might be at the point of either 'no extension' or 'long extension'.

Also she apparently wants to negotiate with Corbyn. However, only as long as Corbyn accepts her deal completely.
May is amazing.

Shadout wrote:

Also she apparently wants to negotiate with Corbyn. However, only as long as Corbyn accepts here deal completely.

… That's not how negotiation works.

I've been rewatching The Thick of It of late, and wanted to see what Malcolm Tucker might've thought of Brexit. Apparently, I'm not alone, as Armando Iannucci wrote a fictional debate between Malcolm Tucker and Alan Partridge on the subject:

https://www.bigissue.com/culture/ala...

https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-e...

ClockworkHouse wrote:
Shadout wrote:

Also she apparently wants to negotiate with Corbyn. However, only as long as Corbyn accepts here deal completely.

… That's not how negotiation works.

According to the GOP it is.

Sorbicol wrote:

This is going to end in another General Election.

Arguably, it would have been better if it had already triggered elections a long time ago.

Gremlin wrote:

Arguably, it would have been better if it had already triggered elections a long time ago.

It did. It's just then nobody really understood impact of it all. All it did was cost Theresa May her majority and the need to rely on the DUP (Who really really want a hard border and for NI to be as far away from the Republic of Ireland as possible) which, you'd think would have led to her resignation but my word these are strange times.

Her "olive branch" to Corbyn is nothing of the sort - it's entirely so she can lay the blame for a hard Brexit at Labour's door - "they refused to compromise". There are a depressing amount of people in this country who will take that at face value.

Corbyn's got one card left to play - once it looks like a No Deal is inevitable, he'll go for another VoNC. He's just got to hope enough Tory remainers will go for it.