[Discussion] The (likely) Depressing Road to the 2020 Election Thread

It's going to be a circus.

Will 45 get impeached or step down or challenged? All 3? MAYBE.

Will the democrats eat themselves alive and hobble literally every potential candidate before the primaries are done? PROBABLY.

Talk about that junk here.

Democrats Must Reach Out to Moderates in 2020 — By Waging a Vicious Class War

Piston’s research affirms a broader insight of contemporary political science: Most human beings view politics through the lens of group identity, not ideology. Ordinary voters do not develop an intellectual attachment to some abstract philosophy of government, and then join the party whose platform best represents their theory of the state. Rather, the average voter is born into a variety of social groups (a religion, a “race,” a class, etc.), and then joins whichever party appears to best represent her people.
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This theoretical framework helps explain why voters in the ANES surveys were less likely to complain about the GOP’s indifference to “inequality,” than about the party’s undue deference to the rich: Inequality is an ideological abstraction, “the rich” is a widely resented social group. The “all politics is identity politics” framework also indicates that the typical swing voter isn’t an ideological moderate, but rather, an American whose various social group attachments pull him or her in conflicting directions — for example, a white male union member who sees his racial and gender identities affirmed by the GOP, but his workplace identity celebrated by the Democrats.
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There’s little to no evidence that railing against “the billionaire class” hurts Democrats electorally by making them sound too “far left” (in fact, Piston’s book shows that progressive fiscal policies become more popular — which is to say “mainstream” — when pollsters emphasize that said policies would hurt the rich). Meanwhile, there is significant evidence that the deployment of populist, “us versus them” rhetoric increases the salience of class resentments in U.S. elections — and thus, increases the Democratic Party’s share of the vote.

tl;dr: "economic inequality is unjust" and "the rich are a bunch of pricks" might call for similar responses at the policy level, but at the level of the campaign message, voters feel there's a difference and respond to the message of "us vs. them" not the message of unity.

Booker’s officially in, too.

Let’s see how many more people we can stuff into this clown car of sadness.

ruhk wrote:

Booker’s officially in, too.

Let’s see how many more people we can stuff into this clown car of sadness.

I wonder who gets the “Please clap,” award.

cheeze_pavilion wrote:

Democrats Must Reach Out to Moderates in 2020 — By Waging a Vicious Class War
tl;dr: "economic inequality is unjust" and "the rich are a bunch of pricks" might call for similar responses at the policy level, but at the level of the campaign message, voters feel there's a difference and respond to the message of "us vs. them" not the message of unity.

Were my tag not already super-double awesome, I'd change it to "Class Warfare Clown."

H.P. Lovesauce wrote:
cheeze_pavilion wrote:

Democrats Must Reach Out to Moderates in 2020 — By Waging a Vicious Class War
tl;dr: "economic inequality is unjust" and "the rich are a bunch of pricks" might call for similar responses at the policy level, but at the level of the campaign message, voters feel there's a difference and respond to the message of "us vs. them" not the message of unity.

Were my tag not already super-double awesome, I'd change it to "Class Warfare Clown."

Doesn't Gritty already have that title?

On the bright side the Democratic primary using proportional delegate allotment means that most of the candidates will be gone reasonably quickly. If you go into Super Tuesday with 5% of the delegates so far awarded and come out the other end with 7%... Thank you, Next.

The Republican clown car got us Trump. Will the Democratic clown car also get us Trump? That's the billion dollar question!

bekkilyn wrote:

The Republican clown car got us Trump. Will the Democratic clown car also get us Trump? That's the billion dollar question!

Not if Mueller can bring enough evidence to impeach and disqualify Trump in the next few months.

/fingers crossed

Nomad wrote:
bekkilyn wrote:

The Republican clown car got us Trump. Will the Democratic clown car also get us Trump? That's the billion dollar question!

Not if Mueller can bring enough evidence to impeach and disqualify Trump in the next few months.

/fingers crossed

TBH, hanging our hopes on that is foolish. Mueller will go where the investigation goes. It's probable that stops a level or two away from Trump. Even if it touches him, who knows if public consensus is enough to move this incredibly partisan (f not corrupt) republican senate. Even if that happens, Pence is a stronger presidential candidate and since their supporters have no shame, people will still vote for him.

No, our hope is with the electorate. For good or for ill. With or without outside interference. For legitimacy's sake, we have to trust in the electorate.

We're at a severe disadvantage. The truth is at a severe disadvantage.

History trends towards social justice. An illegal Kenyan immigrant said that.

We'll fix it. Together. 2020 means we all need to put the work in. We all need to hustle. We all need to campaign. Take ownership of 2020.

Getting a bit crowded already.

oilypenguin wrote:
Nomad wrote:
bekkilyn wrote:

The Republican clown car got us Trump. Will the Democratic clown car also get us Trump? That's the billion dollar question!

Not if Mueller can bring enough evidence to impeach and disqualify Trump in the next few months.

/fingers crossed

TBH, hanging our hopes on that is foolish. Mueller will go where the investigation goes. It's probable that stops a level or two away from Trump. Even if it touches him, who knows if public consensus is enough to move this incredibly partisan (f not corrupt) republican senate. Even if that happens, Pence is a stronger presidential candidate and since their supporters have no shame, people will still vote for him.

No, our hope is with the electorate. For good or for ill. With or without outside interference. For legitimacy's sake, we have to trust in the electorate.

We're at a severe disadvantage. The truth is at a severe disadvantage.

History trends towards social justice. An illegal Kenyan immigrant said that.

We'll fix it. Together. 2020 means we all need to put the work in. We all need to hustle. We all need to campaign. Take ownership of 2020.

I can understand your position, but I would sure like to see some evidence that no matter how broken, partisan, and corrupt, our government is, it is still able to deliver justice of some sort to the likes of Donald Trump, no matter how much money or influence he possesses (or claims to possess).

I think it will happen, it will just have to come from the DOJ and SDNY, not congress. They are afraid they might be held accountable for crimes, also.

Mixolyde wrote:

I think it will happen, it will just have to come from the DOJ and SDNY, not congress. They are afraid they might be held accountable for crimes, also.

That's where it will get messy. I think Trump resigns specifically to fend off the DOJ and SDNY. At this point, they will just wait him out, and charge him when he leaves office. His only bargaining chip is to leave office early.

I, and others, have mentioned Rachel Maddow's Bag Man podcast several times, but I have to repeat, it's a great listen to understand how the behind the scenes stuff is working out. It dealt with getting Agnew to resign in time to avoid the possibility of impeaching Nixon, only to be forced to impeach Agnew after that.

At some point, someone will explain what the real consequences are for him, and a deal will be made. but it probably means none of the Trumps go to jail. But this entire scandal is exposing the massive corruption and hypocrisy of the GOP. There is still a chance that Mitt Romney and others may have to create a new political party to move on from Trumpism. I think there will be dozens of politicians caught up in Russian meddling and funding, and it will destroy the party once it gets exposed.

Personally here is what I'm looking for to start

1) No old white guys
2) I want someone who is going to challenge all the lies the right is trying to pass off in these committees and meeting and on TV. AOC is doing a great job of this without just "yelling back into the void". I thought Clinton would have been good at this as president.
3) No one is going to be perfect. For example I know for Harris people will bring up she was a part of "law enforcement" but I've also seen a list of things she did to make improvements in that area not just for cops but for people in the system as well. If people have changed their positions over time and not the day they say they are running for president that is fine.

So Klobuchar is more than likely announcing on Sunday.
Probably a bit too much because she is my senator, but she is my current favorite.

lunchbox12682 wrote:

So Klobuchar is more than likely announcing on Sunday.
Probably a bit too much because she is my senator, but she is my current favorite.

She is by far the favorite of my wife and I.

Jayhawker wrote:
lunchbox12682 wrote:

So Klobuchar is more than likely announcing on Sunday.
Probably a bit too much because she is my senator, but she is my current favorite.

She is by far the favorite of my wife and I.

I've met her twice in a military capacity and she made a great impression both times. She seems as genuine in person as in interviews or in Congressional hearings. I'd love to see her as President.

I don't know a whole lot about her, embarrassingly. What is it that makes Klobuchar your fave?

Her bold, in-touch position on tax advantaged savings accounts.

Nomad wrote:
bekkilyn wrote:

The Republican clown car got us Trump. Will the Democratic clown car also get us Trump? That's the billion dollar question!

Not if Mueller can bring enough evidence to impeach and disqualify Trump in the next few months.

/fingers crossed

The problem is that it has to be enough to convince around 20 Republican senators to vote to remove Trump from office.

Klobuchar is the only one of the potential 2020 candidates who voted to pass S.1 (the unconstitutional anti-BDS bill) just two days ago.

ClockworkHouse wrote:

Her bold, in-touch position on tax advantaged savings accounts.

Gold.

Leadership is defined by how one weilds power.

Dammit. I was really, really hoping he wouldn't, but Sanders is officially running.

trichy wrote:

Dammit. I was really, really hoping he wouldn't, but Sanders is officially running.

Why would you hope he wouldn't run?

Here's the announcement video btw:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?&v=s7D...

nako wrote:
trichy wrote:

Dammit. I was really, really hoping he wouldn't, but Sanders is officially running.

Why would you hope he wouldn't run?

Here's the announcement video btw:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_c...

Straight up distraction while being unlikely to win?

Chumpy_McChump wrote:
nako wrote:
trichy wrote:

Dammit. I was really, really hoping he wouldn't, but Sanders is officially running.

Why would you hope he wouldn't run?

Here's the announcement video btw:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_c...

Straight up distraction while being unlikely to win?

Two possibilities: Either he doesn't win the nomination, and we see a repeat of 2016 in which many of his followers stay home on election day, leading to Trump winning a second term; or he DOES win the nomination, and his message frightens away a lot of independents into either not voting at all or voting for Trump, leading to Trump winning a second term.

I honestly believe the only way we keep that nightmare currently squatting in the Oval Office from extending his stay is by unifying as a party behind a candidate. There are not many candidates I feel have that ability. He's DEFINITELY not one of them.

If it's about pure pragmatism, the Democratic candidate wins if they replicate Hillary's map plus Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, right?

So if pure pragmatism is the question, the answer is if someone can pull that off, or if there's an easier path to 270.

I think unity plays into a whole bunch of other questions like downticket voting or keeping the enthusiasm of the 2017 & '18 elections going for actually governing and winning future elections or local elections to ungerrymander in the Census year, but if it comes down to just getting Trump out of office, all that matters are the details of what that path to 270 looks like.

I'd hoped he wouldn't run either and I supported his 2016 run. I think the field of candidates is good enough this time around that he won't be one of the front-runners, which is also why I didn't want him to run. He's already dragged the party left and inspired younger members to continue moving in that direction.