Hurricane Florence - Evacuate All

PurEvil wrote:

No, projected wind speeds.

Not sure that's any less eye-popping, but I appreciate the clarification.

Jonman wrote:

Are the numbers on that dick-graphic inches of rain?

:shock:

The part of the graphic that was (intentionally) cut off says "NWS Sustained Wind Forecast (MPH)".

deftly wrote:

I'm not sure who "National Hurricane Updates" really is, aside from possibly a secret Russian click-farming ring.

Close? They make a hurricane tracker app.

(Facebook link).

From what the news in Atlanta is saying (I'm not sure how other stations / parts of the country interpret the data or if everyone is on the same page) but they have said that when Florence hits the coast there could be isolated areas of 40 inches of rain. I've dealt with just over 3 feet of snow and that was crazy, I could not imagine that all being water.

Snow to water is also around 8-12 inches of snow per *inch* of rain, isn't that the conversion? So 3 feet of snow is, like, 3-4" of water...

I've flown over flooded areas of Houston and even from a plane it was clear that that much water in a short period will f*ck up your life in huge ways. (That, and the GWJers who narrated the whole event...). I want to stay far away from that stuff.

I've spent a little bit of time in Charleston, S.C. over the last couple of years. There's definitely a part of me that's fascinated to see what places I know look like post-storm.

There's another part of me that's ashamed of that fascination.

re Snow to rain - I was always taught 1 mm of rain = 1 cm of snow. So, 40 inches of rain is about 1000 mm, so about 10 metres of snow.

In the period of 3 days or so.

Between that, and the storm surge (which I have seen some sites predict at 15-20 feet), the coastal areas may look like [insert deity of choice] looked down and said "ROFLNOPE"

My sister's in-laws are planning on riding it out on the barrier islands in NC. Hope it goes well for them.

In the midlands of SC, we're in a place that's not in any flood zones, so my main concern is us losing power. It's going to be a lot worse for people who dealt with flooding a few years ago. I also worry for some stray kitties we've started feeding. They're now living under our deck and we've got 4 kittens. They've been eating dry food this week, so I hope they'll be okay.

Poor husband does IT for a state agency and has been doing work from home and going in at some points. He's worried about work next week. That'll likely be quite a pain.

Having been to those parts of the coast, there's significant sections where the water rising 4 feet would put entire islands and cities underwater. (The climate change has already been raising the sea levels along the NC coast in particular. This won't help.)

Jonman wrote:

I've spent a little bit of time in Charleston, S.C. over the last couple of years. There's definitely a part of me that's fascinated to see what places I know look like post-storm.

There's another part of me that's ashamed of that fascination.

My parents are way inland but potentially within the zone of effect, so I've been watching this with a mixture of fascination and trepidation.

IMAGE(https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/sVFd1AbBj8nAN6bzNABDsjj7WpI=/1100x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/CRK4EX5NMVFZTFHYYE6DVE4KU4.png)

Jonman wrote:

I've spent a little bit of time in Charleston, S.C. over the last couple of years. There's definitely a part of me that's fascinated to see what places I know look like post-storm.

There's another part of me that's ashamed of that fascination.

I am in the exact same situation. If only because this amount of rain and wind is not something I have ever experienced. Hellish snowstorm, been there, done that.

I lived in Charleston for 17 years, including living on one the barrier islands for Hugo. The city has always flooded in significant storms but from following the local news and from our friends' reports, the city now routinely has localized flooding with even moderate thunderstorms at high tide. I really hope our friends and everyone else makes it through ok.

Up here in the mountains we have already had a very wet summer with numerous mud slides and frequent river side flooding. The ground is already saturated so if we end up with even 5 inches of rain over a couple of days we will have more of the same and potentially much worse.

We're in Charleston and we plan to ride it out. Looks like the biggest impacts will be north of us. Hoping for the best, preparing for the worst. All of our outside goo-gaa is in the garage. The generator is fueled up...we're ready to go.

IMAGE(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dm-bVrEX0AEBK1K.jpg)

Good news: it's now a Category 2 storm, the winds having slowed down. Bad news: it's grown in size, so the storm surge, rainfall, flooding, and coastal erosion will likely be worse. The storm is enormous, and there are comparisons to Ike (Cat 2) and Sandy (Cat 1), some of the most destructive storms.

Here's the damage from Ike, courtesy of ABC:
IMAGE(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dm-FdRCWwAA-Tp8.jpg)

Plus, it's moving slowly, slow enough to be at the coast for at least one tide cycle, meaning the coast will be hit with the storm surge at high tide.

IMAGE(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dm-ZOpHWwAIuECx.jpg)

Livecams:
Oceanana Pier Surf

Myrtle Beach, SC

Frying Pan Ocean Cam (34 miles offshore, with bonus Shark Cam)
Wilmington Tower

Stay safe, everyone.

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/P89ddm6.gif)

PWAlessi wrote:

We're in Charleston and we plan to ride it out. Looks like the biggest impacts will be north of us. Hoping for the best, preparing for the worst. All of our outside goo-gaa is in the garage. The generator is fueled up...we're ready to go.

Good luck. Looks like you'll miss the worst of the wind but I suspect you'll get plenty of rain.

N.C. is bracing for the absolute worst. The NC coast from Myrtle to the OBX will get hammered. The eastern third of the state (Wilmington and Fayetteville especially and probably Greenville, too) is expecting a ton of rain, plus tropical storm winds. All the rain that falls in central and western NC will end up down that way, too.

Don't rest up there in the Triangle. It's still close enough to the coast that it'll get a lot of rain and a lot of wind, which has the nasty habit of blowing big-ass pine trees onto power lines and people's houses.

I'm in the middle part of the state. We're expecting enough wind and rain to be inconvenient but not catastrophic.

MathGoddess wrote:

My sister's in-laws are planning on riding it out on the barrier islands in NC.

I really have to think that's spectacularly unwise. Any chance of convincing them otherwise?

It's a bit late now, I suspect...

Good luck to everyone. Having had a lot of family on the gulf coast for years, it's always a bit extra scary when the rating drops and everyone acts like it isn't still a monster storm. Hoping for the best.

ColdForged wrote:
MathGoddess wrote:

My sister's in-laws are planning on riding it out on the barrier islands in NC.

I really have to think that's spectacularly unwise. Any chance of convincing them otherwise?

Not a bit. She's worried but also thinks they haven't left for any hurricanes and won't start now.

I'm glad our son is still living at home. In a few more years it'll be strange to be worried about his choices but have no control over him. That'll be really scary.

Edit: Warning: Wind is LOUD.
Frying Pan Tower lighthouse cam:

Make sure you mute your speakers before you start that feed.

Chaz wrote:

Make sure you mute your speakers before you start that feed.

Good point, that got me too.

Flag is starting to lose its stripes. That bottom red one is hanging on for dear life.

Now it looks like Pac Man!

For those who can't view

IMAGE(https://i.imgur.com/8ZOQE0A.png)

Stay safe everyone. Scary stuff. Looks like the Frying Pam cam was wiped out.

nothing to see here

PWAlessi wrote:

nothing to see here

Tag checks out.

This Weather Channel animation of what different storm surge heights looks like has been getting attention.

The hurricane made landfall this morning:

CNN wrote:

(CNN)Hurricane Florence has made landfall in North Carolina, but its crawling pace and overwhelming storm surges are setting up hours and hours of destruction and human suffering -- with dozens desperately awaiting rescue in one flooded city alone.

The Category 1 hurricane, with punishing winds and dumping 3 inches of rain an hour, made landfall at 7:15 a.m. ET near Wrightsville Beach, just east of Wilmington.

Looks like power outages are happening in NC:
USA Today: Hurricane Florence power outages top 500,000, could hit 3 million as storm unleashes fury

Our power went out at noon exactly, and came back on at about 3:10 PM.

Quintin_Stone wrote:

Our power went out at noon exactly, and came back on at about 3:10 PM.

You know that when the clocks flash "12:00" that it doesn't mean that's when they died, right?