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This is a place to deposit political predictions you'd like to make in public, so that they can be easily found and referenced in the future. Thus, it is not a discussion thread; discussions of predictions should take place in other threads as conversations proceed. Explicit clarification questions and answers are fine, but "Why do you think that?" expositions should occur elsewhere so as not to clutter the repository. Predictions should be narrowly defined; testable with publicly available information at all times; have an explicit date range; and refer to events, people and places explicitly so as to leave no doubt of resolution; and they should be numbered sequentially so that they are easier to find at later dates. Edits must be clearly marked and original text preserved through the use of strike-throughs if the prediction is modified. Please avoid the use of generalities - "The President will change his mind on this topic" is less useful than "The President will change his policy from yes to no on this topic", because the latter prevents a tiny change from being claimed as success. Failed predictions should be marked in bold at the top of the post via an edit, leaving the rest intact.
Prediction 1: The shutdown will not end until the TSA goes on strike, and when the TSA goes on strike, it will end the shutdown within 48 hours at most.
I learned recently that the pinkertons still exist so they can be hired to break up a TSA strike.
Prediction 1: The shutdown will not end until the TSA goes on strike, and when the TSA goes on strike, it will end the shutdown within 48 hours at most.
It is illegal for federal workers to strike. If you interpret that as an organized sick day / slow down then you could still consider the prediction possible.
Why TSA and FAA workers can't just go on strike to end the shutdown
Apparently so many "called out sick" today that the FAA had to issue temporary ground stops at several airports, including LaGuardia, so while there might not be an impending strike we may soon have an impending "epidemic."
Yeah, given the timing of Dr. Incurable's post I basically considered it a prediction of "the shutdown ends in the next 48 hours" 
Yeah, given the timing of Dr. Incurable's post I basically considered it a prediction of "the shutdown ends in the next 48 hours" :lol:
Actually I wasn't aware of any of that, I just was thinking about it and decided to post it after seeing no one else doing so. Now I know why.
Apparently so many "called out sick" today that the FAA had to issue temporary ground stops at several airports, including LaGuardia, so while there might not be an impending strike we may soon have an impending "epidemic."
This might be part of the reason why. An administration memo was circulated saying that employees who are working without pay who take sick leave will have that leave reported as a furlough, meaning it won't count against their overall sick leave bank and will be paid back. So now air traffic controllers and the like are able to call in sick for free, essentially, making sick outs a lot more likely.
Jolly Bill wrote:Yeah, given the timing of Dr. Incurable's post I basically considered it a prediction of "the shutdown ends in the next 48 hours" :lol:
Actually I wasn't aware of any of that, I just was thinking about it and decided to post it after seeing no one else doing so. Now I know why. :lol:
Dr. Incurable might want to hit up Vegas this weekend! 
Dr.Incurable wrote:Jolly Bill wrote:Yeah, given the timing of Dr. Incurable's post I basically considered it a prediction of "the shutdown ends in the next 48 hours" :lol:
Actually I wasn't aware of any of that, I just was thinking about it and decided to post it after seeing no one else doing so. Now I know why. :lol:
Dr. Incurable might want to hit up Vegas this weekend! :-)
I did buy some lottery tickets because I felt lucky.
So... what exactly is the policy on predictions that can't exactly turn out as originally worded? I meant the wording that I had used, I was expecting a strike to precede the end of the shut down, but since federal workers can't strike legally, how do I proceed? I feel like partially true is good, because airports are being negatively impacted by a smaller pool of workers during the shutdown, but it isn't a strike, but there is a deal to fund the government. How do we feel it should be judged?
1. Russia testing the limits of NATO and EU unity.
Over the next 2 years Putin will start to poke at Eastern European countries. Russian minority protests, violence toward said minorities, violence from said minorities. It will be incited and coordinated by Russia, but evidence will be weak, and the various 'Putin verstehers' in US and Europe will defend Putin.
There will be increasingly frequent Russian military activities in Baltic and Scandinavia (Finland /Sweden), continuously breaching their airspace and national waters. At least one incident will have casualties.
I'm a few months late on this.
But thanks to our benevolent and fair leader Donald Trump, who is so tough on Russia, the above luckily has not happened yet.
Shadout wrote:1. Russia testing the limits of NATO and EU unity.
Over the next 2 years Putin will start to poke at Eastern European countries. Russian minority protests, violence toward said minorities, violence from said minorities. It will be incited and coordinated by Russia, but evidence will be weak, and the various 'Putin verstehers' in US and Europe will defend Putin.
There will be increasingly frequent Russian military activities in Baltic and Scandinavia (Finland /Sweden), continuously breaching their airspace and national waters. At least one incident will have casualties.I'm a few months late on this.
But thanks to our benevolent and fair leader Donald Trump, who is so tough on Russia, the above luckily has not happened yet.
If I’m Belarus, or the Baltic’s, I’m particularly concerned. I don’t think they’ll mess with Finland again.
A few predictions:
18.1) The shutdown will continue at least through mid-February (let's say February 15).
18.2) A large number of federal workers will become basically a 21st-century Bonus Army, protesting and possibly engaging in civil disobedience (camping out near the White House) by the time the shutdown holds up paycheck #5.
18.3) The shutdown will not end until TSA workers go on strike.
I'm quite glad to be wrong about this. I'm going to say the ATC sick-outs definitely don't count as #3, even if the spirit is the same.
Prediction 1: The shutdown will not end until the TSA goes on strike, and when the TSA goes on strike, it will end the shutdown within 48 hours at most.
Not giving it to this one, as the TSA can't legally go on strike. The pre conditions weren't met as worded even though the shutdown did end within 48 hours of major airports being hampered by loss of workforce.
Prediction 2: February 15th will pass by uneventfully and Trump will not shut down the government because of a lack of support from the senate.
Alternatively Prediction 2.5: February 15th will come, a shutdown will happen but will last no longer than 3 days as senate republicans will be overwhelmed by a wave of criticism from their constituents.
An AFC team has won the Super Bowl, which according to the Super Bowl Indicator means we are headed straight for a downturn. Hope I’m wrong but calling it now - recession by end of year.
Thanks Tom Brady.
An AFC team has won the Super Bowl, which according to the Super Bowl Indicator means we are headed straight for a downturn. Hope I’m wrong but calling it now - recession by end of year.
Thanks Tom Brady.
Still a more accurate prediction of economic downturns than minimum wage increases.
18.1 Before 2020 is over, we will have a major outbreak of a disease that we already have vaccinations for, with dozens of deaths; hopefully it won't be a mutated vaccination-resistant strain that causes thousands of deaths.
18.2.a The National Emergency will get immediately halted by the courts as many interested parties scramble to oppose it.
18.2.b The administration will keep tweaking the emergency order until a version of it slips past the court.
18.2.c By the time that happens, the scandals will have moved on and it will be a comparatively minor part of the discourse, similar to how the Muslim ban was eventually implemented.
18.2.d Despite this, very little actual wall will be built before the 2020 election. Though there will be irrevocable environmental damage. Trump will run on promising to finish building the Wall.
He's already changed his chant to "Finish the Wall" despite ZERO wall being built...
Prediction: Come mid-March, with anxiety riding high, markets wobbling, and the public starting to panic over shortages, Labour will cave and agree to May's Brexit deal.
I predict I will say I want to avoid the news this weekend (because holy sh*t do I need a break, I'm declaring a national emergency) and I will cave, if not later this evening than tomorrow morning.
I predict I will say I want to avoid the news this weekend (because holy sh*t do I need a break, I'm declaring a national emergency) and I will cave, if not later this evening than tomorrow morning.
Folks, should we do a wellness check on Oily? 
I'm posting this mostly out of the hope that one of you brilliant folks will tell me how wrong I am on these, because, damn, I'm getting depressed.
Prediction: The Mueller report will be released publicly, containing damning evidence that Trump colluded with Russia, obstructed justice, and committed multiple violations of finance law. There will be a lot of hand-wringing by Democrats, and nothing else. Donald Trump will finish his first term with little to no legal issues.
Prediction: Bernie Sanders will win the nomination after one of the most brutal, contentious primary campaigns in history. His rhetoric and age will frighten off independents and more conservative Democrats, losing enough votes that Donald Trump will win reelection.
Prediction: After losing the presidential election, the Democratic party will implode, splitting along fault lines between liberals and leftists. As a result, the Republicans will unify with a more cohesive message, and dominate in local, state, and federal elections for the next eight to sixteen years.
That all checks out except the Mueller report won't be public.
Oh and I'm alive, Nim. Technically.
Oh and I'm alive, Nim. Technically.
The best kind of alive?
Prediction: The Mueller report will be released publicly, containing damning evidence that Trump colluded with Russia, obstructed justice, and committed multiple violations of finance law. There will be a lot of hand-wringing by Democrats, and nothing else. Donald Trump will finish his first term with little to no legal issues.
There's a lot of Mueller-inspired investigations into Trump, the Trump campaign, and the Trump Organization that are being spun up by prosecutors in the notoriously independent Southern District of New York. Trump's going to be up to his neck in legal issues that he can't make go away with federal pardons, executive privilege, or a new Attorney General.
I truly believe that the evidence Mueller has is absolutely damning. The report is being made public nearly every day in the form of court filings and indictments. The actual report will be made mostly public, and it will force not just the House to bring impeachment charges, but will also have the support of the Senate. Trump will then resign, avoiding any jail time for him and his kids.
This will happen before the first Democratic debates.
I'm posting this mostly out of the hope that one of you brilliant folks will tell me how wrong I am on these, because, damn, I'm getting depressed.
Prediction: The Mueller report will be released publicly, containing damning evidence that Trump colluded with Russia, obstructed justice, and committed multiple violations of finance law. There will be a lot of hand-wringing by Democrats, and nothing else. Donald Trump will finish his first term with little to no legal issues.
Prediction: Bernie Sanders will win the nomination after one of the most brutal, contentious primary campaigns in history. His rhetoric and age will frighten off independents and more conservative Democrats, losing enough votes that Donald Trump will win reelection.
Prediction: After losing the presidential election, the Democratic party will implode, splitting along fault lines between liberals and leftists. As a result, the Republicans will unify with a more cohesive message, and dominate in local, state, and federal elections for the next eight to sixteen years.
Well crap.. there goes all my sleep for the next two years.
2 variations of the Mueller Probe and Trumps first term:
1. Mueller will present absolutely damning, incontrovertible evidence of fraud, collusion, and all manner of other crimes... pointing to everyone AROUND Trump. The evidence will LOGICALLY point to Trump but there won’t be enough actual evidence against Trump himself, mostly because he tends to just tell people the results he wants and leaves the details to everyone else. He will serve out his the rest of his term and may even be re-elected after being ‘cleared’ by the investigation. He’ll spend the rest of his life and fortune battling state courts but will never face any serious repercussions.
2. There will be clear evidence of fraud, collusion, etc pointing directly back to Trump. He will serve the rest of his term acting like nothing is wrong and screaming about witch hunts while Congress and the Senate gridlock over whether to raise impeachment hearings. He will spend most of the rest of his life and fortune battling state courts but will never face any sort of serious repercussions.
The truth is, we shouldn’t hang too much hope on the idea of mueller clearing us of this mess. It’d be nice, sure, but I’m not hanging my hat on it. What really needs to happen is that those grassroots congressmen and senators that will get elected and have been elected continue to do so. There’s no easy way out, but centrist Democrats and the DCCC are almost RINOs at this point in the actions they take to get re-elected and to choose whose in what primaries. The whole system needs a solid purging.
I predict that Bernie will lose to Biden in a tight race and that Biden will end up as a president of a largely broken system and will serve all of one term as both the right and the left tip him apart.
The truth is, we shouldn’t hang too much hope on the idea of mueller clearing us of this mess. It’d be nice, sure, but I’m not hanging my hat on it.
Oh, he absolutely won’t clear up this mess and will likely only enflame it, and it gets absolutely frustrating watching liberals act like he’s Moses, about to bestow the benelovance of LAW upon the land and lead the country to freedom.
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