[News] Trump, Russia, and the 2016 Election

All news related to Donald Trump's alleged ties to Russia and to the Russian interference in the 2016 Presidential election. New details should be cited to reputable sources.

Honestly, the ones actually pulling off this operation are doing something deep and complicated. All we see are the useful idiots. Putin doesn’t care if they out themselves. The dumber they look the better the op results are.

Yeah. Putin loves when they out themselves. In a lot of the assassinations, provocations, gas attacks and what not, they make sure to have just enough evidence that points toward something happening that Russia was involved in, without it being so conclusive that everyone will agree on it. Showing that you can murder anyone or affect foreign nations isn't that useful if nobody sees it.

I'm not really convinced that Putin orchestrated this whole thing in detail, insofar as I suspect that the Russians didn't expect to succeed this well. There's more than enough evidence that Russia pushed things along and so on, but they've got other geopolitical concerns too. We're not the center of their world, and Putin would really prefer to keep it that way.

ClockworkHouse wrote:

You may have seen CNN's report that Don, Jr's call to a blocked number just after the Trump Tower meeting was not to his father but to a longtime family friend.

A longtime family friend who happens to have ties to Russia and who has been a point of contact for Trump Tower Moscow.

It's like how the meeting at Trump Tower was about adoptions.

Blocking adoptions was of course the Russian response to the Magnitsky Act embargoing Putin's cronies money laundering. So when Junior was using the excuse that the meeting was only about adoptions it was tantamount to publicly admitting that it was about raising sanctions.

The criminals on the American side are not smart. They've never needed to be smart, because white collar crime in New York construction is apparently easy to get away with. Hopefully the final reckoning for crimes in the White House will be different.

Fortunately, the damage will be limited. I mean it's not like we're suspending a major nuclear arms control treaty.

NYT: U.S. Suspends Nuclear Arms Control Treaty With Russia

WASHINGTON — The Trump administration said on Friday that it was suspending one of the last major nuclear arms control treaties with Russia, following five years of heated conversations over accusations by the United States that Moscow is violating the Reagan-era agreement.

The decision has the potential to incite a new arms race — not only with Russia, but also with China, which was never a signatory to the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, widely known as the I.N.F.

Oops.

Well, I hope you like Cold War II: Now With More Clowns.

Gremlin wrote:

I'm not really convinced that Putin orchestrated this whole thing in detail, insofar as I suspect that the Russians didn't expect to succeed this well. There's more than enough evidence that Russia pushed things along and so on, but they've got other geopolitical concerns too. We're not the center of their world, and Putin would really prefer to keep it that way.

While I agree they probably didn't expect it to work this well, Putin really doesn't like Clinton, whom he suspected organized or at least supported some large protests against the validity of his election in 2011.

Russia officially out of the deal and blaming Trump, saying we're the ones cheating on the deal.

Just one more event of either complete incompetence or complete subservience to Putin. Either way 45 is a danger to the world and can't be removed soon enough

Stengah wrote:
Gremlin wrote:

I'm not really convinced that Putin orchestrated this whole thing in detail, insofar as I suspect that the Russians didn't expect to succeed this well. There's more than enough evidence that Russia pushed things along and so on, but they've got other geopolitical concerns too. We're not the center of their world, and Putin would really prefer to keep it that way.

While I agree they probably didn't expect it to work this well, Putin really doesn't like Clinton, whom he suspected organized or at least supported some large protests against the validity of his election in 2011.

Absolutely. He's a poker player, not a chess player. The Atlantic's cover story from last year did a deep dive on this:

What Putin Really Wants: Russia's strongman president has many Americans convinced of his manipulative genius. He's really just a gambler who won big.

I'm sure he was just as stunned as Individual 1 was at the results of the election -- and certainly much happier about it.

Throw it on the pile.

Paul Erickson just got indicted on 11 federal counts of wire fraud and money laundering in South Dakota.

Erickson, a conservative political operative with close ties to the NRA, is also the boyfriend of admitted Russian agent Maria Butina.

In May 2016 he sent an email to Rick Dearborn, Trump's then campaign manager, that bore the subject line “Kremlin Connection.” Erickson wanted the advice of Dearborn and Trump's foreign policy advisor, Sen. Jeff Sessions, about how to connect Trump with Vladimir Putin at the NRA's upcoming annual convention.

Rapid City Journal wrote:

The indictment alleges that on or about 1996 through August 2018, Erickson knowingly and unlawfully devised a scheme and artifice to defraud and to obtain money from many victims by means of false and fraudulent pretense, representations and promises.

Erickson owned and operated Compass Care Inc., Investing with Dignity LLC, and an unnamed venture to develop land in the Bakken oil fields in North Dakota. Erickson allegedly made various false and fraudulent representations to individuals located in South Dakota and elsewhere to induce those investors to give him money to invest in his businesses, as part of a scheme to defraud them and personally enrich himself.

The indictment says Compass Care was a fraudulent scheme in which Erickson led investors to believe that he was in the business of designing, building and managing assisted living residences for senior citizens around the country. Erickson's false and fraudulent claims to investors, according to the indictment, included a claim that returns on investments would be paid back within a year, that Compass Care oversaw 27,000 facilities in 26 states, and that Compass Care facilities had a development cost of $6 million and generated $1.7 million in annual gross revenues at full occupancy.

Investing with Dignity was presented as a company developing a wheelchair that allowed people using it to go to the bathroom without being lifted out of the wheelchair, the indictment says. Erickson allegedly promised investors that he could double or triple their original investment in as little as six months.

In the Bakken oil field venture, Erickson allegedly represented to investors that he was purchasing property in the Bakken oil field area to build single-family residences. He allegedly indicated falsely to investors that his projects had or were in the process of being built, and that returns of 25 percent to 90 percent could be had in as little as three months.

In all three business ventures, Erickson allegedly falsely guaranteed that he could personally repay the full amounts contributed by investors.

...

Counts 2-8, for money laundering, are based on seven payments to individuals from 2014 to 2017 totaling $129,000. Counts 9-11, also for money laundering, are based on three transactions from 2015 to 2017 totaling $59,472.09.

Victims and individual recipients of money are listed only by their initials in the indictment. The initials "M.B.," which match those of Maria Butina, appear twice in the indictment. So does a payment to American University, where Butina was a student.

Erickson has not formally been charged with anything related to Mueller's investigation, but he is reported to be the co-conspirator identified as "U.S. Person 1" in Butina's court documents. Erickson also served "as an entertainment agent for John Wayne Bobbitt after Bobbitt’s penis was infamously severed in 1993."

He's really conservative to the core, especially with his illegal schemes to f*ck over the poor, the elderly, and the sick.

Also, kudos to Mueller for putting the screws on him. Let's hope there's state charges to follow.

In all fairness those read like illegal schemes to f over investors with made up businesses that may have been presented as f'ing over the elderly, sick, and essentially transient workers in the Bakken.

Great Twitter thread on the rise and current activities of the Russian mob:

https://twitter.com/gregolear/status...

Tweets are in the Mueller mill that he has Trump on collusion with evidence. We'll see if that comes true or not.

Hobear wrote:

Tweets are in the Mueller mill that he has Trump on collusion with evidence. We'll see if that comes true or not.

Source?

ClockworkHouse wrote:
Hobear wrote:

Tweets are in the Mueller mill that he has Trump on collusion with evidence. We'll see if that comes true or not.

Source?

CNBC ran a report based on a NYT article. It's a good 2 levels of hearsay but it's based off of the transcript of a Mueller prosecutor in the Manafort case.

This is it in a nutshell.

I'm assuming conjecture/wishful thinking/clicks for now.

It certainly isn’t outside the realm of possibility in any way and that is what makes it so appealing to our sense making brains. Until there’s solid evidence I remain cautiously optimistic.

I’ll be more shocked if Mueller somehow proves that Trump and his despicable family are completely innocent.

There was never any point in which collusion was off the table. I don't know why anyone is acting like it was off the table. It has ALWAYS been about him conspiring against the United States with Russia. Along with the myriad other crimes he has committed, but principally the one involving Russia and his acts in tandem with them has been the major one all along.

I feel like I'm living in crazy town that this is somehow treated as news that the Special Investigation is still investigating this. What the hell? They've been dropping bombs left and right on this very damn issue for a long time now!

oilypenguin wrote:
ClockworkHouse wrote:
Hobear wrote:

Tweets are in the Mueller mill that he has Trump on collusion with evidence. We'll see if that comes true or not.

Source?

CNBC ran a report based on a NYT article. It's a good 2 levels of hearsay but it's based off of the transcript of a Mueller prosecutor in the Manafort case.

This is it in a nutshell.

I'm assuming conjecture/wishful thinking/clicks for now.

Thanks. I believe I saw the original NYT report (if I'm thinking of the right one) and feel like "they have Trump on evidence of collusion" is a very big leap to take from what the prosecutor said.

ClockworkHouse wrote:
oilypenguin wrote:
ClockworkHouse wrote:
Hobear wrote:

Tweets are in the Mueller mill that he has Trump on collusion with evidence. We'll see if that comes true or not.

Source?

CNBC ran a report based on a NYT article. It's a good 2 levels of hearsay but it's based off of the transcript of a Mueller prosecutor in the Manafort case.

This is it in a nutshell.

I'm assuming conjecture/wishful thinking/clicks for now.

Thanks. I believe I saw the original NYT report (if I'm thinking of the right one) and feel like "they have Trump on evidence of collusion" is a very big leap to take from what the prosecutor said.

I'm with you 100% and so is most of the media. It's why that story hasn't led every outlet for the last 2 days.

BoogtehWoog wrote:

There was never any point in which collusion was off the table. I don't know why anyone is acting like it was off the table.

Mostly I think that it's because the media has decided that repeating the president's wishful thinking counts as serious, objective reporting. And Trump apparently believes that if he says something enough, it will become true. (Which, in fact, has worked out pretty well for him in his life so far.)

Though someone did point out to me that technically, Trump isn't at the top of the food chain--he was only the money launderer before this started. If he's still in debt to the mob, he's still a pawn. It wouldn't be the first time the Russian mob installed a bought politician, after all.

They're still trying to get the banking restrictions lifted. Trump even delivered some of that this past couple of weeks, though the Magnitsky Act is still in their way.

Judge voids Paul Manafort plea deal, says he 'intentionally' lied to the FBI, special counsel and grand jury

CNN wrote:

Paul Manafort "intentionally" lied to special counsel Robert Mueller's office, breaking the plea agreement that made him the star cooperator in the Russia probe, a federal judge found on Wednesday.

Manafort "made multiple false statements to the FBI, the OSC and the grand jury concerning matters that were material to the investigation," including his contacts with his Russian associate during the campaign and later, Judge Amy Berman Jackson wrote on Wednesday.

Jackson's ruling is another stunning turn in Mueller's efforts to uncover Russian interference in the 2016 election, as the first man the special counsel indicted then pursued as a potential cooperator for a year sees the end of any benefits he tried to gain through a guilty plea.

Manafort was convicted of various financial crimes in August, and then cut the deal to plead guilty to two charges of conspiracy and witness tampering in September.

In all, Jackson determined Manafort intentionally lied about $125,000 he received for the legal bills, about another unnamed Justice Department criminal investigation and about his interactions with his longtime Russian associate Konstantin Kilimnik while he was campaign chairman and later.

Jackson noted twice in her order that two of the topics Paul Manafort lied about, Kilimnik and payments he received for his legal bills were "material to the investigation."

Manafort is still bound by what he agreed to in the plea, so he will not be able to retract his guilty pleas. But the finding frees Mueller's office from its contractual obligations in the plea, like asking for a reduced sentence for him because of his cooperation.

I can’t say I’m surprised about Manafort. This entire administration is full of liars and cheats that are keystone cop levels of inept.

How much dust is Trump going to have to blow off the pardon for Manafort before he signs it?

Rat Boy wrote:

How much dust is Trump going to have to blow off the pardon for Manafort before he signs it?

Because of Jackson's ruling, Mueller can share anything and everything Manafort said with any state prosecutor who wants an easy conviction. Unless SCOTUS changes the double-jeopardy rules, he has a good chance of spending the rest of his life in a succession of state prisons.

CNN: Special counsel prosecutors say they have communications of Stone with WikiLeaks

Washington (CNN)Prosecutors said for the first time that they have evidence of Roger Stone communicating with WikiLeaks, according to a new court filing from special counsel prosecutors.

During its investigation of the Russian hack of the Democrats, "the government obtained and executed dozens of search warrants on various accounts used to facilitate the transfer of stolen documents for release, as well as to discuss the timing and promotion of their release," the prosecutors wrote Friday to a federal judge.
"Several of those search warrants were executed on accounts that contained Stone's communications with Guccifer 2.0 and with Organization 1," which is WikiLeaks.

I saw that last night. Rachel Maddow also noted that a note on the court documents now lists the case against the 12 GRU agents as being materially related to Stone's case. He also had contact with three of the GRU agents in relation to stolen documents.

We're not quite to itshappening.gif, but we have to be getting close to the reveal. There is enough in the open right now that would allow for a Trump to get impeached, convicted, and removed from office. Trump's obstruction guarantees that, as well as so many other little tidbits.

But I think Mueller is trying to slowly build that case in a way that the public will have no choice but to trust and accept. Obstruction in enough to remove Trump, as well as all of the corruption being investigated by the SDNY. But this all started due to the Russian meddling. For all of this to have been worth the investigation, we really need to tie Trump to Russian meddling directly.

Impeachment is a shot at the "king." It's also a political solution. We need the GOP to do their part, which requires as much cover for them as possible with Trump's base. For the Senate to convict and remove Trump, public opinion matters, and there still seems to be a full court press by the alt-right and probably Russia, to keep that 30-40% convinced that this is not just a witch hunt, but a deep state coup. If we miss this shot in the Senate, it gets dangerous, in my opinion.

I still feel comfortable that this is going to get done, but the reality is, the good guys can still lose this. And one of the other aspects to this is that I fully believe a significant number of GOP legislators are implicated in taking Russian money and help in their campaigns via the NRA. These guys are not just protecting the president. They sold the GOP out to the Kremlin, and their best option is to capitulate to Putin.

There is so much redacted. But you see the the shock and anger in the eyes and words of those that do actually have access to the redacted information. If Trump was these target, I think they get this done months ago. But if it is as bad as I suspect, pulling the trigger on this could very well mean the the dissolution of the GOP, much in the way the NRA has been apparently shut down.

But if we let this go, the NRA is back and we essentially become a Russian colony. That's my tin foil hat version.

But his gout! Have mercy!

That certainly puts Cohen's plea deal in a new light. Look at what it could have been.

Man, this investigation has been ridiculously profitable. I suppose that's what happens when you get the chance to finally nail white-collar criminals.

The transcript from where the judge spells out how Manafort is obviously lying is certainly something.

I note generally that the allegations that
Mr. Manafort lied are not based on times when he said, "I don't
remember," which is something a person even under the pressure
of a debriefing session could say when they don't remember.
And none of the ones I'm concerned about are even based on
general denials which later proved to be untrue or they
corrected relatively promptly. My concern isn't with
non-answers or simply denials, but times he affirmatively
advanced a detailed alternative story that was inconsistent
with the facts.

I also found the defendant's statements in his
submission concerning his health to be particularly conclusory.
In his response to the allegations, the defendant specifically
asked me to consider the defendant's health issues exacerbated
by the conditions of confinement, quote, in particular,
solitary confinement, close quote, as a reason why I should
find that the inaccuracies were not intentional. But the
submission did not include any chronology, any medical or
mental health information, any information about the details of
his custodial situation, or any information concerning the
state of his health on any of the dates in question.
In short, it gave me no basis upon which I could find
that it would be a mitigating factor. So I gave the defense an
opportunity to elaborate at the hearing. And when I asked
questions at it that point it all evaporated and counsel had
little or nothing to say, other than, It's been shown, One sees
an impact, and there really wasn't any specificity there. And
it left the impression that the issue was left in the pleading
for public consumption, but not mine.

He also attached a brief from July 5th in which he
told the D.C. Circuit that he was in solitary confinement,
locked in his cell 23 hours a day. The Court in the Eastern
District of Virginia made the decision to promptly alleviate
those concerns by ordering, and not just recommending, that he
be housed in the Alexandria jail. The defendant then
immediately turned around and said, Oh, never mind, we
respectfully ask the Court to permit him to remain at Northern
Neck Regional jail.

It became clear why in the government's pleading,
docket 117. There he was housed by himself, it's true, but
housed within a private, self-contained living unit, including
his own bathroom, shower, phone, laptop, and access to a
separate work room for review of trial materials.

This withholding of facts, this begrudging behavior,
advancing a new version that's less inculpatory of XXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX was significant enough to
set off alarm bells with his own lawyers, not consistent with
the plea offer, and fairly considered by the Office of Special
Counsel to be a breach. And given the stark difference between
what he said and what he reported less than a month before and
the effort it took to get him even close to what he said the
first time, I find if to be intentionally false.

After getting slapped with a limited gag order last week Roger Stone thought it would be a good idea to post a picture of his judge, Judge Amy Berman Jackson, on Instagram that included sniper crosshairs in the background.

Stone's post rambed about Deep State trickery and how the judge dismissed "charges" against Hillary for Benghazi (she dismissed a wrongful death suit) and that he needed money for his legal defense.