[Discussion] Brexit means Brexit

Discuss the political fallout and other issues around Britain's exit, Brexit for short, from the EU.

For the sake of clarity, I'm including the full text of Article 50.

Article 50 wrote:

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

In theory (assuming she could survive a no confidence vote) the options for a 2nd ref could be

Current Deal
No Deal
Remain

DanB wrote:

In theory (assuming she could survive a no confidence vote) the options for a 2nd ref could be

Current Deal
No Deal
Remain

That would split the Brexit vote too far I think. It would make remain far the more likely result. Brexiters would demand No Deal in an all or nothing referendum.

this is all starting to sound like:

If there's a second referendum, Remain will lose. Because Leave cheat.

Sorbicol wrote:
DanB wrote:

In theory (assuming she could survive a no confidence vote) the options for a 2nd ref could be

Current Deal
No Deal
Remain

That would split the Brexit vote too far I think. It would make remain far the more likely result. Brexiters would demand No Deal in an all or nothing referendum.

Not if they use a preferential voting system

What is even going on anymore?

The only things I've been able to conclude from recent days are that:

1.) Theresa May must regret the day she agreed to be PM
2.) Tommy Robinson & friends are more in control of the Tories than May is
3.) This is almost certainly going to end in some level of disaster

Prederick wrote:

What is even going on anymore?

Leavers be like:

IMAGE(https://media.giphy.com/media/PjdgEh8P9Qr28/giphy.gif)

IMAGE(https://media.giphy.com/media/5Q4GDOdmjY7Bu/source.gif)

Holy...

bnpederson wrote:

My god.

What a sh*t show the Conservative party in this country are:

Teresa May faces leadership challenge

A no-confidence vote today for May.

I gotta admit, at this point, I almost feel bad for her. It feels like she's trying to find the best way to undertake a bad idea, and her party is determined to do it the most pig-headed way possible.

If I were a betting man, I'd put $20 on the result being a no-deal Brexit. I wonder if that's available on William Hill?

EDIT: DANGIT, I CAN'T EVEN ACCESS THEM OR PADDY POWER FROM THE U.S.

Would one of you Brits be willing to put down a tenner for me? I promise, I'm good for it.

Prederick wrote:

A no-confidence vote today for May.

I gotta admit, at this point, I almost feel bad for her. It feels like she's trying to find the best way to undertake a bad idea, and her party is determined to do it the most pig-headed way possible.

If I were a betting man, I'd put $20 on the result being a no-deal Brexit. I wonder if that's available on William Hill?

EDIT: DANGIT, I CAN'T EVEN ACCESS THEM OR PADDY POWER FROM THE U.S.

Would one of you Brits be willing to put down a tenner for me? I promise, I'm good for it.

If you put it on Brexit being cancelled I think you’d get a better return.

The conservative parties problem here is the DUP. They only way they’ll vote with the conservatives is if they go for a soft Brexit that keeps the whole of the UK in the single market/customs union. They have been very consistent about that - that NI is treated no differently from the rest of the UK, and there will be no hard border in Ireland. That’s the only scenario where that’ll happen.

Any other result they’ll vote with labour if and when Corbyn goes for a vote of no confidence in the Government, which I expect he’ll do tomorrow if May loses.

Once again the Tories inability to govern in the national interest irreparably damages the UK for their own internal interests.

@ClockworkHouse

The problem is Remoaners don't *believe* the car will fy.

The thing that leaves me absolutely dumbstruck with the Tories is that they act like they don't realise we can *see* them. Like this entire porcine facef*ck hasn't been front page news for years. That their catastrophic mismanagement of the entire situation isn't glaringly obvious to bloody everyone.

I don't get how they don't just die screaming of shame. How does one develop that stratospheric a level of unwarranted self confidence?

Maq wrote:

I don't get how they don't just die screaming of shame. How does one develop that stratospheric a level of unwarranted self confidence?

Public Schooling

Maq wrote:

The thing that leaves me absolutely dumbstruck with the Tories is that they act like they don't realise we can *see* them. Like this entire porcine facef*ck hasn't been front page news for years. That their catastrophic mismanagement of the entire situation isn't glaringly obvious to bloody everyone.

I don't get how they don't just die screaming of shame. How does one develop that stratospheric a level of unwarranted self confidence?

The truth is very simple. Most voters simply don’t care. In many ways we end up with what we deserve, it’s what we do about it that counts.

And right now there are still enough idiots who think Brexit is a good idea for it probably not really to matter. Although that might change if Boris becomes PM.

I heard May ranting about how getting rid of her would result in a Corbin government. Are Brits so frightened of that that they prefer this brand of chaos to a Labor party leadership?

Paleocon wrote:

I heard May ranting about how getting rid of her would result in a Corbin government. Are Brits so frightened of that that they prefer this brand of chaos to a Labor party leadership?

Narrator: They are.

Yonder wrote:
Paleocon wrote:

I heard May ranting about how getting rid of her would result in a Corbin government. Are Brits so frightened of that that they prefer this brand of chaos to a Labor party leadership?

Narrator: They are.

Absolutely this. I’ve already said this, but I’ll say it again, Nothing the Conservatives have done with handling Brexit, including calling the referendum in the first place has been done for the benefit of the UK and it’s population. It’s been done to attempt to resolve the eternal Pro/Anti European division at the heart of Tory party, or stay in power at all costs The threat of a Corbyn government isn’t for the benefit of the electorate, it’s for Tory MPs only.

Sorbicol wrote:

Absolutely this. I’ve already said this, but I’ll say it again, Nothing the Conservatives have done with handling Brexit, including calling the referendum in the first place has been done for the benefit of the UK and it’s population. It’s been done to attempt to resolve the eternal Pro/Anti European division at the heart of Tory party, or stay in power at all costs The threat of a Corbyn government isn’t for the benefit of the electorate, it’s for Tory MPs only.

So much this. Brexit or no Brexit, we are still left with a Tory party made up of 50% pro Europeans and 50% anti Europeans, so whichever way it goes they’ll still be riven down the middle. For the most part I believe in political parties being inclusive and there being room for all points of view, but in this case I’ll make an exception and recommend euthanasia.

chiefsheep wrote:

but in this case I’ll make an exception and recommend euthanasia.

The tradition in this country is to be hung, drawn and quartered and the have the bits displayed on poles in the Tower of London (I’m JOKING. honest)

Thing is, all of it changes nothing. The Tories still don’t have the majority they need to force anything through parliament, the EU will not renogotiate the deal, the only alternatives are No deal or a GE/second referendum. Doesn’t matter who’s in charge of the party.

She's 'won' 200 for, 117 against I suspect that's a lot more than Rees-Mogg was expecting. Probably enough to make the ERG very very sorry indeed.

Unless they vote with Labour when they call a vote of no confidence in the government tomorrow.

Labour and the SNP and probably the Lib Dem's I would think.

pyxistyx wrote:

Labour and the SNP and probably the Lib Dem's I would think.

Oh that's a given. I'm also apparently wrong about the size of her majority. Most political commentators here think those are bad numbers. Shows what I know.

The Guardian breaks down what the totals might mean. Looks like opposition was saying that 80 against would be a good showing for them. The Guardian had 100 against as a sign of real weakness for May and 130 against as purely bad.

Sorbicol wrote:
Yonder wrote:
Paleocon wrote:

I heard May ranting about how getting rid of her would result in a Corbin government. Are Brits so frightened of that that they prefer this brand of chaos to a Labor party leadership?

Narrator: They are.

Absolutely this. I’ve already said this, but I’ll say it again, Nothing the Conservatives have done with handling Brexit, including calling the referendum in the first place has been done for the benefit of the UK and it’s population. It’s been done to attempt to resolve the eternal Pro/Anti European division at the heart of Tory party, or stay in power at all costs The threat of a Corbyn government isn’t for the benefit of the electorate, it’s for Tory MPs only.

Well, just to clarify Paleocon’s question, it’s actually the Tories fear that the Brit’s aren’t scared of Corbyn. Since the Fixed-Term Parliament Act of 2011 it’s a whole lot harder to actually get a general election than before requiring two-third majority. The UK only got the last one because both Labour and the Tories voted for it. Neither side want one now for different reasons so it’s not happening.

The Tories will avoid a general election now until the last minute. So, 2022. Post the Brexit process Labour will make sure that stink is all over the Tories before really pushing it.

The depressing issue is as much as I like Corbyn—he was my MP for years when I lived in Holloway—he's a Euroskeptic himself.

Ivan Rogers's 9 Lessons of Brexit

Ivan Rogers, the UK former permanent representative to the EU, goes through the current situation. It's a great read, I particularly like his take on a second vote. There is a different timeline where he wasn't forced to resign that I think I would prefer to live in.