[Q&A] Political Predictions Repository

Want to make your mark and be GWJ famous?

This is a place to deposit political predictions you'd like to make in public, so that they can be easily found and referenced in the future. Thus, it is not a discussion thread; discussions of predictions should take place in other threads as conversations proceed. Explicit clarification questions and answers are fine, but "Why do you think that?" expositions should occur elsewhere so as not to clutter the repository. Predictions should be narrowly defined; testable with publicly available information at all times; have an explicit date range; and refer to events, people and places explicitly so as to leave no doubt of resolution; and they should be numbered sequentially so that they are easier to find at later dates. Edits must be clearly marked and original text preserved through the use of strike-throughs if the prediction is modified. Please avoid the use of generalities - "The President will change his mind on this topic" is less useful than "The President will change his policy from yes to no on this topic", because the latter prevents a tiny change from being claimed as success. Failed predictions should be marked in bold at the top of the post via an edit, leaving the rest intact.

WizKid wrote:

Prediction 5: The Republican Party will eliminate the Filibuster within the next 2 years.

Prediction 6: The Republican Party will retain control of the Senate in 2018.
Prediction 6.1: They will pick up seats in the Senate.
Prediction 6.2: They will lose control of the house.

I'm gonna go ahead and call these ones correct.

Prederick wrote:

Two predictions:

1.) Whatever Mueller finds or recommends, Trump will finish his term and run for re-election in 2020.

2.) Whether or not Trump wins in 2020, the party continues to radicalize (but especially if he loses). I have seen articles arguing that "Trumpism" cannot survive without Trump, and I feel this is wrong. Trumpism is now, in the main, conservatism. He is the Republican party.

#2 is so true. Like, thinking about this tr other day when being bombarded by political ads and realizing that there is little left of the coded language that the GOP used to trot out there - like “We want immigration control” is now, as Trump puts it, “Mexicans are rapists and gang members.” Remember when it was all about the “War on Terror?” Well, it’s now Muslim bans and registries.

He’s absolutely shattered those once ironclad codes phrases for racism and brought them out to the light and hasn’t been punished for it and has instead been rewarded for it by his two bases - the David Duke base and the ‘Conservative Republican’ base that, while they loathe to be called racist, they’re certainly ok acting and speaking like one in public now.

I’ll add an addendum to your prediction though -

In 2020, the Democrats will retake the senate and hold the house, and in doing so, will spark weekly terror attacks from people that have been allowed access to their own new party. This will cause a sundering of the Republican Party because, at some point, there can no longer be an association with that section of the party - you know, the nationalist side, but it’s going to have to get far worse before it gets to that point.

I'm calling it now.

President Pelosi. I think Mueller will not only get Trump out, but Pence will be forced to resign based on what he knew and when.

Jayhawker wrote:

I'm calling it now.

President Pelosi. I think Mueller will not only get Trump out, but Pence will be forced to resign based on what he knew and when.

You might as well go all the way and predict civil war then.

Having a hard time this morning... yeesh

[quote="BlackSheep"]

Shadout wrote:
Jayhawker wrote:

I'm calling it now.

President Pelosi. I think Mueller will not only get Trump out, but Pence will be forced to resign based on what he knew and when.

You might as well go all the way and predict civil war then.

I can’t imagine Pelosi winning. Running, sure - but the GOP will trot out their fear mongering Clinton playbook again if she’s the winner of that primary.

I know this is the prediction thread, but I can’t imagine who the Dems are going to end up with running for President at the moment with so much in flux across the country and across their own party.

I predict I’ll triple post like an idiot.

BlackSheep wrote:
Shadout wrote:
Jayhawker wrote:

I'm calling it now.

President Pelosi. I think Mueller will not only get Trump out, but Pence will be forced to resign based on what he knew and when.

You might as well go all the way and predict civil war then.

I can’t imagine Pelosi winning. Running, sure - but the GOP will trot out their fear mongering Clinton playbook again if she’s the winner of that primary.

I know this is the prediction thread, but I can’t imagine who the Dems are going to end up with running for President at the moment with so much in flux across the country and across their own party.

Speaker of the House is third in the line of succession. If Trump is removed and Pence runs away, that gets you Pelosi. It's highly unlikely while they control the senate though.

Yes, I’m talking line of succession.

It really depends on what Mueller releases. Yes, the bar in the Senate got a bit higher last night, but if what comes out is damaging enough, it think they can be forced to go along.

What we know now is that the House will get and be able to act on Mueller’s findings. There was always more danger that the House would bury any report. That has been fixed.

It’s go time.

I'm so excited to see what the house intelligence committee has been burying but there is no chance in hell it gets passed VP for line of succession.

oilypenguin wrote:

I'm so excited to see what the house intelligence committee has been burying but there is no chance in hell it gets passed VP for line of succession.

Yeah, Democrats would praise President Pence as "a return to normalcy", and complain, but still vote with him in the end to electrocute gay children, as long as corporate donors' profits remained high.

Bonus_Eruptus wrote:
oilypenguin wrote:

I'm so excited to see what the house intelligence committee has been burying but there is no chance in hell it gets passed VP for line of succession.

Yeah, Democrats would praise President Pence as "a return to normalcy", and complain, but still vote with him in the end to electrocute gay children, as long as corporate donors' profits remained high.

Kind of what I mean.

So assuming Mueller or the House digs up enough and the mood is right for impeachment (keep in mind that blew up in the faces of the Rs over the Clinton impeachment), even if Trump is guilty enough to get removal approval from the heavily-R senate, Pence would need to either die or resign in the extremely short window before Pence got another VP, I think the senate approves that appointment? Even with a ton of evidence coming from the house/Mueller about Pence, they'll want to get a replacement VP in there knowing Pelosi was next in line.

Honestly, Ds taking the house means some accountability and I think 2020 is going to be another blue wave but it's Trump or Pence until 2020 barring illness or violence.

WizKid wrote:
WizKid wrote:

Prediction 5: The Republican Party will eliminate the Filibuster within the next 2 years.

Prediction 6: The Republican Party will retain control of the Senate in 2018.
Prediction 6.1: They will pick up seats in the Senate.
Prediction 6.2: They will lose control of the house.

I'm gonna go ahead and call these ones correct.

WizKid showing folks he *earned* his name!

oilypenguin wrote:

So assuming Mueller or the House digs up enough and the mood is right for impeachment (keep in mind that blew up in the faces of the Rs over the Clinton impeachment), even if Trump is guilty enough to get removal approval from the heavily-R senate, Pence would need to either die or resign in the extremely short window before Pence got another VP, I think the senate approves that appointment? Even with a ton of evidence coming from the house/Mueller about Pence, they'll want to get a replacement VP in there knowing Pelosi was next in line.

Sorry about their luck.

The Twenty-Fifth Amendment wrote:

Section 2. Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress.

My prediction hinges on enough dirt on Pence to force him to resign. My belief is that the entire game of "shielding" him would be only be necessary if it was already clear that he knows what was going on. Can a VP be subpoenaed?

I think Mueller is going to look for justice, and one way to do that is to drive Pence off first. We'll see.

But yeah, if Pence is not forced to resign, then we are stuck. I think Mueller gets the job done now.

VP should have no formal protections and should be able to be subpoenaed or indicted.

Hell, it's not even a real job outside of presiding over the senate.

Gremlin wrote:
Gremlin wrote:

14.1 Children will continue to be taken from their families for at least a couple more days

I don't have an exact timeline, so I can't check this either way at the moment. (Accuracy: unknown)

Accuracy: massive underestimate. They're still separating children from their families, even after double-dog swearing that they weren't.

Meanwhile, another prediction:

15.1 If Trump stays in office until 2024, his direct and indirect death toll will exceed George W. Bush's direct and indirect death toll.

oilypenguin wrote:

VP should have no formal protections and should be able to be subpoenaed or indicted.

Spiro Agnew was indicted in office and pleaded no contest *before* he resigned the office. So that precedent is solid.

Robear wrote:
oilypenguin wrote:

VP should have no formal protections and should be able to be subpoenaed or indicted.

Spiro Agnew was indicted in office and pleaded no contest *before* he resigned the office. So that precedent is solid.

It was a little more complicated than that. It was really unclear if they could indict him, and their goal was to get him to agree to resign, sooner than later. Impeachment was gaining steam against Nixon, and the last think they wanted to do was impeach Nixon and seat Agnew, only to have to put the nation through another impeachment.

The negotiations for his resignation took time, and regardless of how much they believed they could indict him, they needed him to reign, not take it to the Supreme Court. That's why he got a such a sweetheart deal, with no time, and was able to keep the money. Although later, an activist group successfully sued to force Agnew to pay back a portion of the kickbacks he had taken.

This was all in Bag Man, the Rachel Maddow podcast I've recommended. It's a great story.

New year, time to update the prediction check:

https://www.gamerswithjobs.com/node/...
1.1. Climate Change: 4C by 2100. (2100)
1.2. Economy: We lose reserve currency status
1.2A. (1/1/2019: False. Inflation has been around 2.2%, partially because the Fed has ignored the president.)
1.2B. (2020)
1.2C. (2020)
1.3. Economy: Specific aspects of the economy
1.3A. (1/1/2019: False. While prices were higher in 2017 the collapse of Bitcoin has driven down GPU prices, so the end result is ambigious.)
1.3B. (2020)
1.3C. (2020)

https://www.gamerswithjobs.com/node/...
2.1. (2020)
2.2. (2020)
2.3. (2020)
2.4. (November 2018: False. The record blue wave resulted in gains across the board, though outgoing Republican legislatures tried to undermine the results.)
2.5. (2020)
2.6. (2020)
2.7. (2020)
2.8. (2020)
2.9. (2020)
2.10. (2020)
2.11. (2020)
2.12. (2020)
2.13. (2020)

3.1 (2024)

https://www.gamerswithjobs.com/node/...
4.1 (2020?) (8/1/2017 - Nope, not going to lease his private jet. They're just going to use planes they bought from a defunct Russian airline.)
4.2 Has happened a lot, including the Pittsburgh synagogue shooter and the one Gamergater/Milo intern/QAnon guy who killed his father.
4.3 (2020) Tighter abortion laws are happening, though I haven't seen teen pregnancy used much as an argument. Plenty of hand-wringing about young people not having enough sex, though.
4.4 The recounts didn't change anything, the electoral college didn't change anything, and there were a few holdouts until the 20th, though I don't think it was as widespread as I was thinking. The Women's March on the 21st cleared away a lot of anguish, at least online. So I got the first part mostly right, but was too pessimistic on the last part.

https://www.gamerswithjobs.com/node/...
5.1: (1/16) True: There were seven, five of which deserted Clinton). Though technically, Horace Greeley had more unfaithful electors, but he was losing anyway and also he was dead at the time.
5.2: (1/16) True! Before defections, Trump had a lead of 37; the Electoral College confirmed his election.
5.3: (1/16) False, unless I missed something. Or you want to count all the people not showing up for the inauguration, which I don't.

https://www.gamerswithjobs.com/node/...
6.1 (8/1/2017: Came close, with the partial repeal passing the House and falling flat on its face in the Senate. Dead for now, but only in a Cthulhu sense.)
(12/20/2017: Republicans repealed the mandate, which turned out to not kill Obamacare. The ACA has changed and fewer people have insurance than preferred, but it is not dead.)
6.2 (1/1/2019: Well, they're fighting but the primaries haven't solidified the divide yet.)
6.3 (1/1/2019: There's been a bunch of protests. And killings. But it hasn't escalated. Black Lives Matter has been less of a flashpoint than I predicted. Partially because the American Nazis jumped straight to attacking Jews.)
6.4 (8/1/2017 - Sadly true, though mostly on the right.)
6.5 (1/1/2019: So far we're getting isolated attacks but no Tulsa-style genocidal riots.)
6.6 (1/1/2019: Do massive wildfires count? Or a stupid trade war? No? We're still in a slow-walking ecological disaster, but it hasn't hit a critical point yet.)
6.7 (8/1/2017 - Oh, yeah, the Olympics are in Seoul next year.) (1/1/2019: Turns out when both Koreas are scared of the unstable genius in the White House they can do their own peace talks just fine.)
6.8 (1/1/2019: I guess SNL inspired movies hasn't been as much of a thing lately.)
6.9 (1/1/2019: All true except for the last sentence. Fortunately. They did fight a bit, but they won the House despite that.)
6.10 (1/1/2019: The October Distraction turned out to be Scary Migrant Caravan. It wasn't very effective.)
6.11 (1/1/2019: The president is currently not getting more empowered. I suspect the constant scandals and protests have kept Congress from even considering a move in that direction.)
6.12 (2019)
6.13 (2019)

https://www.gamerswithjobs.com/node/...
7.1 (2019) (1/1/2019: Not yet.)
7.2 (2019) (1/23/2017: True.)
7.3 (2019) (1/1/2019: Not yet, but movement in that direction. SESTA/FOSTA and other trends are worrying.)

https://www.gamerswithjobs.com/node/...
8.1 Well, as of May 11th Spicer is still around. (6/21/2017 - Spicer lasted six months and one day.)
8.2 This seems like a pretty safe bet, given that he's taken to passing out electoral college maps. (As of 8/1/2017 - Still doing it.)
8.3 (8/1/2017 - Yes and no: the Federal Register still works and the form of the processes is there, but the DOE, the State Department, Interior, and presumably others have abandoned their posts.) Bad but not quite as bad as I predicted.

https://www.gamerswithjobs.com/node/...
9.1 (End of 2017) - (8/7/2017 - Trump Real News Network is...his Facebook page? With reporters doing videos? And his daughter-in-law?)
9.2 (July 2017) - (8/1/2017 - Hahahahaha. Ahem. Staffing problems? They had a director of Communications who was fired before his official start date. They still have staffing problems.)
9.3 (5/10: Haven't really had a trade war yet, mostly because 45 caved.) (1/1/2019: We're losing the trade war, though there's currently a truce.)
9.4 (5/10) No war with China (yet)
9.5 (5/10) No new database so far. (1/1/2019: Because Facebook is indeed the database to a much greater extent than previously known.)

https://www.gamerswithjobs.com/node/...
10.1 (End of 2018)
(1/1/2019:

ICE remains committed to publishing the most accurate information available regarding declined detainers across the country and continues to analyze and refine its reporting methodologies. While this analysis is ongoing, the publication of the Declined Detainer Outcome Report (DDOR) will be temporarily suspended.

They've managed to publish three reports so far. So much for weekly.
10.1.a (1/1/2019: I'm not finding recent data, but looks like its still undercounted. The FBI has been stepping up their efforts, though.)
10.2 (End of 2018) - (5/10) CNN, NYT, and Fox of all places have been barred on occasion. It's not a complete shut-out, though, and InfoWar's press credentials are only weekly, with regular press credentials pending. And, in a twist I couldn't have predicted, the entire press corps was barred from a meeting with the Russian Foreign Minister, but the Russian state-run media was let in.
(11/7/2018: Jim Acosta of CNN was barred, and then reinstated after media outcry.)
10.3: (2017-01-30): I'm happy to report I was way wrong on this one: four of the journalists had the charges dropped by 1/30. (5/10) Though other journalists have been arrested...
10.4: (5/10) Well, they're leaking even more...(8/1/2017): Ha. Hahahahahahaha.
(1/1/2019: hahahahahahahahahahahahah)

https://www.gamerswithjobs.com/node/...
11.1 (2020)

https://www.gamerswithjobs.com/node/...
12.1 (1/1/2019: We've got at least two confirmed payoffs, and maybe more. The National Enquirer is cooperating with the Mueller investigation.)

https://www.gamerswithjobs.com/node/...
13.1 (2019)
13.2 (2019)

https://www.gamerswithjobs.com/node/...

Gremlin wrote:
Gremlin wrote:
Gremlin wrote:

14.1 Children will continue to be taken from their families for at least a couple more days

I don't have an exact timeline, so I can't check this either way at the moment. (Accuracy: unknown)

Accuracy: massive underestimate. They're still separating children from their families, even after double-dog swearing that they weren't.

They're also weighing plans to force the parents to decide, because I guess Sophie's Choice is a blueprint for this administration.

14.2 We won't get any photos from the sites where the girls are being held.

To the best of my knowledge there aren't any. I certainly haven't seen any, and at this point many of the children have been scattered throughout the foster care system for detained children. (Accuracy: presumed true)

We never did get photos of the conditions the girls were being held in, near as I can tell. Though the audio recordings were harrowing enough.

14.3 By the end of summer, there will still be thousands of children who have not been reunited with their families.

It's September and there are still about 500 children being held. (Accuracy: partial. I overestimated the numbers, but it still happened.)

1/1/2019: There's still hundreds of kids separated from their families.

14.4 There will be many hot takes that praise Trump for solving the crisis, ignoring that it was an unnecessary crisis that he manufactured himself.

Unless there was a wave of hot takes I missed, the ongoing crisis looks like it means no one gets praise for solving it. (Well, he praised himself, but that doesn't count.) (Accuracy: missed)

The press was better than I gave it credit for, the president was worse.

14.5 In 20 days, the Flores Settlement will kick in. The administration will respond by separating families again, and blame the courts.

I was wrong: instead they dithered for sixty days and are now trying to get rid of the Flores rule.
(Accuracy: missed. Turns out I underestimated how awful the administration was going to be.)

I suspect this contributed to the recent deaths of children at the border.

https://www.gamerswithjobs.com/node/...
15.1: We still don't know the identity of the anonymous NYT op-ed writer.
15.2: No accusations, mostly because the scandals have moved so fast I think everyone has mostly forgotten it
15.3: As of 1/1/2019, we still don't know.

https://www.gamerswithjobs.com/node/...
16.1: (2024) - though this is kind of a repeat of 11.1. I guess I'm really convinced by it or something.
I'm going to definitely count Yemen towards this, depending on how it gets resolved.

My summary right now is that I'm too pessimistic on long-term trends and too optimistic on short-term cruelty. The worst stuff that I predicted hasn't happened yet--partially because the administration is way too disorganized. But they've also done some ridiculously cruel things I didn't see coming, like backing Saudi Arabia after they dismembered a journalist with a bone saw while he was still alive.

Gremlin wrote:

https://www.gamerswithjobs.com/node/...
5.1: (1/16) True: There were seven, five of which deserted Clinton). Though technically, Horace Greeley had more unfaithful electors, but he was losing anyway and also he was dead at the time.
5.2: (1/16) True! Before defections, Trump had a lead of 37; the Electoral College confirmed his election.
5.3: (1/16) False, unless I missed something. Or you want to count all the people not showing up for the inauguration, which I don't.

Maybe you can count 5.3: I vaguely remember talk of a last minute push to get enough states in on the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact in time to make a difference, but I can't find anything about it now.

- Senator Mitt Romney will run for President in 2020.
- He will lose in the primaries.
- He will lose Utah.

He will not lose Utah. I mean not to single you out.
But I think he is/was thinking about primarying Trump
hence the recent challenge regarding the shutdown.
I'm not sure it had any pull or as much pull as some
hoped. At least it probably was not enough to try
again, whatever that means to his primary expectations.

I may have too much Rachel Maddow on the brain but
the appointing of the New AG that was responsible for
the Iran/Contra pardons will be bigly.

I like how (at least on my screen), the above comment came out formatted like a poem.

Work habits carrying over. I respond to tickets all day
and for convenience sake write things to be easy to
read on mobile

what kind of mormon loses utah i mean
theyre all the same under their clothes
but over their skin
the skin as white as republicamerica
everyone knows what he stands for
and mormons know he wont shed
his second skin like a snake in the
desert sand.

H.P. Lovesauce wrote:

what kind of mormon loses utah i mean
theyre all the same under their clothes
but over their skin
the skin as white as republicamerica
everyone knows what he stands for
and mormons know he wont shed
his second skin like a snake in the
desert sand.

- e e lovesauce

17.1 - NASA is among the agencies affected by the shutdown. The Mars projects were already on fairly tight schedules, and this is likely going to cause them to slip significantly. We will not land humans on Mars within Trump's presidency.

Gremlin wrote:

17.1 - NASA is among the agencies affected by the shutdown. The Mars projects were already on fairly tight schedules, and this is likely going to cause them to slip significantly. We will not land humans on Mars within Trump's presidency.

So least we won’t have to suffer a golden Trump sign every time we look at mars through telescopes?

A few predictions:

18.1) The shutdown will continue at least through mid-February (let's say February 15).

18.2) A large number of federal workers will become basically a 21st-century Bonus Army, protesting and possibly engaging in civil disobedience (camping out near the White House) by the time the shutdown holds up paycheck #5.

18.3) The shutdown will not end until TSA workers go on strike.