NFL 2018: Week 13

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The Ballad of Blake Bortles has finally come to a close. Well, until Cody Kessler gets a concussion and the Great Bork gets his job back thanks to the Jags bringing literally no one else in this offseason. Even the Bills picked up AJ McCarron to compete with Josh Allen and Nathan Peterman, but theirs was always a lost season with a look toward the future.

While we could talk about how re-signing Bortles and not finding more OL was the reason the Jags 2018 season is in free fall, I want to pour one out for The Good Place, which will now have to work much harder to be funny.

IMAGE(https://78.media.tumblr.com/4374daf2165e080008e94af375da9d1d/tumblr_p29qesb20r1qch0kpo2_400.gif)

Although, maybe the show should focus more on itself and less on football:

Moving on.

Hey, the Browns are doing better without Hue! And without Todd Haley. OC Kitchens has reportedly simplified and tailored things for Baker Mayfield. The results of the incredibly small sample are fairly positive:

Not only that, but when a coach is fired and then quickly hired by a division rival you'd think that coach would help the new team. Unfortunately for the Bengals they brought in a guy who was so out of touch with the team he used to run that the Bengals got absolutely smashed by the Browns. Supposedly the Browns didn't even bother changing their audibles and signs. Not that Hue would've known them.

But the Bengals are the Bungles and will continue bungling as, believe it or not, Hue Jackson is being considered for the Head Coaching job in Cincy after Marvin Lewis is gone. I'll be honest, this sounds like horsesh*t to me, planted by Hue Jackson and his media friends. Dude knows that a few leaks will get him a lot of good press and he's cashing in on some of those favors.

Drew Brees is continuing on his MVP path while having a down week with only 68% of his passes being completed for a measly 171 yards. Although he did manage to throw five TDs on only 22 passes, so he's clearly doing something right. His seasonal completion percentage has dropped a bit down to 76%, which is only 4% higher than the record he set last year. What a loser! To go with that drop, Michael Thomas' catch rate has dropped to a paltry 89%. I hear he's likely on the verge of being cut for his lack of effort.

Seriously, these numbers don't make any sense to me. The offensive explosion this year has exploded in ways I never thought possible. I mean even Josh Allen is avoiding the Bortles label with his play! Oh, wait, no, he's absolutely in line to be the next Bortles: Low completion percentage, lack of thrown TDs, high INT rate and lots and lots of sacks. At least the Jags didn't trade up for Blakey.

News flash! Amari Cooper is still a great route runner. I'm sure he enjoyed himself a big ol turkey sandwhich after feasting on Josh Norman and the other Washington corners. The key? He's being targeted more often. Shocker! I found this play to be especially tasty myself.

The Pats got back Gronk and RB Sony Michel to form the team we all hate who will now make it to the Super Bowl for the 738th time in a row. *yawn*

I feel bad for soon-to-be-ROTY Saquon Barkley that he continues to be brilliant but it's all for naught. It's nice to see the Eagles generate pass rush again, but sadly that won't be replicated again because the only player more statue-like than Manning is Brady and I have a feeling they won't be meeting Brady again this year.

There are currently three impressive winning streaks with the Colts at five in a row, the Texans at an astounding eight games in a row and the Saints in possible "peaking too early" status of 10 games in row. The only notable losing streak is the Jags at seven Bortles in a row.

The Seahawks beat the Titans to quietly have a winning record and shot at a Wild Card slot. Who saw that coming this year?

Mullensanity came back to earth. Am I the only one who reads his name as "Mullet" every time you see it? Mulletsanity would be more exciting than the offense the Niners currently have.

Leonard Fournette is a moron and won't be playing this week. Not that it matters since I traded him away in fantasy football and the Jags are wholly out of contention, but perhaps he's making a business decision and decided breaking his hand would be a good way to end his season and save his knees further punishment?

The Chargers lost Melvin Gordon for a few weeks (and not IR, thankfully) but have Joey Bosa back so they're ready to roll. The Chargers are now my dark horse for the Super Bowl because they're the most road tested team having played 11 straight games away from home.

Without Albert Wilson the Dolphins continue to be the world's most boring team. Is anyone interesting on the team? f*ck, I'm starting to think they need to fire Adam Gase and hire Jeff Fisher just to be more interesting.

Someone explain to me how the Broncos beat the Steelers?!?! The Broncos gave up over 500 yards on D and still won. I know, I know, turnovers, but in a game where your kicker throws a touchdown to your LT you are supposed to win! It's in the rules!

Okay, enough from me, hope you all had a good Thanksgiving. Real football begins now.

I look forward to only one more month of suffering.

Hoping this is going to be an interesting Super Bowl. Some of the top teams are looking like they could make for some fantastic games in the play-offs.

garion333 wrote:

While we could talk about how re-signing Bortles and not finding more OL was the reason the Jags 2018 season is in free fall, I want to pour one out for The Good Place, which will now have to work much harder to be funny.

IMAGE(https://78.media.tumblr.com/4374daf2165e080008e94af375da9d1d/tumblr_p29qesb20r1qch0kpo2_400.gif)

They're going to have to work harder? Really?

garion333 wrote:

The Seahawks beat the SUCKY ASS SUCK-ASS PANTHERS, WHO SUCK to quietly have a winning record and shot at a Wild Card slot. Who saw that coming this year?

FTFY. You had us confused with another team that can't seem to stop big plays either.

Let's talk about the Jaguars.

Currently, on the 2019 books, the Jags have the least amount of cap space. They are about $6-10 million in the red. (Exact number unknown until the 2019 cap has a firm base value).

They can cut Marcell Dareus with 0 dead money, and free up $10.5m. Boom, done. Out of the red.

They have around $6.5m of 2018 cap space that can roll over into 2019, and roll they will.

However, the team still has little cap money at this point, and has a number of things it needs to do:
1) Sign Yannick Ngakoue to a long-term deal
2) Sign Myles Jack to a long-term deal
3) Do something about the QB position
4) I don't know, maybe find some other guys that can play on offense?

Clearly, more cuts have to happen.

Cutting Malik Jackson frees up $11m, with $4m of dead money. Done.

There's a bunch of guys clustered in the $4-6m range with $0 dead money if released: Abry Jones, Carlos Hyde, Jermey Parnell, Brandon Linder, Barry Church.

Linder is the only name on that list that is 100% safe. Abry Jones is probably safe as well as he would be the starting NT in Dareus's place (as it is now, he already has near-parity with Dareus on snap counts: 385 for Dareus to 365 for Jones).

Barry Church is an easy cut.

Jermey Parnell is the only Jaguar offensive lineman who can stay healthy and kinda-sorta pass block, and at $6m would be the 37th highest paid tackle (14th among right tackles), which probably is about right (he's 36th in PFF grading among all tackles), so he might not be as gone as I expected previously.

As for Hyde, well, this next game will go a long way to determining if he's someone to keep as a rotational back with Fournette or not. Early production hasn't been great, and the 3rd string offensive line isn't helping matters any.

More cuts: Austin Seferian-Jenkins can go, freeing up $4.75m with a little under $2m dead. Niles Paul can go to free up $2m with 500k dead.

Now we get to the last couple of big pieces remaining: Calais Campbell and Blake Bortles.

Cutting Campbell would free up $9.5m with $5m dead, but he's also by far the only Jag veteran D-lineman who is earning his salary. Feels like keeping Campbell and replacing Dareus and Jackson would give the Jags a cheaper D-line without moving the performance needle much.

Bortles... ahh. The terribleness of his extension really sets in here. Spotrac lists 2020 as the Jags' expected "escape" from the deal. Doing it in 2019 means you're looking at $16.5m of dead money and only $4.5m of freed up cap space.

Couple things can happen there. If they can manage to trade him, then it becomes $10m of dead money and $11m of freed up cap space, as the $6.5m of guaranteed salary on his deal would go to the new team. But is any team willing to take on Bortles with a $16m cap figure? It would likely have to be an Osweiler-ian deal in which the Jags give up pick compensation.

Other option is to designate Bortles a "June 1st" cut, in which case the dead money gets split between 2019 and 2020, and they get $9.5m of free space from the move in 2019, almost as much as the trade option, but of course push $5m of dead space to 2020.

Then of course, where does their next QB come from? Trading for someone like Derek Carr would mean needing to get $20m of space on their cap to fit him in. June 1st'ing Bortles plus cutting Seferian-Jenkins and Church would make enough room, leaving the other cuts for addressing the rest of the roster. Such a trade means giving up draft picks again, but at the same time, a QB on the free agent market will bring a higher cap figure than $20m, so trading for someone whose signing bonus stays behind with his old team might be the way to go while they're still paying signing bonus given to Bortles.

Drafting a rookie QB would of course be even easier cap-wise, you're looking at around $4m for the 3-7 overall pick range the Jags are increasingly likely to select from.

No matter how you look at it, the offseason is going to be a big salary culling for the Jags. The good news is that a lot of those front-loaded deals are easy to get out of. The bad news is that they didn't manage to structure that way the one deal that they most desperately need to get out from under.

Sorry about the lack of formatting, had to post because work kept getting in the way.

cube wrote:
garion333 wrote:

While we could talk about how re-signing Bortles and not finding more OL was the reason the Jags 2018 season is in free fall, I want to pour one out for The Good Place, which will now have to work much harder to be funny.

IMAGE(https://78.media.tumblr.com/4374daf2165e080008e94af375da9d1d/tumblr_p29qesb20r1qch0kpo2_400.gif)

They're going to have to work harder? Really?

I honestly have no clue what you mean.

Washington claimed Reuben Foster from waivers.

The 911 call by the alleged victim was released. Foster supposedly slapped her and broke her phone.

This is the very same woman who recanted the previous allegation against Foster, and again, she is someone who previously spent time in jail for making false domestic violence accusations.

Regardless of the validity of her claims, though, Foster should be nowhere near this woman after the previous incident, and did so apparently in violation of his agreement with the team, which is why the team isn't bothering to wait around to see whether or not this accusation has any truth to it.

sh*t, I could have sworn he would go to Dallas.
Shame on you Skins. At the very least the guy can't stay out of trouble.
Good news is that we may reclaim first place as Dallas plays the Saints. (of course I just jinxed them)

Damn legion. TLDR on your Jaguars post. Maybe fixing the 49ers would be easier?

Washington does this on the same day they announced and suddenly went back on after the backlash of selling a Sean Taylor plushie on the 11th anniversary of his death.

WTF?

Stele wrote:

Damn legion. TLDR on your Jaguars post. Maybe fixing the 49ers would be easier?

The 49ers are much easier to fix. They have ~$65m of cap space next year, before they roll any of their 3rd-most cap space from 2018 into the equation. The only teams in better cap shape are Indy and Cleveland.

49ers just need to acquire players. They desperately need at pass rusher, secondary, and wide receiver, and then some depth in a number of other spots. Garoppolo should be healthy in plenty of time for OTAs, and Mullens is clearly a good QB2 in the making (and he'd be even better if they had someone at WR for him to throw to, he's not the limiting factor in the pass game right now). The offensive line group is solid albeit with need at the depth spots (and another tackle to begin developing for when Staley retires and McGlinchey flips over to the left side).

The entire Niners defense will look better if they can get a couple of edge guys that can apply some pressure, and shore up a couple secondary holes with even just-OK players. Sherman has been good, they need someone solid opposite him, and someone at safety that can stay healthy enough to end the revolving door of injury replacement. Fred Warner has been a gem at MLB as a rookie, filling the role Foster was supposed to, though they need to fill the void at OLB that Warner was going to.

They need to land solid starter players in their early draft picks like they did this year (McGlinchey and Warner), and they need to pull in a couple key free agents plus some depth FAs. Wide receiver looks terrible in free agency this year, but there'll be options for almost all of the team's defensive holes.

Stele wrote:

Damn legion. TLDR on your Jaguars post.

Cut Bortles.

Cut guys with no dead money or little of it.

Get Carr.

TLDRs are just so reductionist and unsatisfying.

As long as we are spared the Patriots in the Superbowl there should be some interesting matchups. Would love to see Andy Reid win a SB.

I would too, Guru.

TheGameguru wrote:

Would love to see Andy Reid win a SB.

LeapingGnome wrote:

I would too, Guru.

+1, although I would also accept Drew Brees getting another.

Quick tangent:

Deadspin’s weekly Gruden coloring is a delight.

Hrdina wrote:

although I would also accept Drew Brees falling into a deep hole and being eaten by a pack of rabid badgers.

FTFY

A Saints Super Bowl would be one that I (probably) wouldn't watch, and I've watched a bunch.

I'm all-in for the Saints to make the Super Bowl because it needs to not be the Rams, and I'm not sure I can count on the Bears to be the one to make it. But Bears would be OK too.

*Legion* wrote:

I'm all-in for the Saints to make the Super Bowl because it needs to not be the Rams, and I'm not sure I can count on the Bears to be the one to make it. But Bears would be OK too.

This a rivalry thing or some other distaste for the team?

He's a niners fan. No love for the Rams.

We niners fans miss the 90s when we beat the Rams 17 times in a row. 2 free wins every year was nice.

I would be pro Saints if not for Sean Peyton.. f*ck that guy.

If the season was done, your playoff teams would be ...
... Saints, Rams, DC, Bears, Vikings, Cowboys in the NFC
... Chiefs, Pats, Ravens, Chargers, Texans and Steelers in the AFC

I guess that's good. Chiefs-Saints (or Rams, Round 2) would be bonkers. Chargers have won 8 games somehow with a 50-year-old Marmalard under center. And the Bears are fun.

I think Seattle gets in there, now that Alex Smith's leg exploded. Maybe the Colts, too, but they're got a much tougher test.

Carolina's probably done. The Browns in two weeks is not looking like a gimme, and the Panthers finish up with Aints, 28-3 and the Aints again.

Good article from Robert Mays @ the Ringer on Derwin James. Milkman is rolling over in his NFL-related grave.

Wondering why a bunch of Eagles players were trending on the Twittarz I found that a bunch of injured players are going into practice today. Sidney Jones, Rasul Douglas, and most notably Darren Sproles. Maddox, Mills, and Hicks are probably gone the rest of the season.

The feeling I get from people is that Eagles can make a last minute comeback. I don't see it. Maybe it would be nice to have Sproles out there one last time before he retires – and given how injury prone he's been it would probably be a good idea – but I think a major issue with the Eagles this year has been the defensive plays and coaching. It seems like the Eagles were instructed to never tackle, only dive for the feet, and it keeps allowing opposing players to just run on by and get a ton of yards. Garion mentioned that it is cautionary defense due to injuries, but I feel like it's a major fear of penalties (and hey, I can see why if you buy into the local belief that the refs just hate Philly, though this year especially there's been no particular basis for that conspiracy). I don't think having Jones and Douglas back will help.

Ah well. Maybe I'm just too much of a pessimist or I just don't understand the game enough.

Going low is only the way you can go when you take bad angles.

The Eagles are entirely reliant on the pass rush to take the pressure off the DBs because of lack of talent and injuries in the secondary. The good news is Washington has injuries up and down their OL, though Adrian Peterson might have a field day if the Eagles are as bad at tackling as you say they are.

NFC East 3 way tie for first with 9/7 records!

garion333 wrote:

Going low is only the way you can go when you take bad angles.

The Eagles are entirely reliant on the pass rush to take the pressure off the DBs because of lack of talent and injuries in the secondary. The good news is Washington has injuries up and down their OL, though Adrian Peterson might have a field day if the Eagles are as bad at tackling as you say they are.

I was watching a bit of the Titans vs. Texans game last week, and at one point I think it was the Texans rusher that broke through and managed to gain quite a few yards, almost making a touchdown. As I watched the run I could only imagine Eagles defense ineffectually diving into the turf at the runner's feet.

I understand the primary reason is, as you said before, injury avoidance combined with avoiding helmet-on-helmet contact. I also see other teams doing it that aren't the Eagles. The problem is other teams seem to do the dive occasionally as opposed to exclusively. Eagles defense has one move: go for the legs. And the problem with going for the legs is that if you miss, you still gotta get up and they don't. The second problem is if you lack a good hold, then you're still on the ground and at best you slowed them down.

There are so many third downs the Eagles gave away because no one was ready or willing to make a real tackle. Add in the insistence on zone defense, giving plenty of receivers tons of space to catch and make a run, and it's no wonder why opposing teams have been marching right down the fields. It's especially frustrating when you see, say, Aghalor catch a ball and immediately he's plowed over. You want to just march into the Eagles video room and ask Jim Schwartz why his players are incapable of the same thing.

In a prior thread Legion mentioned that the modern NFL defense is focused on trying to create turnovers and sacks. As of late, Eagles defense can't even generate much of either, with the exception of what I believe is Malcom Jenkins' interception that made an Eagles victory possible this past Sunday. That, and as has already been made a joke, Pat Shurmer's second half coaching decisions.

Maybe GameGuru will have some more knowledgeable counter-arguments. Again, I'm the football newbie here so I could just be disappointed at things that aren't actually poor decisions or problems, just things that seem baffling to an inexperienced viewer. I just feel like this time last year everyone was talking about how you couldn't stand a chance with a rushing offense against the Eagles defense, and this year Eagles defense can't stop nothing.

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