[Discussion] Canadian Politics Catch-All

A place to discuss Canadian politics and more general political topics through a Canadian lens.

Oh boy....

Get ready for a Doug Ford Ontario.

Doug Ford wants free market for cannabis in Ontario

Lots of mixed up things in there. If he leans enough on the fiscal conservative side with dabblings of social stuff to keep his party happy then he's got a real shot.

In respect to the legalization of cannabis I'm not sure how honest his plan is especially considering the social side of his party having a hissy fit but I'm not sure anyone is too enthused about the current plan/rollout.

I'm quite concerned about his proposal to raise the personal exemption from $11,000 to $30,000. It's not a bad idea to help lower income Ontarioians, but the price tag on that tax cut is around $7-8 billion dollars a year. To pay for that you'd have to increase tax rates on middle and upper class Ontarioians. Do you think Doug Ford will raise taxes on middle and upper class Ontarioians? Yeah, that's what I thought. Instead he'll pay for his tax cut by slashing services and ballooning the deficit. I wouldn't call that leaning on the fiscal conservative side.

Oh, and that's not even taking into account the $4 billion he's going to lose by ditching the carbon tax.

Once again, my hope that Canada manages to put a conservative that is conservative financially (but not socially) has been flushed down the drain (or snorted up the nose in this case)

Hope Ontario is ready for either 4 more years of Wynne or (what would be much worse I think) the NDP.

My fear is however that enough of the Ford Nation around Toronto will vote for Ford that he will be elected.

Djinn wrote:

I'm quite concerned about his proposal to raise the personal exemption from $11,000 to $30,000. It's not a bad idea to help lower income Ontarioians, but the price tag on that tax cut is around $7-8 billion dollars a year. To pay for that you'd have to increase tax rates on middle and upper class Ontarioians. Do you think Doug Ford will raise taxes on middle and upper class Ontarioians? Yeah, that's what I thought. Instead he'll pay for his tax cut by slashing services and ballooning the deficit. I wouldn't call that leaning on the fiscal conservative side.

Oh, and that's not even taking into account the $4 billion he's going to lose by ditching the carbon tax.

The Canadian economists I follow on Twitter have been talking about the no provincial income tax for those making under $30k thing, and you wouldn't necessarily have to use the blunt instrument that is the basic personal amount to do it. This thread was a good discussion - For about $1 billion you can do it with a tax credit [which would need to be designed carefully to make sure you aren't making the marginal tax rate for people getting the credit astronomical] or increase the Ontario Tax Reduction threshold.

I really don't like the idea of using the basic personal amount as if it's a great tool for poverty alleviation - increases in it doesn't help those without income or with particularly low income and the greatest beneficiaries are those with the highest incomes in the top tax bracket.

The devil's in the details of course, but it's a decent policy idea if you aren't using the BPA. It's something I could have seen the NDP or Liberals proposing. Not as good as say, increasing the provincial portion of the HST credit (which would also help those with no incomes).

But if I lived in Ontario I doubt there would be enough good policy ideas out there to get me to vote for a Ford-led party.

Djinn wrote:

I'm quite concerned about his proposal to raise the personal exemption from $11,000 to $30,000. It's not a bad idea to help lower income Ontarioians, but the price tag on that tax cut is around $7-8 billion dollars a year. To pay for that you'd have to increase tax rates on middle and upper class Ontarioians. Do you think Doug Ford will raise taxes on middle and upper class Ontarioians? Yeah, that's what I thought. Instead he'll pay for his tax cut by slashing services and ballooning the deficit. I wouldn't call that leaning on the fiscal conservative side.

Oh, and that's not even taking into account the $4 billion he's going to lose by ditching the carbon tax.

Well if he slashes services that conservatives feel like are unnecessary that is going to fly with who he is trying to appeal to.

Or better yet some gorilla type math. The less taxes that stimulate the economy + no carbon tax that stimulates the economy + free market marijuana will make more in taxes then the liberal plan = magical world of balanced budget. Which then falls apart after all peer review.

Roke wrote:
Djinn wrote:

I'm quite concerned about his proposal to raise the personal exemption from $11,000 to $30,000. It's not a bad idea to help lower income Ontarioians, but the price tag on that tax cut is around $7-8 billion dollars a year. To pay for that you'd have to increase tax rates on middle and upper class Ontarioians. Do you think Doug Ford will raise taxes on middle and upper class Ontarioians? Yeah, that's what I thought. Instead he'll pay for his tax cut by slashing services and ballooning the deficit. I wouldn't call that leaning on the fiscal conservative side.

Oh, and that's not even taking into account the $4 billion he's going to lose by ditching the carbon tax.

The Canadian economists I follow on Twitter have been talking about the no provincial income tax for those making under $30k thing, and you wouldn't necessarily have to use the blunt instrument that is the basic personal amount to do it. This thread was a good discussion - For about $1 billion you can do it with a tax credit [which would need to be designed carefully to make sure you aren't making the marginal tax rate for people getting the credit astronomical] or increase the Ontario Tax Reduction threshold.

I really don't like the idea of using the basic personal amount as if it's a great tool for poverty alleviation - increases in it doesn't help those without income or with particularly low income and the greatest beneficiaries are those with the highest incomes in the top tax bracket.

The devil's in the details of course, but it's a decent policy idea if you aren't using the BPA. It's something I could have seen the NDP or Liberals proposing. Not as good as say, increasing the provincial portion of the HST credit (which would also help those with no incomes).

But if I lived in Ontario I doubt there would be enough good policy ideas out there to get me to vote for a Ford-led party.

I'm 100% for raising the BPA and making up the difference at higher tax brackets. What exact BPA and which higher tax brackets is the question.

I think why this will become a major election point is Ford is going to try and win over small businesses by accusing the Liberals of forcing them to shoulder the brunt with the higher minimum wage. Thing is the PCs will be kinda right. I'm for a higher minimum wage but how it was rolled out (and is still going up) is easy politics to pick on. Staggered increase + tax cuts for people at the bottom would been much easier to swallow.

I think the problem with tax credits is you're just adding more complexity to the process. Unless I'm misinterpreting something but that Twitter thread is hella confusing.

So it happened.

Who's drinking?

I never want to see a prairie province referred to as "Canada's Alabama" again.

Conventional Westminster wisdom would have you believe caucus will moderate the worst of Ford but in the UK Corbyn has showed caucus has a weak hand when a populist leader is elected in an American-style leadership election without caucus support and that leader actually winning an election is a whole nother kettle of fish. The worst they can do is boot Ford out as leader at which point he runs in the leadership campaign to replace him and wins and you're back to square one.

Parties holding leadership elections is the weakest part of our democracy - it completely kills what's traditionally an important part of accountability.

jowner wrote:

So it happened.

Who's drinking?

I've been thinking about this John Oliver clip all day.

It will be interesting to see what of the promises are walked back.

Maybe I'm being naive but I'm assuming the party as a whole were fine with Ford saying anything and worrying about it later.

What I am tired of is people being surprised. After 15 years of mediocre government and a very bleak financial situation for such a rich area what did people expect?

A plastic bag blowing in the wind could of been the leader of the right leaning party and it would of been the same result.

I was realistically hoping for a PC minority government with NDP opposition. Idealistically an NDP win, but I didn’t think that really had a chance of happening.

Liberals currently have 7 seats with I think one riding left to report. So what are the consequences of them losing official party status?

Strewth wrote:

I was realistically hoping for a PC minority government with NDP opposition. Idealistically an NDP win, but I didn’t think that really had a chance of happening.

Liberals currently have 7 seats with I think one riding left to report. So what are the consequences of them losing official party status?

If I'm not mistaken just funding.

The federal PCs went through the same thing.

Besides that major soul searching. Admission of guilt that they were so bad that they got Doug Ford elected?

Doug Ford could make an exception for the Liberals and waive the eight seat requirement. He wouldn't do it out of the goodness of his heart, but to hurt the NDP. Also, if the Liberals win a single by-election they regain official party status, so I wouldn't worry about the Liberals too much. This does mean that Wynne is stuck in her seat for at least the next four years though.

jowner wrote:

What I am tired of is people being surprised. After 15 years of mediocre government and a very bleak financial situation for such a rich area what did people expect?

A plastic bag blowing in the wind could of been the leader of the right leaning party and it would of been the same result.

Yeah, some people are trying to portray this as evidence of Trumpism coming to Canada, which is ridiculous when you consider Doug Ford was handed a PC party win on a platter and the only thing he managed to do over the last 4 months was lower the support rating it had with Patrick Brown at the helm.

Still a little disappointing that not too many people get turned off by someone who manages to come off as an arrogant know-it-all while at the same time making it clear his brain is vacant but what are you going to do?

Not a surprising result, but I'm still sad and angry over it. Preparing for these next few years to suck mightily.

Roke wrote:

I never want to see a prairie province referred to as "Canada's Alabama" again.

Whichwhatwhen?

H.P. Lovesauce wrote:
Roke wrote:

I never want to see a prairie province referred to as "Canada's Alabama" again.

Whichwhatwhen?

It's a "joke", usually by people in Ontario who don't venture out of the 416 area code, remarking about Alberta, about how Alberta tends to elect conservative (by Canadian standards) politicians.

Front page of the Globe & Mail when Alison Redford (who wasn't any different on policy than any of her PC leader predecessors going all the way back to post-cut Ralph Klein) became Premier of Alberta:

IMAGE(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-R1ylKYLV8sQ/Totea5IdIVI/AAAAAAAAAKk/0kbUma4UtWA/s1600/Screen+shot+2011-10-04+at+1.28.18+PM.png)